We in this paper employ a penalized moment selection procedure to identify valid and relevant moments for estimating and testing forecast rationality within the flexible loss framework proposed by Elliott et al. (2005). We motivate the selection of moments in a high-dimensional setting, outlining the fundamental mechanism of the penalized moment selection procedure and demonstrating its implementation in the context of forecast rationality, particularly in the presence of potentially invalid moment conditions. The selection consistency and asymptotic normality are established under conditions specifically tailored to economic forecasting. Through a series of Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluate the finite sample performance of penalized moment estimation in utilizing available instrument information effectively within both estimation and testing procedures. Additionally, we present an empirical analysis using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia to illustrate the practical utility of the suggested methodology. The results indicate that the proposed post-selection estimator for forecaster’s attitude performs comparably to the oracle estimator by efficiently incorporating available information. The power of rationality and symmetry tests leveraging penalized moment estimation is substantially enhanced by minimizing the impact of uninformative instruments. For practitioners assessing the rationality of externally generated forecasts, such as those in the Greenbook, the proposed penalized moment selection procedure could offer a robust approach to achieve more efficient estimation outcomes.

The heating effect of electromagnetic waves in ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRFs) in magnetic confinement fusion device is different in different plasma conditions. In order to evaluate the ICRF heating effect in different plasma conditions, we conducted a series of experiments and corresponding TRANSP simulations on the EAST tokamak. Both simulation and experimental results show that the effect of ICRF heating is poor at low core electron density. The decrease in electron density changes the left-handed electric field near the resonant layer, resulting in a significant decrease in the power absorbed by the hydrogen fundamental resonance. However, quite a few experiments must be performed in plasma conditions with low electron density. It is necessary to study how to make ICRF heating best in low electron density plasma. Through a series of simulation scans of the parallel refractive index (n//) of the ICRF antenna, it is concluded that the change of the ICRF antenna n// will lead to the change of the left-handed electric field, which will change the fundamental absorption of ICRF power by the hydrogen minority ions. Fully considering the coupling of ion cyclotron wave at the tokamak boundary and the absorption in the plasma core, optimizing the ICRF antenna structure and selecting appropriate parameters such as parallel refractive index, minority ion concentration, resonance layer position, plasma current and core electron temperature can ensure better heating effect in the ICRF heating experiments in the future EAST upgrade. These results have important implications for the enhancement of the auxiliary heating effect of EAST and other tokamaks.

The incorporation of trace metals into land snail shells may record the ambient environmental conditions, yet this potential remains largely unexplored. In this study, we analyzed modern snail shells (Cathaica sp.) collected from 16 sites across the Chinese Loess Plateau to investigate their trace metal compositions. Our results show that both the Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios exhibit minimal intra-shell variability and small inter-shell variability at individual sites. A significant positive correlation is observed between the shell Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios across the plateau, with higher values being recorded in the northwestern sites where less monsoonal rainfall is received. We propose that shell Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios, which record the composition of soil solution, may be controlled by the Rayleigh distillation in response to prior calcite precipitation. Higher rainfall amounts may lead to a lower degree of Rayleigh distillation and thus lower shell Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios. This is supported by the distinct negative correlation between summer precipitation and shell Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios, enabling us to reconstruct summer precipitation amounts using the Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios of Cathaica sp. shells. The potential application of these novel proxies may also be promising for other terrestrial mollusks living in the loess deposits globally.

This study aimed to compare the clinical outcomes of using refrigerated versus pre-warmed media for preparing time-lapse dishes in in vitro fertilization (IVF). Patients undergoing their first IVF/ICSI cycle were divided into two groups. The control group used pre-warmed culture media, while the experimental group used refrigerated culture media. The osmotic pressure of the culture droplets in both groups was tested. No statistical differences were found between the two groups’ basic data. The proportion of air microbubbles affecting imaging significantly decreased (4.55% vs. 37.97%, P < 0.001) when using pre-warmed media. However, the blastocyst formation rate (56.62% vs. 49.70%, P = 0.046) and total high-quality embryo rate (22.26% vs. 17.06%, P = 0.047) were significantly higher in the refrigerated media group compared to the pre-warmed media group. The higher rate of high-quality embryos in the refrigerated media group might result in a higher single embryo transfer rate (45.10% vs. 18.52%, P = 0.020) and implantation rate (58.23% vs. 34.69%, P = 0.010). From day –1 to day 1, osmolality increased, with the P-3.5 group showing a significant elevation compared to the other three groups. After 5 days of incubation, the osmotic pressure of group R-4.0 was significantly lower than that of groups P-3.5, P-4.0 and P-3.5. In conclusion, refrigerated culture media dishes helped stabilize the osmotic pressure of the culture microenvironment and reduce water evaporation. The refrigerated group showed a higher rate of high-quality embryos and live births, although pre-warmed culture media effectively reduced the occurrence of air microbubbles that affect embryo imaging in the next day’s dishes.

A species of acanthocephalan collected from the hindgut of Larimichthys crocea was identified as Longicollum pagrosomi Yamaguti, 1935 based on morphological characteristics. The complete mitochondrial genome of this parasite was sequenced. The mitogenome exhibited a circular structure with a total length of 14 632 bp, containing 12 protein coding genes (PCGs), 2 ribosomal RNAs (rRNAs), 22 transfer RNAs (tRNAs) and 2 major non-coding regions. The most frequently used start codon was GTG, and the most abundant amino acid was valine. The phylogenetic analyses of the mitogenome using Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood methods showed that the genus Longicollum formed a sister clade to the genus Pomphorhynchus, supporting the monophyly of Pomphorhynchus. This study reported a new host for L. pagrosomi and revealed the first complete mitogenome sequence of the genus Longicollum.

This paper presents an investigation of the secondary saturation characteristics of a HfTe2 saturable absorber. Pulse energies of 5.85 and 7.4 mJ were demonstrated with a high-order Hermite–Gaussian (HG) laser and a vortex laser, respectively, using alexandrite as the gain medium. To the best of our knowledge, these are the highest pulse energies directly generated with HG and vortex lasers. To broaden the applications of high-energy pulsed HG and vortex lasers, wavelength tuning in the region of 40 nm was achieved using an etalon.

We document numerous occurrences of pump-and-dump schemes (P&Ds) targeting cryptocurrencies, which tend to trigger short-term episodes that feature dramatic increases in prices, volume, and volatility, followed by quick reversals. The evidence we document, including price run-ups before P&Ds start, suggests wealth transfers from outsiders to insiders. Our findings based on wallet-level data are consistent with the reasoning that gambling preferences, overconfidence, and naïve reinforcement learning help explain P&D participation. Finally, exploiting two natural experiments in which exchanges altered P&D policies, we find evidence consistent with the idea that P&Ds contribute to reduced cryptocurrency liquidity and lower prices.

Machine learning has already shown promising potential in tiled-aperture coherent beam combining (CBC) to achieve versatile advanced applications. By sampling the spatially separated laser array before the combiner and detuning the optical path delays, deep learning techniques are incorporated into filled-aperture CBC to achieve single-step phase control. The neural network is trained with far-field diffractive patterns at the defocus plane to establish one-to-one phase-intensity mapping, and the phase prediction accuracy is significantly enhanced thanks to the strategies of sin-cos loss function and two-layer output of the phase vector that are adopted to resolve the phase discontinuity issue. The results indicate that the trained network can predict phases with improved accuracy, and phase-locking of nine-channel filled-aperture CBC has been numerically demonstrated in a single step with a residual phase of λ/70. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that machine learning has been made feasible in filled-aperture CBC laser systems.

Cleavers, an annual or winter annual broadleaf weed in the Rubiaceae family, has become troublesome in the wheat fields of the Huang-Huai-Hai region in China due to its herbicide resistance. In North America the common name of the plant is stickwilly; in China it known as cleavers. Four populations of cleavers (JS-15, SD-10, JS-22, and AH-20) were collected from wheat fields in Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui provinces, where the plant was not being controlled with applications of florasulam. The aims of this study were to identify the herbicide resistance patterns and investigate the mechanism underlying florasulam resistance. Whole-plant dose-response experiments revealed a notable variation in the degree of resistance exhibited by three specific populations toward florasulam, in comparison to the most sensitive population (S and AH-9), with the highest resistance index reaching 841.4. A gene-sequencing assay for acetolactate synthase (ALS) found that plants that were resistant to ALS from the JS-15, JS-22, and AH-20 populations had a Trp-574-Leu mutation, while no known ALS resistance mutations were discovered in SD-10 plants. In vitro ALS enzyme activity assays also indicated that the extractable ALS from JS-15, JS-22, and AH-20 plants was greatly resistant to florasulam relative to plants that are susceptible. Additionally, according to the resistance rating system, all resistant populations were susceptible to carfentrazone-ethyl + MCPA-sodium and bipyrazone + fluroxypyr-methyl. AH-20, JS-15, and JS-22 exhibited resistance to selected ALS, 4-hydroxyphenylpyruvate dioxygenase (HPPD), and photosystem II (PS II) complex inhibitors, demonstrating RR and RRR resistance profiles, whereas AH-9 displayed sensitivity to virtually all tested agents. The SD-10 population, on the other hand, exhibited RR and RRR resistance to HPPD and PS II inhibitors, and sensitivity to tribenuron-methyl. These findings indicate that a target site–based mechanism drives resistance to the ALS inhibitor florasulam in populations of cleavers, but nontarget site resistance may also have contributed to resistance, but this was not investigated. Other herbicides with different sites of action were tested and were active against cleavers.