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Ambient air pollution remains a global challenge, with adverse impacts on health and the environment. Addressing air pollution requires reliable data on pollutant concentrations, which form the foundation for interventions aimed at improving air quality. However, in many regions, including the United Kingdom, air pollution monitoring networks are characterized by spatial sparsity, heterogeneous placement, and frequent temporal data gaps, often due to issues such as power outages. We introduce a scalable data-driven supervised machine learning model framework designed to address temporal and spatial data gaps by filling missing measurements within the United Kingdom. The machine learning framework used is LightGBM, a gradient boosting algorithm based on decision trees, for efficient and scalable modeling. This approach provides a comprehensive dataset for England throughout 2018 at a 1 km2 hourly resolution. Leveraging machine learning techniques and real-world data from the sparsely distributed monitoring stations, we generate 355,827 synthetic monitoring stations across the study area. Validation was conducted to assess the model’s performance in forecasting, estimating missing locations, and capturing peak concentrations. The resulting dataset is of particular interest to a diverse range of stakeholders engaged in downstream assessments supported by outdoor air pollution concentration data for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), Ozone (O3), particulate matter with a diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10), particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 μm or less PM2.5, and sulphur dioxide (SO2), at a higher resolution than was previously possible.
Observational studies suggest that 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration is inversely associated with pain. However, findings from intervention trials are inconsistent. We assessed the effect of vitamin D supplementation on pain using data from a large, double-blind, population-based, placebo-controlled trial (the D-Health Trial). 21 315 participants (aged 60–84 years) were randomly assigned to a monthly dose of 60 000 IU vitamin D3 or matching placebo. Pain was measured using the six-item Pain Impact Questionnaire (PIQ-6), administered 1, 2 and 5 years after enrolment. We used regression models (linear for continuous PIQ-6 score and log-binomial for binary categorisations of the score, namely ‘some or more pain impact’ and ‘presence of any bodily pain’) to estimate the effect of vitamin D on pain. We included 20 423 participants who completed ≥1 PIQ-6. In blood samples collected from 3943 randomly selected participants (∼800 per year), the mean (sd) 25(OH)D concentrations were 77 (sd 25) and 115 (sd 30) nmol/l in the placebo and vitamin D groups, respectively. Most (76 %) participants were predicted to have 25(OH)D concentration >50 nmol/l at baseline. The mean PIQ-6 was similar in all surveys (∼50·4). The adjusted mean difference in PIQ-6 score (vitamin D cf placebo) was 0·02 (95 % CI (−0·20, 0·25)). The proportion of participants with some or more pain impact and with the presence of bodily pain was also similar between groups (both prevalence ratios 1·01, 95 % CI (0·99, 1·03)). In conclusion, supplementation with 60 000 IU of vitamin D3/month had negligible effect on bodily pain.
The first demonstration of laser action in ruby was made in 1960 by T. H. Maiman of Hughes Research Laboratories, USA. Many laboratories worldwide began the search for lasers using different materials, operating at different wavelengths. In the UK, academia, industry and the central laboratories took up the challenge from the earliest days to develop these systems for a broad range of applications. This historical review looks at the contribution the UK has made to the advancement of the technology, the development of systems and components and their exploitation over the last 60 years.
Conventional longitudinal behavioral genetic models estimate the relative contribution of genetic and environmental factors to stability and change of traits and behaviors. Longitudinal models rarely explain the processes that generate observed differences between genetically and socially related individuals. We propose that exchanges between individuals and their environments (i.e., phenotype–environment effects) can explain the emergence of observed differences over time. Phenotype–environment models, however, would require violation of the independence assumption of standard behavioral genetic models; that is, uncorrelated genetic and environmental factors. We review how specification of phenotype–environment effects contributes to understanding observed changes in genetic variability over time and longitudinal correlations among nonshared environmental factors. We then provide an example using 30 days of positive and negative affect scores from an all-female sample of twins. Results demonstrate that the phenotype–environment effects explain how heritability estimates fluctuate as well as how nonshared environmental factors persist over time. We discuss possible mechanisms underlying change in gene–environment correlation over time, the advantages and challenges of including gene–environment correlation in longitudinal twin models, and recommendations for future research.
The volume of evidence from scientific research and wider observation is greater than ever before, but much is inconsistent and scattered in fragments over increasingly diverse sources, making it hard for decision-makers to find, access and interpret all the relevant information on a particular topic, resolve seemingly contradictory results or simply identify where there is a lack of evidence. Evidence synthesis is the process of searching for and summarising a body of research on a specific topic in order to inform decisions, but is often poorly conducted and susceptible to bias. In response to these problems, more rigorous methodologies have been developed and subsequently made available to the conservation and environmental management community by the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence. We explain when and why these methods are appropriate, and how evidence can be synthesised, shared, used as a public good and benefit wider society. We discuss new developments with potential to address barriers to evidence synthesis and communication and how these practices might be mainstreamed in the process of decision-making in conservation.
To determine the relationship between falls and deficits in specific cognitive domains in older adults.
Design:
An analysis of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) cohort.
Setting:
United Kingdom community-based.
Participants:
5197 community-dwelling older adults recruited to a prospective longitudinal cohort study.
Measurements:
Data on the occurrence of falls and number of falls, which occurred during a 12-month follow-up period, were assessed against the specific cognitive domains of memory, numeracy skills, and executive function. Binomial logistic regression was performed to evaluate the association between each cognitive domain and the dichotomous outcome of falls in the preceding 12 months using unadjusted and adjusted models.
Results:
Of the 5197 participants included in the analysis, 1308 (25%) reported a fall in the preceding 12 months. There was no significant association between the occurrence of a fall and specific forms of cognitive dysfunction after adjusting for self-reported hearing, self-reported eyesight, and functional performance. After adjustment, only orientation (odds ratio [OR]: 0.80; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.65–0.98, p = 0.03) and verbal fluency (adjusted OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96–1.00; p = 0.05) remained significant for predicting recurrent falls.
Conclusions:
The cognitive phenotype rather than cognitive impairment per se may predict future falls in those presenting with more than one fall.
Rapid flow of the Des Moines lobe of the Laurentide ice sheet may have been related to its unlithified substrate. New reconstructions of the lobe, based on moraine elevations, sediment subsidence during moraine deposition, and flow-direction indicators, indicate that the lobe may have been ∼3 times thicker than in previous reconstructions. Nevertheless, implied basal shear stresses are <15 kPa, so internal ice deformation was not significant. Instead, the lobe likely moved by a combination of sliding, plowing of particles through the bed surface, and bed shear. Consolidation tests on basal till yield preconsolidation stresses of 125–300 kPa, so effective normal stresses on the bed were small. A model of sliding and plowing indicates that at such stresses most particles gripped by the ice may have plowed easily through the till bed, resulting in too small a shear traction on the bed to shear it at depth. Consistent with this prediction, measurements of orientations of clasts in basal till yield a weak fabric, implying pervasive bed shear strain less than ∼2, although some stronger fabrics have been reported by others. We infer, tentatively, that movement was principally at the bed surface by plowing.
The cold-based termini of polythermal glaciers are usually assumed to adhere strongly to an immobile substrate and thereby supply significant resistance to the flow of warm-based ice up-glacier. This compressive environment is commonly thought to uplift basal sediment to the surface of the glacier by folding and thrust faulting. We present model and field evidence from the terminus of Storglaciären, Sweden, showing that the cold margin provides limited resistance to flow from up-glacier. Ice temperatures indicate that basal freezing occurs in this zone at 10−1 −10−2 m a−1, but model results indicate that basal motion at rates greater than 1 m a−1 must, nevertheless, persist there for surface and basal velocities to be consistent with measurements. Estimated longitudinal compressive stresses of 20–25 kPa within the terminus further indicate that basal resistance offered by the cold-based terminus is small. These results indicate that where polythermal glaciers are underlain by unlithified sediments, ice-flow trajectories and sediment transport pathways may be affected by subglacial topography and hydrology more than by the basal thermal regime.
Shearing of subglacial till has been invoked widely as a mechanism of glacier motion and sediment transport, but standard indicators for determining shear strain from the geologic record are not adequate for estimating the very high strains required of the bed-deformation model. Here we describe a laboratory study of mixing between shearing granular layers that allows an upper limit to be placed on bed shear strain in the vicinity of till contacts. Owing to random vertical motions of particles induced by shearing, mixing can be modeled as a linearly diffusive process, and so can be characterized with a single mixing coefficient, D. Ring-shear experiments with equigranular beads and lithologically distinct tills provide the value of D, although in experiments with till D decreases systematically with strain to a minimum value of 0.0045 mm2. Kinetic gas theory provides an estimate of the dimensionless mixing coefficient which is within an order of magnitude of laboratory values. Knowing the minimum value of D, the distribution of index lithologies measured across till contacts in the geologic record can be used to estimate the maximum shear strain that has occurred across till contacts. Application of this technique to the contact between the Des Moines and Superior Lobe tills in east-central Minnesota, U.S.A., indicates that shear strain did not exceed 15 000 at the depth of the contact.
DSM-5 includes two conceptualizations of personality disorders (PDs). The classification in Section II is identical to the one found in DSM-IV, and includes 10 categorical PDs. The Alternative Model (Section III) includes criteria for dimensional measures of maladaptive personality traits organized into five domains. The degree to which the two conceptualizations reflect the same etiological factors is not known.
Methods
We use data from a large population-based sample of adult twins from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health Twin Panel on interview-based DSM-IV PDs and a short self-report inventory that indexes the five domains of the DSM-5 Alternative Model plus a domain explicitly targeting compulsivity. Schizotypal, Paranoid, Antisocial, Borderline, Avoidant, and Obsessive-compulsive PDs were assessed at the same time as the maladaptive personality traits and 10 years previously. Schizoid, Histrionic, Narcissistic, and Dependent PDs were only assessed at the first interview. Biometric models were used to estimate overlap in genetic and environmental risk factors.
Results
When measured concurrently, there was 100% genetic overlap between the maladaptive trait domains and Paranoid, Schizotypal, Antisocial, Borderline, and Avoidant PDs. For OCPD, 43% of the genetic variance was shared with the domains. Genetic correlations between the individual domains and PDs ranged from +0.21 to +0.91.
Conclusion
The pathological personality trait domains, which are part of the Alternative Model for classification of PDs in DSM-5 Section III, appears to tap, at an aggregate level, the same genetic risk factors as the DSM-5 Section II classification for most of the PDs.
A ring-shear device was used to study the factors that control the ultimate(steady) strength of till at high shear strains.Tests at a steady strain rate and at different stresses normal to the shearing direction yielded ultimate friction angles of 26.3° and 18.6° for tills containing 4% and 30% clay-sized particles, respectively Other tests at steady normal stresses and variable shear-strain rates indicated a tendency for both tills to weaken slightly with increasing strain rate. This weakening may be due to small increases in till porosity.
These results provide no evidence of viscous behavior and suggest that a Coulomb-plastic idealization is reasonable for till deformation. However, viscous behavior has often been suggested on the basis of distributed shear strain observed in subglacial till. We hypothesize that deformation may become distributed in till that is deformed cyclically in response to fluctuations in basal water pressure. During a deformation event, transient dilation of discrete shear zones should cause a reduction in internal pore-water pressure that should strengthen these zones relative to the surrounding till, a process called dilatant hardening. Consequent changes in shear-zone position, when integrated over time, may yield the observed distributed strain.
The evolution of glyphosate resistance in weedy species places an environmentally benign herbicide in peril. The first report of a dicot plant with evolved glyphosate resistance was horseweed, which occurred in 2001. Since then, several species have evolved glyphosate resistance and genomic information about nontarget resistance mechanisms in any of them ranges from none to little. Here, we report a study combining iGentifier transcriptome analysis, cDNA sequencing, and a heterologous microarray analysis to explore potential molecular and transcriptomic mechanisms of nontarget glyphosate resistance of horseweed. The results indicate that similar molecular mechanisms might exist for nontarget herbicide resistance across multiple resistant plants from different locations, even though resistance among these resistant plants likely evolved independently and available evidence suggests resistance has evolved at least four separate times. In addition, both the microarray and sequence analyses identified non–target-site resistance candidate genes for follow-on functional genomics analysis.
In shearing sediment beneath glaciers, networks of grains may transiently support shear and normal stresses that are larger than spatial averages. Consistent with studies of fault-gouge genesis, we hypothesize that crushing of grains in such networks is responsible for surrounding larger grains with smaller grains. At sufficiently large strains, this should minimize stress heterogeneity, favor intergranular sliding and abrasion rather than crushing, and result in a self-similar grain-size distribution.
This hypothesis is tested with a ring-shear device that slowly shears a large annular sediment sample to high strains. Shearing and comminution of weak equigranular (2.0–3.3 mm) sediment resulted in a self-similar grain-size distribution with a fractal dimension that increased with shear strain toward a steady value of 2.85. This value is significantly larger than that of gouges produced purely by crushing, 2.6, but it is comparable to values for tilts thought to be deforming beneath modern glaciers, 2.8 to nearly 3.0. At low strains, under a steady mean normal stress of 84 kPa, variations in normal stress measured locally ranged in amplitude from 50 to 300 kPa with wavelengths that were 100 times larger than the initial grain diameter. Crushing of grains, observed through the transparent walls of the device, apparently caused the failure of grain networks. At shearing displacements ranging from 0.7 to 1.0 m, the amplitude of local stress fluctuations decreased abruptly. This change is attributed to fine sediment that distributed stresses more uniformly and caused grain networks to fail primarily by intergranular sliding rather than by crushing of grains. Sliding between grains apparently produced silt by abrasion and resulted in a fractal dimension that was higher than if there had been only crushing.
A size distribution with a fractal dimension greater than 2.6 is probably a necessary but not sufficient condition for determining whether a basal till has been highly deformed. Stress heterogeneity in subglacial sediment that is shearing through its full thickness should contribute to the erosion of underlying rock.
Antisocial personality disorder (ASPD) and borderline personality disorder (BPD) share genetic and environmental risk factors. Little is known about the temporal stability of these etiological factors in adulthood.
Method.
DSM-IV criteria for ASPD and BPD were assessed using structured interviews in 2282 Norwegian twins in early adulthood and again approximately 10 years later. Longitudinal biometric models were used to analyze the number of endorsed criteria.
Results.
The mean criterion count for ASPD and BPD decreased 40% and 28%, respectively, from early to middle adulthood. Rank-order stability was 0.58 for ASPD and 0.45 for BPD. The best-fitting longitudinal twin model included only genetic and individual-specific environmental factors. Genetic effects, both those shared by ASPD and BPD, and those specific to each disorder remained completely stable. The unique environmental effects, however, changed substantially, with a correlation across time of 0.19 for the shared effects, and 0.39 and 0.15, respectively, for those specific to ASPD and BPD. Genetic effects accounted for 71% and 72% of the stability over time for ASPD and BPD, respectively. The genetic and environmental correlations between ASPD and BPD were 0.73, and 0.43, respectively, at both time points.
Conclusion.
ASPD and BPD traits were moderately stable from early to middle adulthood, mostly due to genetic risk factors which did not change over the 10-year assessment period. Environmental risk factors were mostly transient, and appear to be the main source of phenotypic change. Genetic liability factors were, to a large extent, shared by ASPD and BPD.
While cluster A personality disorders (PDs) have been shown to be moderately heritable, we know little about the temporal stability of these genetic risk factors.
Method
Paranoid PD (PPD) and schizotypal PD (STPD) were assessed using the Structured Interview for DSM-IV Personality in 2793 young adult twins from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health Twin Panel at wave 1 and 2282 twins on average 10 years later at wave 2. Using the program Mx, we fitted a longitudinal latent factor model using the number of endorsed criteria for PPD and STPD.
Results
The stability over time of the criteria counts for PPD and STPD, estimated as polychoric correlations, were +0.34 and +0.40, respectively. The best-fit longitudinal model included only additive genetic and individual-specific environmental factors with parameter estimates constrained to equality across the two waves. The cross-wave genetic and individual-specific environmental correlations for a latent cluster A factor were estimated to equal +1.00 and +0.13, respectively. The cross-time correlations for genetic and environmental effects specific to the individual PDs were estimated at +1.00 and +0.16–0.20, respectively. We found that 68% and 71% of the temporal stability of PPD and STPD derived, respectively, from the effect of genetic factors.
Conclusion
Shared genetic risk factors for two of the cluster A PDs are highly stable in adults over a 10-year period while environmental risk factors are relatively transient. Over two-thirds of the long-term stability of the common cluster A PD liability can be attributed to genetic influences.
We sought to explain seasonality and other aspects of Campylobacter jejuni epidemiology by integrating population genetic and epidemiological analysis in a large 3-year longitudinal, two-centre, population-based study. Epidemiological information was collected for 1505 isolates, which were multilocus sequence-typed. Analyses compared pathogen population structure between areas, over time, and between clinical presentations. Pooled analysis was performed with published international datasets. Subtype association with virulence was not observed. UK sites had nearly identical C. jejuni populations. A clade formed by ST45 and ST283 clonal complexes showed a summer peak. This clade was common in a Finnish dataset but not in New Zealand and Australian collections, countries with less marked seasonality. The UK, New Zealand and Australian collections were otherwise similar. These findings map to known in-vitro differences of this clade. This identifies a target for studies to elucidate the drivers of the summer peak in human C. jejuni infection.
Examine the association of oral disease with future dementia/cognitive decline in a cohort of people with type 2 diabetes.
Methods
A total of 11,140 men and women aged 55–88 years at study induction with type 2 diabetes participated in a baseline medical examination when they reported the number of natural teeth and days of bleeding gums. Dementia and cognitive decline were ascertained periodically during a 5-year follow-up.
Results
Relative to the group with the greatest number of teeth (more than or equal to 22), having no teeth was associated with the highest risk of both dementia (hazard ratio; 95% confidence interval: 1.48; 1.24, 1.78) and cognitive decline (1.39; 1.21, 1.59). Number of days of bleeding gums was unrelated to these outcomes.
Conclusions
Tooth loss was associated with an increased risk of both dementia and cognitive decline.