The glacial history of northeast Siberia is poorly understood compared with other high-latitude regions. Using 10Be and 26Al exposure dating together with remote sensing, we have investigated the glacial history of a remote, formerly glaciated valley in the Tas-Kystabyt Range of the Chersky Mountains in central northeast Siberia. Based on measurements from moraine boulders and bedrock samples, we find evidence for deglaciation of the valley 45.6 ± 3.4 ka ago, that is during the peak of Marine Isotope Stage 3. Satellite imagery of the range reveals at least two generations of moraines in other nearby valleys, indicating that multiple stages of glaciation took place across the Tas-Kystabyt Range. Based on calculated equilibrium-line altitudes, we speculate that the outer set of moraines is linked to the 45.6 ± 3.4 ka deglaciation event identified by our dating, while the inner generation of moraines is associated with a younger glaciation event, possibly the last glacial maximum (LGM). Thus, our results reaffirm current impressions that the maximum ice extent during the last glacial cycle was reached before the global LGM in northeast Siberia.

Political scientists regularly rely on a selection-on-observables assumption to identify causal effects of interest. Once a causal effect has been identified in this way, a wide variety of estimators can, in principle, be used to consistently estimate the effect of interest. While these estimators are all justified by appeals to the same causal identification assumptions, they often differ greatly in how they make use of the data at hand. For instance, methods based on regression rely on an explicit model of the outcome variable but do not explicitly model the treatment assignment process, whereas methods based on propensity scores explicitly model the treatment assignment process but do not explicitly model the outcome variable. Understanding the tradeoffs between estimation methods is complicated by these seemingly fundamental differences. In this paper we seek to rectify this problem. We do so by clarifying how most estimators of causal effects that are justified by an appeal to a selection-on-observables assumption are all special cases of a general weighting estimator. We then explain how this commonality provides for diagnostics that allow for meaningful comparisons across estimation methods—even when the methods are seemingly very different. We illustrate these ideas with two applied examples.

Recent changes to US research funding are having far-reaching consequences that imperil the integrity of science and the provision of care to vulnerable populations. Resisting these changes, the BJPsych Portfolio reaffirms its commitment to publishing mental science and advancing psychiatric knowledge that improves the mental health of one and all.

The First Large Absorption Survey in H i (FLASH) is a large-area radio survey for neutral hydrogen in and around galaxies in the intermediate redshift range $0.4\lt z\lt1.0$, using the 21-cm H i absorption line as a probe of cold neutral gas. The survey uses the ASKAP radio telescope and will cover 24,000 deg$^2$ of sky over the next five years. FLASH breaks new ground in two ways – it is the first large H i absorption survey to be carried out without any optical preselection of targets, and we use an automated Bayesian line-finding tool to search through large datasets and assign a statistical significance to potential line detections. Two Pilot Surveys, covering around 3000 deg$^2$ of sky, were carried out in 2019-22 to test and verify the strategy for the full FLASH survey. The processed data products from these Pilot Surveys (spectral-line cubes, continuum images, and catalogues) are public and available online. In this paper, we describe the FLASH spectral-line and continuum data products and discuss the quality of the H i spectra and the completeness of our automated line search. Finally, we present a set of 30 new H i absorption lines that were robustly detected in the Pilot Surveys, almost doubling the number of known H i absorption systems at $0.4\lt z\lt1$. The detected lines span a wide range in H i optical depth, including three lines with a peak optical depth $\tau\gt1$, and appear to be a mixture of intervening and associated systems. Interestingly, around two-thirds of the lines found in this untargeted sample are detected against sources with a peaked-spectrum radio continuum, which are only a minor (5–20%) fraction of the overall radio-source population. The detection rate for H i absorption lines in the Pilot Surveys (0.3 to 0.5 lines per 40 deg$^2$ ASKAP field) is a factor of two below the expected value. One possible reason for this is the presence of a range of spectral-line artefacts in the Pilot Survey data that have now been mitigated and are not expected to recur in the full FLASH survey. A future paper in this series will discuss the host galaxies of the H i absorption systems identified here.

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a severe neurodegenerative disorder characterized by prominent motor and non-motor (e.g., cognitive) abnormalities. Notwithstanding Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved treatments (e.g., L-dopa), most persons with PD do not adequately benefit from the FDA-approved treatments and treatment emergent adverse events are often reasons for discontinuation. To date, no current therapy for PD is disease modifying or curative. Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) are central nervous system (CNS) penetrant and have shown to be neuroprotective against oxidative stress, neuroinflammation, and insulin resistance, as well as promoting neuroplasticity. Preclinical evidence suggests that GLP-1RAs also attenuate the accumulation of α-synuclein. The cellular and molecular effects of GLP-1RAs provide a basis to hypothesize putative therapeutic benefit in individuals with PD. Extant preclinical and clinical trial evidence in PD provide preliminary evidence of clinically meaningful benefit in the cardinal features of PD. Herein, we synthesize extant preclinical and early-phase clinical evidence, suggesting that GLP-1RAs may be beneficial as a treatment and/or illness progression modification therapeutic in PD.

Spirometra is a genus of zoonotic cestodes with an ambiguous species-level taxonomic history. Previously, Spirometra mansonoides was considered the only species present in North America. However, recent molecular data revealed the presence of at least three distinct species in the USA: Spirometra sp. 2 and 3, and Spirometra mansoni. This study aimed to elucidate the diversity and potential host associations of Spirometra species among companion animals in the USA. Samples (N = 302) were examined from at least 13 host species, including mammals, amphibians and reptiles. Sample types included eggs isolated from faeces (n = 222), adult specimens (n = 71) and plerocercoids (n = 9) from 18 different states and 2 territories across the USA. Extracted genomic DNA was subjected to PCR targeting a fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) gene. Generated sequences (n = 136) were included in a phylogenetic analysis. Spirometra mansoni was detected in domestic cats (n = 76), dogs (n = 12), a White’s tree frog (n = 1), a Cuban knight anole (n = 1), a green iguana (n = 1) and a serval (n = 1) across 15 states and Puerto Rico. Spirometra sp. 2 was found only in dogs (n = 3) from Florida and Spirometra sp. 3 was found only in cats (n = 41) from 17 states. All plerocercoid samples were consistent with S. mansoni. The results confirm that at least three distinct Spirometra species are present and established in companion animals, such as dogs and cats, and likely are using various native and exotic species as paratenic hosts within the USA.

Objectives/Goals: Lung transplant is a life-saving surgery for patients with advanced lung diseases yet long-term survival remains poor. The clinical features and lung injury patterns of lung transplant recipients who die early versus those who survive longer term remain undefined. Here, we use cell-free DNA and rejection parameters to help elucidate this further. Methods/Study Population: Lung transplant candidacy prioritizes patients who have a high mortality risk within 2 years and will likely survive beyond 5 years. We stratified patients who died within 2 years of transplant as early death (n = 50) and those who survived past 5 years as long-term survivors (n = 53). Lung transplant recipients had serial blood collected as part of two prospective cohort studies. Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) was quantified using relative (% donor-derived cfDNA {%ddcfDNA}) and absolute (nuclear-derived {n-cfDNA}, mitochondrial-derived {mt-cfDNA}) measurements. As part of routine posttransplant clinical care, all patients underwent pulmonary function testing (PFT), surveillance bronchoscopy with bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), transbronchial biopsy (TBBx), and donor-specific antibody testing (DSA). Results/Anticipated Results: Over the first 2 years after transplant, the number of episodes of antibody-mediated rejection (p) Discussion/Significance of Impact: Clinically, early-death patients perform worse on routine surveillance PFTs and experience a worse degree of CLAD. These patients also have higher levels of cfDNA as quantified by n-cfDNA and mt-cfDNA. These results provide preliminary evidence that early-death patients have worse allograft rejection, dysfunction, and molecular injury.

We study how people solve the optimal stopping problem of buying an airline ticket. Over a set of problems, people were given 12 opportunities to buy a ticket ranging from 12 months before travel to 1 day before. The distributions from which prices were sampled changed over time, following patterns observed in industry analysis of flight ticket pricing. We characterize the optimal decision process in terms of a set of thresholds that set the maximum purchase price for each time point. In a behavioral analysis, we find that the average price people pay is above the optimal, that there is little evidence people learn over the sequence of problems, but that there are likely significant individual differences in the way people make decisions. In a model-based analysis, we propose a set of nine possible decision strategies, based on how purchasing probabilities change according to time and the price of the ticket. Using Bayesian latent-mixture methods, we infer the strategies used by the participants, finding that some use purely time-based strategies, while others also attend to the price of the tickets. We conclude by noting the limitations in the strategies as accounts of people's decision making, highlighting the need to consider sequential effects and other context effects on purchasing behavior.

In many experiments, particularly individual choice experiments, experimenters ask many questions to the subjects and use the random lottery incentive mechanism to give an incentive to the subjects. That is, the experimenter, at the end of the experiment, picks just one of the questions, plays out that question, and pays the subject on the basis of this one question. The idea is that subjects should separate the various questions and reply to each as if it were a separate question—in isolation from all the other questions in the experiment. This procedure is methodologically sound if the subjects behave in accordance with Expected Utility (EU) theory, since this theory says that the best procedure for the subjects is to separate the various questions. However, if there is any doubt as to whether the subjects obey EU theory, and particularly if the experiment is designed to test whether the behaviour of the subjects is in accordance with EU, this incentive mechanism is open to criticism. Indeed many referees use this argument against the research. The response that the subjects may not respect EU, yet still separate the various questions, is obviously open to objection and generally it is not clear whether this response is valid or not. There have been two direct tests of this separation hypothesis (by Starmer and Sugden (1991) and by Cubitt et al. (1998), which suggest that it is valid, but further evidence is required. This paper provides a further, stronger, test of this hypothesis: we confront the two stories—(1) that the subjects answer the various questions separately, and (2) that the subjects respond to the experiment as a whole—using experimental data from an experiment in which the random lottery incentive mechanism was used. Our analysis shows that it would appear that subjects do answer as if they were separating the questions. This should be considered reassuring for those experimenters who use the random lottery incentive mechanism.

Cannabis use is highly prevalent in people with schizophrenia and is related to adverse clinical outcomes, including relapse and hospitalization. However, the relationship between cannabis and suicide remains inconclusive. This study aimed to systematically review and meta-analyze the relationship between cannabis use and suicide-related outcomes in people with schizophrenia. A comprehensive search of Medline, Embase, and PsycINFO for cross-sectional, case-control, and longitudinal studies was conducted using search terms from database inception to November 2024 inclusive. Computation of odds ratios (ORs) and hazard ratios (HRs) was performed using random effects models with DerSimonian-Laird estimation. All studies were appraised for quality. We also evaluated heterogeneity, publication bias and performed sub-group analyses and meta-regression. Twenty-nine studies comprising 36 samples met eligibility criteria. Cannabis use was not associated with odds of suicide death or suicidal ideation but was associated with risks of suicide death (HR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.04 – 1.40) and odds of attempted suicide (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.16 – 1.68). While between-sample heterogeneity was moderate in analyses of attempted suicide (I2 = 39.6%, p = 0.03), there was no publication bias. Summary effects remained significant in most sub-groups, but just failed to reach significance in longitudinal studies of attempted suicide (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 0.97 – 1.68) and studies investigating first episode samples (OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 0.99 – 1.55). Cannabis use is significantly associated with some, but not all, suicide-related outcomes in people with schizophrenia. More work is needed to examine potential mechanisms of significant relationships.

We present the first results from a new backend on the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder, the Commensal Realtime ASKAP Fast Transient COherent (CRACO) upgrade. CRACO records millisecond time resolution visibility data, and searches for dispersed fast transient signals including fast radio bursts (FRB), pulsars, and ultra-long period objects (ULPO). With the visibility data, CRACO can localise the transient events to arcsecond-level precision after the detection. Here, we describe the CRACO system and report the result from a sky survey carried out by CRACO at 110-ms resolution during its commissioning phase. During the survey, CRACO detected two FRBs (including one discovered solely with CRACO, FRB 20231027A), reported more precise localisations for four pulsars, discovered two new RRATs, and detected one known ULPO, GPM J1839 $-$10, through its sub-pulse structure. We present a sensitivity calibration of CRACO, finding that it achieves the expected sensitivity of 11.6 Jy ms to bursts of 110 ms duration or less. CRACO is currently running at a 13.8 ms time resolution and aims at a 1.7 ms time resolution before the end of 2024. The planned CRACO has an expected sensitivity of 1.5 Jy ms to bursts of 1.7 ms duration or less and can detect $10\times$ more FRBs than the current CRAFT incoherent sum system (i.e. 0.5 $-$2 localised FRBs per day), enabling us to better constrain the models for FRBs and use them as cosmological probes.

Two studies were conducted in 2022 and 2023 near Rocky Mount and Clayton, NC, to determine the optimal granular ammonium sulfate (AMS) rate and application timing for pyroxasulfone-coated AMS. In the rate study, AMS rates included 161, 214, 267, 321, 374, 428, and 481 kg ha−1, equivalent to 34, 45, 56, 67, 79, 90, and 101 kg N ha−1, respectively. All rates were coated with pyroxasulfone at 118 g ai ha−1 and topdressed onto 5- to 7-leaf cotton. In the timing study, pyroxasulfone (118 g ai ha−1) was coated on AMS and topdressed at 321 kg ha−1 (67 kg N ha−1) onto 5- to 7-leaf, 9- to 11-leaf, and first bloom cotton. In both studies, weed control and cotton tolerance to pyroxasulfone-coated AMS were compared to pyroxasulfone applied POST and POST-directed. The check in both studies received non-herbicide-treated AMS (321 kg ha−1). Before treatment applications, all plots (including the check) were maintained weed-free with glyphosate and glufosinate. In both studies, pyroxasulfone applied POST was most injurious (8% to 16%), while pyroxasulfone-coated AMS resulted in ≤4% injury. Additionally, no differences in cotton lint yield were observed in either study. With the exception of the lowest rate of AMS (161 kg ha−1; 79%), all AMS rates coated with pyroxasulfone controlled Palmer amaranth ≥83%, comparably to pyroxasulfone applied POST (92%) and POST-directed (89%). In the timing study, the application method did not affect Palmer amaranth control; however, applications made at the mid- and late timings outperformed early applications. These results indicate that pyroxasulfone-coated AMS can control Palmer amaranth comparably to pyroxasulfone applied POST and POST-directed, with minimal risk of cotton injury. However, the application timing could warrant additional treatment to achieve adequate late-season weed control.

We propose a functional version of extended redundancy analysis that examines directional relationships among several sets of multivariate variables. As in extended redundancy analysis, the proposed method posits that a weighed composite of each set of exogenous variables influences a set of endogenous variables. It further considers endogenous and/or exogenous variables functional, varying over time, space, or other continua. Computationally, the method reduces to minimizing a penalized least-squares criterion through the adoption of a basis function expansion approach to approximating functions. We develop an alternating regularized least-squares algorithm to minimize this criterion. We apply the proposed method to real datasets to illustrate the empirical feasibility of the proposed method.