We observe the frog model, an infinite system of interacting random walks, on ℤ with an asymmetric underlying random walk. For certain initial frog distributions we construct an explicit formula for the moments of the leftmost visited site, as well as their asymptotic scaling limits as the drift of the underlying random walk vanishes. We also provide conditions in which the lower bound can be scaled to converge in probability to the degenerate distribution at 1 as the drift vanishes.

A point process is R-dependent if it behaves independently beyond the minimum distance R. In this paper we investigate uniform positive lower bounds on the avoidance functions of R-dependent simple point processes with a common intensity. Intensities with such bounds are characterised by the existence of Shearer's point process, the unique R-dependent and R-hard-core point process with a given intensity. We also present several extensions of the Lovász local lemma, a sufficient condition on the intensity and R to guarantee the existence of Shearer's point process and exponential lower bounds. Shearer's point process shares a combinatorial structure with the hard-sphere model with radius R, the unique R-hard-core Markov point process. Bounds from the Lovász local lemma convert into lower bounds on the radius of convergence of a high-temperature cluster expansion of the hard-sphere model. This recovers a classic result of Ruelle (1969) on the uniqueness of the Gibbs measure of the hard-sphere model via an inductive approach of Dobrushin (1996).

We model in a dynamic way an insider's private information flow which is successively augmented by a family of initial enlargement of filtrations. According to the a priori available information, we propose several density hypotheses which are presented in hierarchical order from the weakest to the strongest. We compare these hypotheses, in particular, with Jacod's one, and deduce conditional expectations under each of them by providing consistent expressions with respect to the common reference filtration. Finally, this framework is applied to a default model with insider information on the default threshold and some numerical illustrations are performed.

Subsolutions to the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation associated with a moderate deviations approximation are used to design importance sampling changes of measure for stochastic recursive equations. Analogous to what has been done for large deviations subsolution-based importance sampling, these schemes are shown to be asymptotically optimal under the moderate deviations scaling. We present various implementations and numerical results to contrast their performance, and also discuss the circumstances under which a moderate deviation scaling might be appropriate.

We consider the numerical approximation of the filtering problem in high dimensions, that is, when the hidden state lies in ℝd with large d. For low-dimensional problems, one of the most popular numerical procedures for consistent inference is the class of approximations termed particle filters or sequential Monte Carlo methods. However, in high dimensions, standard particle filters (e.g. the bootstrap particle filter) can have a cost that is exponential in d for the algorithm to be stable in an appropriate sense. We develop a new particle filter, called the space‒time particle filter, for a specific family of state-space models in discrete time. This new class of particle filters provides consistent Monte Carlo estimates for any fixed d, as do standard particle filters. Moreover, when there is a spatial mixing element in the dimension of the state vector, the space‒time particle filter will scale much better with d than the standard filter for a class of filtering problems. We illustrate this analytically for a model of a simple independent and identically distributed structure and a model of an L-Markovian structure (L≥ 1, L independent of d) in the d-dimensional space direction, when we show that the algorithm exhibits certain stability properties as d increases at a cost 𝒪(nNd2), where n is the time parameter and N is the number of Monte Carlo samples, which are fixed and independent of d. Our theoretical results are also supported by numerical simulations on practical models of complex structures. The results suggest that it is indeed possible to tackle some high-dimensional filtering problems using the space‒time particle filter that standard particle filters cannot handle.

We study a stochastic differential equation driven by a Poisson point process, which models the continuous change in a population's environment, as well as the stochastic fixation of beneficial mutations that might compensate for this change. The fixation probability of a given mutation increases as the phenotypic lag Xt between the population and the optimum grows larger, and successful mutations are assumed to fix instantaneously (leading to an adaptive jump). Our main result is that the process is transient (i.e. converges to -∞, so that continued adaptation is impossible) if the rate of environmental change v exceeds a parameter m, which can be interpreted as the rate of adaptation in case every beneficial mutation becomes fixed with probability 1. If v < m, the process is Harris recurrent and possesses a unique invariant probability measure, while in the limiting case m = v, Harris recurrence with an infinite invariant measure or transience depends upon additional technical conditions. We show how our results can be extended to a class of time varying rates of environmental change.

In this paper we use the method of conjugate duality to investigate a class of stochastic optimal control problems where state systems are described by stochastic differential equations with delay. For this, we first analyse a stochastic convex problem with delay and derive the expression for the corresponding dual problem. This enables us to obtain the relationship between the optimalities for the two problems. Then, by linking stochastic optimal control problems with delay with a particular type of stochastic convex problem, the result for the latter leads to sufficient maximum principles for the former.

We consider community detection in degree-corrected stochastic block models. We propose a spectral clustering algorithm based on a suitably normalized adjacency matrix. We show that this algorithm consistently recovers the block membership of all but a vanishing fraction of nodes, in the regime where the lowest degree is of order log(n) or higher. Recovery succeeds even for very heterogeneous degree distributions. The algorithm does not rely on parameters as input. In particular, it does not need to know the number of communities.

In this paper we study the treewidth of the random geometric graph, obtained by dropping n points onto the square [0,√n]2 and connecting pairs of points by an edge if their distance is at most r=r(n). We prove a conjecture of Mitsche and Perarnau (2014) stating that, with probability going to 1 as n→∞, the treewidth of the random geometric graph is 𝜣(r√n) when lim inf r>rc, where rc is the critical radius for the appearance of the giant component. The proof makes use of a comparison to standard bond percolation and with a little bit of extra work we are also able to show that, with probability tending to 1 as k→∞, the treewidth of the graph we obtain by retaining each edge of the k×k grid with probability p is 𝜣(k) if p>½ and 𝜣(√log k) if p<½.

We study the joint degree counts in linear preferential attachment random graphs and find a simple representation for the limit distribution in infinite sequence space. We show weak convergence with respect to the p-norm topology for appropriate p and also provide optimal rates of convergence of the finite-dimensional distributions. The results hold for models with any general initial seed graph and any fixed number of initial outgoing edges per vertex; we generate nontree graphs using both a lumping and a sequential rule. Convergence of the order statistics and optimal rates of convergence to the maximum of the degrees is also established.

Let X(t), t ∈ ℝd, be a centered Gaussian random field with continuous trajectories and set ξu(t) = X(f(u)t), t ∈ ℝd, with f some positive function. Using classical results we can establish the tail asymptotics of ℙ{Γ(ξu) > u} as u → ∞ with Γ(ξu) = supt ∈ [0, T]d ξu(t), T > 0, by requiring that f(u) tends to 0 as u → ∞ with speed controlled by the local behavior of the correlation function of X. Recent research shows that for applications, more general functionals than the supremum should be considered and the Gaussian field can depend also on some additional parameter τu ∈ K say ξu,τu(t), t ∈ ℝd. In this paper we derive uniform approximations of ℙ{Γ(ξu,τu) > u} with respect to τu, in some index set Ku as u → ∞. Our main result has important theoretical implications; two applications are already included in Dȩbicki et al. (2016), (2017). In this paper we present three additional applications. First we derive uniform upper bounds for the probability of double maxima. Second, we extend the Piterbarg–Prisyazhnyuk theorem to some large classes of homogeneous functionals of centered Gaussian fields ξu. Finally, we show the finiteness of generalized Piterbarg constants.

During the last decades, quite a number of interacting particle systems have been introduced and studied in the crossover area of mathematics and statistical physics. Some of these can be seen as simplistic models for opinion formation processes in groups of interacting people. In the model introduced by Deffuant et al. (2000), agents that are neighbors on a given network graph, randomly meet in pairs and approach a compromise if their current opinions do not differ by more than a given threshold value θ. We consider the two-sided infinite path ℤ as the underlying graph and extend existing models to a setting in which opinions are given by probability distributions. Similar to what has been shown for finite-dimensional opinions, we observe a dichotomy in the long-term behavior of the model, but only if the initial narrow mindedness of the agents is restricted.

A service system with multiple types of customers, arriving according to Poisson processes, is considered. The system is heterogeneous in that the servers can also be of multiple types. Each customer has an independent, exponentially distributed service time, with the mean determined by its type. Multiple customers (possibly of different types) can be placed for service into one server, subject to `packing' constraints, which depend on the server type. Service times of different customers are independent, even if served simultaneously by the same server. The large-scale asymptotic regime is considered such that the customer arrival rates grow to ∞. We consider two variants of the model. For the infinite-server model, we prove asymptotic optimality of the greedy random (GRAND) algorithm in the sense of minimizing the weighted (by type) number of occupied servers in steady state. (This version of GRAND generalizes that introduced by Stolyar and Zhong (2015) for homogeneous systems, with all servers of the same type.) We then introduce a natural extension of the GRAND algorithm for finite-server systems with blocking. Assuming subcritical system load, we prove existence, uniqueness, and local stability of the large-scale system equilibrium point such that no blocking occurs. This result strongly suggests a conjecture that the steady-state blocking probability under the algorithm vanishes in the large-scale limit.

We consider two players, starting with m and n units, respectively. In each round, the winner is decided with probability proportional to each player's fortune, and the opponent loses one unit. We prove an explicit formula for the probability p(m, n) that the first player wins. When m ~ Nx0, n ~ Ny0, we prove the fluid limit as N → ∞. When x0 = y0, z → p(N, N + z√N) converges to the standard normal cumulative distribution function and the difference in fortunes scales diffusively. The exact limit of the time of ruin τN is established as (T - τN) ~ N-βW1/β, β = ¼, T = x0 + y0. Modulo a constant, W ~ χ21(z02 / T2).

We investigate the estimation of the perimeter of a set by a graph cut of a random geometric graph. For Ω ⊆ D = (0, 1)d with d ≥ 2, we are given n random independent and identically distributed points on D whose membership in Ω is known. We consider the sample as a random geometric graph with connection distance ε > 0. We estimate the perimeter of Ω (relative to D) by the, appropriately rescaled, graph cut between the vertices in Ω and the vertices in D ∖ Ω. We obtain bias and variance estimates on the error, which are optimal in scaling with respect to n and ε. We consider two scaling regimes: the dense (when the average degree of the vertices goes to ∞) and the sparse one (when the degree goes to 0). In the dense regime, there is a crossover in the nature of the approximation at dimension d = 5: we show that in low dimensions d = 2, 3, 4 one can obtain confidence intervals for the approximation error, while in higher dimensions one can obtain only error estimates for testing the hypothesis that the perimeter is less than a given number.

Mapping every simplex in the Delaunay mosaic of a discrete point set to the radius of the smallest empty circumsphere gives a generalized discrete Morse function. Choosing the points from a Poisson point process in ℝn, we study the expected number of simplices in the Delaunay mosaic as well as the expected number of critical simplices and nonsingular intervals in the corresponding generalized discrete gradient. Observing connections with other probabilistic models, we obtain precise expressions for the expected numbers in low dimensions. In particular, we obtain the expected numbers of simplices in the Poisson–Delaunay mosaic in dimensions n ≤ 4.

We consider transport networks with nodes scattered at random in a large domain. At certain local rates, the nodes generate traffic flows according to some navigation scheme in a given direction. In the thermodynamic limit of a growing domain, we present an asymptotic formula expressing the local traffic flow density at any given location in the domain in terms of three fundamental characteristics of the underlying network: the spatial intensity of the nodes together with their traffic generation rates, and of the links induced by the navigation. This formula holds for a general class of navigations satisfying a link-density and a sub-ballisticity condition. As a specific example, we verify these conditions for navigations arising from a directed spanning tree on a Poisson point process with inhomogeneous intensity function.

In this paper we compute the absorbing time Tn of an n-dimensional discrete-time Markov chain comprising n components, each with an absorbing state and evolving in mutual exclusion. We show that the random absorbing time Tn is well approximated by a deterministic time tn that is the first time when a fluid approximation of the chain approaches the absorbing state at a distance 1 / n. We provide an asymptotic expansion of tn that uses the spectral decomposition of the kernel of the chain as well as the asymptotic distribution of Tn, relying on extreme values theory. We show the applicability of this approach with three different problems: the coupon collector, the erasure channel lifetime, and the coupling times of random walks in high-dimensional spaces.

An rth-order extremal process Δ(r) = (Δ(r)t)t≥0 is a continuous-time analogue of the rth partial maximum sequence of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. Studying maxima in continuous time gives rise to the notion of limiting properties of Δt(r) as t ↓ 0. Here we describe aspects of the small-time behaviour of Δ(r) by characterising its upper and lower classes relative to a nonstochastic nondecreasing function bt > 0 with limt↓bt = 0. We are then able to give an integral criterion for the almost sure relative stability of Δt(r) as t ↓ 0, r = 1, 2, . . ., or, equivalently, as it turns out, for the almost sure relative stability of Δt(1) as t ↓ 0.

In this paper we propose a model for biological neural nets where the activity of the network is described by Hawkes processes having a variable length memory. The particularity in this paper is that we deal with an infinite number of components. We propose a graphical construction of the process and build, by means of a perfect simulation algorithm, a stationary version of the process. To implement this algorithm, we make use of a Kalikow-type decomposition technique. Two models are described in this paper. In the first model, we associate to each edge of the interaction graph a saturation threshold that controls the influence of a neuron on another. In the second model, we impose a structure on the interaction graph leading to a cascade of spike trains. Such structures, where neurons are divided into layers, can be found in the retina.