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This article charts the history of how system dynamics modelling (SDM) has evolved in the field of natural resource management from a relatively niche subject to a tool of increasing practical relevance and impact, and encourages practitioners to continue this trend with some suggestions for further promoting SDM for natural resource impact assessment and policy support. It not only traces key developments and thematic shifts but also advocates for SDM as a critical approach for addressing today’s complex and interconnected resource challenges. Starting in the 1970s with the Limits to Growth and a burgeoning environmental movement, the path of SDM applications for natural resource management and assessment is outlined. Models turned in the 1980s to a dominantly ecological focus, considering lake ecosystems and predator–prey dynamics, and tended to be largely single-sector focused, with feedbacks and complexity being used to describe sectoral system dynamics. Since about 2000, SDM has been applied to broader and more integrated natural resource systems and has frequently included stakeholders and participatory methods to co-develop models for increasingly practical applications and support. The emergence of the water–energy–food nexus around 2010 lends itself to SDM studies, including the assessment of climatic and socio-economic futures on resources supply, demand and security, and the impact of policy implementation across whole systems. Stakeholder engagement, participatory modelling, online tools and interfaces, machine learning and targeted, policy-facing studies are opportunities to further promote SDM and systems thinking for natural resource management in an increasingly complex and interconnected world, enhancing its practical impact.
The world is facing multiple interconnected crises, from climate change and economic instability to social inequalities and geopolitical tensions. These crises do not occur in isolation; instead, they interact, reinforce each other, and create unexpected ripple effects – forming what is known as a polycrisis. Traditional ways of analysing problems often fail to grasp these interdependencies, making it difficult to find effective responses. We draw on system archetypes to describe and exemplify three polycrisis patterns. These provide a structured way to analyse how multiple crises unfold and interact, as well as insights into how to navigate such complexity.
Technical summary:
The concept of a polycrisis describes the complex interconnections between global issues, which can lead to unexpected emergent behaviours and the possible convergence of undesirable impacts. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for anticipating compounded effects and for identifying leverage points for effective intervention. We propose that system archetypes – generic structures in system dynamics that capture recurring patterns of behaviour – can serve as a useful analytical tool to study polycrises. Specifically, we reinterpret three key system archetypes in this context: Converging Constraints (based on the Limits to Growth system archetype), Deepening Divides (based on Success to the Successful system archetype), and Crisis Deferral (drawing from the Policy Resistance system archetype). These patterns illustrate how resource limitations, structural inequalities, and short-term solutions can sustain or worsen crisis dynamics. Using real-world examples, we show how polycrisis patterns can be employed to map feedback structures between interacting crises and to guide effective interventions. Our work contributes to a more structured and systemic understanding of polycrises, by providing a tool to help researchers and policymakers better anticipate, navigate, and mitigate their effects.
Social media summary:
‘Polycrisis patterns reveal how crises like climate change, economic instability, and inequality interact, amplifying their impacts’.
Adolescent girls are vulnerable and deserve the utmost attention to complement their nutrition. This scoping review endeavours to identify the determinants of malnutrition among adolescent girls in Pakistan and to comprehend the interventions to improve their health and nutritional status. This review of the literature was conducted using Google Scholar, PubMed/Medline, Scopus and Web of Science for articles published between 2015 and 2024. MeSH terms used for search were as follows: adolescent, youth, health, malnutrition, nutrition interventions, systems approach. In addition, reports from the WHO, the UN, the World Bank, the Government of Pakistan and other organisations were also critically reviewed. Moreover, this paper has used the Pathways framework, which advocates multi-sectoral approaches for poverty reduction. In most developing countries, the compromised nutritional status of adolescent girls, compounded by poverty, has life-long health and economic consequences, as well as their infants having nutritional deficits. They are expected to grow as stunted children. Abundant evidence has shown that nutrition-sensitive and nutrition-specific interventions can improve their nutritional status and that of subsequent generations. There is a dire need to involve key stakeholders from health, education, nutrition, population, women’s development, social welfare and other relevant sectors. It is imperative to design interventions for adolescent girls in each country’s context to break the intergenerational cycle of malnutrition and to improve economic productivity. Political commitment and effective governance along with policy coherence are required for their healthy transitions into adulthood.
Achieving sustainability on the ground poses a challenge in decoding globallydefined goals, such as sustainable development goals, and aligning them withlocal perspectives and realities. This decoding necessitates theunderstanding of the multifaceted dimensions of the sustainabilitychallenges in a given context, including their underlying causes. In casestudies from Brazilian drylands, we illustrate how an enhanced multiscaleparticipatory method, combined with systems thinking tools, can shed lighton systemic structures that currently entrench unsustainable developmenttrajectories. This method offers insights into co-designing potentialpathways toward sustainable futures and unlocking transformative capacitiesof the local population.
Technical summary
Translating United Nations global sustainable development goals (SDGs) intoactions that address local realities and aspirations is an urgent challenge.It requires new thinking and approaches that foster the discussion about themain challenges to implementing the SDGs at multiple levels. This paperpresents a novel multiscale participatory approach that combines the popularThree Horizons diagram with the formalism of causal loop diagrams in systemsthinking. We present results from six multi-stakeholder dialogues heldacross drylands in Brazil with a focus on desired futures aligned with SDGs.Focusing on identifying the root causes and systemic structures ofunsustainability, participants identified lock-ins, leverage points, andinterventions for how these could be changed. The core lock-ins are thediscontinuity of public policies, and the historical land and powerconcentration reinforced by the current expansion of large-scaleagricultural, mining, and energy projects. The proposed interventions arestructural and – if implemented – would contribute toachieving SDGs in an integrated manner. The unique approach developed inthis study can provide leverage as it bridges the inclusivity ofparticipatory visioning with the change potential of systems thinking toolsto tackle root causes and unleash societal transformations.
Social media summary
We are not achieving SDGs. Understanding root causes of unsustainability iscritical to move toward sustainable and just futures.
We discuss the emerging technology of digital twins (DTs) and the expected demands as they scale to represent increasingly complex, interconnected systems. Several examples are presented to illustrate core use cases, highlighting a progression to represent both natural and engineered systems. The forthcoming challenges are discussed around a hierarchy of scales, which recognises systems of increasing aggregation. Broad implications are discussed, encompassing sensing, modelling, and deployment, alongside ethical and privacy concerns. Importantly, we endorse a modular and peer-to-peer view for aggregate (interconnected) DTs. This mindset emphasises that DT complexity emerges from the framework of connections (Wagg et al. [2024, The philosophical foundations of digital twinning, Preprint]) as well as the (interpretable) units that constitute the whole.
A 'paradigm shift' is currently taking place in leadership. Despite the considerable and influential body of existing theory, leaders were not prepared for the continuous disruptions of the digital era. What happens and how it happens depends on networks. The newly emerging science of networks opens an entirely new horizon on how to lead people, design organizations, and make sense of complex social environments. To be effective, leadership needs to assimilate and adapt to the dynamics of networks. This implies a focus on the quality of connections, how energy and information flow through these connections, and the development of a heightened awareness for the whole. Based on the undeniable logic of networks, the shift in organizational structures which has already taken place will only accelerate in the years to come. Network leadership invites leaders to leave the VUCA world behind and embrace a new WISE world of stability and emergence.
Viewed from the perspective of public policy, behavioural public policy (BPP) faces challenges in four main areas: Systems, Impatience, Nudging, and Scaling. To address these challenges, several suggestions are proposed. First, understanding how BPP interventions unfold in complex systems requires better diagnostics and the development of predictive and generative models of human behaviour. Second, the rapid pace of policy processes necessitates a shift towards generating timely and fit-for-purpose evidence. Third, maximising the opportunities presented by BPP, beyond merely ‘nudging’, demands the early and proactive application of behavioural science in the policy cycle. Fourth, achieving widespread impact in BPP initiatives means considering scale-up from the start. Lastly, the consistent and comprehensive integration of behavioural science into standard policymaking practices would support sustainable progress in addressing these challenges.
Almost half of the global population lives with inadequate or unsafe water, sanitation or hygiene (WASH) services. The consequences of this situation include negative impacts on individual and public health, the environment and economic production. The WASH sector is linked with other international development sectors and is embedded within complex social, environmental and governance structures. This complexity led us to reflect on how WASH sector practitioners and researchers are applying systems thinking tools and techniques to progress an agenda of sustainable and universal WASH services. From this perspective, we then discuss the near- and long-term future needs of the sector in coming to a comprehensive understanding and application of systems thinking to progress the ultimate aim of universal access to safely managed, accessible and abundant water, sanitation and hygiene services.
Creating a well-integrated, resilient, and highly transparent supply chain is central to effective and safe patient care. But managing healthcare supply chains is complex; common challenges include the underuse, overuse, and misuse of health resources. This Element introduces the key principles and definitions of healthcare supply chains. Practical insights into the design and operation of healthcare supply chains are provided. Core characteristics of effective supply chain management such as performance management, systems thinking, and supply chain integration are examined along with the application of specific supply chain design and improvement approaches. Finally, the Element proposes areas that require further development both in research and practice. This title is also available as open access on Cambridge Core.
Negative human–wildlife interactions are a growing problem, particularly for people living near protected areas and wildlife refuges. In Kenya, African savannah elephants Loxodonta africana threaten food security for subsistence farmers by crop foraging, which can jeopardize conservation efforts if farmers retaliate against elephants. To inform conservation and management, this study had three objectives: (1) to evaluate stakeholder participatory models of human–elephant conflict; (2) to note any novel or underrepresented variables in the models; and (3) to determine if there were indicators for assessing the success of mitigation programmes using a biocultural approach. We conducted participatory modelling sessions in six villages in rural Kenya using fuzzy cognitive mapping (n = 206 participants). Farmers created group visual models with variables related to conflict with elephants. A total of 14 variables were common across all six villages, with the two highest centrality scores (a measure of importance to overall dynamics) associated with income and feelings of security. Most variables fell into two categories: environmental interactions, and policy and management. Multiple variables such as road infrastructure (drivers) and soil compaction (consequences) were identified as aspects of conflicts that are under-reported or absent in scientific literature, as well as potential socio-cultural indicators. The participatory method used is a tool for gaining more refined insights into interactions with elephants, with implications for other complex conservation issues or wildlife interactions. A more holistic view of the impacts of human–elephant interactions as demonstrated here can lead to sustainable, co-developed programmes that benefit both farmer livelihoods and elephant conservation.
Early phases of the design process require designers to select into view elements of the problem that they deem important. This exploration process is commonly referred to as problem framing and is essential to solution generation. There have recently been calls in the literature for more precise representations of framing activity and how individual designers come to negotiate shared frames in team settings. This paper presents a novel research approach to understand design framing activity using a system thinking lens. Systems thinking is the way that we understand a system’s components and the interrelations to create interventions, which can be used to move the system outcomes in a more favorable direction. The proposed approach is based on the observation that systems as mental representations of the problem bear some similarity to frames as collections of concepts implicit in the designer’s cognition. Systems mapping – a common visualization tool used to facilitate systems thinking – could then be used to model external representations of framing, made explicit through speech, and sketches. We thus adapt systems mapping to develop a coding scheme to analyze verbal protocols of design activity to retrospectively represent framing activity. The coding scheme is applied on two distinct datasets. The resulting system maps are analyzed to highlight team problem frames, individual contributions, and how the framing activity evolves over time. This approach is well suited to visualize the framing activity that occurs in open-ended problem contexts, where designers are more focused on problem finding and analysis rather than concept generation and detailed design. Several future research avenues for which this approach could be used or extended, including using new computational methods, are presented.
Capacity development is crucial for enduring conservation success. Recent scholarship has called for a systems perspective based on input from local stakeholders to better understand and develop conservation capacity. However, few studies have adopted such an approach to explore interactions among capacities or how capacity development needs and priorities evolve. We address this gap through a case study from Bhutan, centred on perceptions from 52 local conservation practitioners, planners, funders and community members. We use mixed methods to identify which capacities have been important for conservation success, which capacities are needed for future success, which capacities are foundational and how capacities interact. We find that capacity needs have shifted from individual-level knowledge and skills to community- and societal-level capacities in response to changing political and economic dynamics. Participants identified political support and leadership, reliable and sufficient funding, strengthening the research base, and increasing community awareness and engagement as critical future needs. Investing in these capacities holds the promise of further augmenting capacity development, thus increasing the value of limited resources. Our results demonstrate that capacity development should be viewed as a dynamic process and supported by strategic investment even in countries with track records of conservation success.
Efforts to promote creativity often centre on encouraging people to engage in 'design thinking', 'systems thinking' and 'entrepreneurial thinking'. These different approaches are most often defined, taught and applied in mutual isolation, which has obscured what distinguishes them from each other, what they have in common and how they might be combined. These three approaches are also most often described in isolation from the approaches that characterize other disciplines, all of which are relevant to how problems are identified, framed and solved. These other approaches include 'computational thinking', 'engineering thinking', 'scientific thinking', 'evolutionary thinking', 'mathematical thinking', 'statistical thinking', 'geographical thinking', 'historical thinking', 'anthropological thinking' and many more. Examining these approaches as a set allows each of them to be better understood, and also reveals the connections and contrasts between them. Such comparisons provide the foundation for a more coordinated project to represent how different disciplinary approaches contribute to creative work.
Law Schools are now required to provide education to law students on bias, cross-cultural competency, and racism under ABA Standard 303(c). Law clinics, with their social justice orientation, have long taught about structural causes of bias and oppression and ways to intervene at system levels to prevent problems. Medical legal partnership (MLP) clinics have done so by employing concepts from social work and health science programs on structural competency. This article examines MLP and related curriculum to meet the ABA mandate.
In recent decades, the proliferation of single-use plastic products has significantly contributed to a surge in plastic pollution on a global scale. Researchers have extensively investigated the impacts of plastic pollution across various regions, yet a comprehensive holistic and location-based understanding of these impacts in the West African context is lacking. This study addresses this gap through a systemic assessment of the impacts of plastic pollution, in West Africa, particularly Ghana. Employing a qualitative system dynamics causal modelling approach, this study establishes linkages between pollution effects at the macro level, constructing a hierarchical outline of both high- and low-level impacts. The significance of this research lies in the application of pertinent systems thinking techniques to comprehend the broader impacts of plastic pollution. The outcomes of this study will inform the development of effective policies aimed at preventing or mitigating plastic pollution in Ghana, and potentially the wider West African context.
The evolving needs of customers and stakeholders necessitate the collaboration of diverse system elements within a cyber-physical, socio-technical network. Socio-technical systems are characterized by numerous complex interdependencies as well as by endogenous and exogenous influences. A key issue that developers must address is the mitigation of data and information uncertainties. The authors introduce an approach that operationalizes Design Thinking as a supporting sufficient condition within the context of designing system models in the realm of Model-Based Systems Engineering.
Designers’ roles are at a turning point of transforming design from an expert-driven design process within an assumed social and economic order to design practices that advocate design-led societal transition toward more sustainable futures. Design education should be adapted accordingly. Introducing the transition design concept into established design education promotes the sustainable society transition by involving more systems thinking from designers in various sectors. This study reports on a pilot practice and reflection on introducing the transition design concept to design students.
This study delves into Industry 5.0's Human Centric Manufacturing and Systems (HCM and HCS), emphasizing worker welfare and sustainability. Industry 5.0 advocates a human-centric approach, built upon three foundational pillars safety, inclusivity, and empowerment. The paper highlights the successful integration of Design and Systems Thinking in HCM and proposes a workshop at MADE COMPETENCE CENTRE proving the effectiveness in raising awareness and promoting Human-Centric principles throughout the system life cycle and in achieving Human-Centric Systems (HCS).
Multiple industries have hailed lightweighting promise to reduce the mass of their product at equivalent or improved performance. Lightweighting as a strategy encompasses lightweight end-product desired attributes and through-life processing decisions. Assessment of lightweighting gathers information for decision-making towards the optimization of these strategies. An exploratory study, using systems thinking is conducted, to identify requirements of lightweighting and its assessment in terms of holistically defining its impact on the sustainability of its background system, the Earth.
The question of how science can become a lever in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals permeates most recent sustainability research. Wide-ranging literature calling for a transformative approach has emerged in recent years. This ‘transformative turn’ is fueled by publications from fields such as sustainability science, social-ecological research, conservation science, sustainability transitions, or sustainability governance studies. However, there is a lack of a shared understanding specifically of what is meant for research to be transformative in this developing discourse around doing science differently to tackle sustainability problems. We aim to advance transformative research for sustainability. We define transformative research and outline six of its characteristics: (1) interventional nature and a theory of change focus; (2) collaborative modes of knowledge production, experimentation and learning; (3) systems thinking literacy and contextualization; (4) reflexivity, normative and inner dimensions; (5) local agency, decolonization, and reshaping power; (6) new quality criteria and rethinking impact. We highlight three tensions between transformative research and traditional paradigms of academic research: (1) process- and output-orientation; (2) accountability toward society and toward science; (3) methodologies rooted in scientific traditions and post-normal methodologies. We conclude with future directions on how academia could reconcile these tensions to support and promote transformative research.
Non-technical summary
Dominant ways of doing research are not enough to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The typical response of science to dealing with the current local and global sustainability crises is to produce and accumulate more knowledge. Transformative research seeks to couple knowledge production with co-creating change. This paper defines the transformative way of doing research to pro-actively support society's fight against pressing societal and environmental problems. We present six characteristics of transformative research. We reflect on the challenges related to implementing these characteristics in scientific practice and on how academia can play its part.
Social media summary
Sustainability transformation needs to be reflected in science, but what makes sustainability research transformative?