Popular willingness to compromise is an important step for conflict resolution. A key argument suggests that improving expectations about the prospects of peace can increase public support for concessions. Yet a competing view, anchored in broader debates about preferences and expectations, suggests that prior ideological dispositions motivate biased future expectations rather than vice versa. This tension, however, remains understudied in violent conflicts. In this study, we leverage rich survey data from Israel to disentangle the causal relationship between expectations and preferences for compromise in a long-standing conflict. Using two decades of aggregate monthly series and two exogenous shocks to peace expectations, we find that changes in prospective expectations do predict subsequent shifts in support for compromise. We find no contrary evidence for a null, opposite, or heterogeneous relationship. The findings contribute to ongoing debates about the interrelations between expectations and preferences and provide insights into their implications for conflict resolution.

We compare different forms of communication in the context of cheap talk sender-receiver games. While previous experiments find evidence supporting the comparative statics prediction that more preference divergence leads to less information transmission, there is also a consistent pattern of overcommunication and exaggeration, not predicted by theory, in which subjects convey more information than predicted in equilibrium. The latter of these findings may be due to the restricted nature of the message space in most experimental cheap talk games, encouraging subjects to engage in exaggeration artificially, rather than allowing it to emerge naturally. We tested this hypothesis with an incentivized lab experiment, and found evidence both phenomena persist with natural language (text-based) communication. Moreover, we probe the consequences of this expanded message space for outcomes, showing that senders benefit more than receivers, but that the most notable effect is that text messages improve efficiency.

In this paper, we present a flexible approach to estimating parametric cumulative Prospect Theory using Hierarchical Bayesian methods. Bayesian methods allow us to include prior knowledge in estimation and heterogeneity in individual responses. The model employs a generalised parametric specification of the value function allowing each individual to be risk-seeking in low-stakes mixed prospects. In addition, it includes parameters accounting for varying levels of model noise across domains (gain, loss, and mixed) and several aspects of lottery design that can influence respondent behaviour. Our results indicate that enhancing value function flexibility leads to improved model performance. Our analysis reveals that choices within the gain domain tend to be more predictable. This implies that respondents find tasks in the gain domain cognitively less challenging in comparison to making choices within the loss and mixed domains.

The famous Catholic pilgrimage site at Lourdes, France, until fairly recently displayed hundreds of discarded crutches as testament to miraculous cures. It has, though, never displayed a wooden leg. Hence the Wooden Leg Problem (WLP) for believers in miracles: if God can cure paralysis, why does He seem never to have given an amputee back their lost limb? The WLP is a severe challenge for believers in miracles and must be confronted head-on. Yet there does not appear to be any systematic analysis of the problem, at least as formulated here, in the literature on miracles or philosophy of religion generally. I discuss ten possible solutions to the WLP on behalf of the believer in miracles. Although some are stronger than others, all but the final one seem too weak to solve the problem. It is the final one – the ‘how do you know?’ solution – that I endorse and examine in some depth. This solution, I argue, shows that the WLP does not move the epistemological dial when it comes to belief or disbelief in miracles.

Targeted policy and governance instruments are essential for developing a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) sector aligned with climate change mitigation scenarios. As a result, a large share of the scientific literature on CDR concentrates on these aspects. However, current CDR deployment and development are mainly driven by private organisations. While their role in CDR governance is generally acknowledged, important context regarding their perspectives, motivations and decision-making processes is lacking. This study addresses this gap by conducting seventy-nine interviews with senior representatives from organisations engaged in the early CDR market, including technology suppliers, credit purchasers, and financiers. We explore their views on key components of fair and equitable CDR systems. Our analysis reveals varying priorities across interviewed actors, including strong regulatory frameworks, market transparency, accountability, funding mechanisms and (climate) justice, emphasising historical responsibility, revenue distribution and community engagement. Additionally, we identify conflicting perspectives on the involvement of oil and gas sectors and the balance between rapid scale-up and thorough, inclusive processes. This research offers critical insights into the role of private organisations in shaping the governance of the emerging CDR sector, highlighting the complex interplay of market dynamics and ethical considerations.

We report a lab experiment to study subjects’ preferences over their ordinal rank in an earnings distribution. Following an assignment of unequal earnings, subjects can select a monetary transfer from exactly one individual to another, not including themselves. This can potentially change their own position in the distribution, as well as influence overall inequality. The experiment varies whether the initial earnings assignment is random or is affected by preliminary competition. It also varies the reference group from a complete to a partial network. A majority of observed transfers reduce inequality by moving earnings from those with the highest rank to the lowest rank in the distribution. Rank-improving transfers are substantially more common for preliminary competition losers than winners. Transfers to individuals outside of the reference group are not uncommon, and they usually target as the source the individuals high in the income distribution. While generally weak overall, own rank preferences appear to be more common among men than women.

Identifying actionable stewardship targets in immunocompromised patients is challenging due to limited data and high morbidity. One approach could be targeting therapy with limited evidence, like cytomegalovirus immune globulin (CMV-IGIV). We implemented a drug restriction program that increased appropriate use of CMV-IGIV, highlighting a unique stewardship opportunity in immunocompromised populations.

This editorial explores dual harm – the co-occurrence of self-harm and aggression – particularly among forensic populations. Historically approached as two separate and even opposing behaviours, emerging evidence shows that those who engage in self-harm and aggression experience greater adversity and poorer outcomes. This underscores the importance of enhancing our understanding of dual harm. We review key developments within the field, including how dual harm may be best conceptualised and managed, and identify critical gaps in the literature. In order to improve the care and outcomes of those who engage in self-harm and aggression, emphasis is placed on adopting more integrated approaches that consider the duality of these behaviours, as well as the complex needs of this high-risk group, within research and practice.

This introduction grounds the middle-income (MI) trap by looking at the empirical realities of firms, sectors, national, and subnational institutions embedded in global value chains (GVCs). While MI-trap scholarship has shed light on macro-structural constraints, it often overlooks international production structures and micro-level agency. GVC research, in turn, captures firm strategies and governance structures but tends to underplay the role of domestic institutions and political coalitions. This Special Issue brings these two traditions into dialogue in order to examine how upgrading is (partially) attained—or how it fails—in MI countries.

The articles in the Issue focus on six countries—Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Malaysia, and Mexico—to analyze how public and private actors pursue upgrading strategies under MI-trap conditions. We develop a typology of Actors’ Upgrading Strategies along two dimensions: loci of agency (state vs. firm/chain) and modes of action (transformative vs. adaptive). This yields four conceptual categories: Transformative Policy Entrepreneurs, Adaptive Policy Implementers, Transformative Firm Upgraders, and Incremental Firm Repositioners. Collectively, the contributions offer a more textured and politically attuned understanding of upgrading under the MI trap in a world of GVCs, and bring us closer to understanding what it means to be caught in—or to find pathways out of—the trap.

Delving into fraternal succession, intermarriage practices, and levirate marriages of the Northern Qi dynasty (550–577), this article demonstrates that these practices served as pillars of stability for the imperial family. In this exploration, Empress Dowager Lou 婁太后 (501–562) emerges as the central figure behind these practices, playing a pivotal role in their implementation and wielding immense power as kingmaker. Starting from before the official reign of the Northern Qi, she personally chose her husband, laid the groundwork for him to become regent of the preceding Eastern Wei (534–550) court, and controlled the succession system to seat her own sons as emperors of the Northern Qi. Drawing on her Xianbei 鮮卑 roots, Empress Dowager Lou enforced an agenda of Inner Asian practices and politics in her pursuit to consolidate the rule and identity of the Northern Qi imperial family.

Generative AI systems’ output as speech – Constitutional coverage for AI speech in the absence of a (human) speaker – Right of individuals to receive information as a perspective for framing constitutional coverage of generative AI output – Implications of constitutional coverage for content policing and content moderation by private platforms – Trends in the interpretation of existing content moderation regimes and their applicability to generative AI systems.

This paper is a single-project meta-analysis of four experiments that model charitable giving as individual contributions to a multiplicity of competing threshold public goods. We pool 17,136 observations at the individual level to summarize the project and investigate the role of learning, gender, and risk attitude, since the included studies are inconclusive in this regard. We find that equally effective coordination devices are the existence of a single contribution option that stands out on its merits, learning, and delegation as long as the intermediary is formally obliged to pass along a high enough percentage of the transferred resources. Women delegate less than men, and consequently prefer direct contributions. Risk tolerance increases overall donations but decreases individual earnings. We discuss possible implications of our findings.

The article explores the interplay between imperialism and ethnonationalism, revealing how these seemingly conflicting ideologies coalesced in Russian political thought. The period of 1989–1994 saw a struggle between civic nationalism, which sought to redefine Russia within its existing borders, and imperialist-nationalist currents that viewed Soviet disintegration as a geopolitical catastrophe. Within this ideological conflict, the “time bomb” metaphor emerged as a potent rhetorical device, encapsulating anxieties about territorial fragmentation and national decline. The study identifies Russian émigré intellectual Gleb Rahr as a key figure in introducing the metaphor, later popularized by figures such as Dmitry Rogozin and Vladimir Putin.