In the early 2000s, Ramakrishna asked the question: for the elliptic curve

\[E\;:\; y^2 = x^3 - x,\]

$a_p(E)$

$E/\mathbb{Q}$

The cyclicity and Koblitz conjectures ask about the distribution of primes of cyclic and prime-order reduction, respectively, for elliptic curves over $\mathbb {Q}$. In 1976, Serre gave a conditional proof of the cyclicity conjecture, but the Koblitz conjecture (refined by Zywina in 2011) remains open. The conjectures are now known unconditionally “on average” due to work of Banks–Shparlinski and Balog–Cojocaru–David. Recently, there has been a growing interest in the cyclicity conjecture for primes in arithmetic progressions (AP), with relevant work by Akbal–Güloğlu and Wong. In this article, we adapt Zywina’s method to formulate the Koblitz conjecture for AP and refine a theorem of Jones to establish results on the moments of the constants in both the cyclicity and Koblitz conjectures for AP. In doing so, we uncover a somewhat counterintuitive phenomenon: On average, these two constants are oppositely biased over congruence classes. Finally, in an accompanying repository, we give Magma code for computing the constants discussed in this article.

Inspired by Nakamura’s work [36] on $\epsilon $-isomorphisms for $(\varphi ,\Gamma )$-modules over (relative) Robba rings with respect to the cyclotomic theory, we formulate an analogous conjecture for L-analytic Lubin-Tate $(\varphi _L,\Gamma _L)$-modules over (relative) Robba rings for any finite extension L of $\mathbb {Q}_p.$ In contrast to Kato’s and Nakamura’s setting, our conjecture involves L-analytic cohomology instead of continuous cohomology within the generalized Herr complex. Similarly, we restrict to the identity components of $D_{cris}$ and $D_{dR},$ respectively. For rank one modules of the above type or slightly more generally for trianguline ones, we construct $\epsilon $-isomorphisms for their Lubin-Tate deformations satisfying the desired interpolation property.

We prove a conjecture of Emerton, Gee and Hellmann concerning the overconvergence of étale $(\varphi,\Gamma)$-modules in families parametrized by topologically finite-type $\mathbf{Z}_{p}$-algebras. As a consequence, we deduce the existence of a natural map from the rigid fiber of the Emerton–Gee stack to the rigid analytic stack of $(\varphi,\Gamma)$-modules.

We prove the Ramanujan and Sato–Tate conjectures for Bianchi modular forms of weight at least $2$. More generally, we prove these conjectures for all regular algebraic cuspidal automorphic representations of $\operatorname {\mathrm {GL}}_2(\mathbf {A}_F)$ of parallel weight, where F is any CM field. We deduce these theorems from a new potential automorphy theorem for the symmetric powers of $2$-dimensional compatible systems of Galois representations of parallel weight.

We study deformation theory of mod p Galois representations of p-adic fields with values in generalised tori, such as L-groups of (possibly non-split) tori. We show that the corresponding deformation rings are formally smooth over a group algebra of a finite abelian p-group. We compute their dimension and the set of irreducible components.

In this paper, we study the universal lifting spaces of local Galois representations valued in arbitrary reductive group schemes when $\ell \neq p$. In particular, under certain technical conditions applicable to any root datum, we construct a canonical smooth component in such spaces, generalizing the minimally ramified deformation condition previously studied for classical groups. Our methods involve extending the notion of isotypic decomposition for a $\operatorname {\mathrm {GL}}_n$-valued representation to general reductive group schemes. To deal with certain scheme-theoretic issues coming from this notion, we are led to a detailed study of certain families of disconnected reductive groups, which we call weakly reductive group schemes. Our work can be used to produce geometric lifts for global Galois representations, and we illustrate this for $\mathrm {G}_2$-valued representations.

We prove a comparison theorem between Greenberg–Benois $\mathcal {L}$-invariants and Fontaine–Mazur $\mathcal {L}$-invariants. Such a comparison theorem supplies an affirmative answer to a speculation of Besser–de Shalit.

We introduce and study the notion of a generalised Hecke orbit in a Shimura variety. We define a height function on such an orbit and study its properties. We obtain lower bounds for the sizes of Galois orbits of points in a generalised Hecke orbit in terms of this height function, assuming the ‘weakly adelic Mumford–Tate hypothesis’ and prove the generalised André–Pink–Zannier conjecture under this assumption, using Pila–Zannier strategy.

Compared with algebraic varieties the local monodromy of Drinfeld modules appears to be hopelessly complex: the image of the wild inertia subgroup under Tate module representations is infinite save for the case of potential good reduction. Nonetheless, we show that Tate modules of Drinfeld modules are ramified in a limited way: the image of a sufficiently deep ramification subgroup is trivial. This leads to a new invariant, the local conductor of a Drinfeld module. We establish an upper bound on the conductor in terms of the volume of the period lattice. As an intermediate step we develop a theory of normed lattices in function field arithmetic including the notion of volume. We relate normed lattices to vector bundles on projective curves. With the aid of Castelnuovo–Mumford regularity this implies a volume bound on norms of lattice generators, and the conductor inequality follows. Last but not least we describe the image of inertia for Drinfeld modules with period lattices of rank $1$. Just as in the theory of local $\ell$-adic Galois representations this image is commensurable with a commutative unipotent algebraic subgroup. However, in the case of Drinfeld modules such a subgroup can be a product of several copies of $\mathbf {G}_a$.

For a connected reductive group G over a nonarchimedean local field F of positive characteristic, Genestier-Lafforgue and Fargues-Scholze have attached a semisimple parameter ${\mathcal {L}}^{ss}(\pi )$ to each irreducible representation $\pi $. Our first result shows that the Genestier-Lafforgue parameter of a tempered $\pi $ can be uniquely refined to a tempered L-parameter ${\mathcal {L}}(\pi )$, thus giving the unique local Langlands correspondence which is compatible with the Genestier-Lafforgue construction. Our second result establishes ramification properties of ${\mathcal {L}}^{ss}(\pi )$ for unramified G and supercuspidal $\pi $ constructed by induction from an open compact (modulo center) subgroup. If ${\mathcal {L}}^{ss}(\pi )$ is pure in an appropriate sense, we show that ${\mathcal {L}}^{ss}(\pi )$ is ramified (unless G is a torus). If the inducing subgroup is sufficiently small in a precise sense, we show $\mathcal {L}^{ss}(\pi )$ is wildly ramified. The proofs are via global arguments, involving the construction of Poincaré series with strict control on ramification when the base curve is ${\mathbb {P}}^1$ and a simple application of Deligne’s Weil II.

Let $\pi $ be a cuspidal, cohomological automorphic representation of an inner form G of $\operatorname {{PGL}}_2$ over a number field F of arbitrary signature. Further, let $\mathfrak {p}$ be a prime of F such that G is split at $\mathfrak {p}$ and the local component $\pi _{\mathfrak {p}}$ of $\pi $ at $\mathfrak {p}$ is the Steinberg representation. Assuming that the representation is noncritical at $\mathfrak {p}$, we construct automorphic $\mathcal {L}$-invariants for the representation $\pi $. If the number field F is totally real, we show that these automorphic $\mathcal {L}$-invariants agree with the Fontaine–Mazur $\mathcal {L}$-invariant of the associated p-adic Galois representation. This generalizes a recent result of Spieß respectively Rosso and the first named author from the case of parallel weight $2$ to arbitrary cohomological weights.

In his work on modularity of elliptic curves and Fermat’s last theorem, A. Wiles introduced two measures of congruences between Galois representations and between modular forms. One measure is related to the order of a Selmer group associated to a newform $f \in S_2(\Gamma _0(N))$ (and closely linked to deformations of the Galois representation $\rho _f$ associated to f), whilst the other measure is related to the congruence module associated to f (and is closely linked to Hecke rings and congruences between f and other newforms in $S_2(\Gamma _0(N))$). The equality of these two measures led to isomorphisms $R={\mathbf T}$ between deformation rings and Hecke rings (via a numerical criterion for isomorphisms that Wiles proved) and showed these rings to be complete intersections.

We continue our study begun in [BKM21] of the Wiles defect of deformation rings and Hecke rings (at a newform f) acting on the cohomology of Shimura curves over ${\mathbf Q}$: It is defined to be the difference between these two measures of congruences. The Wiles defect thus arises from the failure of the Wiles numerical criterion at an augmentation $\lambda _f:{\mathbf T} \to {\mathcal O}$. In situations we study here, the Taylor–Wiles–Kisin patching method gives an isomorphism $ R={\mathbf T}$ without the rings being complete intersections. Using novel arguments in commutative algebra and patching, we generalize significantly and give different proofs of the results in [BKM21] that compute the Wiles defect at $\lambda _f: R={\mathbf T} \to {\mathcal O}$, and explain in an a priori manner why the answer in [BKM21] is a sum of local defects. As a curious application of our work we give a new and more robust approach to the result of Ribet–Takahashi that computes change of degrees of optimal parametrizations of elliptic curves over ${\mathbf Q}$ by Shimura curves as we vary the Shimura curve. The results we prove are not attainable using only the methods of Ribet–Takahashi.

We introduce the notion of completed $F$-crystals on the absolute prismatic site of a smooth $p$-adic formal scheme. We define a functor from the category of completed prismatic $F$-crystals to that of crystalline étale $\mathbf {Z}_p$-local systems on the generic fiber of the formal scheme and show that it gives an equivalence of categories. This generalizes the work of Bhatt and Scholze, which treats the case of a mixed characteristic complete discrete valuation ring with perfect residue field.

In the article [CEGS20b], we introduced various moduli stacks of two-dimensional tamely potentially Barsotti–Tate representations of the absolute Galois group of a p-adic local field, as well as related moduli stacks of Breuil–Kisin modules with descent data. We study the irreducible components of these stacks, establishing, in particular, that the components of the former are naturally indexed by certain Serre weights.

We prove the compatibility of local and global Langlands correspondences for $\operatorname {GL}_n$ up to semisimplification for the Galois representations constructed by Harris-Lan-Taylor-Thorne [10] and Scholze [18]. More precisely, let $r_p(\pi )$ denote an n-dimensional p-adic representation of the Galois group of a CM field F attached to a regular algebraic cuspidal automorphic representation $\pi $ of $\operatorname {GL}_n(\mathbb {A}_F)$. We show that the restriction of $r_p(\pi )$ to the decomposition group of a place $v\nmid p$ of F corresponds up to semisimplification to $\operatorname {rec}(\pi _v)$, the image of $\pi _v$ under the local Langlands correspondence. Furthermore, we can show that the monodromy of the associated Weil-Deligne representation of $\left .r_p(\pi )\right |{}_{\operatorname {Gal}_{F_v}}$ is ‘more nilpotent’ than the monodromy of $\operatorname {rec}(\pi _v)$.

Lafforgue and Genestier-Lafforgue have constructed the global and (semisimplified) local Langlands correspondences for arbitrary reductive groups over function fields. We establish various properties of these correspondences regarding functoriality for cyclic base change: For $\mathbf {Z}/p\mathbf {Z}$-extensions of global function fields, we prove the existence of base change for mod p automorphic forms on arbitrary reductive groups. For $\mathbf {Z}/p\mathbf {Z}$-extensions of local function fields, we construct a base change homomorphism for the mod p Bernstein center of any reductive group. We then use this to prove existence of local base change for mod p irreducible representation along $\mathbf {Z}/p\mathbf {Z}$-extensions, and that Tate cohomology realizes base change descent, verifying a function field version of a conjecture of Treumann-Venkatesh.

The proofs are based on equivariant localization arguments for the moduli spaces of shtukas. They also draw upon new tools from modular representation theory, including parity sheaves and Smith-Treumann theory. In particular, we use these to establish a categorification of the base change homomorphism for mod p spherical Hecke algebras, in a joint appendix with Gus Lonergan.

We use the theory of trianguline $(\varphi ,\Gamma )$-modules over pseudorigid spaces to prove a modularity lifting theorem for certain Galois representations which are trianguline at p, including those with characteristic p coefficients. The use of pseudorigid spaces lets us construct integral models of the trianguline varieties of [BHS17], [Che13] after bounding the slope, and we carry out a Taylor–Wiles patching argument for families of overconvergent modular forms. This permits us to construct a patched quaternionic eigenvariety and deduce our modularity results.

We prove the existence of $\mathrm {GSpin}_{2n}$-valued Galois representations corresponding to cohomological cuspidal automorphic representations of certain quasi-split forms of ${\mathrm {GSO}}_{2n}$ under the local hypotheses that there is a Steinberg component and that the archimedean parameters are regular for the standard representation. This is based on the cohomology of Shimura varieties of abelian type, of type $D^{\mathbb {H}}$, arising from forms of ${\mathrm {GSO}}_{2n}$. As an application, under similar hypotheses, we compute automorphic multiplicities, prove meromorphic continuation of (half) spin L-functions and improve on the construction of ${\mathrm {SO}}_{2n}$-valued Galois representations by removing the outer automorphism ambiguity.

Let K be a finite extension of the p-adic field ${\mathbb {Q}}_p$ of degree d, let ${{\mathbb {F}}\,\!{}}$ be a finite field of characteristic p and let ${\overline {{D}}}$ be an n-dimensional pseudocharacter in the sense of Chenevier of the absolute Galois group of K over the field ${{\mathbb {F}}\,\!{}}$. For the universal mod p pseudodeformation ring ${\overline {R}{{\phantom {\overline {\overline m}}}}^{\operatorname {univ}}_{{{\overline {{D}}}}}}$ of ${\overline {{D}}}$, we prove the following: The ring $\overline R_{{\overline {{D}}}}^{\mathrm {ps}}$ is equidimensional of dimension $dn^2+1$. Its reduced quotient ${\overline {R}{{\phantom {\overline {\overline m}}}}^{\operatorname {univ}}_{{{\overline {{D}}},{\operatorname {red}}}}}$ contains a dense open subset of regular points x whose associated pseudocharacter ${D}_x$ is absolutely irreducible and nonspecial in a certain technical sense that we shall define. Moreover, we will characterize in most cases when K does not contain a p-th root of unity the singular locus of ${\mathrm {Spec}}\ {\overline {R}{{\phantom {\overline {\overline m}}}}^{\operatorname {univ}}_{{{\overline {{D}}}}}}$. Similar results were proved by Chenevier for the generic fiber of the universal pseudodeformation ring ${R{{\phantom {\overline {m}}}}^{\operatorname {univ}}_{{{\overline {D}}}}}$ of ${\overline {{D}}}$.