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This article describes a novel series of classroom simulations for teaching Graham Allison’s (1971) three seminal models of foreign policy decision making (i.e., the Rational Actor Model, the Organizational Process Model, and the Bureaucratic Politics Model) and demonstrates the effectiveness of those simulations. The simulations utilize the commercially available board game, 13 Days: The Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962. The game is a close approximation of the Rational Actor Model. The author developed two additional rule variants to represent the Organizational Process Model and the Bureaucratic Politics Model. The effectiveness of the simulations was evaluated with both a survey and a quiz administered to a treatment section that experienced the simulations and a control section that did not. The results indicate that the simulations are effective pedagogical tools associated with higher student excitement and enjoyment of the material, higher quiz scores, and an increased ability to self-assess understanding of the material.
To investigate how to recruit patients rigosrously in general practice for trials based on symptoms as predefined inclusion criteria rather than a well-defined diagnosis. We used persistent physical symptoms (PPS) as a target condition.
Background:
Conducting randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in general practice is crucial for evidence-based decision-making and treatment in frontline healthcare. However, recruitment is often challenged in general practice because many patients have vaguely defined conditions, such as PPS.
Methods:
We used qualitative semi-structured interviews to explore the perspectives of general practitioners (GPs) on different recruitment scenarios, while paying particular attention to the logistics and feasibility in routine care. A total of 11 GPs from seven clinics were strategically recruited. The GPs were presented with one recruitment scenario (pre-consultation screening) and encouraged to suggest other scenarios. We conducted a thematic framework analysis of the interview material.
Findings:
To ensure valid intervention research, one predefined scenario was discussed, and three additional scenarios were co-created during the interviews: (1) opportunistic screening, (2) pre-consultation screening, (3) audit (retrospective and prospective), and (4) random sample screening of the practice population. These scenarios differ with respect to logistical complexity, comparability to daily clinical practice, and entailed selection bias. Every scenario requires individual adaptation and implementation support to be feasible in routine care in general practice. The present study provides approaches for rigorous primary care research based on RCTs for frequent and vaguely defined conditions, but it also highlights a need to develop research methods better suited to frontline healthcare interventions.
This article examines the diplomatic strategies of Revolutionary Guatemala between 1944 and 1951, situating them within the broader continental realignments that occurred at the onset of the Cold War. Contrary to prevailing interpretations that emphasize covert warfare or ideological rhetoric, it argues that Guatemala’s revolutionary governments pursued a deliberate, multilateral diplomatic agenda aimed at reshaping inter-American relations. Drawing on research in multiple archives in the Americas and Europe, the article demonstrates how Guatemala engaged in initiatives such as the nonrecognition of coup regimes, support for the Larreta Doctrine, and campaigns against Francoist Spain while forging alliances with Mexico, Venezuela, Cuba, and Southern Cone democracies. These efforts reveal both the agency and the limitations of states seeking to promote democracy amid shifting geopolitical pressures. By reframing Guatemala’s role, the article contributes to ongoing debates about Latin American agency, the contested nature of early Cold War alignments, and the evolution of inter-American diplomacy.
This article defends a new type of preferential hiring. Rather than compensating groups for past or present employment-related discrimination, it seeks to ensure that groups with disproportionate unemployment rates that are due significantly – but not necessarily wholly – to their members having relatively narrow competencies, such as autistic individuals and people with hearing loss, ADHD and lower education levels, are prioritized for jobs that match their abilities. After defending such competency-based preferential hiring based on its benefits for persons with narrower competencies and for societies more broadly, I address several criticisms, including concerns that this approach may be stigmatizing.
This study investigates the reading of novel morpho-syntactic forms, specifically gender-inclusive writing in French. Inclusive writing aims to address the generic use of the masculine form, which often encourages male mental representations over female or non-binary ones. The study focuses on contracted forms using the mid-dot, such as étudiant·e·s, which have become widespread in French despite ongoing public debate. Four experiments using eye-tracking and self-paced reading methods compared reading times for inclusive, masculine, and feminine forms. Experiment 1 found no robust difference in reading times between inclusive forms ending in “·e” and their feminine counterparts, suggesting familiarity with this form. Experiment 2 showed that inclusive forms ending in “·ne”, such as comédien·ne·s, were read more slowly than their feminine counterparts, possibly due to phonological effects. Experiment 3 tested highly pronounceable inclusive forms like auteur·rice·s, which were read more slowly initially, but this effect was short-lasting. Experiment 4 compared more or less pronounceable forms, such as chanteur·euse·s and chanteur·se·s, respectively, confirming that the degree of pronounceability affects reading times. Overall, the study concluded that the reading time for contracted inclusive forms depends on familiarity and the degree of pronounceability.
We use a sharp regression discontinuity design (RDD) to show that victories by women candidates in close House, Senate, and gubernatorial elections lead to an increase in female directors in firms located in the candidates’ districts. The causal effect is higher when the media coverage of the woman candidate is higher, when voter turnout is high, and when firms have more local directors and local institutional investors. The heterogeneous regression discontinuity (RD) effects suggest that electoral wins may influence local gender norms and firms’ board diversity through multiple channels, including conveying majority views on gender-related social norms, increasing exposure to exemplar women, and facilitating learning about women’s different but effective leadership styles. The evidence suggests a potential spillover effect from women’s political leadership to the corporate world.
Surface bubbles in the ocean are critical in moderating several fluxes between the atmosphere and the ocean. In this paper, we experimentally investigate the drainage and lifetime of surface bubbles in solutions containing surfactants and salts, subjected to turbulence in the air surrounding them modelling the wind above the ocean. We carefully construct a set-up allowing us to repeatably measure the mean lifetime of a series of surface bubbles, while varying the solution and the wind speed or humidity of the air. To that end, we show that renewing the surface layer is critical to avoid a change of the physical properties of the interface. We show that the drainage of the bubbles is well modelled by taking into account the outwards viscous flow and convective evaporation. The mean lifetime of surface bubbles in solutions containing no salt is controlled by evaporation and independent on surfactant concentration. When salt is added, the same scaling is valid only at high surfactant concentrations. At low concentrations, the lifetime is always smaller and independent of wind speed, owing to the presence of impurities triggering a thick bursting event. When the mean lifetime is controlled by evaporation, the probability density of the lifetime is very narrow around its mean, while when impurities are present, a broad distribution is observed.
During the 1960s, the Malaysian prime minister, Tunku Abdul Rahman, struggled to establish the ‘Muslim Commonwealth’, an organization of Muslim-dominated sovereign states. This international programme for Muslim unity was particularly significant because it offered an opportunity for an unexpected player from outside the Islamic heartlands of the Middle East and South Asia to seize the leadership of the global religious community. This article recovers the project’s genealogy, objectives, and reception. In the global context of decolonization and the Cold War, the Tunku looked to the British-led Commonwealth of Nations to model this pan-Islamic institution in an attempt to promote cooperation, development, and peace among Muslims. He deployed a range of idioms to broaden the appeal of the Muslim Commonwealth, drawing from different intellectual genealogies and from an international circuit of ideas prevalent during decolonization. The eventual failure of the Tunku’s project exposes the hierarchies and rivalries in South–South relations during the decade and reveals how Malaysian-led pan-Islamism remained bound to the post-colonial condition of the nation-state.
The limbic system is a brain structure involved in emotional regulation. Since nutritional interventions in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants may be associated with measurable differences in brain structure and function, we designed this prospective study to evaluate the impact of early nutritional support in VLBW infants on the volume of the regions that comprise the limbic system, as well as on the emotional and neuropsychological development of these infants. This is a prospective observational study of a historical cohort of children with a history of prematurity. Seventy-four preterm infants, with a mean age of 11·1 (sd 2·9) years, underwent neuropsychological assessment using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children and functional MRI (fMRI). We recorded the nutritional intake during the first week of the neonatal period, as well as data related to neonatal morbidity. The association between the results of the brain structural analysis, psychometrics variables and nutritional intake was determined using simple and multivariate linear regression adjusted for child age and BMI in the structural analysis of fMRI. Lipids intake was also associated with the volume of the left thalamus (b = 50·7; P = 0·014), the right thalamus (b = 47·4; P = 0·018) and the left nucleus accumbens (b = 5·02; P = 0·031). We conclude that lipids intake in the first week of life in VLBW newborns is associated with the volume of various structures of the limbic system, namely the thalamus and the nucleus accumbens.
We present a new way to control the unfolding of definitions in dependent type theory. Traditionally, proof assistants require users to fix whether each definition will or will not be unfolded in the remainder of a development; unfolding definitions is often necessary in order to reason about them, but an excess of unfolding can result in brittle proofs and intractably large proof goals. In our system, definitions are by default not unfolded, but users can selectively unfold them in a local manner. We justify our mechanism by means of elaboration to a core theory with extension types – a connective first introduced in the context of homotopy type theory – and by establishing a normalization theorem for our core calculus. We have implemented controlled unfolding in the proof assistant, inspiring an independent implementation in Agda.
This article traces the history of how two generations of US archaeologists navigated their relationship with the Guatemalan government, from the Jorge Ubico dictatorship in the 1930s through the democratic opening of the 1940s and 1950s and the subsequent CIA-sponsored coup. Critiques of modern archaeology have focused on the discipline’s history of ideological and material collusion with different projects of US and European imperialism in the Global South. While the archaeologists discussed here benefited from US hegemony in the region, their own correspondence reflects an ambivalent relationship to formal frameworks of international law and a desire to function as autonomous nonstate actors. Rather than reflecting the political context of a given moment, the archaeologists’ behavior was often determined by a generations-old professional culture based on pragmatism and collective entitlement to the control of antiquities.
This paper documents a new, unique annual database of global wine markets covering 1835–2023. The database expands enormously the opportunities for conducting studies on national and global wine production, consumption and trade from an historical and comparative perspective for the world as a whole and for most relevant countries. The combination of this basic information with other economic variables such as real GDP, population, total merchandise trade, total crop area, and the consumption of other alcoholic drinks has enabled us to generate myriad derived variables that are helpful for comparative analyses as well as for studying the two waves of globalization.
We present three-dimensional velocity gradient statistics from turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection experiments in a horizontally extended cell of aspect ratio 25, a paradigm for mesoscale convection with its organisation into large-scale patterns. The Rayleigh number ${\textit{Ra}}$ ranges from $3.7 \times 10^5$ to $4.8 \times 10^6$, the Prandtl number ${\textit{Pr}}$ from 5 to 7.1. Spatio-temporally resolved volumetric data are reconstructed from moderately dense Lagrangian particle tracking measurements. All nine components of the velocity gradient tensor from the experiments show good agreement with those from direct numerical simulations, both conducted at ${\textit{Ra}} = 1 \times 10^6$ and ${\textit{Pr}} = 6.6$. As expected, with increasing ${\textit{Ra}}$, the flow in the bulk approaches isotropic conditions in the horizontal plane. The focus of our analysis is on non-Gaussian velocity gradient statistics. We demonstrate that statistical convergence of derivative moments up to the sixth order is achieved. Specifically, we examine the probability density functions (PDFs) of components of the velocity gradient tensor, vorticity components, kinetic energy dissipation and local enstrophy at different heights in the bottom half of the cell. The probability of high-amplitude derivatives increases from the bulk to the bottom plate. A similar trend is observed with increasing ${\textit{Ra}}$ at fixed height. Both indicate enhanced small-scale intermittency of the velocity field. We also determine derivative skewness and flatness. The PDFs of the derivatives with respect to the horizontal coordinates are found to be more symmetric than the ones with respect to the vertical coordinate. The conditional statistical analysis of the velocity derivatives with respect to up-/down-welling regions and the rest did not display significant difference, most probably due to the moderate Rayleigh numbers. Furthermore, doubly logarithmic plots of the PDFs of normalised energy dissipation and local enstrophy at all heights show that the left tails follow slopes of 3 / 2 and 1 / 2, respectively, in agreement with numerical results. In general, the left tails of the dissipation and local enstrophy distributions show higher probability values with increasing proximity towards the plate, in comparison with those in the bulk.
This paper discusses the benefits of prose and free composition following the implementation of both styles in Year 7 Latin classrooms. While prose composition is an optional feature in GCSE and A Level exams in the UK, free composition is rarely part of Latin teaching in the UK – and yet it can have benefits for students equal to or exceeding those of prose composition. Any composition is a useful diagnostic tool for grammar, but free composition seems a more enjoyable and creative experience for students. For this research, I experimented with both styles of composition and observed the teaching implications as well as the students’ reception of both.
Avoidant/restrictive food intake disorder (ARFID) leads to faltering growth and psychosocial impairment. Three phenotypes can co-occur: fear of aversive consequences of eating (ARFID-fear phenotype), sensory sensitivity, and lack of interest in eating/food. We hypothesized that youth with ARFID, especially ARFID-fear phenotype, would show hyperactivation of fear-related regions in response to ARFID-specific fear images, compared to healthy controls (HC), and activation of these regions would positively correlate with ARFID fear severity.
Methods
Youth (N=103: 76 ARFID, including 20 ARFID-fear phenotype; 27 HC) underwent functional MRI scanning while viewing ARFID-specific fear (e.g. vomiting, choking) versus neutral images. We compared blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) response in fear-related region of interests (ROI; e.g. amygdala, hippocampus, insula) between ARFID and ARFID-fear phenotype versus HC. We evaluated the association between brain response and ARFID fear severity in ARFID-fear phenotype.
Results
Across individuals, there was a robust bilateral amygdala response to ARFID-specific fear versus neutral images. Compared to HC, ARFID-fear phenotype showed a greater insula response to ARFID-specific fear versus neutral images (p=0.049). There were no other group differences and no significant relationships between BOLD response and ARFID fear severity in ARFID-fear phenotype.
Conclusions
ARFID-specific fear images elicit amygdala responses across individuals, with greater activation in the insula only in ARFID-fear phenotype versus HC. These findings validate the ARFID-specific fear paradigm and highlight the intriguing possibility that, in the ARFID-fear phenotype, universally feared experiences such as choking and vomiting serve as the unconditioned stimulus in developing ARFID and may partially be mediated by the insular cortex.
We determine unsteady time-periodic flow perturbations that are optimal for enhancing the time-averaged rate of heat transfer between hot and cold walls (i.e. the Nusselt number Nu), under the constraint of fixed flow power (Pe$^2$, where Pe is the Péclet number). The unsteady flows are perturbations of previously computed optimal steady flows and are given by eigenmodes of the Hessian matrix of Nu, the matrix of second derivatives with respect to amplitudes of flow mode coefficients. Positive eigenvalues of the Hessian correspond to increases in Nu by unsteady flows, and occur at $Pe\geqslant 10^{3.5}$ and within a band of flow periods $\tau \sim Pe^{-1}$. For $\tau {\textit{Pe}}\leqslant 10^{0.5}$, the optimal flows are chains of vortices that move along the walls or along eddies enclosed by flow branches near the walls. At larger $\tau {\textit{Pe}}$, the vorticity distributions are often more complex and extend farther from the walls. The heat flux is enhanced at locations on the walls near the unsteady vorticity. We construct an iterative time-spectral solver for the unsteady temperature field, and find increases in Nu of up to 7 % at moderate-to-large perturbation amplitudes.
Stereotypes about groups are commonly measured by asking participants to rate the groups on a scale. However, the percentage of participants who stereotype a group can be affected by the order in which participants are asked to rate the groups. Data from a randomized experiment in the American National Election Studies 2022 Pilot Study indicated that a group was more frequently positively stereotyped relative to another group when the group was asked about first in the pair of groups, compared to when the other group in the pair was asked about first. Researchers are therefore advised to randomize the order of groups in a stereotype battery to evenly spread this ordering effect across groups and are also advised to design stereotype items to minimize this ordering effect.
Ovsyannikov equations describe long-wavelength dynamics of nonlinear waves in two-layer shallow water systems. We suggest their simple generalisations which model qualitatively dispersive properties of such systems. These generalised equations are completely integrable by the known methods of nonlinear physics and we present their periodic and soliton solutions. The theory is illustrated by concrete examples.