We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of empirical processes truncated outside an interval about the (1 – s(n)/n)-quantile where s(n) → ∞ and s(n)/n → 0 as the sample size n tends to ∞. It is shown that extreme value (Poisson) processes and, alternatively, the homogeneous Poisson process may serve as approximations if certain von Mises conditions hold.

We show that using the FIFO service discipline at single server stations with ILR (increasing likelihood ratio) service time distributions in networks of monotone queues results in stochastically earlier departures throughout the network. The converse is true at stations with DLR (decreasing likelihood ratio) service time distributions. We use these results to establish the validity of the following comparisons:

(i) The throughput of a closed network of FIFO single-server queues will be larger (smaller) when the service times are ILR (DLR) rather than exponential with the same means.

(ii) The total stationary number of customers in an open network of FIFO single-server queues with Poisson external arrivals will be stochastically smaller (larger) when the service times are ILR (DLR) rather than exponential with the same means.

We also give a surprising counterexample to show that although FIFO stochastically maximizes the number of departures by any time t from an isolated single-server queue with IHR (increasing hazard rate, which is weaker than ILR) service times, this is no longer true for networks of more than one queue. Thus the ILR assumption cannot be relaxed to IHR.

Finally, we consider multiclass networks of exponential single-server queues, where the class of a customer at a particular station determines its service rate at that station, and show that serving the customer with the highest service rate (which is SEPT — shortest expected processing time first) results in stochastically earlier departures throughout the network, among all preemptive work-conserving policies. We also show that a cµ rule stochastically maximizes the number of non-defective service completions by any time t when there are random, agreeable, yields.

We derive an asymptotic relation for the expected value of the stopping time , where Sk is a random walk with negative drift.

The paper gives a spectral representation for a class of random fields which are bounded in mean square almost surely. A characterisation of the corresponding spectral measure in the representation is obtained based on Beurling's duality theory and generalised Fourier transforms. A representation for the covariance function of asymptotically stationary random fields is also derived.

The Hammersley–Clifford theorem gives the form that the joint probability density (or mass) function of a Markov random field must take. Its exponent must be a sum of functions of variables, where each function in the summand involves only those variables whose sites form a clique. From a statistical modeling point of view, it is important to establish the converse result, namely, to give the conditional probability specifications that yield a Markov random field. Besag (1974) addressed this question by developing a one-parameter exponential family of conditional probability models. In this article, we develop new models for Markov random fields by establishing sufficient conditions for the conditional probability specifications to yield a Markov random field.

This paper considers the undershoot of a general continuous-time risk process with dependent increments under a certain initial level. The increments are given by the locations and amounts of claims which are described by a stationary marked point process. Under a certain balance condition, it is shown that the distribution of the undershoot depends only on the mark distribution and on the intensity of the underlying point process, but not on the form of its distribution. In this way an insensitivity property is extended which has been proved in Björk and Grandell [3] for the ruin probability, i.e. for the probability that after a finite time interval the initial level will be crossed from above.

Let ψ be a functional of the sample path of a stochastic system driven by a Poisson process with rate λ . It is shown in a very general setting that the expectation of ψ,E λ [ψ], is an analytic function of λ under certain moment conditions. Instead of following the straightforward approach of proving that derivatives of arbitrary order exist and that the Taylor series converges to the correct value, a novel approach consisting in a change of measure argument in conjunction with absolute monotonicity is used. Functionals of non-homogeneous Poisson processes and Wiener processes are also considered and applications to light traffic derivatives are briefly discussed.

The dependence of coincidence of the global, local and pairwise Markov properties on the underlying undirected graph is examined. The pairs of these properties are found to be equivalent for graphs with some small excluded subgraphs. Probabilistic representations of the corresponding conditional independence structures are discussed.

The use of taboo probabilities in Markov chains simplifies the task of calculating the queue-length distribution from data recording customer departure times and service commencement times such as might be available from automatic bank-teller machine transaction records or the output of telecommunication network nodes. For the case of Poisson arrivals, this permits the construction of a new simple exact O(n 3) algorithm for busy periods with n customers and an O(n 2 log n) algorithm which is empirically verified to be within any prespecified accuracy of the exact algorithm. The algorithm is extended to the case of Erlang-k interarrival times, and can also cope with finite buffers and the real-time estimates problem when the arrival rate is known.

We show that the stationary version of the queueing relation H = λG is equivalent to the basic Palm transformation for stationary marked point processes.

We study two FIFO single-server queueing models in which both the arrival and service processes are modulated by the amount of work in the system. In the first model, the nth customer's service time, Sn , depends upon their delay, Dn , in a general Markovian way and the arrival process is a non-stationary Poisson process (NSPP) modulated by work, that is, with an intensity that is a general deterministic function g of work in system V(t). Some examples are provided. In our second model, the arrivals once again form a work-modulated NSPP, but, each customer brings a job consisting of an amount of work to be processed that is i.i.d. and the service rate is a general deterministic function r of work. This model can be viewed as a storage (dam) model (Brockwell et al. (1982)), but, unlike previous related literature, (where the input is assumed work-independent and stationary), we allow a work-modulated NSPP. Our approach involves an elementary use of Foster's criterion (via Tweedie (1976)) and in addition to obtaining new results, we obtain new and simplified proofs of stability for some known models. Using further criteria of Tweedie, we establish sufficient conditions for the steady-state distribution of customer delay and sojourn time to have finite moments.

Let Y 0, Y 1, Y 2, ··· be an i.i.d. sequence of random variables with absolutely continuous distribution function F, and let {N(t), t ≧ 0} be a Poisson process with rate λ (t) and mean Λ(t), independent of the Yj 's. We associate Y 0 with the point t = 0, and Yj with the jth point of N(·), j ≧ 1. The first Yj (j ≧ 1) to exceed all previous ones is the first record value, and the time of its occurrence is the first record time; subsequent record values and times are defined analogously. For general Λ, we give the joint distribution of the values and times of the first n records to occur after a fixed time T, 0 ≦ T < ∞. Assuming that F satisfies Von Mises regularity conditions, and that λ (t)/Λ (t) → c ∈ (0, ∞) as t → ∞, we find the limiting joint p.d.f. of the values and times of the first n records after T, as T → ∞. In the course of this we correct a result of Gaver and Jacobs (1978). We also consider limiting marginal and conditional distributions. In addition, we extend a known result for the limit as the number of recordsK → ∞, and we compare the results for the limit as T → ∞ with those for the limit as K → ∞.

A method of obtaining the distribution of the volume of the typical cell of a Delaunay tessellation generated by a Poisson process in is developed and used to derive the density when d = 1, 2, 3.

The problem treated is that of controlling a process with values in [0, a]. The non-anticipative controls (µ(t), σ(t)) are selected from a set C(x) whenever X(t–) = x and the non-decreasing process A(t) is chosen by the controller subject to the condition where y is a constant representing the initial amount of fuel. The object is to maximize the probability that X(t) reaches a. The optimal process is determined when the function has a unique minimum on [0, a] and satisfies certain regularity conditions. The optimal process is a combination of ‘timid play' in which fuel is used gradually in the form of local time at 0, and ‘bold play' in which all the fuel is used at once.

The existence of a class of multitype measure branching processes is deduced from a single-type model introduced by Li [8], which extends the work of Gorostiza and Lopez-Mimbela [5] and shows that the study of a multitype process can sometimes be reduced to that of a single-type one.

Assume that we want to estimate – σ, the abscissa of convergence of the Laplace transform. We show that no non-parametric estimator of σ can converge at a faster rate than (log n)–1, where n is the sample size. An optimal convergence rate is achieved by an estimator of the form where xn = O(log n) and is the mean of the sample values overshooting xn. Under further parametric restrictions this (log n)–1 phenomenon is also illustrated by a weak convergence result.

Shanthikumar and Sumita (1986) proved that the stationary system queue length distribution just after a departure instant is geometric for GI/GI/1 with LCFS-P/H service discipline and with a constant acceptance probability of an arriving customer, where P denotes preemptive and H is a restarting policy which may depend on the history of preemption. They also got interesting relationships among characteristics. We generalize those results for G/G/1 with an arbitrary restarting LCFS-P and with an arbitrary acceptance policy. Several corollaries are obtained. Fakinos' (1987) and Yamazaki's (1990) expressions for the system queue length distribution are extended. For a Poisson arrival case, we extend the well-known insensitivity for LCFS-P/resume, and discuss the stationary distribution for LCFS-P/repeat.

Two recent papers by Petruccelli and Woolford (1984) and Chan et al. (1985) showed that the key element governing ergodicity of a threshold AR(1) model is the joint behavior of the two linear AR(1) pieces falling in the two boundary threshold regimes. They used essentially the necessary and sufficient conditions for ergodicity of a general Markov chain of Tweedie (1974), (1975) in a rather clever manner. However, it is difficult to extend the results to the more general threshold ARMA models. Besides, irreducibility is also required to apply Tweedie's results. In this paper, instead of pursuing the ideas in Tweedie's results, we shall develop a criterion similar in spirit to the technique used by Beneš (1967) in the context of continuous-time Markov chains. Consequently, we derive a necessary and sufficient condition for existence of a strictly stationary solution of a general non-linear ARMA model to be introduced in Section 2 of this paper. This condition is then applied to the threshold ARMA(1, q) model to yield a sufficient condition for strict stationarity which is identical to the condition given by Petruccelli and Woolford (1984) for the threshold AR(1). Hence, the conjecture that the moving average component does not affect stationarity is partially verified. Furthermore, under an additional irreducibility assumption, ergodicity of a non-linear ARMA model is established. The paper then concludes with a necessary condition for stationarity of the threshold ARMA(1, q) model.

For linear-cost-adjusted and geometric-discounted infinite sequences of i.i.d. random variables, point process convergence results are proved as the cost or discounting effect diminishes. These process convergence results are combined with continuous-mapping principles to obtain results on joint convergence of suprema and threshold-stopped random variables, and last-exit times and locations. Applications are made to several classical optimal stopping problems in these settings.

Limit Statements obtainable by the key renewal theorem are of the form EXt = v(t) + o(1), as t →∞. We show how to delineate the limit function v for processes X associated with crudely regenerative phenomena. Included are refinements of classical limit theorems for Markov and regenerative processes, limits of sums of stationary random variables, and limits for integrals and derivatives of EXt.