We in this paper employ a penalized moment selection procedure to identify valid and relevant moments for estimating and testing forecast rationality within the flexible loss framework proposed by Elliott et al. (2005). We motivate the selection of moments in a high-dimensional setting, outlining the fundamental mechanism of the penalized moment selection procedure and demonstrating its implementation in the context of forecast rationality, particularly in the presence of potentially invalid moment conditions. The selection consistency and asymptotic normality are established under conditions specifically tailored to economic forecasting. Through a series of Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluate the finite sample performance of penalized moment estimation in utilizing available instrument information effectively within both estimation and testing procedures. Additionally, we present an empirical analysis using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia to illustrate the practical utility of the suggested methodology. The results indicate that the proposed post-selection estimator for forecaster’s attitude performs comparably to the oracle estimator by efficiently incorporating available information. The power of rationality and symmetry tests leveraging penalized moment estimation is substantially enhanced by minimizing the impact of uninformative instruments. For practitioners assessing the rationality of externally generated forecasts, such as those in the Greenbook, the proposed penalized moment selection procedure could offer a robust approach to achieve more efficient estimation outcomes.

This paper departs from the ballot to examine dropout decisions in congressional elections from 1980 to 2022. I draw on an original dataset of 26,000 U.S. House candidates who were voted on in the primary or raised money but were not on the ballot. Moving beyond the ballot reveals new patterns of strategic candidate exit. While prior work focused on differences in the entry of experienced candidates, I find that experienced candidates who struggle to raise money are more likely to exit. In addition, the relationship between early fundraising and dropout decisions has changed dramatically over time. Experienced candidates who fail to make early fundraising inroads are far more likely to drop out today than in previous decades. The exit of experienced candidates has important implications for the choices that voters have. The findings provide new evidence of how money shapes the trajectory of campaigns well before the election.

Our goal is to show that both the fast and slow versions of the triangle map (a type of multi-dimensional continued fraction algorithm) in dimension n are ergodic, resolving a conjecture of Messaoudi, Noguiera, and Schweiger [Ergodic properties of triangle partitions. Monatsh. Math. 157 (2009), 283–299]. This particular type of higher dimensional multi-dimensional continued fraction algorithm has recently been linked to the study of partition numbers, with the result that the underlying dynamics has combinatorial implications.

A small conference was held in New York on March 19 to 20, 1964, concerning the general position of the teaching of African Languages in the United States at the present moment.

The conference, called at the joint request of the National Defense Education Act Language and Area Centers and Columbia University's Institute of African Studies, was attended by the directors and teachers of African language of the major centers of African studies in the United States.

In the course of the two-day meeting the directors reported in some detail on the position of African language teaching in their respective universities and a number of clarifications of NDEA policy were presented by Mr. Donald Bigelow.

The question of a summer session on African languages was discussed at length and a variety of suggestions were offered for possible changes in the format of the existing summer session sponsored by NDEA. In this connection, a resolution was passed urging the establishment of a summer Institute of African Languages, to be located at a permanent site, and under the sponsorship of the African Studies Association.

The successful colonization of invasive plants (IPs) may be facilitated by their nutrient release during decomposition, which alters soil physicochemical properties, enzyme activities, microbial metabolic processes and the diversity of soil microorganisms. This study aimed to examine the effects of co-decomposition of four Asteraceae IPs (Conyza canadensis, Conyza sumatrensis, Erigeron annuus and Solidago canadensis) along a gradient of invasion and a native plant (Pterocypsela laciniata) on decomposition rate, soil physicochemical properties, soil enzyme activities and the diversity of soil bacterial communities (SBCs). Leaves of C. canadensis with heavy invasion and S. canadensis with light and heavy invasion decomposed more slowly than P. laciniata. Leaves of C. canadensis with full invasion decomposed more rapidly than P. laciniata. Pterocypsela laciniata and C. sumatrensis had synergistic effects on each other’s decomposition, whereas P. laciniata and S. canadensis displayed an antagonistic effect. Decomposition of the four IPs increased soil microbial carbon content but reduced soil fluorescein diacetate (FDA) hydrolase activity compared to P. laciniata. Thus, invasion degree and species identity of IPs modulate the effects of the four IPs on the decomposition rate, mixed-effect intensity of co-decomposition, soil microbial carbon content, soil FDA hydrolase activity and SBC structure.

An experimental study was conducted to investigate the impingement of a vortex ring onto a porous wall by laser-induced fluorescence and particle image velocimetry. The effects of different Reynolds numbers (${{Re}}_{\it\Gamma } = 700$ and $1800$) and hole diameters ($d_{h}^{*} = 0.067$, $0.10$, $0.133$ and $0.20$) on the flow characteristics were examined at a constant porosity ($\phi = 0.75$). To characterise fluid transport through a porous wall, we recall the model proposed by Naaktgeboren, Krueger & Lage (2012, J. Fluid Mech., vol. 707, 260–286), which shows rough agreement with the experimental results due to the absence of vortex ring characteristics. This highlights the need for a more accurate model to correlate the losses in kinetic energy ($\Delta E^{*}$) and impulse ($\Delta I^{*}$) resulting from the vortex ring–porous wall interaction. Starting from Lamb’s vortex ring model and considering the flow transition from the upstream laminar state to the downstream turbulent state caused by the porous wall disturbance, a new model is derived theoretically: $\Delta E^{*} = 1 - k(1 - \Delta I^{*})^2$, where $k$ is a parameter dependent on the dimensionless core radius $\varepsilon$, with $k = 1$ when no flow state change occurs. This new model effectively correlates $\Delta E^{*}$ and $\Delta I^{*}$ across more than 70 cases from current and previous experiments, capturing the dominant flow physics of the vortex ring–porous wall interaction.

The following highly selective list was compiled for presentation at the October 1964 meeting of the African Studies Association's Libraries-Archives Committee in Chicago. It was designed to illustrate preliminary findings of the ASA's National African Guide Project in the area of private (i.e., nongovernmental) papers, and particularly to emphasize their wide variety and distribution. The entries, by individuals and organizations, are grouped under the following broad “activity” categories: Politicians; Diplomats; Naval Officers; Humanitarians; Missionaries; Businessmen and Businesses; Authors, Journalists, and Travelers; and Scholars and Scientists. In several cases there is a further breakdown into subcategories. Within their respective categories or subcategories the entries are arranged alphabetically. An effort has been made throughout this list to complement--rather than duplicate--the coverage of the Collins and Duignan guide,Americans in Africa (Stanford, Calif., Hoover Institution, 1963).

We assessed the feeding behavior, intake, apparent total tract digestibility, blood parameters, milk yield, milk composition and milk fatty acid profile in dairy goats fed diets containing increasing levels of whole cottonseed (WCS), specifically a control diet with no WCS and diets containing 120, 150 and 180 g WCS/kg DM. Eight lactating dairy goats were distributed in a replicated 4 × 4 Latin square design with four 21-day periods. Rumination and total chewing time increased linearly with WCS inclusion levels. However, no effects on dry matter intake or digestibility were observed. Milk production was similar among treatments, but milk fat and lactose concentration increased linearly with WCS dietary levels, as did monounsaturated and polyunsaturated FA and conjugated linoleic acid concentration in milk fat. This study demonstrates that increasing the inclusion of WCS in the diets of dairy goats offers potential nutritional benefits without negatively impacting intake, digestibility or ruminal fermentation. Notably, WCS-enhanced diets led to improved milk fat composition, with increased concentrations of beneficial FA. These results support the use of WCS as an effective feed ingredient to enhance milk quality in dairy goats, leveraging both the high-energy content and fiber structure of WCS, which promotes rumen health and function without reducing DMI. Dairy goat producers can incorporate up to 180 g WCS/kg DM in diets to produce milk with a healthier fat profile, potentially enhancing its marketability.