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Aerosol-cloud interactions contribute significant uncertainty to modern climate model predictions. Analysis of complex observed aerosol-cloud parameter relationships is a crucial piece of reducing this uncertainty. Here, we apply two machine learning methods to explore variability in in-situ observations from the NASA ACTIVATE mission. These observations consist of flights over the Western North Atlantic Ocean, providing a large repository of data including aerosol, meteorological, and microphysical conditions in and out of clouds. We investigate this dataset using principal component analysis (PCA), a linear dimensionality reduction technique, and an autoencoder, a deep learning non-linear dimensionality reduction technique. We find that we can reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space by more than a factor of 2 and verify that the deep learning method outperforms a PCA baseline by two orders of magnitude. Analysis in the low dimensional space of both these techniques reveals two consistent physically interpretable regimes—a low pollution regime and an in-cloud regime. Through this work, we show that unsupervised machine learning techniques can learn useful information from in-situ atmospheric observations and provide interpretable results of low-dimensional variability.
Peace is a hallmark of human societies. However, certain ant species engage in long-term intergroup resource sharing, which is remarkably similar to peace among human groups. We discuss how individual and group payoff distributions are affected by kinship, dispersal, and age structure; the challenges of diagnosing peace; and the benefits of comparing convergent complex behaviours in disparate taxa.
We compared dissociative seizure specific cognitive behavior therapy (DS-CBT) plus standardized medical care (SMC) to SMC alone in a randomized controlled trial. DS-CBT resulted in better outcomes on several secondary trial outcome measures at the 12-month follow-up point. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate putative treatment mechanisms.
Methods
We carried out a secondary mediation analysis of the CODES trial. 368 participants were recruited from the National Health Service in secondary / tertiary care in England, Scotland, and Wales. Sixteen mediation hypotheses corresponding to combinations of important trial outcomes and putative mediators were assessed. Twelve-month trial outcomes considered were final-month seizure frequency, Work and Social Adjustment Scale (WSAS), and the SF-12v2, a quality-of-life measure providing physical (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS) scores. Mediators chosen for analysis at six months (broadly corresponding to completion of DS-CBT) included: (a) beliefs about emotions, (b) a measure of avoidance behavior, (c) anxiety and (d) depression.
Results
All putative mediator variables except beliefs about emotions were found to be improved by DS-CBT. We found evidence for DS-CBT effect mediation for the outcome variables dissociative seizures (DS), WSAS and SF-12v2 MCS scores by improvements in target variables avoidance behavior, anxiety, and depression. The only variable to mediate the DS-CBT effect on the SF-12v2 PCS score was avoidance behavior.
Conclusions
Our findings largely confirmed the logic model underlying the development of CBT for patients with DS. Interventions could be additionally developed to specifically address beliefs about emotions to assess whether it improves outcomes.
Identifying youths most at risk to COVID-19-related mental illness is essential for the development of effective targeted interventions.
Aims
To compare trajectories of mental health throughout the pandemic in youth with and without prior mental illness and identify those most at risk of COVID-19-related mental illness.
Method
Data were collected from individuals aged 18–26 years (N = 669) from two existing cohorts: IMAGEN, a population-based cohort; and ESTRA/STRATIFY, clinical cohorts of individuals with pre-existing diagnoses of mental disorders. Repeated COVID-19 surveys and standardised mental health assessments were used to compare trajectories of mental health symptoms from before the pandemic through to the second lockdown.
Results
Mental health trajectories differed significantly between cohorts. In the population cohort, depression and eating disorder symptoms increased by 33.9% (95% CI 31.78–36.57) and 15.6% (95% CI 15.39–15.68) during the pandemic, respectively. By contrast, these remained high over time in the clinical cohort. Conversely, trajectories of alcohol misuse were similar in both cohorts, decreasing continuously (a 15.2% decrease) during the pandemic. Pre-pandemic symptom severity predicted the observed mental health trajectories in the population cohort. Surprisingly, being relatively healthy predicted increases in depression and eating disorder symptoms and in body mass index. By contrast, those initially at higher risk for depression or eating disorders reported a lasting decrease.
Conclusions
Healthier young people may be at greater risk of developing depressive or eating disorder symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic. Targeted mental health interventions considering prior diagnostic risk may be warranted to help young people cope with the challenges of psychosocial stress and reduce the associated healthcare burden.
The Taita Falcon Falco fasciinucha is known to occur and breed at only a few locations in eastern and southern Africa and is currently listed as globally “Vulnerable” and “Critically Endangered” in South Africa. An accurate estimation of its conservation status is however hampered by a lack of data and understanding of the species’ habitat requirements and competitive interactions with congeners. Our aim was to address some of these knowledge gaps. We conducted cliff-nesting raptor surveys across a substantial area of the Mpumalanga/Limpopo escarpment in north-eastern South Africa and modelled habitat suitability for nesting Taita Falcons in relation to the proximity of conspecifics and a community of five other sympatric cliff-nesting raptor species, and in relation to a suite of biotic and abiotic environmental variables. Results suggested the location of Taita Falcon nest sites was negatively associated with distance to the nearest pair of conspecifics and the nearest pair of Lanner Falcons Falco biarmicus, and positively associated with tracts of intact, unfragmented forest and woodland around the base of the cliffs. Our results indicated that Taita Falcon and Lanner Falcon appeared to be responding in opposite ways to a directional change in environmental conditions. This response appeared to be detrimental to Taita Falcon and beneficial to Lanner Falcon. Furthermore, the degradation and destruction of Afrotropical woodland and forest is a documented and ongoing reality, both locally and across much of the Taita Falcon’s global distribution. We argue that our findings are sufficient to justify uplisting Taita Falcon to globally “Endangered”.
As zoos have evolved, conservation and conservation education have become primary tasks. To achieve the maximum educational impact, zoos are enriching animal habitats so that their occupants display a wide range of activities that are attractive to the visitor, and unattractive activities are eliminated and reduced. Because public perceptions of the attractiveness of animal behaviour may not coincide with welfare realities, there can be a tension between the requirements of desirable exhibits and those of maximally promoting animal welfare. Zoo animals differ from domesticated animals in human care in several respects. These differences are discussed and set in the context of the sometimes competing aims of enhancing welfare and promoting educational exhibits. An outline history of zoo enrichment programmes suggests that the subject is in need of systematization. The range of data available for improving zoo exhibit designs, and the lives of zoo animals, is reviewed. It is concluded that fundamental data on the environmental needs of many of the wild animals maintained in zoos are deficient in many important areas. Consequently, there is an urgent need to increase such research. Zoo habitats could be excellent places for such fundamental studies, which would feed back into field studies. At the same time, habitat enrichment in zoos cannot await such research and must proceed pragmatically using the range of insights described in this paper. In particular, functional substitution is advocated as a means of enrichment wherever this can be made acceptable to the broad public; its educational value in combatting naive anthropomorphism is stressed. Naturalism in enrichment is criticized as reinforcing anthropomorhisms, but is desirable for promoting global habitat conservation.
To assess preventability of hospital-onset bacteremia and fungemia (HOB), we developed and evaluated a structured rating guide accounting for intrinsic patient and extrinsic healthcare-related risks.
Design:
HOB preventability rating guide was compared against a reference standard expert panel.
Participants:
A 10-member panel of clinical experts was assembled as the standard of preventability assessment, and 2 physician reviewers applied the rating guide for comparison.
Methods:
The expert panel independently rated 82 hypothetical HOB scenarios using a 6-point Likert scale collapsed into 3 categories: preventable, uncertain, or not preventable. Consensus was defined as concurrence on the same category among ≥70% experts. Scenarios without consensus were deliberated and followed by a second round of rating.
Two reviewers independently applied the rating guide to adjudicate the same 82 scenarios in 2 rounds, with interim revisions. Interrater reliability was evaluated using the κ (kappa) statistic.
Results:
Expert panel consensus criteria were met for 52 scenarios (63%) after 2 rounds.
After 2 rounds, guide-based rating matched expert panel consensus in 40 of 52 (77%) and 39 of 52 (75%) cases for reviewers 1 and 2, respectively. Agreement rates between the 2 reviewers were 84% overall (κ, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64–0.88]) and 87% (κ, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.65–0.94) for the 52 scenarios with expert consensus.
Conclusions:
Preventability ratings of HOB scenarios by 2 reviewers using a rating guide matched expert consensus in most cases with moderately high interreviewer reliability. Although diversity of expert opinions and uncertainty of preventability merit further exploration, this is a step toward standardized assessment of HOB preventability.
There are significant drug–drug interactions between human immunodeficiency virus antiretroviral therapy and intranasal steroids, leading to high serum concentrations of iatrogenic steroids and subsequently Cushing's syndrome.
Method
All articles in the literature on cases of intranasal steroid and antiretroviral therapy interactions were reviewed. Full-length manuscripts were analysed and the relevant data were extracted.
Results
A literature search and further cross-referencing yielded a total of seven reports on drug–drug interactions of intranasal corticosteroids and human immunodeficiency virus protease inhibitors, published between 1999 and 2019.
Conclusion
The use of potent steroids metabolised via CYP3A4, such as fluticasone and budesonide, are not recommended for patients taking ritonavir or cobicistat. Mometasone should be used cautiously with ritonavir because of pharmacokinetic similarities to fluticasone. There was a delayed onset of symptoms in many cases, most likely due to the relatively lower systemic bioavailability of intranasal fluticasone.
This study consisting of six field experiments was conducted in 2018 and 2019 to evaluate the tolerance of four corn hybrids (P9998AM, P9840AM, DKC42-60RIB, and DKC43-47RIB) to the tank mix of tolpyralate + atrazine with a commercial glyphosate formulation. At 1 wk after application (WAA), two corn hybrids (P9998AM and P9840AM) exhibited more injury from tolpyralate + atrazine (2× rate) applied alone and in combination with glyphosate than DKC42-60RIB and DKC43-47RIB; however, all corn hybrids responded similarly with respect to visible injury 2, 4, and 8 WAA, stand loss, and yield. Application of tolpyralate + atrazine or glyphosate + tolpyralate + atrazine at the 2× rate caused greater corn injury (up to 27%) than tolpyralate + atrazine or glyphosate + tolpyralate + atrazine at the 1× rate (up to 8%) at 1 WAA. The addition of commercial glyphosate with tolpyralate + atrazine did not enhance injury symptoms. Results of this study show that there is a wide margin of corn safety with tolpyralate + atrazine applied alone and in combination with a commercial formulation of glyphosate.
Tolpyralate is a new 4-hydroxyphenyl-pyruvate dioxygenase (HPPD)–inhibiting herbicide for weed control in corn. Previous research has reported efficacy of tolpyralate + atrazine on several annual grass and broadleaf weed species; however, no studies have evaluated weed control of tolpyralate + atrazine depending on time-of-day (TOD) of application. Six field experiments were conducted over a 2-yr period (2018, 2019) near Ridgetown, ON, to determine if there is an effect of TOD of application on tolpyralate + atrazine efficacy on common annual grass and broadleaf weeds. An application was made at 3-h intervals beginning at 06:00 h with the last application at 24:00 h. There was a slight TOD effect on velvetleaf, pigweed species, and common ragweed control with tolpyralate + atrazine; however, the magnitude of change throughout the day was ≤3% at 2, 4, or 8 wk after application (WAA). There was no effect of TOD of tolpyralate + atrazine on the control of lambsquarters, barnyardgrass, and green foxtail. All weed species were controlled ≥88% at 8 WAA. There was no effect of TOD of tolpyralate + atrazine application on corn yield. Results of this study show no evidence of a TOD effect on weed control efficacy with tolpyralate + atrazine.
To examine factors that influence decision-making, preferences, and plans related to advance care planning (ACP) and end-of-life care among persons with dementia and their caregivers, and examine how these may differ by race.
Design:
Cross-sectional survey.
Setting:
13 geographically dispersed Alzheimer’s Disease Centers across the United States.
Participants:
431 racially diverse caregivers of persons with dementia.
Measurements:
Survey on “Care Planning for Individuals with Dementia.”
Results:
The respondents were knowledgeable about dementia and hospice care, indicated the person with dementia would want comfort care at the end stage of illness, and reported high levels of both legal ACP (e.g., living will; 87%) and informal ACP discussions (79%) for the person with dementia. However, notable racial differences were present. Relative to white persons with dementia, African American persons with dementia were reported to have a lower preference for comfort care (81% vs. 58%) and lower rates of completion of legal ACP (89% vs. 73%). Racial differences in ACP and care preferences were also reflected in geographic differences. Additionally, African American study partners had a lower level of knowledge about dementia and reported a greater influence of religious/spiritual beliefs on the desired types of medical treatments. Notably, all respondents indicated that more information about the stages of dementia and end-of-life health care options would be helpful.
Conclusions:
Educational programs may be useful in reducing racial differences in attitudes towards ACP. These programs could focus on the clinical course of dementia and issues related to end-of-life care, including the importance of ACP.
At GE Research, we are combining “physics” with artificial intelligence and machine learning to advance manufacturing design, processing, and inspection, turning innovative technologies into real products and solutions across our industrial portfolio. This article provides a snapshot of how this physical plus digital transformation is evolving at GE.
Neck dissection is associated with post-operative shoulder dysfunction in a substantial number of patients, affecting quality of life and return to work. There is no current UK national practice regarding physiotherapy after neck dissection.
Method
Nine regional centres were surveyed to determine their standard physiotherapy practice pre- and post-neck dissection, and to determine pre-emptive physiotherapy for any patients.
Results
Eighty-nine per cent of centres never arranged any pre-emptive physiotherapy for any patients. Thirty-three per cent of centres offered routine in-patient physiotherapy after surgery. No centres offered out-patient physiotherapy for all patients regardless of symptoms. Seventy-eight per cent offered physiotherapy for patients with any symptoms, with 11 per cent offering physiotherapy for those with severe dysfunction only. Eleven per cent of centres never offered physiotherapy for any dysfunction.
Conclusion
The provision of physiotherapy is most commonly reactive rather than proactive, and usually driven by patient request. There is little evidence of pre-arranged physiotherapy for patients to treat or prevent shoulder dysfunction in the UK.
Extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis (TB) poses a threat to public health due to its complicated, expensive and often unsuccessful treatment. A cluster of three XDR TB cases was detected among foreign medical students of a Romanian university. The contact investigations included tuberculin skin testing or interferon gamma release assay, chest X-ray, sputum smear microscopy, culture, drug susceptibility testing, genotyping and whole-genome sequencing (WGS), and were addressed to students, personnel of the university, family members or other close contacts of the cases. These investigations increased the total number of cases to seven. All confirmed cases shared a very similar WGS profile. Two more cases were epidemiologically linked, but no laboratory confirmation exists. Despite all the efforts done, the source of the outbreak was not identified, but the transmission was controlled. The investigation was conducted by a team including epidemiologists and microbiologists from five countries (Finland, Israel, Romania, Sweden and the UK) and from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Our report shows how countries can collaborate to control the spread of XDR TB by exchanging information about cases and their contacts to enable identification of additional cases and transmission and to perform the source investigation.
Many novel therapeutic options for depression exist that are either not mentioned in clinical guidelines or recommended only for use in highly specialist services. The challenge faced by clinicians is when it might be appropriate to consider such ‘non-standard’ interventions. This analysis proposes a framework to aid this decision.
Declaration of interest
In the past 3 years R.H.M.W. has received support for research, expenses to attend conferences and fees for lecturing and consultancy work (including attending advisory boards) from various pharmaceutical companies including Astra Zeneca, Cyberonics, Eli Lilly, Janssen, LivaNova, Lundbeck, MyTomorrows, Otsuka, Pfizer, Roche, Servier, SPIMACO and Sunovion. D.M.B.C. has received fees from LivaNova for attending an advisory board. In the past 3 years A.J.C. has received fees for lecturing from Astra Zeneca and Lundbeck; fees for consulting from LivaNova, Janssen and Allergan; and research grant support from Lundbeck.
In the past 3 years A.C. has received fees for lecturing from pharmaceutical companies namely Lundbeck and Sunovion. In the past 3 years A.L.M. has received support for attending seminars and fees for consultancy work (including advisory board) from Medtronic Inc and LivaNova. R.M. holds joint research grants with a number of digital companies that investigate devices for depression including Alpha-stim, Big White Wall, P1vital, Intel, Johnson and Johnson and Lundbeck through his mindTech and CLAHRC EM roles. M.S. is an associate at Blueriver Consulting providing intelligence to NHS organisations, pharmaceutical and devices companies. He has received honoraria for presentations and advisory boards with Lundbeck, Eli Lilly, URGO, AstraZeneca, Phillips and Sanofi and holds shares in Johnson and Johnson. In the past 3 years P.R.A.S. has received support for research, expenses to attend conferences and fees for lecturing and consultancy work (including attending an advisory board) from life sciences companies including Corcept Therapeutics, Indivior and LivaNova. In the past 3 years P.S.T. has received consultancy fees as an advisory board member from the following companies: Galen Limited, Sunovion Pharmaceuticals Europe Ltd, myTomorrows and LivaNova. A.H.Y. has undertaken paid lectures and advisory boards for all major pharmaceutical companies with drugs used in affective and related disorders and LivaNova. He has received funding for investigator initiated studies from AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly, Lundbeck and Wyeth.
Accurate and reproducible patient positioning is a critical step in radiotherapy for breast cancer. This has seen the use of permanent skin markings becoming standard practice in many centres. Permanent skin markings may have a negative impact on long-term cosmetic outcome, which may in turn, have psychological implications in terms of body image. The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility of using a semi-permanent tattooing device for the administration of skin marks for breast radiotherapy set-up.
Materials and methods
This was designed as a phase II double-blinded randomised-controlled study comparing our standard permanent tattoos with the Precision Plus Micropigmentation (PPMS) device method. Patients referred for radical breast radiotherapy were eligible for the study. Each study participant had three marks applied using a randomised combination of the standard permanent and PPMS methods and was blinded to the type of each mark. Follow up was at routine appointments until 24 months post radiotherapy. Participants and a blind assessor were invited to score the visibility of each tattoo at each follow-up using a Visual Analogue Scale. Tattoo scores at each time point and change in tattoo scores at 24 months were analysed by a general linear model using the patient as a fixed effect and the type of tattoo (standard or research) as covariate. A simple questionnaire was used to assess radiographer feedback on using the PPMS.
Results
In total, 60 patients were recruited to the study, of which 55 were available for follow-up at 24 months. Semi-permanent tattoos were more visible at 24 months than the permanent tattoos. Semi-permanent tattoos demonstrated a greater degree of fade than the permanent tattoos at 24 months (final time point) post completion of radiotherapy. This was not statistically significant, although it was more apparent for the patient scores (p=0·071) than the blind assessor scores (p=0·27). No semi-permanent tattoos required re-marking before the end of radiotherapy and no adverse skin reactions were observed.
Conclusion
The PPMS presents a safe and feasible alternative to our permanent tattooing method. An extended period of follow-up is required to fully assess the extent of semi-permanent tattoo fade.
The livestock sector is one of the fastest growing subsectors of the agricultural economy and, while it makes a major contribution to global food supply and economic development, it also consumes significant amounts of natural resources and alters the environment. In order to improve our understanding of the global environmental impact of livestock supply chains, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has developed the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM). The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of GLEAM. Specifically, it explains the model architecture, methods and functionality, that is the types of analysis that the model can perform. The model focuses primarily on the quantification of greenhouse gases emissions arising from the production of the 11 main livestock commodities. The model inputs and outputs are managed and produced as raster data sets, with spatial resolution of 0.05 decimal degrees. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model v1.0 consists of five distinct modules: (a) the Herd Module; (b) the Manure Module; (c) the Feed Module; (d) the System Module; (e) the Allocation Module. In terms of the modelling approach, GLEAM has several advantages. For example spatial information on livestock distributions and crops yields enables rations to be derived that reflect the local availability of feed resources in developing countries. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model also contains a herd model that enables livestock statistics to be disaggregated and variation in livestock performance and management to be captured. Priorities for future development of GLEAM include: improving data quality and the methods used to perform emissions calculations; extending the scope of the model to include selected additional environmental impacts and to enable predictive modelling; and improving the utility of GLEAM output.
Control of glyphosate-resistant (GR) horseweed in soybean with glyphosate (900 g ai ha−1) plus saflufenacil (25 gaiha−1) has been variable. The objective of this research was to determine the effect of GR horseweed height, density, and time of day (TOD) at application on saflufenacil plus glyphosate efficacy in soybean. All experiments were completed six times during a 2 yr period (2014, 2015) in fields previously confirmed with GR horseweed. Applications from 0900 to 2100 hours provided optimal control of GR horseweed 8 WAA. Soybean yield paralleled GR horseweed control with the highest yield of 3000kgha−1 at 1500 hours, and the lowest yield of 2400kgha−1 at 0600 hours. The height and density of GR horseweed at application had minimal effect on saflufenacil efficacy. Saflufenacil provided>99% control of GR horseweed when applied to small plants and low densities; however, control decreased to 95% when>25 cm tall, and to 96% in densities>800 plants m−2 at 6 WAA due to some plant regrowth. TOD of application had a greater influence on GR horseweed control with saflufenacil than height or density. To optimize control of GR horseweed, saflufenacil should be applied during daytime hours to small plants at low densities. Optimizing GR horseweed control minimizes weed seed return and weed interference.