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This article presents a fairness principle for evaluating decision-making based on predictions: a decision rule is unfair when the individuals directly impacted by the decisions who are equal with respect to the features that justify inequalities in outcomes do not have the same statistical prospects of being benefited or harmed by them, irrespective of their socially salient morally arbitrary traits. The principle can be used to evaluate prediction-based decision-making from the point of view of a wide range of antecedently specified substantive views about justice in outcome distributions.
Interventions in environmental conservation are intended to make things better, not worse. Yet unintended and unanticipated consequences plague environmental conservation; key is how uncertainty plays out. Insights from the intellectual humility literature offer constructive strategies for coming to terms with uncertainty. Strategies such as self-distancing and self-assessment of causal complexity can be incorporated into conservation decision-making processes. Including reflection on what we know and do not know in the decision-making process potentially reduces unintended and unanticipated consequences of environmental conservation and management decisions. An important caution is not to have intellectual humility legitimate failing to act in the face of uncertainty.
The article describes measures developed to counter the spread of coronavirus infection in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The first cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Kazakhstan were detected on March 13, 2020, among people who arrived from Germany. After declaring the state of emergency in the country, the Ministry of Healthcare of the Republic of Kazakhstan began to formulate and implement a comprehensive package of measures aimed at slowing down and stopping the transmission of infection, preventing outbreaks, ensuring optimal care for all patients, especially the seriously ill, minimizing the negative impact of the pandemic on health systems, social services, and economic activities. Developed set of restrictive measures was approved by the Country Office of Word Health Organization (WHO) in Kazakhstan, being later adapted by the European Union (EU) countries and applied in Kyrgyzstan. In addition, article identifies Kazakhstan’s experience in creating epidemiological surveillance systems, studying virus mutations, and the clinical aspects of dealing with it to combat the infection. It also indicates the impact of the epidemic on health-care workers and the development of measures to protect them, strengthening infection prevention, and control in medical organizations.
Low self-confidence in patients with psychosis is common. This can lead to higher symptom severity, withdrawal from activities, and low psychological well-being. There are effective psychological techniques to improve positive self-beliefs but these are seldom provided in psychosis services. With young people with lived experience of psychosis we developed a scalable automated VR therapy to enhance positive-self beliefs.
Aims:
The aim was to conduct a proof of concept clinical test of whether the new VR self-confidence therapy (Phoenix) may increase positive self-beliefs and psychological well-being.
Method:
Twelve young patients with non-affective psychosis and with low levels of positive self-beliefs participated. Over 6 weeks, patients were provided with a stand-alone VR headset so that they could use Phoenix at home and were offered weekly psychologist meetings. The outcome measures were the Oxford Positive Self Scale (OxPos), Brief Core Schema Scale, and Warwick-Edinburgh Well-being Scale (WEMWBS). Satisfaction, adverse events and side-effects were assessed.
Results:
Eleven patients provided outcome data. There were very large end-of-treatment improvements in positive self-beliefs (OxPos mean difference = 32.3; 95% CI: 17.3, 47.3; Cohen’s d=3.0) and psychological well-being (WEMWBS mean difference = 11.2; 95% CI: 8.0, 14.3; Cohen’s d=1.5). Patients rated the quality of the VR therapy as: excellent (n=9), good (n=2), fair (n=0), poor (n=0). An average of 5.3 (SD=1.4) appointments were attended.
Conclusions:
Uptake of the VR intervention was high, satisfaction was high, and side-effects extremely few. There were promising indications of large improvements in positive self-beliefs and psychological well-being. A randomized controlled clinical evaluation is warranted.
Civic education is essential to the health of any democracy. When COVID-19 emerged in the spring of 2020, almost all civic education efforts went online. This increased interest in the effectiveness of online civic education. Does it lead to similar outcomes as in-person education? I used student evaluations from a youth civic engagement conference co-run by Latinx and Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) non-profit organizations to compare learning outcomes on multiple dimensions of civic education, from an in-person conference in 2019 and an online conference in 2020. I find that although students improved over the course of both conferences, the 2019 in-person conference yielded slightly greater improvement in civic knowledge confidence than the online conference. Other dimensions—verifiable knowledge, self-efficacy, and community consciousness—increased after participation in the conference in both years; however, the increases were similar between the online and in-person formats.
In this commentary we reflect on Shaalan, Eid, and Tourky's (2022) article in which they investigated the Chinese concept and practice of guanxi in the Middle East,1 a region in which wasta represents the common way of informal networking.2 While we encourage and welcome research into informal networks, we have serious concerns about the conceptual and methodological approaches taken by Shaalan et al. (2022) in investigating informal networks in the Middle East and explain herein why we do not believe guanxi should have been used in place of wasta.
The refraction of surface gravity waves by currents leads to spatial modulations in the wave field and, in particular, in the significant wave height. We examine this phenomenon in the case of waves scattered by a localised current feature, assuming (i) the smallness of the ratio between current velocity and wave group speed, and (ii) a swell-like, highly directional wave spectrum. We apply matched asymptotics to the equation governing the conservation of wave action in the four-dimensional position–wavenumber space. The resulting explicit formulas show that the modulations in wave action and significant wave height past the localised current are controlled by the vorticity of the current integrated along the primary direction of the swell. We assess the asymptotic predictions against numerical simulations using WAVEWATCH III for a Gaussian vortex. We also consider vortex dipoles to demonstrate the possibility of ‘vortex cloaking’ whereby certain currents have (asymptotically) no impact on the significant wave height. We discuss the role of the ratio of the two small parameters characterising assumptions (i) and (ii) above, and show that caustics are significant only for unrealistically large values of this ratio, corresponding to unrealistically narrow directional spectra.
We propose a constitutive equation for flows of gases in high-rate regimes where the Navier–Stokes theory breaks down. The model generalizes the Navier–Stokes relation and agrees well with that model in all lower rate flows examined. Our proposed constitutive relation is calibrated with the method of objective molecular dynamics (OMD) using families of compressible and incompressible flows of Lennard-Jones argon. The constitutive relation makes use of the higher-order objective strain rates due to Rivlin and Ericksen (J. Rat. Mech. Anal., vol. 4, 1955, pp. 323–425). The constitutive relation is fully frame-indifferent, and the macroscopic flows corresponding to the OMD simulations are exact solutions for the proposed model. The model is shown to agree with atomistic results much better than the Navier–Stokes equations in the transition regime. The success of our model indicates that it is not higher gradients that become important in the high-rate regime, but rather higher rates of change of the strain rate tensor. While somewhat more complicated to implement than the Navier–Stokes relation, the proposed model is expected to be compatible with existing methods of computational fluid dynamics and may extend those methods to higher rate regimes, while preserving their ability to handle large spatial scales.
We carry out direct numerical simulation (DNS) of turbulent flow in rough pipes. Two types of irregular roughness are investigated, namely a grit-blasted and a graphite surface. A wide range of Reynolds numbers is tested, from the laminar up to the fully rough regime, attempting to replicate Nikuradse's pioneering study. Despite the large relative roughness, outer-layer similarity is achieved at high Reynolds number as hypothesised by Townsend, with deviations from the smooth wall case of 4 % for the grit-blasted surface and 13 % for the graphite surface. This makes it possible to define a roughness function and the equivalent sand-grain roughness. The results are compared with those obtained in plane channels, with small differences pointing to the residual influence of the duct cross-sectional shape in the presence of relatively large roughness. The computed friction factors behave similar to those Nikuradse's chart, with differences in terms of the friction factor in the laminar region and of the critical Reynolds number, which are partly absorbed by using the hydraulic radius as reference length scale. The distributions of the velocity fluctuations intensities point to a isotropisation of turbulence in the near-wall region resulting from the roughness, with influence of the roughness geometry. Comparison of the computed equivalent sand-grain roughness height suggest that existing correlations suffer from poor predictive power, at least for surfaces with large relative roughness.