We study the dynamics of a delayed predator–prey system with Holling type II functional response, focusing on the interplay between time delay and carrying capacity. Using local and global Hopf bifurcation theory, we establish the existence of sequences of bifurcations as the delay parameter varies and prove that the connected components of global Hopf branches are nested under suitable conditions. A novel contribution is the demonstration that the classical limit cycle of the non-delayed system belongs to a connected component of the global Hopf bifurcation in Fuller’s space. Our analysis combines rigorous functional differential equation theory with continuation methods to characterize the structure and boundedness of bifurcation branches. We further demonstrate that delays can induce oscillatory coexistence at lower carrying capacities than in the corresponding ordinary differential equation model, yielding counterintuitive biological insights. The results contribute to the broader theory of global bifurcations in delay differential equations while providing new perspectives on nonlinear population dynamics.

This work investigates the dynamics of positive classical solutions to a diffusive susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible epidemic model with a mass-action incidence mechanism in spatially heterogeneous environments. Under minimal assumptions on the initial data, the global existence of classical solutions is established. Moreover, the eventual boundedness of these solutions is proved when either the spatial domain has dimension five or lower or the susceptible and exposed subpopulations share the same diffusion rate. Next, we define the basic reproduction number, $\mathcal{R}_0$, and demonstrate that the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable when $\mathcal{R}_0$ is sufficiently small. However, due to the complex interaction between population movement and spatial variation in transmission rates, we find that the disease may persist even when $\mathcal{R}_0$ is slightly less than one. In such cases, we show that the system admits at least two endemic equilibrium (EE) solutions, an outcome not observed under the frequency-dependent incidence mechanism. These results highlight the significant influence of the transmission mechanism on disease dynamics. Furthermore, we examine the spatial profiles of the EE solutions when diffusion rates are small. Our analysis suggests that limiting the movement of the susceptible population can significantly reduce disease prevalence, provided that the total population remains below a specific threshold. In contrast, restricting the movement of the infected, exposed, or recovered populations alone may not eradicate the disease. Overall, our findings provide important insights into the spatial dynamics of infectious diseases and may offer guidance for developing and implementing effective containment strategies.

We study a size-structured tree growth model from [4–6], described by the nonlinear renewal equation $\phi(t) = \mathfrak{F} \phi_t, \ \phi_t \in L^1_\rho(\mathbb{R}_{-}),$ with reproduction, death, and growth rates $\beta$, $\mu$, and $g$. We prove that, under mild conditions on these rates, the equation generates a semiflow in $L^1_\rho(\mathbb{R}_{-})$ that is permanent and possesses a compact global attractor $\mathcal{A}$. If $\beta$ is monotone, $\mathcal{A}$ reduces to a single asymptotically stable equilibrium attracting all compact sets with positive initial data. Adapting an approach from [21], originally developed for simpler renewal equations, we investigate stability and persistence in this more complex setting via the one-dimensional recurrence $b_{n+1} = \mathfrak{F} b_n,$ thereby complementing the functional-analytic framework of [13].

We consider a critical bisexual branching process in a random environment generated by independent and identically distributed random variables. Assuming that the process starts with a large number of pairs N, we prove that its extinction time is of order $\ln^2 N$. Interestingly, this result is valid for a general class of mating functions. Among these are the functions describing the monogamous and polygamous behavior of couples, as well as the function reducing the bisexual branching process to the simple one.

Recent research has demonstrated the importance of spatial diffusion and environmental heterogeneity in influencing the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. At the same time, human mobility patterns have been shown to exhibit scale-free, nonlocal dynamics characterized by an anomalous Lévy process diffusion, which is mathematically represented by nonlocal equations involving fractional Laplacian operators. To investigate the effects of environmental heterogeneity and long-range geographical disease transmission, we propose a time-periodic susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model that incorporates anomalous diffusion and spatial heterogeneity. The key issues of this paper include the existence and stability of both disease-free and endemic periodic equilibria, as well as the impact of diffusion rates and fractional powers on the spatial distribution of these periodic states. Our analytical findings indicate that spatio-temporal heterogeneity promotes disease persistence and that the fractional power can modulate the transmission threshold.

This paper studies a time-switching advection-diffusion system modelling the competition between Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in heterogeneous environments. The switching mechanism is induced by periodic releases of sterile Ae. albopictus mosquitoes, which are active only during their sexual lifespan within each release period. By defining a minimal release amount and four critical release period thresholds, we establish the periodic dynamics of the system, providing new insights into optimal control strategies of mosquitoes. Specifically, the trivial steady state is globally asymptotically stable if sterile releases are sufficiently frequent and abundant, which ensures the eradication of both Aedes species. For less frequent sterile releases, we prove the global asymptotic stability of the two semi-trivial periodic solutions and demonstrate the existence of a coexisting periodic solution, indicating cases where mosquito control fails. Numerical simulations are presented to validate our theoretical findings.

In this paper, we consider a reaction-diffusion equation that models the time-almost periodic response to climate change within a straight, infinite cylindrical domain. The shifting edge of the habitat is characterised by a time-almost periodic function, reflecting the varying pace of environmental changes. Note that the principal spectral theory is an important role to study the dynamics of reaction-diffusion equations in time heterogeneous environment. Initially, for time-almost periodic parabolic equations in finite cylindrical domains, we develop the principal spectral theory of such equations with mixed Dirichlet–Neumann boundary conditions. Subsequently, we demonstrate that the approximate principal Lyapunov exponent serves as a definitive threshold for species persistence versus extinction. Then, the existence, exponential decay and stability of the forced wave solutions $U(t,x_{1},y)=V\left (t,x_{1}-\int ^{t}_{0}c(s)ds,y\right )$ are established. Additionally, we analyse how fluctuations in the shifting speed affect the approximate top Lyapunov exponent.

Due to the widespread availability of effective antiretroviral therapy regimens, average lifespans of persons with HIV (PWH) in the United States have increased significantly in recent decades. In turn, the demographic profile of PWH has shifted. Older persons comprise an ever-increasing percentage of PWH, with this percentage expected to further increase in the coming years. This has profound implications for HIV treatment and care, as significant resources are required not only to manage HIV itself, but also associated age-related comorbidities and health conditions that occur in ageing PWH. Effective management of these challenges in the coming years requires accurate modelling of the PWH age structure. In the present work, we introduce several novel mathematical approaches related to this problem. We present a workflow combining a PDE model for the PWH population age structure, where publicly available HIV surveillance data are assimilated using the Ensemble Kalman Inversion algorithm. This procedure allows us to rigorously reconstruct the age-dependent mortality trends for PWH over the last several decades. To project future trends, we introduce and analyse a novel variant of the dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), nonnegative DMD. We show that nonnegative DMD provides physically consistent projections of mortality and HIV diagnosis while remaining purely data-driven, and not requiring additional assumptions. We then combine these elements to provide forecasts for future trends in PWDH mortality and demographic evolution in the coming years.

We consider the propagation dynamics of a single species with a birth pulse and living in a shifting environment driven by climate change. We describe how birth pulse and environment shift jointly impact the propagation properties. We show that a moderate environment shifting speed promotes the spatial–temporal propagation represented by a stable forced KPP wave, and that the birth pulse shrinks the survival region.

We consider a population consisting of two types of individuals, each of which can produce offspring on two different islands (in particular, the islands can be interpreted as active or dormant individuals). We model the evolution of the population of each type using a two-type Feller diffusion with immigration and study the frequency of one type on each island, when the total population size on each island is forced to be constant at a dense set of times. This leads to the solution of a stochastic differential equation, which we call the asymmetric two-island frequency process. We derive properties of this process and obtain a large population limit as the total size of each island tends to infinity. Additionally, we compute the fluctuations of the process around its deterministic limit. We establish conditions under which the asymmetric two-island frequency process has a moment dual. The dual is a continuous-time two-dimensional Markov chain that can be interpreted in terms of mutation, branching, pairwise branching, coalescence, and a novel mixed selection–migration term.

We investigate a Leslie-type prey–predator system with an Allee effect to understand the dynamics of populations under stress. First, we determine stability conditions and conduct a Hopf bifurcation analysis using the Allee constant as a bifurcation parameter. At low densities, we observe that a weak Allee effect induces a supercritical Hopf bifurcation, while a strong effect leads to a subcritical one. Notably, a stability switch occurs, and the system exhibits multiple Hopf bifurcations as the Allee effect varies. Subsequently, we perform a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of the model to parameter variations. Additionally, together with the numerical examples, the FAST (Fourier amplitude sensitivity test) approach is employed to examine the sensitivity of the prey–predator system to all parameter values. This approach identifies the most influential factors among the input parameters on the output variable and evaluates the impact of single-parameter changes on the dynamics of the system. The combination of detailed bifurcation and sensitivity analysis bridges the gap between theoretical ecology and practical applications. Furthermore, the results underscore the importance of the Allee effect in maintaining the delicate balance between prey and predator populations and emphasize the necessity of considering complex ecological interactions to accurately model and understand these systems.

Seasonal changes and cyclical human activities (such as periodic fishing bans, Wolbachia-based mosquito population control, and school term breaks) have significant impacts on population dynamics. We propose a general switching dynamical model to describe these periodic changes. The existence, uniqueness and stability of positive periodic solutions are thoroughly investigated. The results are stated in terms of an introduced threshold value. To demonstrate their practicability, the obtained results are applied to two biological situations.

This article is concerned with the spreading speed and traveling waves of a lattice prey–predator system with non-local diffusion in a periodic habitat. With the help of an associated scalar lattice equation, we derive the invasion speed for the predator. More specifically, when the dispersal kernel of the predator is exponentially bounded, the invasion speed is finite and can be characterized in terms of principal eigenvalues; while the dispersal kernel is algebraically decaying, the invasion speed is infinite and the accelerated spreading rate is obtained. Furthermore, the existence and non-existence of traveling waves connecting the semi-equilibrium point to a uniformly persistent state are established.

In this paper, we report the spatiotemporal dynamics of an intraguild predation (IGP)-type predator–prey model incorporating harvesting and prey-taxis. We first discuss the local and global existence of the classical solutions in N-dimensional space. It is found that the model has a global classical solution when controlling the prey-taxis coefficient in a certain range. Thereafter, we focus on the existence of the steady-state bifurcation. Moreover, we theoretically investigate the properties of the bifurcating solution near the steady-state bifurcation critical threshold. As a consequence, the spatial pattern formation of this model can be theoretically confirmed. Importantly, by means of rigorous theoretical derivation, we provide discriminant criteria on the stability of the bifurcating solution. Finally, the complicated patterns are numerically displayed. It is demonstrated that the harvesting and prey-taxis significantly affect the pattern formation of this IGP-type predator–prey model. Our main results of this paper reveal that (i) The repulsive prey-taxis could destabilize the spatial homogeneity, while the attractive prey-taxis effect and self-diffusion will stabilize the spatial homogeneity of this model. (ii) Numerical results suggest that over-harvesting for prey or predators is not advisable, it can lead to an ecological imbalance due to a significant reduction in population numbers. However, harvesting within a certain range is a feasible approach.

In this work, we consider a class of uniformly elliptic operators with a nonlocal term and mixed boundary conditions in bounded domains. We establish the existence of a principal eigenvalue and provide a result that offers both sufficient and necessary conditions for the validity of the maximum principle. As a consequence of these findings, we conduct a detailed study of an eigenvalue problem with an indefinite weight, as well as establish existence and uniqueness results for a logistic-type equation and prove some blow-up results.

This paper is concerned with a predator–prey system with hunting cooperation and prey-taxis under homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions. We establish the existence of globally bounded solutions in two dimensions. In three or higher dimensions, the global boundedness of solutions is obtained for the small prey-tactic coefficient. By using hunting cooperation and prey species diffusion as bifurcation parameters, we conduct linear stability analysis and find that both hunting cooperation and prey species diffusion can drive the instability to induce Hopf, Turing and Turing–Hopf bifurcations in appropriate parameter regimes. It is also found that prey-taxis is a factor stabilizing the positive constant steady state. We use numerical simulations to illustrate various spatiotemporal patterns arising from the abovementioned bifurcations including spatially homogeneous and inhomogeneous time-periodic patterns, stationary spatial patterns and chaotic fluctuations.

Coffee berry diseases (CBD) pose significant threats to coffee production worldwide, affecting the livelihoods of millions of farmers and the global coffee market. Fractional calculus provides a powerful framework for describing non-local and memory-dependent phenomena, making it suitable for modelling the long-range interactions inherent in CBD spread. This study aims to formulate and analyse fractional order model for CBD transmission dynamics in the sense of Atangana–Baleanu–Caputo. Fixed point theorems were utilised to test the existence and uniqueness of the model’s solutions using fractional order. The basic reproduction number was calculated utilising the next-generation matrix. The model has locally asymptotically stable equilibrium positions (disease-free and endemic). Furthermore, the Lyapunov function was used to conduct a global stability analysis of the equilibrium locations. A numerical simulation of the CBD model was created using the fractional Adam–Bashforth–Moulton approach to validate the analytical findings. Our findings contribute to the development of more accurate predictive models and inform the design of targeted interventions to mitigate the impact of CBD on coffee production systems.

In this paper, we consider a delayed discrete single population patch model in advective environments. The individuals are subject to both random and directed movements, and there is a net loss of individuals at the downstream end due to the flow into a lake. Choosing time delay as a bifurcation parameter, we show the existence of Hopf bifurcations for the model. In homogeneous non-advective environments, it is well known that the first Hopf bifurcation value is independent of the dispersal rate. In contrast, for homogeneous advective environments, the first Hopf bifurcation value depends on the dispersal rate. Moreover, we show that the first Hopf bifurcation value in advective environments is larger than that in non-advective environments if the dispersal rate is large or small, which suggests that directed movements of the individuals inhibit the occurrence of Hopf bifurcations.

This article offers an advanced and novel investigation into the intricate propagation dynamics of the Belousov–Zhabotinsky system with non-local delayed interaction, which exhibits dynamical transition structure from bistable to monostable. We first solved the enduring open problem concerning the existence, uniqueness and the speed sign of the bistable travelling waves. In the monostable case, we developed and derived new results for the minimal wave speed selection, which, as an application, further improved the existing investigations on pushed and pulled wavefronts. Our results can provide new estimate to the minimal speed as well as to the determinacy of the transition parameters. Moreover, these results can be directly applied to standard localised models and delayed reaction diffusion models by choosing appropriate kernel functions.

Infection mechanism plays a significant role in epidemic models. To investigate the influence of saturation effect, a nonlocal (convolution) dispersal susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model with saturated incidence is considered. We first study the impact of dispersal rates and total population size on the basic reproduction number. Yang, Li and Ruan (J. Differ. Equ. 267 (2019) 2011–2051) obtained the limit of basic reproduction number as the dispersal rate tends to zero or infinity under the condition that a corresponding weighted eigenvalue problem has a unique positive principal eigenvalue. We remove this additional condition by a different method, which enables us to reduce the problem on the limiting profile of the basic reproduction number into that of the spectral bound of the corresponding operator. Then we establish the existence and uniqueness of endemic steady states by a equivalent equation and finally investigate the asymptotic profiles of the endemic steady states for small and large diffusion rates to provide reference for disease prevention and control, in which the lack of regularity of the endemic steady state and Harnack inequality makes the limit function of the sequence of the endemic steady state hard to get. Finally, we find whether lowing the movements of susceptible individuals can eradicate the disease or not depends on not only the sign of the difference between the transmission rate and the recovery rate but also the total population size, which is different from that of the model with standard or bilinear incidence.