Two central problems in extremal combinatorics are concerned with estimating the number
$\mathrm {ex}(n,\mathcal {H})$, the size of the largest
$\mathcal {H}$-free hypergraph on n vertices, and the number
$\mathrm {forb}(n,\mathcal {H})$ of
$\mathcal {H}$-free hypergraph on n vertices. It is well known that
${\mathrm { forb}}(n,\mathcal {H})=2^{(1+o(1))\mathrm {ex}(n,\mathcal {H})}$ for k-uniform hypergraphs that are not k-partite. In a recent breakthrough, Ferber, McKinley, and Samotij proved that for many k-partite (or degenerate) hypergraphs
$\mathcal {H}$,
${\mathrm { forb}}(n, \mathcal {H}) = 2^{O(\mathrm {ex}(n, \mathcal {H}))}$. However, there are few known instances of degenerate hypergraphs
$\mathcal {H}$ for which
${\mathrm { forb}}(n,\mathcal {H})=2^{(1+o(1))\mathrm {ex}(n,\mathcal {H})}$ holds.
In this paper, we show that
${\mathrm { forb}}(n,\mathcal {H})=2^{(1+o(1))\mathrm {ex}(n,\mathcal {H})}$ holds for a wide class of degenerate hypergraphs known as
$2$-contractible hypertrees. This is the first known infinite family of degenerate hypergraphs
$\mathcal {H}$ for which
${\mathrm { forb}}(n,\mathcal {H})=2^{(1+o(1))\mathrm {ex}(n,\mathcal {H})}$ holds. As a corollary of our main results, we obtain a sharp estimate of
${\mathrm { forb}}(n,C^{(k)}_\ell )=2^{(\left \lfloor \frac {\ell -1}{2} \right \rfloor +o(1))\binom {n}{k-1}}$ for the k-uniform linear
$\ell $-cycle, for all pairs
$k\geq 5, \ell \geq 3$, thus settling a question of Balogh, Narayanan, and Skokan affirmatively for all
$k\geq 5, \ell \geq 3$. Our methods also lead to some sharp results on the related random Turán problem.
As a key ingredient of our proofs, we develop a novel supersaturation variant of the delta systems method for set systems, which may be of independent interest.