The mean and the variance of the time S(t) spent by a system below a random threshold until t are obtained when the system level is modelled by the current value of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables appearing at the epochs of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. In the case of the homogeneous Poisson process, the asymptotic distribution of S(t)/t as t → ∞ is derived.

The limiting distributions of the sums of the lengths of four different kinds of runs of consecutive successes of Markov Bernoulli sequences are derived. It is shown that the limits are convolutions of several distributions involving the Bernoulli, the geometric and the Poisson or compound Poisson distributions.

We study the properties of sums of lower records from a distribution on [0,∞) which is either continuous, except possibly at the origin, or has support contained in the set of nonnegative integers. We find a necessary and sufficient condition for the partial sums of lower records to converge almost surely to a proper random variable. An explicit formula for the Laplace transform of the limit is derived. This limit is infinitely divisible and we show that all infinitely divisible random variables with continuous Lévy measure on [0,∞) originate as infinite sums of lower records.

This paper presents a degree-two probability lower bound for the union of an arbitrary set of events in an arbitrary probability space. The bound is designed in terms of the first-degree Bonferroni summation and pairwise joint probabilities of events, which are represented as weights of edges in a Hamilton-type circuit in a connected graph. The proposed lower bound strengthens the Dawson–Sankoff lower bound in the same way that Hunter and Worsley's degree-two upper bound improves the degree-two Bonferroni-type optimal upper bound. It can be applied to statistical inference in time series and outlier diagnoses as well as the study of dose response curves.

It has been observed that in many practical situations randomly stopped products of random variables have power law distributions. In this note we show that, in order for such a product to have a power law distribution, the only random indices are the exponentially distributed ones. We also consider a more general problem, which is closely related to problems concerning transformation from the central limit theorem to heavy-tailed distributions.

In this paper we consider the initial and asymptotic behaviour of the failure rate function resulting from mixtures of subpopulations and formation of coherent systems. In particular, it is shown that the failure rate of a mixture has the same limiting behaviour as the failure rate of the strongest subpopulation. A similar result holds for systems except the role of strongest subpopulation is replaced by strongest min path set.

We consider a random record model from a continuous parent X with cumulative distribution function F, where the number of available observations is geometrically distributed. We show that, if E(|X|) is finite, then so is E(|R n |) whenever R n , the nth upper record value, exists. We prove that appropriately chosen subsequences of E(R n ) characterize F and subsequences of E(R n − R n−1) identify F up to a location shift. We discuss some applications to the identification of wage-offer distributions in job search models.

We show how good multivariate Poisson mixtures can be approximated by multivariate Poisson distributions and related finite signed measures. Upper bounds for the total variation distance with applications to risk theory and generalized negative multinomial distributions are given. Furthermore, it turns out that the ideas used in this paper also lead to improvements in the Poisson approximation of generalized multinomial distributions.

We introduce a new class of lifetime distributions exhibiting a notion of positive ageing, called the ℳ-class, which is strongly related to the well-known ℒ-class. It is shown that distributions in the ℳ-class cannot have an undesirable property recently observed in an example of an ℒ-class distribution by Klar (2002). Moreover, it is shown how these and related classes of life distributions can be characterized by expected remaining lifetimes after a family of random times, thus extending the notion of NBUE. We give examples of ℳ-class distributions by using simple sufficient conditions, and we derive reliability bounds for distributions in this class.

In this paper, we consider the total variation distance between the distributions of two random sums S M and S N with different random summation indices M and N. We derive upper bounds, some of which are sharp. Further, bounds with so-called magic factors are possible. Better results are possible when M and N are stochastically or stop-loss ordered. It turns out that the solution of this approximation problem strongly depends on how many of the first moments of M and N coincide. As approximations, we therefore choose suitable finite signed measures, which coincide with the distribution of the approximating random sum S N if M and N have the same first moments.

In this paper, we investigate sooner and later waiting time problems for patterns S 0 and S 1 in multistate Markov dependent trials. The probability functions and the probability generating functions of the sooner and later waiting time random variables are studied. Further, the probability generating functions of the distributions of distances between successive occurrences of S 0 and between successive occurrences of S 0 and S 1 and of the waiting time until the rth occurrence of S 0 are also given.

The goal of this paper is to investigate properties of statistical procedures based on numbers of different patterns by using generating functions for the probabilities of a prescribed number of occurrences of given patterns in a random text. The asymptotic formulae are derived for the expected value of the number of words occurring a given number of times and for the covariance matrix. The form of the optimal linear test based on these statistics is established. These problems appear in testing for the randomness of a string of binary bits, DNA sequencing, source coding, synchronization, quality control protocols, etc. Indeed, the probabilities of repeated (overlapping) patterns are important in information theory (the second-order properties of relative frequencies)and molecular biology problems (finding patterns with unexpectedly low or high frequencies).

The traditional Dirichlet process is characterized by its distribution on a measurable partition of the state space - namely, the Dirichlet distribution. In this paper, we consider a generalization of the Dirichlet process and the family of multivariate distributions it induces, with particular attention to a special case where the multivariate density function is tractable.

Given a sequence S and a collection Ω of d words, it is of interest in many applications to characterize the multivariate distribution of the vector of counts U = (N(S,w 1), …, N(S,w d )), where N(S,w) is the number of times a word w ∈ Ω appears in the sequence S. We obtain an explicit bound on the error made when approximating the multivariate distribution of U by the normal distribution, when the underlying sequence is i.i.d. or first-order stationary Markov over a finite alphabet. When the limiting covariance matrix of U is nonsingular, the error bounds decay at rate O ((log n) / √n) in the i.i.d. case and O ((log n)3 / √n) in the Markov case. In order for U to have a nondegenerate covariance matrix, it is necessary and sufficient that the counted word set Ω is not full, that is, that Ω is not the collection of all possible words of some length k over the given finite alphabet. To supply the bounds on the error, we use a version of Stein's method.

Simple approximation techniques are developed exploiting relationships between generalized convex orders and appropriate probability metrics. In particular, the distance between s-convex ordered random variables is investigated. Results connecting positive or negative dependence concepts and convex ordering are also presented. These results lead to approximations and bounds for the distributions of sums of positively or negatively dependent random variables. Applications and extensions of the main results pertaining to compound Poisson, normal and exponential approximation are provided as well.

In this paper, we investigate k-out-of-n systems with independent and identically distributed components. Some characterizations of the IFR(2), DMRL, NBU(2) and NBUC classes of life distributions are obtained in terms of the monotonicity of the residual life given that the (n-k)th failure has occurred at time t ≥ 0. These results complement those reported by Belzunce, Franco and Ruiz (1999). Similar conclusions based on the residual life of a parallel system conditioned by the (n-k)th failure time are presented as well.

Connections between classification and lumpability in the stochastic Hopfield model (SHM) are explored and developed. A simplification of the SHM's complexity based upon its inherent lumpability is derived. Contributions resulting from this reduction in complexity include: (i) computationally feasible classification time computations; (ii) a development of techniques for enumerating the stationary distribution of the SHM's energy function; and (iii) a characterization of the set of possible absorbing states of the Markov chain associated with the zero temperature SHM.

In this paper we provide new results about stochastic comparisons of the excess lifetime at different times of a renewal process when the interarrival times belong to several ageing classes. We also provide a preservation result for the new better than used in the Laplace transform order ageing class for series systems.

The paper describes a new numerical method for the calculation of noncrossing probabilities for arbitrary boundaries by a Poisson process. We find the method to be simple in implementation, quick and efficient - it works reliably for Poisson processes of very high intensity n, up to several thousand. Hence, it can be used to detect unusual features in the finite-sample behaviour of empirical process and trace it down to very high sample sizes. It also can be used as a good approximation for noncrossing probabilities for Brownian motion and Brownian bridge, in particular when the boundaries are not regular. As a numerical example we demonstrate the divergence of normalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics from their prescribed limiting distributions (Eicker (1979), Jaeshke (1979)) for quite large n in contrast to very regular behaviour of statistics of Mason (1983). For the Brownian motion case we considered square-root, Daniels' (1969) and Grooneboom's (1989) boundaries.

Univariate probability inequalities have received extensive attention. It has been shown that under certain conditions, product-type bounds are valid and sharper than summation-type bounds. Although results concerning multivariate inequalities have appeared in the literature, product-type bounds in a multivariate setting have not yet been studied. This note explores an approach using graph theory and linear programming techniques to construct product-type lower bounds for the probability of the intersection among unions of k sets of events.