Forests of urban/suburban areas are being increasingly restored, but before/after-control/impact studies addressing effects on biodiversity in peri-urban forest restorations are virtually lacking. Using a before/after-control/impact (BACI) design, we explored the effects on birds (commonly used as indicators for restoration impacts) of small-scale restoration interventions in 2019 targeting residual forests north of Milan, in the largest Italian conurbation, with trees and shrub planting around existing patches or in formerly cultivated areas. Birds were surveyed in 2018, 2019, and 2021, at 20 intervention and 20 control sites. We evaluated the short-term effects of restoration by analysing changes in avian communities (i.e. richness, richness and abundance of forest specialists, single species’ abundance), considering the effect of year and intervention (i.e. before/during/after intervention). Species richness of breeding birds was largely unaffected by on-going interventions, while it was positively related to concluded restoration. The abundance of five individual species varied according to restoration: on-going interventions had positive effects on two species, Common Blackbird Turdus merula and Hooded Crow Corvus corone cornix, and negative effects on Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica, while concluded restoration positively affected two species, Common Blackbird Turdus merula again, and the forest specialist Marsh Tit Poecile palustris. Even small-scale interventions in peri-urban areas may provide tangible benefits to breeding birds in the short term: peri-urban forest restoration could contribute to biodiversity conservation.

Yield curve extrapolation to unobservable tenors is a key technique for the market-consistent valuation of actuarial liabilities required by Solvency II and forthcoming similar regulations. Since the regulatory method, the Smith–Wilson method, is inconsistent with observable yield curve dynamics, parsimonious parametric models, the Nelson–Siegel model and its extensions, are often used for yield curve extrapolation in risk management. However, it is difficult for the parsimonious parametric models to extrapolate yield curves without excessive volatility because of their limited ability to represent observed yield curves with a limited number of parameters. To extend the representational capabilities, we propose a novel yield curve extrapolation method using machine learning. Using the long short-term memory architecture, we achieve purely data-driven yield curve extrapolation with better generalization performance, stability, and consistency with observed yield curve dynamics than the previous parsimonious parametric models on US and Japanese yield curve data. In addition, our method has model interpretability using the backpropagation algorithm. The findings of this study prove that neural networks, which have recently received considerable attention in mortality forecasting, are useful for yield curve extrapolation, where they have not been used before.

The soft nitinol KONAR-MF™ ventricular septal defect (VSD) Multifunctional Occluder (MFO) device is increasingly used for transcatheter perimembranous ventricular septal defect closure. We report for the first time a case of delayed complete atrioventricular block with pacemaker implantation 20 months post-procedure. Through a systematic review, the overall rate of persistent complete atrioventricular block was 0.6% with this device, but follow-up duration was limited.

This paper examines how the number of siblings that parents have affects their fertility decisions in China. The population control policies in China affected individuals unequally across birth cohorts and regions. The exogenous variation in fertility is used to identify the effect of the number of siblings on the number of children for the next generation. The results show that a couple tends to have 0.034–0.068 more children (2.3–4.6% of the average number of children) and is 2.4–6.8 percentage points more likely to violate the One-Child Policy (9.3–27.1% of the violation rate) if the husband and the wife have one more sibling each. Moreover, the effect on fertility is stronger for couples in lower-income provinces where the fertility rate is higher and in rural areas where the One-Child Policy was enforced less strictly. Finally, I show that the ideal family size of the husband and wife is an important channel through which the number of siblings affects fertility. I also find that the effect of people's number of siblings has a larger effect on their ideal number of children than on their actual number of children, suggesting that they are constrained from achieving their fertility ideals.

It is shown that every model of NF admits a permutation model containing an internal automorphism.

In the year 1900, Otani Kozui, along with three travel companions, ventured on a one-month Arctic cruise, visiting the Norwegian fjords, the North Cape, Spitsbergen (Svalbard) and Iceland. The turn of the 20th century was a formative time for early Arctic tourism, and the aura of exploration was still a part of the northern allure. While Otani and his friends were not the first Japanese to cross the Arctic Circle, they were seen among their contemporaries as holding the record for being the first Japanese to cross the 70th parallel, which became a badge of honour in the exclusive Arctic Circle Society that was established in Japan in the early 1930s. As one of Japan’s most important 20th-century explorers, Otani is well known for having collected and studied Buddhist treasures from across Central Asia and the Silk Road. This paper aims to establish the facts surrounding Otani’s Arctic cruise and the Arctic Circle Society, both of which have gone mostly unnoticed by contemporary scholars. The paper also discusses how Otani’s voyage – which contains elements of tourism, study and competition – should be perceived, both in the context of his legacy and the broader historical developments of the era.

Heat stress from high temperatures has been recognised as a threat to several bird species and one that is likely to increase in severity and frequency as a result of global environmental change. Many seabirds are particularly vulnerable as their adaptations to forage in cold water can make it hard for them to resist heat gain while on land. The African Penguin Spheniscus demersus forages in cool water (10–20°C) but breeds and moults on land where temperatures can exceed 30°C. Little is known about its thermal physiology and when heat stress will occur. Here, we provide the first account of changes in body temperature and behaviour in African Penguins in response to an experimental increase in ambient temperature from 20°C to 35°C. Surprisingly, the highest body temperature observed (39.2°C) was recorded at the start of the study. Presumably, this response in body temperature was due to the stress of transport and handling. Penguins returned to normal body temperature (37.3°C) after 3.5 hours and maintained normothermia for roughly an hour. We then observed the onset of heat storage at an ambient temperature of 29°C, whereafter body temperature increased steadily at a rate of ca.0.2°C per 1°C increase in ambient temperature. Panting commenced at an ambient temperature of 31.4°C, when body temperature was 37.8°C. In addition to panting, penguins changed their posture to facilitate heat dissipation by standing, raising their heads, and extending their flippers. Our results corroborate field observations and support the argument that African Penguins are highly vulnerable to heat stress in the near future as extreme heat events become more severe and frequent due to climate change. Our results also confirm that penguins are sensitive to handling, which elicits a hyperthermic response. Given the general sensitivity of penguins to disturbance, from a conservation perspective, we advise that cautionary measures be implemented at colonies during critical life-history stages.

This article examines the extent to which or how self-identified great powers resort to military aggression following events that challenge their sense of greatness. It problematises the prevalent notion that great powers and events exist and have effects independently of the narratives that constitute them. The article does this by engaging with Ontological Security Studies, Great Power Narcissism, and the psychology of vulnerable and grandiose narcissism, as well as by analysing Japanese identity narratives in two periods seemingly marked by equally challenging events – the Meiji era (1868–1912) and the post-war period (1950–71). It finds that Japan’s military aggression against China in 1894–5 was enabled by vulnerable narratives of shame and insult, while the decision to wage war with Russia a decade later was facilitated more by grandiose narratives. Despite Japan’s overwhelming defeat in the Second World War and the persistent desire among conservative elites for great power status and identity, however, overall post-war narratives did not feature similarly negative emotions and calls for revenge. Japanese great power aspirations were arguably curtailed in this period through intense narrative contestation, notably progressive counter-narratives featuring more self-reflective expressions of guilt and remorse, and even the self-reflexive desire for a non-great power identity.

Where do values live in thought? A straightforward answer is that we (or our brains) make decisions using explicit value representations which are our values. Recent work applying reinforcement learning to decision-making and planning suggests that, more specifically, we may represent both the instrumental expected value of actions as well as the intrinsic reward of outcomes. In this paper, I argue that identifying value with either of these representations is incomplete. For agents such as humans and other animals, there is another place where reward can be located in thought: the division of the space of possibilities or “state space.”

This article formulates an original account of the Enlightenment through an interpretation of C. L. R. James’s The Black Jacobins, a landmark work of transatlantic anti-colonial thought. It defends a dialectical account of the Enlightenment as a singular transatlantic historical process whose content and critical import changes across space and time. In The Black Jacobins, James shows the Enlightenment’s revolutionary and emancipatory political legacy by staging the dialectic of the Enlightenment in a colonial situation defined by a slave-plantation economy. James illustrates the Enlightenment’s political legacy as a “concrete universal” that has particular and singular aspects, each with its own unique contours. In doing so, the article considers other themes at the center of both historical and contemporary political theory such as how to best conceptualize colonialism; the traveling and misplacement of Enlightened ideas; and the critical importance of the dialectical legacy and critical theory in these efforts.

The autonomous navigation and obstacle avoidance capabilities of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are essential for ensuring their safe navigation and long-term, efficient operation. However, the complexity of the marine environment poses significant challenges to safe and effective obstacle avoidance. To address this issue, this study proposes an AUV obstacle avoidance control algorithm based on offline reinforcement learning. This method adopts the Conservative Q-learning (CQL) algorithm, which is based on the Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) framework. It learns from obtained historical obstacle avoidance data and ultimately achieves a favorable obstacle avoidance control strategy. In this method, PID and SAC control algorithms are utilized to generate expert obstacle avoidance data to construct a diversified offline database. Additionally, based on the line-of-sight (LOS) guidance method and artificial potential field (APF) method, information regarding the distance and orientation of targets and obstacles is incorporated into the state space, and heading and obstacle avoidance reward terms are integrated into the reward function design. The algorithm successfully guides the AUV in autonomous navigation and dynamic obstacle avoidance in three-dimensional space. Furthermore, the algorithm exhibits a certain degree of anti-interference capability against uncertain disturbances and ocean currents, enhancing the safety and robustness of the AUV system. Simulation results fully demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the intelligent obstacle avoidance method based on offline reinforcement learning. This study highlights the profound significance of offline reinforcement learning in enabling robust and reliable control systems for AUVs, paving the way for enhanced operational capabilities in challenging marine environments.

When do public policies influence citizens’ political attitudes and behavior, and among whom? We study this question using one of the largest social provision programs in the United States: the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). We exploit the staggered roll-out of state-level EITC programs to estimate the causal effect of the program on elections, voter behavior, and attitudes about the government. Contrary to predictions from the policy feedback literature, we show that the credit leads to higher vote shares and approval ratings for the implementing governor. These effects are temporally limited to the first years of the credit’s availability and dissipate over time. Taken together, our results offer new insights about the conditions under which particularistic economic policies affect political outcomes.

During our research programme about mussel spat in Amsa Bay, we found some specimens of Hesione sicula delle Chiaje, 1830 and noted as the first record for Mediterranean Moroccan coasts and for the Mediterranean coastlines of North Africa. Five specimens of this species were collected for the first time in the Amsa shellfish farm on October 30, 2021, and we provide some characteristics and illustrations for the species. This new record from the bay contributes to the Polychaeta list of North Africa and expands the geographical distribution range of species within the Mediterranean Sea.

Spain increased its minimum wage (MW) by 22% in 2019. Given the intense debate in the economic literature on the impact of MW increases on the labour market, we conduct an impact assessment of this policy. The synthetic control method will be used to replicate the Spanish labour market by means of a pool of European countries that, in the absence of other reliable measures, simulates the evolution of Spanish employment. This will allow us to identify the causal effect from the increase in the MW. After applying the technique, the increase in the MW is found to have no effect on employment. The results have been subjected to robustness tests such as leave one out or segmentation by gender or age.