Yield decline has been the hallmark of Ethiopian sugarcane plantations. However, the extent and causes of the decline have not yet been empirically studied, making it difficult to manage the problem. This study aimed at analyzing the long-term yield data (1954–2022) with respect to variety and soil type. Thus, 8,923 records of yield data were summarized and sorted into decades, varieties, and soil types and then analyzed by applying Mann-Kendall and Tukey’s tests. The fields were classified and mapped using ArcGIS 10.3. The results revealed that 69% of the plantation fields were classified as “yield declining,” and the overall rate of decline has been 8.4 quintals ha−1 year−1 (R2 = 0.76). The rate of decline was higher for older than newer varieties and for vertisols than cambiols. Therefore, the older varieties should be micropropagated or replaced with improved ones, and the vertisols should be amended through practices such as green manuring, improved fallows, etc.

We describe an outbreak of echovirus 18 infection involving 10 patients in our neonatal intensive care unit (an attack rate of 33%). The mean age at the onset of illness was 26.8 days. Eighty percent were preterm infants. All were discharged home without sequelae. There were no differences in gestation age, birth weight, delivery mode, use of antibiotics, and parenteral nutrition between the enterovirus (EV) group and non-EV group, but the rate of breastfeeding was significantly higher in the EV group. Separation care and reinforcement of hand-washing seemed to be effective in preventing further spread of the virus. Visiting policy, hygiene practice, and handling of expressed breastmilk should be reinforced.

Infectious intestinal disease (IID) studies conducted at different levels of the surveillance pyramid have found heterogeneity in the association of socioeconomic deprivation with illness. The aim of this study was to analyse the association between socioeconomic deprivation and incidence of IID by certain gastrointestinal pathogens reported to UKHSA. Data were extracted from 2015 to 2018 for Salmonella, Campylobacter, Shigella, Giardia species, and norovirus. Rates were calculated per 100,000 person-years by the index of multiple deprivation quintile, and an ecological analysis was conducted using univariant and multvariable regression models for each pathogen. Incidence of Campylobacter, and Giardia species decreased with increasing deprivation. Conversely, the incidence of norovirus, non-typhoidal Salmonella, Salmonella typhi/paratyphi, Shigella species increased with increasing deprivation. Multivariable analysis results showed that higher deprivation was significantly associated with higher odds of higher number of cases for Shigella flexneri, norovirus and S. typhi/paratyphi. Infections most associated with deprivation were those transmitted by person-to-person spread, and least associated were those transmitted by zoonotic contamination of the environment. Person-to-person transmission can be contained by implementing policies targeting over-crowding and poor hygiene. This approach is likely to be the most effective solution for the reduction of IID.

Tang et al. (2022) propose a new class of models for stochastic mortality modelling using Hermite splines. There are four useful features of this class that are worth emphasising. First, for single-sex datasets, this new class of projection models can be fitted as a generalised linear model. Second, these models can automatically extrapolate mortality rates to ages above the maximum age of the data set. Third, simpler sub-variants of the models exist for forecasting when one of the variables lacks a clear drift. Finally, a minor reparameterisation increases the quality of long-range forecasts of period mortality.

We study the problem of finding the root vertex in large growing networks. We prove that it is possible to construct confidence sets of size independent of the number of vertices in the network that contain the root vertex with high probability in various models of random networks. The models include uniform random recursive dags and uniform Cooper-Frieze random graphs.

To harness the promises of digital transformation, different players take different paths. Departing from corporate-driven (e.g., the United States) and state-led (e.g., China) approaches, in various documents, the European Union states its goal to establish a citizen-centric data ecosystem. However, it remains contentious the extent to which the envisioned digital single market can enable the creation of public value and empower citizens. As an alternative, in this article, we argue in favor of a fair data ecosystem, defined as an approach capable of representing and keep in balance the data interests of all actors, while maintain a collective outlook. We build such ecosystem around data commons—as a third path to market and state approaches to the managing of resources—coupled with open data (OD) frameworks and spatial data infrastructures (SDIs). Indeed, based on literature, we claim that these three regimes complement each other, with OD and SDIs supplying infrastructures and institutionalization to data commons’ limited replicability and scalability. This creates the preconditions for designing the main roles, rules, and mechanisms of a data republic, as a possible enactment of a fair data ecosystem. While outlining here its main traits, the testing of the data republic model is open for further research.

Recently, the relevation transformation has received further attention from researchers, and some interesting results have been developed. It is well known that the active redundancy at component level results in a more reliable coherent system than that at system level. However, the lack of study of this problem with relevation redundancy prevents us from fully understanding such a generalization of the active redundancy. In this note we deal with relevation redundancy to coherent systems of homogeneous components. Typically, for a series system of independent components, we have proved that the lifetime of a system with relevation redundancy at component level is larger than that with relevation redundancy at system level in the sense of the usual stochastic order and the likelihood ratio order, respectively. For a coherent system with dependent components, we have developed a sufficient condition in terms of the domination function to the usual stochastic order between the system lifetime with redundancy at component level and that at system level.

Consider a financial market with nonnegative semimartingales which does not need to have a numéraire. We are interested in the absence of arbitrage in the sense that no self-financing portfolio gives rise to arbitrage opportunities, where we are allowed to add a savings account to the market. We will prove that in this sense the market is free of arbitrage if and only if there exists an equivalent local martingale deflator which is a multiplicative special semimartingale. In this case, the additional savings account relates to the finite-variation part of the multiplicative decomposition of the deflator.

This note corrects an error in the formula to obtain the Whittle index using the Sherman–Morrison formula in Akbarzadeh and Mahajan (2022). Also, some other minor typos are highlighted.

In the UK, the incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasing in paediatric populations. Environmental factors including acute gastroenteritis episodes (AGE) may impact IBD development. Infant rotavirus vaccination has been shown to significantly reduce AGE. This study aims to explore the association between vaccination with live oral rotavirus vaccines and IBD development. A population-based cohort study was used, analysing primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum. Participants included children born in the UK from 2010 to 2015, followed from a minimum of 6 months old to a maximum of 7 years old. The primary outcome was IBD, and the primary exposure was rotavirus vaccination. Cox regression analysis with random intercepts for general practices was undertaken, with adjustment for potential confounding factors. In a cohort of 907,477 children, IBD was recorded for 96 participants with an incidence rate of 2.1 per 100,000 person-years at risk. The univariable analysis hazard ratio (HR) for rotavirus vaccination was 1.45 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93–2.28). Adjustment in the multivariable model attenuated the HR to 1.19 (95% CI 0.53–2.69). This study shows no statistically significant association between rotavirus vaccination and development of IBD. However, it provides further evidence for the safety of live rotavirus vaccination.

We find sufficient conditions on explosion/non-explosion for continuous-state branching processes with competition in a Lévy random environment. In particular, we identify the necessary and sufficient conditions on explosion/non-explosion when the competition function is a power function and the Lévy measure of the associated branching mechanism is stable.

Genomic epidemiology is routinely used worldwide to interrogate infectious disease dynamics. Multiple computational tools exist that reconstruct transmission networks by coupling genomic data with epidemiological models. Resulting inferences can improve our understanding of pathogen transmission dynamics, and yet the performance of these tools has not been evaluated for tuberculosis (TB), a disease process with complex epidemiology including variable latency and within-host heterogeneity. Here, we performed a systematic comparison of six publicly available transmission reconstruction models, evaluating their accuracy when predicting transmission events in simulated and real-world Mycobacterium tuberculosis outbreaks. We observed variability in the number of transmission links that were predicted with high probability (P ≥ 0.5) and low accuracy of these predictions against known transmission in simulated outbreaks. We also found a low proportion of epidemiologically supported case–contact pairs were identified in our real-world TB clusters. The specificity of all models was high, and a relatively high proportion of the total transmission events predicted by some models were true links, notably with TransPhylo, Outbreaker2, and Phybreak. Our findings may inform the choice of tools in TB transmission analyses and underscore the need for caution when interpreting transmission networks produced using probabilistic approaches.

Evolutionary studies on Dengue virus (DENV) in endemic regions are necessary since naturally occurring mutations may lead to genotypic variations or shifts in serotypes, which may lead to future outbreaks. Our study comprehends the evolutionary dynamics of DENV, using phylogenetic, molecular clock, skyline plots, network, selection pressure, and entropy analyses based on partial CprM gene sequences. We have collected 250 samples, 161 in 2017 and 89 in 2018. Details for the 2017 samples were published in our previous article and that of 2018 are presented in this study. Further evolutionary analysis was carried out using 800 sequences, which incorporate the study and global sequences from GenBank: DENV-1 (n = 240), DENV-3 (n = 374), and DENV-4 (n = 186), identified during 1944–2020, 1956–2020, and 1956–2021, respectively. Genotypes V, III, and I were identified as the predominant genotypes of the DENV-1, DENV-3, and DENV-4 serotypes, respectively. The rate of nucleotide substitution was found highest in DENV-3 (7.90 × 10−4 s/s/y), followed by DENV-4 (6.23 × 10−4 s/s/y) and DENV-1 (5.99 × 10−4 s/s/y). The Bayesian skyline plots of the Indian strains revealed dissimilar patterns amongst the population size of the three serotypes. Network analyses showed the presence of different clusters within the prevalent genotypes. The data presented in this study will assist in supplementing the measures for vaccine development against DENV.

Data sharing is a requisite for developing data-driven innovation and collaboration at the local scale. This paper aims to identify key lessons and recommendations for building trustworthy data governance at the local scale, including the public and private sectors. Our research is based on the experience gained in Rennes Metropole since 2010 and focuses on two thematic use cases: culture and energy. For each one, we analyzed how the power relations between actors and the local public authority shape the modalities of data sharing and exploitation. The paper will elaborate on challenges and opportunities at the local level, in perspective with the national and European frameworks.

We show that for a fixed $q$, the number of $q$-ary $t$-error correcting codes of length $n$ is at most $2^{(1 + o(1)) H_q(n,t)}$ for all $t \leq (1 - q^{-1})n - 2\sqrt{n \log n}$, where $H_q(n, t) = q^n/ V_q(n,t)$ is the Hamming bound and $V_q(n,t)$ is the cardinality of the radius $t$ Hamming ball. This proves a conjecture of Balogh, Treglown, and Wagner, who showed the result for $t = o(n^{1/3} (\log n)^{-2/3})$.

Without protective immunity, recurrent sexually transmitted infections (STI) could occur. In this study, we retrospectively collected STI diagnosis records from public STI clinics attended by an average of 6,000 male patients annually in Hong Kong in 2009–2019. We estimated the prevalence of three bacterial STI (syphilis, chlamydia and gonorrhoea) coinfection from 2009 to 2019, and examined the factors associated with coinfection in 2014/15 and repeat infection in 2009–2019. We observed an increasing coinfection prevalence in male attendees with bacterial STI over the years, which reached the highest level of 15% in 2019. Among 3,698 male patients in 2014–2015, chlamydia/gonorrhoea coinfection was the commonest among all coinfections (77%). Factors such as young age (29 or below), HIV-positive status, and a history of concurrent genital warts/herpes were positively associated with coinfection in 2014/15 in multivariable logistic regression. Of all male patients with STI coinfection in 2014/15, those of age 30–49 and who self-reported as men who have sex with men (MSM) were more likely to have been repeatedly infected in 2009–2019. The results support the implementation of regular multi-STI testing as an STI control strategy for selected communities like MSM and people living with HIV.

Candidemia is a life-threatening infectious disease that has varying incidences. Previous studies revealed the differences in clinical characteristics and outcomes between non-hospital-onset (NHO) and hospital-onset (HO) candidemia. This 4-year retrospective research included adult patients with candidemia in a tertiary medical centre in Taiwan, and cases were categorised as NHO and HO candidemia. Survival analysis and risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality were performed using the Kaplan–Meier method and multivariate Cox proportional-hazards models. The analysis included 339 patients, and the overall incidence was 1.50 per 1,000 admission person-year. Of the cases, 82 (24.18%) were NHO candidemia, and 57.52% (195/339) of patients were diagnosed with at least one malignancy. C. albicans was the most commonly isolated species, accounting for 52.21%. Patients with NHO candidemia had a higher proportion of C. glabrata but a lower ratio of C. tropicalis in comparison to the HO group. The all-cause in-hospital mortality rate was 55.75%. Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards models showed that NHO candidemia was a better outcome predictor (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.44). The administration of antifungal therapy within 2 days was a protective factor. In conclusion, NHO candidemia showed distinct microbiological characteristics and a better outcome than HO candidemia.

We extend a recent argument of Kahn, Narayanan and Park ((2021) Proceedings of the AMS 149 3201–3208) about the threshold for the appearance of the square of a Hamilton cycle to other spanning structures. In particular, for any spanning graph, we give a sufficient condition under which we may determine its threshold. As an application, we find the threshold for a set of cyclically ordered copies of $C_4$ that span the entire vertex set, so that any two consecutive copies overlap in exactly one edge and all overlapping edges are disjoint. This answers a question of Frieze. We also determine the threshold for edge-overlapping spanning $K_r$-cycles.