Consider a continuous-time renewal risk model with a constant force of interest. We assume that claim sizes and interarrival times correspondingly form a sequence of independent and identically distributed random pairs and that each pair obeys a dependence structure described via the conditional tail probability of a claim size given the interarrival time before the claim. We focus on determining the impact of this dependence structure on the asymptotic tail probability of discounted aggregate claims. Assuming that the claim size distribution is subexponential, we derive an exact locally uniform asymptotic formula, which quantitatively captures the impact of the dependence structure. When the claim size distribution is extended regularly varying tailed, we show that this asymptotic formula is globally uniform.

The tail dependence of multivariate distributions is frequently studied via the tool of copulas. In this paper we develop a general method, which is based on multivariate regular variation, to evaluate the tail dependence of heavy-tailed scale mixtures of multivariate distributions, whose copulas are not explicitly accessible. Tractable formulae for tail dependence parameters are derived, and a sufficient condition under which the parameters are monotone with respect to the heavy tail index is obtained. The multivariate elliptical distributions are discussed to illustrate the results.

We study sample covariance matrices of the form W = (1 / n)C C T, where C is a k x n matrix with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) mean 0 entries. This is a generalization of the so-called Wishart matrices, where the entries of C are i.i.d. standard normal random variables. Such matrices arise in statistics as sample covariance matrices, and the high-dimensional case, when k is large, arises in the analysis of DNA experiments. We investigate the large deviation properties of the largest and smallest eigenvalues of W when either k is fixed and n → ∞ or k n → ∞ with k n = o(n / log log n), in the case where the squares of the i.i.d. entries have finite exponential moments. Previous results, proving almost sure limits of the eigenvalues, require only finite fourth moments. Our most explicit results for large k are for the case where the entries of C are ∓ 1 with equal probability. We relate the large deviation rate functions of the smallest and largest eigenvalues to the rate functions for i.i.d. standard normal entries of C . This case is of particular interest since it is related to the problem of decoding of a signal in a code-division multiple-access (CDMA) system arising in mobile communication systems. In this example, k is the number of users in the system and n is the length of the coding sequence of each of the users. Each user transmits at the same time and uses the same frequency; the codes are used to distinguish the signals of the separate users. The results imply large deviation bounds for the probability of a bit error due to the interference of the various users.

A systematic study of random Laguerre tessellations, weighted generalisations of the well-known Voronoi tessellations, is presented. We prove that every normal tessellation with convex cells in dimension three and higher is a Laguerre tessellation. Tessellations generated by stationary marked Poisson processes are then studied in detail. For these tessellations, we obtain integral formulae for geometric characteristics and densities of the typical k-faces. We present a formula for the linear contact distribution function and prove various limit results for convergence of Laguerre to Poisson-Voronoi tessellations. The obtained integral formulae are subsequently evaluated numerically for the planar case, demonstrating their applicability for practical purposes.

In this paper we study the asymptotic tail probabilities of sums of subexponential, nonnegative random variables, which are dependent according to certain general structures with tail independence. The results show that the subexponentiality of the summands eliminates the impact of the dependence on the tail behavior of the sums.

We present a minimum counterexample to the conjecture that a negatively associated random variable has an ultra-log-concave rank sequence. The rank sequence does not in fact even need to be unimodal.

The notion of conditional comonotonicity was first used implicitly by Kaas, Dhaene, and Goovaerts (2000) and was formally introduced by Jouini and Napp (2004) as a generalization of the classical concept of comonotonicity. The objective of the present paper is to further investigate this relatively new concept. The main result is that a random vector is comonotonic conditional to a certain σ-field if and only if it is almost surely comonotonic locally on each atom of the conditioning σ-field. We also provide a new proof of a distributional representation and an almost sure representation of a conditionally comonotonic random vector.

Dependence structures for bivariate extremal events are analyzed using particular types of copula. Weak convergence results for copulas along the lines of the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem provide limiting dependence structures for bivariate tail events. A characterization of these limiting copulas is also provided by means of invariance properties. The results obtained are applied to the credit risk area, where, for intensity-based default models, stress scenario dependence structures for widely traded products such as credit default swap baskets or first-to-default contract types are proposed.

In 1977 D. G. Kendall considered diffusions of shape induced by independent Brownian motions in Euclidean space. In this paper, we consider a different class of diffusions of shape, induced by the projections of a randomly rotating, labelled ensemble. In particular, we study diffusions of shapes induced by projections of planar triangular configurations of labelled points onto a fixed straight line. That is, we consider the process in Σ1 3 (the shape space of triads in ℝ) that results from extracting the ‘shape information’ from the projection of a given labelled planar triangle as this evolves under the action of Brownian motion in SO(2). We term the thus-defined diffusions Radon diffusions and derive explicit stochastic differential equations and stationary distributions. The latter belong to the family of angular central Gaussian distributions. In addition, we discuss how these Radon diffusions and their limiting distributions are related to the shape of the initial triangle, and explore whether the relationship is bijective. The triangular case is then used as a basis for the study of processes in Σ1 k arising from projections of an arbitrary number, k, of labelled points on the plane. Finally, we discuss the problem of Radon diffusions in the general shape space Σn k .

Classical principal component analysis on manifolds, for example on Kendall's shape spaces, is carried out in the tangent space of a Euclidean mean equipped with a Euclidean metric. We propose a method of principal component analysis for Riemannian manifolds based on geodesics of the intrinsic metric, and provide a numerical implementation in the case of spheres. This method allows us, for example, to compare principal component geodesics of different data samples. In order to determine principal component geodesics, we show that in general, owing to curvature, the principal component geodesics do not pass through the intrinsic mean. As a consequence, means other than the intrinsic mean are considered, allowing for several choices of definition of geodesic variance. In conclusion we apply our method to the space of planar triangular shapes and compare our findings with those of standard Euclidean principal component analysis.

Define the non-overlapping return time of a block of a random process to be the number of blocks that pass by before the block in question reappears. We prove a central limit theorem based on these return times. This result has applications to entropy estimation, and to the problem of determining if digits have come from an independent, equidistributed sequence. In the case of an equidistributed sequence, we use an argument based on negative association to prove convergence under conditions weaker than those required in the general case.

Random vectors in the positive orthant whose distributions possess hidden regular variation are a subclass of those whose distributions are multivariate regularly varying with asymptotic independence. The concept is an elaboration of the coefficient of tail dependence of Ledford and Tawn. We show that the rank transform that brings unequal marginals to the standard case also preserves the hidden regular variation. We discuss applications of the results to two examples, one involving flood risk and the other Internet data.

The convex hull of n independent random points in ℝd , chosen according to the normal distribution, is called a Gaussian polytope. Estimates for the variance of the number of i-faces and for the variance of the ith intrinsic volume of a Gaussian polytope in ℝd , d∈ℕ, are established by means of the Efron-Stein jackknife inequality and a new formula of Blaschke-Petkantschin type. These estimates imply laws of large numbers for the number of i-faces and for the ith intrinsic volume of a Gaussian polytope as n→∞.

In the characterization of multivariate extremal indices of multivariate stationary processes, multivariate maxima of moving maxima processes, or M4 processes for short, have been introduced by Smith and Weissman. Central to the introduction of M4 processes is that the extreme observations of multivariate stationary processes may be characterized in terms of a limiting max-stable process under quite general conditions, and that a max-stable process can be arbitrarily closely approximated by an M4 process. In this paper, we derive some additional basic probabilistic properties for a finite class of M4 processes, each of which contains finite-range clustered moving patterns, called signature patterns, when extreme events occur. We use these properties to construct statistical estimation schemes for model parameters.

The zonoid of a d-dimensional random vector is used as a tool for measuring linear dependence among its components. A preorder of linear dependence is defined through inclusion of the zonoids. The zonoid of a random vector does not characterize its distribution, but it does characterize the size-biased distribution of its compositional variables. This fact will allow a characterization of our linear dependence order in terms of a linear-convex order for the size-biased compositional variables. In dimension 2 the linear dependence preorder will be shown to be weaker than the concordance order. Some examples related to the Marshall-Olkin distribution and to a copula model will be presented, and a class of measures of linear dependence will be proposed.

This paper introduces a new graph constructed from a point process. The idea is to connect a point with its nearest neighbour, then to the second nearest and continue this process until the point belongs to the interior of the convex hull of these nearest neighbours. The number of such neighbours is called the degree of a point. We derive the distribution of the degree of the typical point in a Poisson process, prove a central limit theorem for the sum of degrees, and propose an edge-corrected estimator of the distribution of the degree that is unbiased for a stationary Poisson process. Simulation studies show that this degree is a useful concept that allows the separation of clustering and repulsive behaviour of point processes.

In this paper, we clarify dependence properties of elliptical distributions by deriving general but explicit formulae for the coefficients of upper and lower tail dependence and spectral measures with respect to different norms. We show that an elliptically distributed random vector is regularly varying if and only if the bivariate marginal distributions have tail dependence. Furthermore, the tail dependence coefficients are fully determined by the tail index of the random vector (or equivalently of its components) and the linear correlation coefficient. Whereas Kendall's tau is invariant in the class of elliptical distributions with continuous marginals and a fixed dispersion matrix, we show that this is not true for Spearman's rho. We also show that sums of elliptically distributed random vectors with the same dispersion matrix (up to a positive constant factor) remain elliptical if they are dependent only through their radial parts.

This paper proposes matrix variate generalization of Kummer-Beta family of distributions which has been studied recently by Ng and Kotz. This distribution is an extension of Beta distribution. Its characteristic function has been derived and it is shown that the distribution is orthogonally invariant. Some results on distribution of random quadratic forms have also been derived.

The usual direct method of simulation for cluster processes requires the generation of the parent point process over a region larger than the actual observation window, since we have to allow for all possible parents giving rise to observed daughter points, and some of these parents may fall outwith the observation window. When there is no a priori bound on the distance between parent and child then we have to take care to control approximations arising from edge effects. In this paper, we present a simulation method which requires simulation only of those parent points actually giving rise to observed daughter points, thus avoiding edge effect approximation. The idea is to replace the cluster distribution by one which is conditioned to plant at least one daughter point in the observation window, and to modify the parent process to have an inhomogeneous intensity exactly balancing the effect of the conditioning. We furthermore show how the method extends to cases involving infinitely many potential parents, for example gamma-Poisson processes and shot-noise G-Cox processes, allowing us to avoid approximation due to truncation of the parent process.

The set covariance of a dead leaves model, constructed from hard spheres of constant diameter, is calculated analytically. The calculation is based on the covariance of a single sphere and on the pair correlation function of the centres of the spheres. There exist applications in the field of random sequential adsorption and in the interpretation of small-angle scattering experiments.