The European Union has placed the Circular Economy (CE) as a central strategy to advance fair and sustainable GDP growth. Yet, the mechanisms through which CE could decouple growth from social and environmental harms remain underexplored. This study assesses the macroeconomic, social, and ecological implications of CE policies in France by applying an extended version of the EUROGREEN model. The model is grounded in Ecological Macroeconomics, calibrated on historical data, and simulated over the period 2014–2050 under a business-as-usual (BAU) baseline. A “sequential scenario” methodology is adopted to evaluate alternative CE pathways: (i) a Techno-Optimistic Circularity (TOC) scenario featuring substantial improvements in material efficiency and recycling; (ii) two socially-oriented circularity scenarios that combine moderate technological progress with innovative social policies like reduced working time (C2C) and a Job Guarantee(JG) financed through a wealth tax (SEC); and (iii) a Post-Growth scenario (SCD) characterised by lower consumption and material throughput, supported by a Piketty-style financial wealth tax. Simulation results reveal persistent trade-offs between economic growth, social equity, and environmental sustainability. Growth-centred technological and social circularity scenarios do not achieve sufficient levels of decoupling between economic activity and material use, whereas post-growth pathways deliver balanced outcomes across material extraction, employment, and inequality. Overall, simulation outcomes reveal that growth-oriented circularity strategies cannot combine social equity and long-term sustainability goals. Instead, it seems that integrated policy packages combining technological innovation, social policies, and consumption reduction can reconcile CE ambitions with the pursuit of well-being within planetary boundaries.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) have proliferated to protect marine ecosystems and manage unsustainable fishing, but their outcomes vary by economic and governance contexts. Drawing on a panel dataset spanning 1995–2021 and employing the Pressure–State–Response framework, this study analyses how MPA coverage is associated with overexploited fish stocks and examines Official Development Assistance (ODA). Results show MPAs in high-income countries are associated with lower overexploited catch rates, reflecting robust governance. In low-income nations, however, limited capacity is often linked to ‘paper parks’ with negligible impact. Multi-purpose ODA – supporting sustainability goals – appears more effective than single-purpose ODA and is associated with better conservation outcomes. Integrating MPAs with fisheries management, supported by international assistance for enforcement, appears important for bridging disparities in effectiveness. By highlighting the interplay among economic conditions, governance and funding, this study offers higher-level insights into factors that shape MPA effectiveness, contributing to broader policy discussions on marine conservation.

Afforestation and forest restoration have been central to emerging global strategies for climate change mitigation. Based on a framed field experiment (FFE) conducted in the Uttara Kannada region in Karnataka, India, this study investigates whether monetary incentives could effectively promote afforestation and what the likely distributional consequences are. The FFE set-up was designed to provide respondents with choices on planting native or commercial trees in their village common forest. The native trees were associated with higher risk of survival compared to commercial trees. They also provided a mix of monetary and non-monetary benefits which differed across three variations in the experimental design. We find that monetary payments for planting native species worked better when combined with non-monetary benefits. Also, private tenurial rights mediated responses to monetary incentives. The results highlight how heterogeneous interests within the community could play an important role in determining effectiveness and distributional outcomes of afforestation policy.

This study examines whether different biodiversity proxies – species, habitat and functionality – satisfy the scope sensitivity and plausibility criteria in willingness to pay (WTP) estimation using a choice experiment in Manu National Park, Peru. We introduce the network of species interactions as a proxy for functionality and apply latent class (LC) models, including attribute non-attendance (ANA), to account for heterogeneity in preferences. Our results indicate that functionality is the only proxy consistently meeting both validity criteria across all specifications. LC analysis reveals two segments: one (74.4 per cent) displaying coherent, scope-sensitive WTP across biodiversity attributes, and another (25.6 per cent) less engaged, disregarding standard proxies but still valuing networks. Even under ANA constraints, networks remain salient for less attentive respondents, underscoring their cognitive accessibility in complex ecological contexts. These findings highlight the methodological and policy relevance of functionality-based proxies for biodiversity valuation in megadiverse environments, where conventional measures may fail to elicit behaviourally consistent responses.

The economic valuation of recreational ecosystem services is challenging due to difficulties in obtaining geo-tagged information of users. The objective of this study is to validate crowdsourced and user-generated content in order to predict visitation patterns to 16 national parks in Spain. The results may serve to encourage its utilization in the study of recreational demand in other countries, particularly developing countries, where on-site visitor information may be limited or expensive to gather. The present article employs a negative binomial regression model to evaluate the validity of two sources of data: Flickr and mobile phones. The accuracy of predictions exhibited variation across the 16 parks, indicating that site-specific characteristics, such as the seasonality of visitation patterns, may be of significance. The utilization of mobile phone data for modelling visitors yielded enhanced predictive capacity, as shown by the goodness of fit of the estimated models.

This study tests the null hypothesis that no significant differences exist in the relationship between economic growth and deforestation, based on the levels of growth and agricultural productivity in the municipalities of the Brazilian Legal Amazon. Grounded in the environmental Kuznets curve theory, this study employs a non-linear methodological approach to estimate the relationship between economic growth and deforestation. The results reject the null hypothesis, indicating that the relationship between growth and deforestation varies with the municipalities’ productive performance. Furthermore, the findings conclude that a negative monotonic relationship exists between economic growth and deforestation in the Brazilian Legal Amazon, suggesting that reductions in deforestation are achievable even during periods of economic expansion.

Changes like the shift of tropical forests into savannah in the Amazon highlight the potential for deforestation to drive ecosystems past potentially irreversible tipping points. Reforestation may avert or delay tipping points, but its success depends on the degree to which secondary and primary forests are substitutes in the production of ecosystem services. This article explores how deforestation, reforestation and substitutability between forest types affect the likelihood that a forest system will cross a tipping point. Efforts to ensure that secondary forests better mimic primary forests only yield a small improvement in terms of delaying ecosystem collapse. The most significant effects on tipping points arise from an increase in the relative costs of clearing primary forests or a decrease in the costs of protecting land tenure in secondary forests. Our results highlight the importance of the latter, which are often ignored as a policy target, to reduce the risk of ecosystem collapse.

Microplastic pollution from plastic fragments accumulating in agricultural fields threatens the world’s most productive soils and environmental sustainability. This is the first paper to address the challenge of developing a dynamic economic model to analyze the adoption of soil-biodegradable plastic mulches (BDMs) as a sustainable alternative to conventional polyethylene mulches. The model considers the trade-off between BDM degradation rates and agricultural production, seeking to balance the cost of BDMs and the cost of waste disposal. We consider both private and social perspectives under deterministic and stochastic environments. Our findings suggest that BDMs can significantly decrease long-term plastic pollution from single-use plastics in agriculture. For example, increasing landfill tipping fees incentivizes Washington State tomato growers to optimally adopt BDMs with a 61% degradation rate and to till used BDMs into the soil, reducing plastic waste accumulation in landfills. The study highlights the role of economic incentives, such as landfill fees, corrective taxes and the role of risk aversion, in promoting BDM adoption and curbing plastic pollution. The framework presented here offers valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to foster sustainable agricultural practices and mitigate global plastic pollution.

Constrained econometric techniques hamper investigations of disease prevalence and income risks in the shrimp industry. We employ an econometric model and machine learning (ML) to reduce model restrictions and improve understanding of the influence of diseases and climate on income and disease risks. An interview of 534 farmers with the models enables the discernment of factors influencing shrimp income and disease risks. ML complemented the Just-Pope production model, and the partial dependency plots show nonlinear relationships between income, disease prevalence, and risk factors. Econometric and ML models generated complementary information to understand income and disease prevalence risk factors.

We study management decisions made jointly and independently by countries affected by an invasive species that is also a profitable fishery. The Red King Crab, introduced in Russian waters of the Barents Sea, spread into Norwegian waters. Management by Russia and Norway reflects differing markets and invasion damages. Our spatial dynamic bioeconomic model evaluates management of the crab and optimal game strategies integrating varied incentives from market prices, ecosystem values, and spatial connectivity. Our empirical application characterizes stock changes responding to different model components. This research shows economic and ecological trade-offs in Arctic waters with differing net benefits for sovereign stakeholders.

In this study, a novel measure of interest in all (264) natural or mixed World Heritage sites sourced from an online platform is contrasted with the degree and number of threats as formally identified by the UNESCO (in its State of Conservation database) and the IUCN (in its Conservation Outlook Assessment reporting), when typical site characteristics are accounted for. Information on TripAdvisor reviews is the digitally sourced measure, and the site characteristics originate from the UNESCO World Heritage database including size, year of inscription, kind of site as well as a distinction between mixed and fully natural sites. Results reveal that the number of reviews and threats both relate to years of inscription, kind of site and to a certain extent continent. The degree of threat reacts to all site characteristics except continent. The analysis reveals that TripAdvisor measures the popularity of the site, although this does not automatically mean that it is also threatened.

In this paper, I discuss dual collective action problems in which a resource pool has simultaneous common pool and public good aspects in its usage, such as hunting (consumption) and conservation of wildlife. I then implement laboratory experiments to evaluate how spillovers between the two related uses of nature affect the consumption and conservation habits of stakeholders. The Nash predictions suggest that even the most selfish of profit-maximizing agents have an incentive to provide equally towards resource consumption and conservation when resource spillovers are present. Results from laboratory experiments are consistent with this hypothesis. As a policy intervention, I introduced and later revoked a common pool licensing policy based on U.S. hunting and fishing licensing. Under the same theoretical framework, removing a common pool licensing policy would increase welfare for all resource stakeholders. Contrary to this, experimental evidence indicates no overall change in welfare.

In this paper we discuss laboratory experiments that address the problem of self-governance in an asymmetric commons dilemma. Small-scale irrigation systems that provide food for hundreds of millions of people around the world are probably the most common example of such dilemmas. Here, we formulate an abstract dilemma in which subjects make both a decision about investment in the provision of infrastructure associated with the use of a resource and about how much to extract from the common-pool resource made available by this infrastructure. The impact of inherent asymmetry in irrigation systems on the provision of a resource and the impact of communication on the capacity of the group to solve the two-level commons dilemma of cooperation and coordination based on the analysis of the experimental data are discussed.

Janssen et al. (Exp Econ 14:547–566, 2014) studied an asymmetric, finitely repeated common-pool resource dilemma with free-form communication in which subjects made decisions about investments in an infrastructure, and about extraction from a resource made available by this infrastructure. They found that infrastructure provision and joint payoffs converged to high levels because structurally advantaged head-enders tend to behave fairly by restricting themselves voluntarily at the extraction stage, and structurally disadvantaged “tail-enders” reciprocate by investing. This paper reports a fully independent, pre-registered, double-blind replication attempt conducted in a different lab, that also supplies elevated statistical power and adheres to the highest principles of scientific transparency and openness. We find that the key results of Janssen et al. not only re-appear qualitatively but are quantitatively and statistically strengthened. The conclusions drawn from the results are therefore robust, and the basic design can be confidently used for follow-up research.

Climate-smart agricultural and forestry (CSAF) practices prevent greenhouse gas emissions from occurring or increase carbon sequestration. I examine how the development of U.S. CSAF incentives shifted from offset markets to biofuel regulations over time. My perspective is informed by two professional roles I had in developing these standards. First, as an economist at the Chicago Climate Exchange, I developed CSAF offset protocols between 2007 and 2010. Second, between 2022 and 2024, I was an economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) when USDA developed a climate-smart agriculture pilot protocol for the sustainable aviation fuel blender’s tax credit. Twenty years ago, there were no U.S. biofuel mandates and CSAF incentives were conceptualized as occurring through offset markets. I explain how, in contrast to cap-and-trade programs, greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural and forestry practices are already included in the baseline of biofuel regulations. This implies that additionality issues, which have impeded the development of CSAF offset standards, are not as applicable to biofuel programs. Specifically, I examine the development of agricultural soil carbon, livestock digester, and forest carbon protocols as case studies. I conclude by discussing how CSAF crediting may evolve in the future.

This paper hypothesizes that respondents in contingent valuation surveys may form different benefit and cost levels that deviate from the levels specified by the researcher. The conceptual framework investigates potential biases based on the direction of deviations. Survey data on the restoration of wetlands in Tampa Bay show that a significant portion of the respondents deviate from the benefit and cost levels presented in the scenario. Empirical results indicate that willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates are very sensitive to the perceived benefit and cost levels. Depending on the direction of the deviations, WTP estimates could fluctuate up to +61 percent and −82 percent, compared to the estimate from those who evaluate the scenario at the presented levels.

Animal welfare is often ignored in decision-making, despite widespread agreement about its importance. This is partly because of a lack of quantitative methods to assess the impacts of policies on humans and nonhumans alike on a common scale. At the same time, recent work in economics, philosophy, and animal welfare science has made progress on the fundamental theoretical challenge of estimating the well-being potential of different species on a single scale. By combining these estimates of each species’ well-being potential with assessments of how various policies impact the quality of life for these species, along with the number of animals affected, we can arrive at a framework for estimating the impact of policies on animal health and well-being. This framework allows for a quantifiable comparison between policies affecting humans and animals. For instance, it enables us to compare human QALYs to animal QALYs tailored to specific species. Hence, the intrinsic value of animal welfare impacts of policies can be monetized on the same scale as market and non-market impact for humans, facilitating benefit–cost analysis. Many challenges remain though, including issues of population ethics, political feasibility, and new complexities in addressing equity and uncertainty.

The presence of monitoring institutions affects quality and effort of leaders. We investigate the effect of intensified monitoring on the ability and effort of leaders for a sample of forest user groups in Ethiopia, and find experimental and non-experimental evidence of an important trade-off: monitoring increases leaders' effort but lowers their quality in terms of education and experience. This effort–ability trade-off only occurs in the presence of alternative income opportunities (affecting the opportunity cost of time) and only among a subsample of leaders with low prosocial motivation. For our context, we document that the net effect of monitoring on economic outcomes is positive.

A theoretically consistent structural model facilitates definition and measurement of use and non-use benefits of ecosystem services. Unlike many previous approaches that utilize multiple stated choice situations, we apply this conceptual framework to a travel cost random utility model and a consequential single referendum contingent valuation research design for simultaneously estimating use and non-use willingness to pay for environmental quality improvement. We employ Monte Carlo generated data to evaluate properties of key parameters and examine the robustness of this method of measuring use and non-use values associated with quality change. The simulation study confirms that this new method, combined with simulated revealed and stated preference data can generally, but not always, be applied to successfully identify use and non-use values of various ecosystems while consistency is ensured.

Using the case of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white-tailed deer, we estimated hunters’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) for testing their game and determined how their perception of disease risk, trust, and confidence in wildlife agency affected hunter participation in ongoing disease surveillance. The average WTP for testing was $23.75 per deer, and it was positively related to trust and confidence in the wildlife agency and the perception of risk about deer populations in the declining area and the pathogen spreading to other areas. These findings imply that implementing active outreach programs can improve hunter participation in user-paid systems for CWD surveillance.