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We consider the two-layer quasi-geostrophic model with linear bottom friction and, in certain simulations, a planetary vorticity gradient, $\beta$. We derive energy budgets in wavenumber space for eddy available potential energy (EAPE), baroclinic eddy kinetic energy (EKE) and barotropic EKE, a particular decomposition that has previously been overlooked. The conversion between EAPE and baroclinic EKE, $\widehat {T}^{{W}}$, has a strong dependence on both bottom drag strength and planetary $\beta$. At the deformation scale $\widehat {T}^{{W}}$ is always negative, representing the conversion of EAPE to EKE via baroclinic instability. For strong, linear bottom drag, $\widehat {T}^{{W}}$ is positive at large scales due to frictional energisation of the baroclinic mode, providing a large-scale EAPE source. With weak-to-moderate bottom drag and moderate-to-strong planetary $\beta$, $\widehat {T}^{{W}}$ is the dominant source of EAPE at large scales, converting baroclinic EKE that has experienced a baroclinic inverse cascade back into EAPE, and thus closing a novel and exclusively baroclinic energy loop. With planetary $\beta$, zonal jets form and the dominant large-scale processes in the energy cycle of the system, e.g. barotropic dissipation and the peak of positive $\widehat {T}^{{W}}$, occur at the meridional wavenumber corresponding to the jet spacing, with no zonal wavenumber component, i.e., $k_{x}=0$. Importantly, the traditional source of large-scale EAPE, barotropic stirring of the baroclinic mode, is not a part of this $k_{x} = 0$ energy cycle, and thus plays a secondary role. The results suggest that consideration of horizontally two-dimensional processes is requisite to understand the energetics and physics of baroclinic geophysical jets.
Continued global environmental degradation generates risks to human health, for example, through air pollution, disease, and food insecurity. This study focuses on these three types of health impact and explores what drives these risks. The risks can arise from diverse causes including political, economic, social, technological, legal/regulatory, and environmental factors. We assembled diverse experts to work together to produce ‘system maps’ for how risks arise, identifying monitoring ‘watchpoints’ to help track risks and interventions that can help prevent them materialising. We critically appraise this pilot methodology, in order to improve our capacity to understand and act to protect human health.
Technical summary
Systemic risks arise through a process of contagion across political, economic, social, technological, legal/regulatory, and environmental systems. The highly complex nature of these risks prevents probabilistic assessment as is carried out for more conventional risks. This study critically explores a new approach based on participatory systems mapping with experts from diverse backgrounds helping to appraise these risks and identify data and monitoring ‘watchpoints’ to track their progress. We focus on three case studies: air quality, biosecurity, and food security. We assembled 36 experts selected in a stratified way to maximise cognitive diversity, plus 14 members of the interdisciplinary project team. Across 7 workshops, we identified 39 ‘risk cascades’, defined as pathways by which systemic risk can have negative impacts on human health, and we identified 681 watchpoints and interventions. We identify a broad range of interventions to reduce risk, exploring systems approaches to help prioritise these interventions; for example, understanding co-benefits in terms of reducing multiple different types of risk, as well as trade-offs. In this paper, we take a reflective approach, critically discussing constraints and refinements to our pilot methodology, in order to enhance capacity to appraise and act on systemic risks.
Social media summary
How can we act on the risks from air pollution, disease, and food insecurity? Insights from a new systemic risk assessment methodology.
Robust surfaces capable of reducing flow drag, controlling heat and mass transfer, and resisting fouling in fluid flows are important for various applications. In this context, textured surfaces impregnated with a liquid lubricant show promise due to their ability to sustain a liquid–liquid interface that induces slippage. However, theoretical and numerical studies suggest that the slippage can be compromised by surfactants in the overlying fluid, which contaminate the liquid–liquid interface and generate Marangoni stresses. In this study, we use Doppler-optical coherence tomography, an interferometric imaging technique, combined with numerical simulations to investigate how surfactants influence the slip length of lubricant-infused surfaces with longitudinal grooves in a laminar flow. Surfactants are endogenously present in the contrast agent (milk) which is added to the working fluid (water). Local measurements of slip length at the liquid–liquid interface are significantly smaller than theoretical predictions for clean interfaces (Schönecker & Hardt 2013). In contrast, measurements are in good agreement with numerical simulations of fully immobilized interfaces, indicating that milk surfactants adsorbed at the interface are responsible for the reduction in slippage. This work provides the first experimental evidence that liquid–liquid interfaces within textured surfaces can become immobilised in the presence of surfactants and flow.
The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is expected to increase interstellar object (ISO) detections from a few over the past decade to potentially one per few months, demanding a systematic classification scheme. We present the Interstellar Object Significance Scale (IOSS), also known in the literature as the Loeb Scale, a 0–10 classification system extending the proven Torino Scale framework, to address ISOs’ unique anomalies, including potential technosignatures. The scale provides quantitative thresholds for natural phenomena (Levels 0–3) and graduated protocols for increasingly anomalous characteristics (Levels 4–7), with Levels 8–10 reserved for confirmed artificial origin. Each level specifies observable criteria and response protocols. We demonstrate the scale’s application using 1I/'Oumuamua (Level 4), 2I/Borisov (Level 0) and 3I/ATLAS (Level 4) as test cases. The IOSS provides the astronomical community with a standardized framework for consistent, evidence-based and dynamic evaluation while maintaining scientific rigor across the full spectrum of possibilities as we enter an era of routine ISO encounters.
Ice cliffs and supraglacial ponds are key drivers of mass loss on debris-covered glaciers. However, the relationship between melt ponds and adjacent ice cliffs has not been fully explored. We investigated the seasonal drainage patterns of a melt pond on the debris-covered Zhuxi Glacier in southeast Tibet and estimated the mass loss of its adjacent ice cliff during 2023–24. Using hourly time-lapse photogrammetry, we built a series of high-resolution point clouds to quantify the evolution of the ice cliff-pond system. Our findings indicate that subaerial melting and undercutting were the primary mechanisms of ice cliff mass loss during summer. In winter when the pond water level dropped, ice cliff calving became the dominant mode of ice loss. As the water level rose in spring, calving and subaerial melting occurred simultaneously and ice loss from calving accounted for approximately 19.5% of total ice loss from February to July 2024. Our results reveal the transitional state of this ice cliff-pond system, exhibiting characteristics of both melt hotspots and lake-terminating calving fronts, and highlight the interplay between seasonal drainage-refill pond and differing modes of ice loss on adjacent ice cliff. Future research should focus on additional high-resolution monitoring of similar systems and incorporation of ice cliff-pond dynamics in glacier-scale numerical models.
We use the theory of spectral submanifolds (SSMs) to develop a low-dimensional reduced-order model for plane Couette flow restricted to the shift–reflect invariant subspace in the permanently chaotic regime at ${Re}=187.8$ studied by Kreilos & Eckhardt (2012, Chaos: Interdisciplinary J. Nonlinear Sci., vol. 22, 047505). Our three-dimensional model is obtained by restricting the dynamics to the slowest mixed-mode SSM of the edge state. We show that this results in a nonlinear model that accurately reconstructs individual trajectories, representing the entire chaotic attractor and the laminar dynamics simultaneously. In addition, we derive a two-dimensional Poincaré map that enables the rapid computation of the periodic orbits embedded in the chaotic attractor.
During a biodiversity survey conducted in the Gulf of Izmit (Sea of Marmara, Türkiye), 87 individuals of bat star Asterina stellifera, whose native distribution is along the South Atlantic coasts of South America and Africa, were identified. The population seems to be well adapted to a mixed substrate composed of coarse sand, silt, and shell fragments of Mytilus galloprovincialis between 4 and 8 meters of depth range. DNA barcoding of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene showed over 99% identity with the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) GenBank sequences from South America, indicating the possible origin and shipping as the mode of introduction. This is the first record of this species outside of its native range.
We investigate the dynamics of an oscillatory boundary layer developing over a bed of collisional and freely evolving sediment grains. We perform Euler–Lagrange simulations at Reynolds numbers ${\textit{Re}}_\delta = 200$, 400 and 800, density ratio $\rho _{\!p}/\rho _{\!f} = 2.65$, Galileo number ${\textit{Ga}} = 51.9$, maximum Shields numbers from $5.60 \times 10^{-2}$ to $2.43 \times 10^{-1}$, based on smooth wall configuration, and Keulegan–Carpenter number from $134.5$ to $538.0$. We show that the dynamics of the oscillatory boundary layer and sediment bed are strongly coupled due to two mechanisms: (i) bed permeability, which leads to flow penetration deep inside the sediment layer, a slip velocity at the bed–fluid interface, and the expansion of the boundary layer, and (ii) particle motion, which leads to rolling-grain ripples at ${\textit{Re}}_\delta = 400$ and ${\textit{Re}}_\delta = 800$. While at ${\textit{Re}}_\delta = 200$ the sediment bed remains static during the entire cycle, the permeability of the bed–fluid interface causes a thickening of the boundary layer. With increasing ${\textit{Re}}_\delta$, the particles become mobile, which leads to rolling-grain ripples at ${\textit{Re}}_\delta = 400$ and suspended sediment at ${\textit{Re}}_\delta = 800$. Due to their feedback force on the fluid, the mobile sediment particles cause greater velocity fluctuations in the fluid. Flow penetration causes a progressive alteration of the fluid velocity gradient near the bed interface, which reduces the Shields number based upon bed shear stress.
Chapter 1 delves into global urbanisation dynamics, honing in on urban water challenges, notably in the context of China’s accelerating urbanisation. Urbanisation, a transformative global force, triggers societal, economic and environmental shifts, offering opportunities for progress if managed adeptly. However, the chapter underscores the escalating water challenges accompanying this phenomenon. Urban floods, propelled by expanding impervious areas, pose substantial global threats, inducing economic losses. The intensified urbanisation aggravates water scarcity, fuelling conflicts and impacting ecosystems. Urban development contributes to water pollution, upsetting natural balances and escalating pollutant concentrations, resulting in ecological degradation. The urban heat island effect exacerbates these challenges, affecting ecosystems and local weather patterns. This chapter provides a nuanced exploration of the intricate relationship between urbanisation and water challenges, emphasising the urgent need for sustainable urban development practices.
Chapter 3 explores the impacts of urbanisation on the hydrological cycle, specifically the storm hydrograph. The replacement of vegetation with impermeable surfaces and the channelling of water in urban areas contribute to flooding and pollution events. The chapter emphasises the interdependence of flood risk management and water quality improvement in urban environments, stressing the importance of considering both aspects. Structural solutions for sustainable water quality improvements in urban stormwater such as Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS) are explored, covering flood resilience, benefits, sustainable drainage approaches, evidence of SuDS efficacy, their maintenance and integration into water-sensitive urban design (WSUD) for the entire city.
This chapter explores the potential of using sediment cores from floodplain lakes to assess contaminant levels in riverine flood deposits. It emphasises the limited knowledge about contaminants carried by floodwaters and their risks due to a lack of long-term monitoring data. Sediment cores offer a solution by preserving historical events, enabling the reconstruction of past contaminant levels. Theoretical background and methods for identifying historical flood deposits in sediment cores are discussed, along with temporal trends in waterway pollution. Case studies from Australia and Canada demonstrate the technique’s contribution to understanding the contamination levels in sediments deposited by river floods. Acknowledging the need for refinement, the chapter calls for a better understanding of uncertainties and the development of models to convert contaminant levels in flood deposits to those in the water column. Despite being in its early stages, the use of sediment cores holds great potential for enhancing flood risk assessment and management.
Floods, encompassing river, pluvial, and coastal types, are global disasters causing fatalities, infrastructure damage and ecosystem disruptions. This book fills a research gap by examining the underexplored facet of floods: their impact on water quality. Addressing the nexus of floods, climate change and water quality, it underscores escalating risks from heavy rainfall events, including pollutant mobilisation resulting to water pollution and coastal salinisation. Focussed on urbanisation, the book explores diverse flood types, offering insights into adaptive strategies such as sustainable urban design and sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS). It emphasises integrating water quality considerations into flood risk management and introduces an online forecast model for urban flooding, highlighting the importance of early warning systems. Case studies and data from Canada, Australia, India, France and China illuminate real-world impacts. The book significantly advances understanding of floods’ multifaceted effects on water quality, providing practical approaches to mitigate challenges in this changing climate and identifying gaps of knowledge that need to be researched.
Chapter 5 explores the imperative need for early warning systems in predicting pluvial flood events in urban areas, focussing on hydraulic interactions and contaminant transport. Urban regions face increased vulnerability due to high population density and extended impervious surfaces. With pluvial floods occurring suddenly and posing a high risk to life and property, the chapter underscores the importance of real-time forecasting to minimise damages. It addresses the challenges in modelling water fluxes in cities, emphasising the complexity of physically based models and input requirements. The discussion extends to the coupling of urban flow and transport models, highlighting the need for efficient control strategies. The chapter also presents a case study in Oberricklingen, Hannover, Germany, showcasing the application of the developed models and concluding that an ANN-based model is optimal for spatially uniform rain events..
Chapter 4 explores the challenges posed by urbanisation on water quality, particularly during extreme rainfall events. The chapter traces the historical development of sewer systems designed to channel stormwater out of cities and into water bodies, emphasising the subsequent need for wastewater treatment to protect water sources. The proliferation of impervious surfaces in cities has led to increased flooding, prompting the construction of larger sewers, albeit quantity-focussed solutions. This approach, coupled with the misconception that stormwater is uncontaminated, exacerbates environmental pollution. The chapter advocates for comprehensive urban drainage management during floods to minimise water pollutants. Storm water tanks and SUDs are mentioned as means to reduce pollution loads to reach water bodies. It discusses the factors crucial for effective management, ranging from maintenance and short-term rain forecasting to the importance of pollutographs in long-term planning. Emphasising citizen involvement and a shift towards sustainable drainage techniques, the chapter provides insights for preserving urban environments amidst increasing extreme rainfall events and climate change threats.