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Natural resource scarcities are fundamental challenges for cities – and water is an especially critical resource. The chapter examines how maintaining adequate water supply is a constant challenge for cities. More specifically, this application chapter focuses on how urban water supply can be maintained, and when and why threats to supply emerge and can grow. How urban water supply stress and crisis can lead to significant environmental policy transitions is the focus of four specific city case studies. These include Atlanta, US; Cairo, Egypt; New York, US; and Tel Aviv, Israel. While droughts were relevant proximate drivers of the transitions, the cases illustrate how a range of root drivers (e.g., lack of governance capacity, transboundary conflicts) and context drivers (e.g., competing economic interests, legal precedents, inequity) played significant roles in the policy transitions and resulting transformation. The social conditions, ecological constraints, and technology access all took on important functions. Built infrastructure, including water supply infrastructure (e.g., dams, reservoirs, aqueducts) as massive, fixed assets representing the legacy of past actions, was especially important in the articulation of the transition process.
The 25 case studies in the preceding chapters (Chapters 5–10) reveal how the process of change can erupt from crises and related moments of transition. The goal of this chapter is to bring forward key results and insights from these case narratives and broader application discussions in which they are embedded. To do so, the chapter is structured around two objectives: (1) Provide a general synthesis of the case study transitions and how the sequence of stress, crisis, transition, and transformation was expressed; and (2) present and examine a set of insights revealed by the framework application. Attention is given to the connection between the underlying drivers (i.e., root, context, and proximate) and spheres of action (i.e., social, ecological/environmental, and technological/infrastructural) and the conditions of stress, crisis, and transition. At the end of the chapter, some observations and suggestions on ways to advance the framework are presented. The discussion focuses on the connection between the pattern and pace of crisis and the resulting transition and transformation. Relevant crisis and resilience indicators are presented as an approach to assess the environmental policy transition process.
Disasters and associated shocks and the disruption they cause are a fundamental component of the urban experience. In many cases they can represent an existential threat to the city and its residents. The social construction of risk and the capacity of urban societies to recover from these stressors and shocks and be resilient to them provide foundations for how to analyze the ways in which hazard-related environmental policy transitions can occur. The chapter introduces and utilizes a wide range of factors that mediate this response including (1) understanding of the risk including the level of uncertainty, (2) perception of the risk and the role of cultural and historical factors, and (3) access to resources such as knowledge, financing, and decision-making capacity. Five case examples are introduced. One focuses on riverine flooding (Cedar Rapids, US) and three examine riverine and coastal storm flooding (e.g., Kolkata, India; New Orleans, US; and Rotterdam, the Netherlands). Chronic and increasingly extreme heat exposure and vulnerability are examined in the case of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The analysis demonstrates how deep-seated root drivers such as poverty, inequities, and lack of social cohesion play critical roles in how the environmental transitions and transformations occur.
Paleo-ecological niche modeling (paleoENM) estimates the niches and distributions of extinct species using fossil paleo-coordinates and local environmental data. While general circulation models (GCMs) have been used to estimate climate conditions in deep time, primarily for terrestrial vertebrates, variations in paleo-elevation models used in GCM construction can influence paleoENM outcomes. This study (1) examines the impact of the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction on the niche dimensions of the marine invertebrate group Turritellinae (Cerithoidea: Turritellidae) and (2) compares two paleo-elevation models’ effects on GCM-based species’ distribution predictions. Fossil occurrence data from the Maastrichtian and Danian periods were collected from the Paleobiology Database (PBDB), museum collections, and published literature. Environmental data were extracted from HadCM3L GCM simulations using Scotese- and Getech-based paleogeographic and pCO2 boundary conditions. We estimated the niche dimensions of turritellines using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and performed ordination analysis using kernel density estimation. MaxEnt model metrics showed that the Getech-based GCM outperformed the Scotese-based GCM. Geographic projections revealed minor differences in suitable habitat between the Maastrichtian and Danian in the Getech-based GCM, but overinflated predictions in the Scotese-based GCM. Niche overlap between the Maastrichtian and Danian was high, with both GCMs supporting niche similarity and equivalency. Our results suggest that differences in elevation model boundary conditions affected predicted distribution and niche patterns. This study offers a novel approach to understanding ecological persistence in invertebrates after mass extinction events, examines the robustness of GCM boundary conditions in paleoENM studies, and provides a framework for future paleoecological research on fossil invertebrates.
Species recognition is an essential part of biological and paleontological study. In gastropods, although species are genetic entities, shell morphology continues to be used as the primary source of information to recognize most species. While there are few directly tested cases, variations in conchological characters for modern species are expected to reflect underlying genetic differences that define a biological species, an assumption that is also applied to identify species in the fossil record. Additionally, how consistently shell shape differentiates gastropod species remains poorly understood. In this study, shell shape of Recent and Pliocene–Pleistocene fossil specimens of well-known intertidal gastropods (Littorinidae, periwinkles: †Littorina petricola, Littorina keenae, and the sister-species pair Littorina plena and Littorina scutulata) from the east Pacific was analyzed using landmark-based morphometrics and compared with published molecular data. For the extant species, there is a general positive relationship between shell shape and genetic differences. Discriminant function analyses indicate distantly related species can be more reliably recognized from their shells, while closely related species have a higher error. Fossils and recent specimens were classified with similar consistency. More work is needed to illuminate whether this case applies more widely.
This work describes and discusses Permian ammonoid faunas collected in two stratigraphic sections from the Las Delicias Formation of Coahuila state, northern Mexico. The taxa identified comprise 18 species, including Demarezites quirozii new species, as well as Mexicoceras smithi (Miller and Furnish, 1940), a variety of Mexicoceras guadalupense (Girty, 1908) here upgraded to specific status. The systematic analysis of the species found allowed us to recognize two middle Permian faunal zones, represented in ascending order by the Waagenoceras dieneri-Adrianites elegans Biozone from the Wordian and the Timorites schucherti-Cibolites uddeni Biozone from the Capitanian. Thus, the relative age of the Las Difuntas-18 section is established as Wordian (middle Guadalupian), whereas the Las Manuelas I section is Wordian–Capitanian (middle–upper Guadalupian). Both ammonoid zones are correlated with those recorded in Guadalupian outcrops from the southern USA, northeastern Japan, and southern China. This faunal resemblance between Mexican ammonoids and those taxa reported in these regions (USA, Japan, and China) supports the proposal that during the middle Guadalupian there was a marine corridor through the Panthalassa Ocean, which could have connected the Paleotethys and North American regions. It should be noted that ammonoids of both studied sections from the Las Delicias Formation were correlated better with West Texas (USA) and British Columbia (Canada) faunas, which are included in the North American Realm.
Active colloidal particles create flow around them due to non-equilibrium processes on their surfaces. In this paper, we infer the activity of such colloidal particles from the flow field created by them via deep learning. We first explain our method for one active particle, inferring the $2s$ mode (or the stresslet) and the $3t$ mode (or the source dipole) from the flow field data, along with the position and orientation of the particle. We then apply the method to a system of many active particles. We find excellent agreements between the predictions and the true values of activity. Our method presents a principled way to predict arbitrary activity from the flow field created by active particles.
We experimentally investigate the rotational dynamics of neutrally buoyant flat bodies of revolution (spheroids, disks and rings with different cross-sectional shapes) in shear flows. In the Stokes regime, the axis of revolution of these rigid particles moves in one of a family of closed periodic Jeffery orbits. Inertia is able to lift the orbit degeneracy and induces drift among several rotations towards limiting stable orbits. Furthermore, permanent alignment can be achieved for disks and rings with triangular cross-sectional shapes, provided the inertia is sufficiently high. The bifurcations between the different dynamics are compared with those predicted by small-inertia asymptotic theories and numerical simulations.
San Sebastián Bay, in southern South America, is an emblematic area because it represents a conflict of interest between the conservation of migratory birds and marine species and the exploitation of hydrocarbons. Given the little information available about the intertidal benthic communities in this bay, this study aims to analyse shell assemblages recovered from the beach, examining drilling and crushing predation on mollusc shells. Two bivalves, Darina solenoides and Mactra fuegiensis, are being preyed upon by three potential drilling predators: the naticid Falsilunatia limbata and the muricids Xymenopsis muriciformis and Trophon geversianus. The intensity of drilling predation was high in both bivalve prey, being higher in M. fuegiensis (27.4%) than in D. solenoides (18.8%). Additionally, there was no preference observed for a particular prey size and there was also no significant correlation between the size of the prey and the predator. However, site selectivity indicated that the predator showed a preference for the central sector in D. solenoides and the umbonal sector in M. fuegiensis, that could be explained by the life modes of both prey and how they are manipulated by their predators. Finally, regarding crushing predation, the shell condition of a significant number of muricids indicates damage most probably caused by decapod crabs. This work provides valuable insights into the biotic interactions within the intertidal communities of San Sebastián Bay, located in the cold-temperate Magellanic Region. It highlights the necessity for continued research and monitoring, particularly in an already conflictive context aggravated by climate change.
Fingering instabilities readily occur if a less viscous fluid displaces a more viscous fluid in a narrow gap due to the action of destabilising viscous forces. If the fluids are miscible, the instability can be suppressed in the limit of large advection as complicated flow structures are formed across the gap. Using a fluid to displace a monolayer of non-colloidal particles suspended in the same fluid, Luo et al. (2025 J. Fluid Mech. vol. 1011, A48) suppress the formation of the cross-gap structures and identify a new fingering mechanism which instead relies on long-range dipolar disturbance flows generated by the particle confinement.
We developed a cloud microphysics parameterization for the icosahedral nonhydrostatic modeling framework (ICON) model based on physics-informed machine learning (ML). By training our ML model on high-resolution simulation data, we enhance the representation of cloud microphysics in Earth system models (ESMs) compared to traditional parameterization schemes, in particular by considering the influence of high-resolution dynamics that are not resolved in coarse ESMs. We run a global, kilometer-scale ICON simulation with a one-moment cloud microphysics scheme, the complex graupel scheme, to generate 12 days of training data. Our ML approach combines a microphysics trigger classifier and a regression model. The microphysics trigger classifier identifies the grid cells where changes due to the cloud microphysical parameterization are expected. In those, the workflow continues by calling the regression model and additionally includes physical constraints for mass positivity and water mass conservation to ensure physical consistency. The microphysics trigger classifier achieves an F1 score of 0.93 on classifying unseen grid cells. The regression model reaches an $ {R}^2 $ score of 0.72 averaged over all seven microphysical tendencies on simulated days used for validation only. This results in a combined offline performance of 0.78. Using explainability techniques, we explored the correlations between input and output features, finding a strong alignment with the graupel scheme and, hence, physical understanding of cloud microphysical processes. This parameterization provides the foundation to advance the representation of cloud microphysical processes in climate models with ML, leading to more accurate climate projections and improved comprehension of the Earth’s climate system.
Dynamics of a spherical particle and the suspending low-Reynolds-number fluid confined between two concentric spherical walls were studied numerically. We calculated the particle’s hydrodynamic mobilities at various locations in the confined space. It was observed that the mobility is largest near the middle of confined space along the radial direction, and decays as the particle becomes closer to no-slip walls. At a certain confinement level, the maximal mobility occurs near the inner wall. We also calculated the drift velocity of the particle perpendicular to the external force. The magnitude of the drift velocity normalised by the velocity along the external force was found to depend on particle location and the confinement level; it is observed that the maximal drift velocity occurs near the wall. Fluid vortices in the confined space induced by particle motion were observed and analysed. In addition, we studied particle trajectories in the flow when the walls rotate at constant angular velocities. The externally applied force, rotation-induced flow and centrifugal/centripetal force, and particle–wall interaction lead to various modes of particle motion. This work lays the foundation to understand and manipulate particulate transport in microfluidic applications such as intracellular transport and encapsulation technologies.
Although the limits of life under individual extremes have been extensively studied, systematic experiments to quantify how combined extremes set the limits to life are lacking. We investigated the combined effects of extremes in temperature, salinity (NaCl) and pH on the growth limits of the marine bacterium Halomonas hydrothermalis, to test the hypothesis that limits to growth under combinations of the extremes establish a more restricted niche than the individual extremes. We show that the combination of supra-optimal temperature, pH and NaCl act synergistically in defining the limits of growth under multiple extremes. Although at optimal growth temperatures (30°C) maximum growth was achieved at pH 7, the maximum temperature limit of 43°C was achieved at pH 8. Under these conditions, the maximum NaCl concentration limit was 6.58% (wt/vol). Decreasing the temperature to 42 and 41/40°C increased the salinity limit to 7.01 % and 8.24 %, respectively. These data show that multiple extremes restrict the limits to growth of this organism to a greater extent than individual extremes and show how natural environments with extremes of temperature, pH and salinity could have restricted microbial diversity, or be uninhabitable, even when each individual extreme lies within the bounds of known microbial growth. These data imply that ‘maps’ of the limits to the biosphere based on laboratory-derived individual extremes may over-exaggerate growth limits in natural environments, which are rarely subject to single extremes, highlighting the need for multi-parameter analyses.
Recent ice cores from the Allan Hills, a blue ice area in Antarctica, are nearly 3 million years old. These cores extend ice core chronologies, enabling new insight into key climate periods such as the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. The interpretation of these climate records is complex because of the disturbed stratigraphy in this ice. Here, we present a new three-dimensional multitrack electrical conductivity measurement method (3D ECM) to resolve layer structure. We demonstrate this technique on a cumulative 60 m of two large-diameter (241 mm) ice cores, ALHIC2201 and ALHIC2302. Measurements were taken on the upper section of both cores due to better ice core quality in this shallow ice. We find well-defined and dipping layering in both cores, averaging 29° in ALHIC2201 and 69° in ALHIC2302 from horizontal. We observe a slight decrease in dip with depth in both cores, although it only achieves statistical significance in ALHIC2302. We discuss how this new method can be applied to enable accurate, high-resolution multi-proxy record development even in ice cores with steeply dipping layers. 3D ECM improves interpretation of blue ice area cores by providing accurate, non-destructive constraints on stratigraphy.
Large-scale spanwise motions in shock wave–turbulent boundary-layer interactions over a $ 25^{\circ }$ compression ramp at Mach 2.95 are investigated using large-eddy simulations. Spectral proper orthogonal decomposition (SPOD) identifies coherent structures characterised by low-frequency features and a large-scale spanwise wavelength of $ O(15\delta _{0})$, where $ \delta _{0}$ is the incoming boundary-layer thickness. The dominant frequency is at least one order of magnitude lower than that of the shock motions. These large-scale spanwise structures are excited near the shock foot and are sustained along the separation shock. Global stability analysis (GSA) is then employed to investigate the potential mechanisms driving these structures. The GSA identifies a stationary three-dimensional (3-D) mode at a wavelength of $ 15\delta _{0}$ with a similar perturbation field, particularly near the separation shock. Good agreement is achieved between the leading SPOD mode and the 3-D GSA mode both qualitatively and quantitatively, which indicates that global instability is primarily responsible for the large-scale spanwise structures surrounding the shock. The reconstructed turbulent separation bubble (TSB) using the 3-D global mode manifests as spanwise undulations, which directly induce the spanwise rippling of the separation shock. Furthermore, the coupled TSB motions in the streamwise and spanwise directions are examined. The TSB oscillates in the streamwise direction while simultaneously exhibiting spanwise undulations. The filtered wall-pressure signals indicate the dominant role of the streamwise motions.
This paper explores the role of barodiffusion in the dynamics of gas bubble growth in highly viscous gas-saturated magma subjected to instant decompression. A mathematical model describing the growth of a single isolated bubble is formulated in terms of the modified Rayleigh–Plesset equation coupled with the mass transfer and material balance equations. The model simultaneously takes into account both dynamic and diffusion mechanisms, including the effect of barodiffusion caused by emergence of a large pressure gradient in the liquid, which, in turn, is associated with formation of a diffusion boundary layer around the bubble. An analytical solution of the problem is found, the construction of which is based on the existence of a quasi-stationary state of the bubble growth process. It is shown that barodiffusion manifests itself at the initial and transient stages and under certain conditions can play a paramount role.