The network Laplacian spectral density calculation is critical in many fields, including physics, chemistry, statistics, and mathematics. It is highly computationally intensive, limiting the analysis to small networks. Therefore, we present two efficient alternatives: one based on the network’s edges and another on the degrees. The former gives the exact spectral density of locally tree-like networks but requires iterative edge-based message-passing equations. In contrast, the latter obtains an approximation of the spectral density using only the degree distribution. The computational complexities are 𝒪(|E|log(n)) and 𝒪(n), respectively, in contrast to 𝒪(n3) of the diagonalization method, where n is the number of vertices and |E| is the number of edges.

Vertebral osteomyelitis (VO) represents 4–10% of bone and joint infections. In Western countries, its incidence seems to increase, simultaneously with an increasing number of comorbidities among an ageing population. This study aimed to assess the evolution of VO epidemiology in France over the 2010–2019 decade. A nationwide cross-sectional study was conducted using the French hospital discharge data collected through the French diagnosis-related groups ‘Programme de Médicalisation des Systèmes d'Information’. VOs were detected with a previously validated case definition using International Classification of Diseases 10 (ICD-10) codes, implemented with the French current procedural terminology codes. The study population included all patients hospitalised in France during the 2010–2019 decade, aged 15 years old and more. Patient and hospital stay characteristics and their evolutions were described. During the study period, 42 105 patients were hospitalised for VO in France involving 60 878 hospital stays. The mean VO incidence was 7.8/100 000 over the study period, increasing from 6.1/100 000 in 2010 to 11.3/100 000 in 2019. The mean age was 64.8 years old and the sex ratio was 1.56. There were 31 341 (74.4%) patients with at least one comorbidity and 3059 (7.3%) deceased during their hospital stay. Even if rare, device-associated VOs (4450 hospital stays, 7.3%) highly increased over the period. The reliability of the method, based upon an exhaustive database and a validated case definition, provided an effective tool to compare data over time in real-life conditions to regularly update the epidemiology of VO.

As the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues around the world, understanding the transmission characteristics of COVID-19 is vital for prevention and control. We conducted the first study aiming to estimate and compare the relative risk of secondary attack rates (SARs) of COVID-19 in different contact environments. Until 26 July 2021, epidemiological studies and cluster epidemic reports of COVID-19 were retrieved from SCI, Embase, PubMed, CNKI, Wanfang and CBM in English and Chinese, respectively. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated in pairwise comparisons of SARs between different contact environments using the frequentist NMA framework, and the ranking of risks in these environments was calculated using the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA). Subgroup analysis was performed by regions. Thirty-two studies with 68 260 participants were identified. Compared with meal or gathering, transportation (RR 10.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.43–77.85), medical care (RR 11.68, 95% CI 1.58–86.61) and work or study places (RR 10.15, 95% CI 1.40–73.38) had lower risk ratios for SARs. Overall, the SUCRA rankings from the highest to the lowest were household (95.3%), meal or gathering (81.4%), public places (58.9%), daily conversation (50.1%), transportation (30.8%), medical care (18.2%) and work or study places (15.3%). Household SARs were significantly higher than other environments in the subgroup of mainland China and sensitive analysis without small sample studies (<100). In light of the risks, stratified personal protection and public health measures need to be in place accordingly, so as close contacts categorising and management.

Spatial data are a rich source of information for actuarial applications: knowledge of a risk’s location could improve an insurance company’s ratemaking, reserving or risk management processes. Relying on historical geolocated loss data is problematic for areas where it is limited or unavailable. In this paper, we construct spatial embeddings within a complex convolutional neural network representation model using external census data and use them as inputs to a simple predictive model. Compared to spatial interpolation models, our approach leads to smaller predictive bias and reduced variance in most situations. This method also enables us to generate rates in territories with no historical experience.

Reliable hepatitis C prevalence estimates are crucial for a good follow-up of the indicators to eliminate hepatitis by 2030 as set by the World Health Organization. In Belgium, no recent national population-based hepatitis C virus (HCV) seroprevalence estimate is available. The current study estimated HCV prevalence as part of the first Belgian Health Examination Survey, which was organized in 2018 as a second stage of the sixth Belgian Health Interview Survey. This national population-based cross-sectional study resulted in a weighted national HCV seroprevalence of 0.02% (95% CI 0.00–0.07%). The results show a much lower HCV seroprevalence compared to previous studies.

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the use of mobile operator data to support public policy, although without a universal governance framework for its application. This article describes five principles to guide and assist statistical agencies, mobile network operators and intermediary service providers, who are actively working on projects using mobile operator data to support governments in monitoring the effectiveness of its COVID-19 related interventions. These are principles of necessity and proportionality, of professional independence, of privacy protection, of commitment to quality, and of international comparability. Compliance with each of these principles can help maintain public trust in the handling of these sensitive data and their results, and therefore keep citizen support for government policies. Three projects (in Estonia, Ghana, and the Gambia) were described and reviewed with respect to the compliance and applicability of the five principles. Most attention was placed on privacy protection, somewhat at the expense of the quality of the compiled indicators. The necessity and proportionality in the choice of mobile operator data can be very well justified given the need for timely, frequent and granular indicators. Explicitly addressing the five principles in the preparation of a project should give confidence to the statistical agency and its partners, that enough care has been exercised in the set up and implementation of the project, and should convey trust to public and government in the use mobile operator data for policy purposes.

Assimilation of continuously streamed monitored data is an essential component of a digital twin; the assimilated data are used to ensure the digital twin represents the monitored system as accurately as possible. One way this is achieved is by calibration of simulation models, whether data-derived or physics-based, or a combination of both. Traditional manual calibration is not possible in this context; hence, new methods are required for continuous calibration. In this paper, a particle filter methodology for continuous calibration of the physics-based model element of a digital twin is presented and applied to an example of an underground farm. The methodology is applied to a synthetic problem with known calibration parameter values prior to being used in conjunction with monitored data. The proposed methodology is compared against static and sequential Bayesian calibration approaches and compares favourably in terms of determination of the distribution of parameter values and analysis run times, both essential requirements. The methodology is shown to be potentially useful as a means to ensure continuing model fidelity.

A case of listeriosis occurred in a hospitalised patient in England in July 2017. Analysis by whole genome sequencing of the Listeria monocytogenes from the patient's blood culture was identified as clonal complex (CC) 121. This culture was indistinguishable to isolates from sandwiches, salads and the maufacturing environment of Company X which supplied these products widely to the National Health Service. Whilst an inpatient, the case was served sandwiches produced by this company on 12 occasions. No other cases infected by this type were detected in the UK between 2016 and 2020. Between 2016 and 2020, more than 3000 samples of food, food ingredients and environmental swabs from this company were tested. Listeria monocytogenes contamination rates declined after July 2017 from 31% to 0.3% for salads and 3% to 0% for sandwiches. A monophyletic group of 127 L. monocytogenes CC121 isolates was recovered during 2016–2019 and was used to estimate the time of the most recent common ancestor as 2014 (95% CI of between 2012 and 2016). These results represent persistent contamination of equipment, food contact surfaces and foods at a food manufacturer by a single L. monocytogenes strain. Colonisation and persistent contamination of food and production environments are risks for public health.

Since the discovery of ABO blood types, there has been mounting evidence of the association between blood types and infectious diseases. However, so far, there is rarely available research about the potential role of ABO blood types in haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) infection. Our aim was to investigate the relationship between ABO blood types and the development of HFRS infection in Qingdao, China. We carried out a retrospective study enrolling 116 HFRS patients as the case group and 373 healthy subjects as the control group. ABO blood type distribution was analysed using the Chi-square test and logistic regression analysis. Results showed that the distribution of ABO blood types between the two groups was significantly different (X2 = 18.151, P < 0.05). Blood type B was less frequently observed [odds ratio (OR), 0.404; confidence interval (CI), 0.238–0.684; P < 0.01], while blood type AB was more frequently observed in the case group (OR, 2.548; CI, 1.427–4.549; P < 0.01). Since significantly more males were affected than females, we further analysed the data by gender as well as blood types and obtained consistent results for males. Our findings indicated that populations with blood type AB might be more prone to HFRS infection, whereas those with blood type B might be less susceptible to HFRS infection, which will help to make risk stratification in infection control.

Little is known about respiratory viruses infection in Guinea. Influenza surveillance has not been implemented in Guinea mainly because of the paucity of laboratory infrastructure and capacity. This paper presents the first influenza surveillance data in Guinea.

Swabs were obtained from August 2018 through December 2019 at influenza sentinel sites and transported to the Institut National de Santé Publique for testing. Ribonucleic acid was extracted and tested for the presence of influenza A and B by real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Positive samples were further characterised to determine the subtypes and lineages of influenza viruses.

A total of 862 swabs were collected and tested. Twenty-three per cent of samples tested positive for influenza A and B viruses. Characterisation of positive specimens identified influenza A/H1N1pmd09 (2.5%), influenza A/H3N2 (57.3%), influenza B/Victoria lineage (36.7%) and 7 (3.5%) influenza B with undetermined lineage. Influenza B virus activity clustered in August through November while influenza A/H3N2 displayed two clusters of activities that appeared in May through August and November through December.

For the first time in Guinea, the epidemiology, diversity and period of circulation of influenza viruses were studied. The results indicate the predominance and the periods of activities of influenza B Victoria lineage and influenza A/H3N2 which are important information for preventive strategies. It is warranted to extend the influenza surveillance to other parts of Guinea to better understand the epidemiology of the viruses and monitor the emergence of influenza strains with pandemic potential.

We expand the critical point for site percolation on the d-dimensional hypercubic lattice in terms of inverse powers of 2d, and we obtain the first three terms rigorously. This is achieved using the lace expansion.

The star-shaped ordering between probability distributions is a common way to express aging properties. A well-known criterion was proposed by Saunders and Moran [(1978). On the quantiles of the gamma and F distributions. Journal of Applied Probability 15(2): 426–432], to order families of distributions depending on one real parameter. However, the lifetime of complex systems usually depends on several parameters, especially when considering heterogeneous components. We extend the Saunders and Moran criterion characterizing the star-shaped order when the multidimensional parameter moves along a given direction. A few applications to the lifetime of complex models, namely parallel and series models assuming different individual components behavior, are discussed.

Motivated by analogous questions in the setting of Steiner triple systems and Latin squares, Nenadov, Sudakov and Wagner [Completion and deficiency problems, Journal of Combinatorial Theory Series B, 2020] recently introduced the notion of graph deficiency. Given a global spanning property $\mathcal P$ and a graph $G$, the deficiency $\text{def}(G)$ of the graph $G$ with respect to the property $\mathcal P$ is the smallest non-negative integer t such that the join $G*K_t$ has property $\mathcal P$. In particular, Nenadov, Sudakov and Wagner raised the question of determining how many edges an n-vertex graph $G$ needs to ensure $G*K_t$ contains a $K_r$-factor (for any fixed $r\geq 3$). In this paper, we resolve their problem fully. We also give an analogous result that forces $G*K_t$ to contain any fixed bipartite $(n+t)$-vertex graph of bounded degree and small bandwidth.

We study linear subset regression in the context of the high-dimensional overall model $y = \vartheta +\theta ' z + \epsilon $ with univariate response y and a d-vector of random regressors z, independent of $\epsilon $. Here, “high-dimensional” means that the number d of available explanatory variables is much larger than the number n of observations. We consider simple linear submodels where y is regressed on a set of p regressors given by $x = M'z$, for some $d \times p$ matrix M of full rank $p < n$. The corresponding simple model, that is, $y=\alpha +\beta ' x + e$, is usually justified by imposing appropriate restrictions on the unknown parameter $\theta $ in the overall model; otherwise, this simple model can be grossly misspecified in the sense that relevant variables may have been omitted. In this paper, we establish asymptotic validity of the standard F-test on the surrogate parameter $\beta $, in an appropriate sense, even when the simple model is misspecified, that is, without any restrictions on $\theta $ whatsoever and without assuming Gaussian data.