The use of the risk-neutral probability measure has proved to be very powerful for computing the prices of contingent claims in the context of complete markets, or the prices of redundant securities when the assumption of complete markets is relaxed. We show here that many other probability measures can be defined in the same way to solve different asset-pricing problems, in particular option pricing. Moreover, these probability measure changes are in fact associated with numéraire changes, this feature, besides providing a financial interpretation, permits efficient selection of the numéraire appropriate for the pricing of a given contingent claim and also permits exhibition of the hedging portfolio, which is in many respects more important than the valuation itself.

The key theorem of general numéraire change is illustrated by many examples, among which the extension to a stochastic interest rates framework of the Margrabe formula, Geske formula, etc.

This paper is concerned with the distibutions and the moments of the area and the local time of a random walk, called the Bernoulli meander. The limit behavior of the distributions and the moments is determined in the case where the number of steps in the random walk tends to infinity. The results of this paper yield explicit formulas for the distributions and the moments of the area and the local time for the Brownian meander.

We use the fact that the Palm measure of a stationary random measure is invariant to phase space change to generalize the light traffic formula initially obtained for stationary processes on a line to general spaces. This formula gives a first-order expansion for the expectation of a functional of the random measure when its intensity vanishes. This generalization leads to new algorithms for estimating gradients of functionals of geometrical random processes.

A biphase image, representing the normal and degenerated fibres in a vertical cross-section of a nerve, is considered. A random set model based on a Gibbs point process is proposed for the union of the two phases. A kind of independence between the degeneration process and the original fibres is defined and tested.

Let uε(t, x) be the position at time t of a point x on a string, where the time variable t varies in an interval I: = [0, T], T is a fixed positive time, and the space variable x varies in an interval J. The string is performing forced vibrations and also under the influence of small stochastic perturbations of intensity ε. We consider two kinds of random perturbations, one in the form of initial white noise, and the other is a nonlinear random forcing which involves the formal derivative of a Brownian sheet. When J has finite endpoints, a Dirichlet boundary condition is imposed for the solutions of the resulting non-linear wave equation. Assuming that the initial conditions are of sufficient regularity, we analyze the deviations uε(t, x) from u0(t, x), the unperturbed position function, as the intensity of perturbation ε ↓ 0 in the uniform topology. We also discuss some continuity properties of the realization of the solutions uε(t, x).

Simulation procedures for typical Johnson-Mehl crystals generated under various models for random nucleation are proposed. These procedures include algorithms for simulating spatio-time-inhomogeneous Poisson processes. Empirical results for a particular class of Johnson-Mehl tessellations in two and three dimensions show remarkably different crystals.

The present paper proposes a general approach for finding differential equations to evaluate probabilities of ruin in finite and infinite time. Attention is given to real-valued non-diffusion processes where a Markov structure is obtainable. Ruin is allowed to occur upon a jump or between the jumps. The key point is to define a process of conditional ruin probabilities and identify this process stopped at the time of ruin as a martingale. Using the theory of marked point processes together with the change-of-variable formula or the martingale representation theorem for point processes, we obtain differential equations for evaluating the probability of ruin.

Numerical illustrations are given by solving a partial differential equation numerically to obtain the probability of ruin over a finite time horizon.

Consider a sequence of possibly dependent random variables having the same marginal distribution F, whose tail 1−F is regularly varying at infinity with an unknown index − α < 0 which is to be estimated. For i.i.d. data or for dependent sequences with the same marginal satisfying mixing conditions, it is well known that Hill's estimator is consistent for α−1 and asymptotically normally distributed. The purpose of this paper is to emphasize the central role played by the tail empirical process for the problem of consistency. This approach allows us to easily prove Hill's estimator is consistent for infinite order moving averages of independent random variables. Our method also suffices to prove that, for the case of an AR model, the unknown index can be estimated using the residuals generated by the estimation of the autoregressive parameters.

A stationary (but not necessarily isotropic) Boolean model Y in the plane is considered as a model for overlapping particle systems. The primary grain (i.e. the typical particle) is assumed to be simply connected, but no convexity assumptions are made. A new method is presented to estimate the intensity y of the underlying Poisson process (i.e. the mean number of particles per unit area) from measurements on the union set Y. The method is based mainly on the concept of convexification of a non-convex set, it also produces an unbiased estimator for a (suitably defined) mean body of Y, which in turn makes it possible to estimate the mean grain of the particle process.

Models for epidemic spread of infections are formulated by defining intensities for relevant counting processes. It is assumed that an infected individual passes through k stages of infectivity. The times spent in the different stages are random. Many well-known models for the spread of infections can be described in this way. The models can also be applied to describe other processes of epidemic character (such as models for rumour spreading). Asymptotic results are derived both for the size and for the duration of the epidemic.

Non-parametric estimators of the distribution of the grain of the Boolean model are considered. The technique is based on the study of point processes of tangent points in different directions related to the Boolean model. Their second- and higher-order characteristics are used to estimate the mean body and the distribution of the typical grain. Central limit theorems for the improved estimator of the intensity and surface measures of the Boolean model are also proved.

Consider a homogeneous Poisson process in with density ρ, and add the origin as an extra point. Now connect any two points x and y of the process with probability g(x − y), independently of the point process and all other pairs, where g is a function which depends only on the Euclidean distance between x and y, and which is nonincreasing in the distance. We distinguish two critical densities in this model. The first is the infimum of all densities for which the cluster of the origin is infinite with positive probability, and the second is the infimum of all densities for which the expected size of the cluster of the origin is infinite. It is known that if , then the two critical densities are non-trivial, i.e. bounded away from 0 and ∞. It is also known that if g is of the form , for some r > 0, then the two critical densities coincide. In this paper we generalize this result and show that under the integrability condition mentioned above the two critical densities are always equal.

One result that is of both theoretical and practical importance regarding point processes is the method of thinning. The basic idea of this method is that under some conditions, there exists an embedded Poisson process in any point process such that all its arrival points form a sub-sequence of the Poisson process. We extend this result by showing that on the embedded Poisson process of a uni- or multi-variable marked point process in which interarrival time distributions may depend on the marks, one can define a Markov chain with a discrete state that characterizes the stage of the interarrival times. This implies that one can construct embedded Markov chains with countable state spaces for the state processes of many practical systems that can be modeled by such point processes.

Mecke's formula is concerned with a stationary random measure and shift-invariant measure on a locally compact Abelian group , and relates integrations concerning them to each other. For , we generalize this to a pair of random measures which are jointly stationary. The resulting formula extends the so-called Swiss Army formula, which was recently obtained as a generalization for Little's formula. The generalized Mecke formula, which is called GMF, can be also viewed as a generalization of the stationary version of H = λG. Under the stationary and ergodic assumptions, we apply it to derive many sample path formulas which have been known as extensions of H = λG. This will make clear what kinds of probabilistic conditions are sufficient to get them. We also mention a further generalization of Mecke's formula.

A generalized semi-Markov process with reallocation (RGSMP) was introduced to accommodate a large class of stochastic processes which cannot be analyzed by the well-known model of an ordinary generalized semi-Markov process (GSMP). For stationary RGSMP whose initial distribution has a product form, we show that, for a randomly chosen clock of a fixed insensitive type, if the lifetime of this clock is changed to infinity, then the background process is stationary under a certain time change. This implies that the expected time required for the tagged clock to consume a given amount x of resource, called the attained sojourn time, is a linear function of x. Such stationarity and linearity results are known for two special RGSMPs: ordinary GSMP and Kelly's symmetric queue. Our results not only extend them to a general RGSMP but also give more detailed formulas, which allow us to calculate for instance the expected attained sojourn time while the background process is in a given state. Furthermore, we remark that analogous results hold for GSMP with point-process input, in which the lifetimes of clocks of a fixed type form an arbitrary stationary sequence (of not necessarily independent random variables).

Monotonicity and correlation results for queueing network processes, generalized birth–death processes and generalized migration processes are obtained with respect to various orderings of the state space. We prove positive (e.g. association) and negative (e.g. negative association) correlations in space and positive correlations in time for different situations, in steady state as well as in the transient phase of the system. This yields exact bounds for joint probabilities in terms of their independent versions.

A recursive resampling method is discussed in this paper. Let X1, X2,…, Xn, be i.i.d. random variables with distribution function F and construct the empirical distribution function Fn. A new sample Xn+1 is drawn from Fn and the new empirical distribution function 1 in the wide sense, is computed from X1, X2,…, Xn, Xn+1. Then Xn+2 is drawn from 1 and 2 is obtained. In this way, Xn+m and m are found. It will be proved that m converges to a random variable almost surely as m goes to infinity and the limiting distribution is a compound beta distribution. In comparison with the usual non-recursive bootstrap, the main advantage of this procedure is a reduction in unconditional variance.

This paper provides an asymptotic estimate for the expected number of K-level crossings of the random trigonometric polynomial g1 cos x + g2 cos 2x+ … + gn cos nx where gj (j = 1, 2, …, n) are dependent normally distributed random variables with mean zero and variance one. The two cases of ρjr, the correlation coeffiecient between the j-th and r-th coefficients, being either (i) constant, or (ii) ρ∣j−r∣ρ, j ≠ r, 0 < ρ < 1, are considered. It is shown that the previous result for ρjr = 0 still remains valid for both cases.

In this paper, we develop the probabilistic foundations of the dynamic continuous choice problem. The underlying choice set is a compact metric space E such as the unit interval or the unit square. At each time point t, utilities for alternatives are given by a random function . To achieve a model of dynamic continuous choice, the theory of classical vector-valued extremal processes is extended to super-extremal processesY= {Yt, t > 0}. At any t > 0, Yt is a random upper semicontinuous function on a locally compact, separable, metric space E. General path properties of Y are discussed and it is shown that Y is Markov with state-space US(E). For each t > 0, Yt is associated.

For a compact metric E, we consider the argmax process M = {Mt, t > 0}, where . In the dynamic continuous choice application, the argmax process M represents the evolution of the set of random utility maximizing alternatives. M is a closed set-valued random process, and its path properties are investigated.

We consider the two-dimensional process {X(t), V(t)} where {V(t)} is Brownian motion with drift, and {X(t)} is its integral. In this note we derive the joint density function of T and V(T) where T is the time at which the process {X(t)} first returns to its initial value. A series expansion of the marginal density of T is given in the zero-drift case. When V(0) and the drift are both positive there is a positive probability that {Χ (t)} never returns to its initial value. We show how this probability grows for small drift. Finally, using the Kontorovich–Lebedev transform pair we obtain the escape probability explicitly for arbitrary values of the drift parameter.