Galton-Watson forests consisting of N roots (or trees) and n nonroot vertices are studied. The limit distributions of the number of leaves in such a forest are obtained. By a leaf we mean a vertex from which there are no arcs emanating.

Moderate deviation principles are established in dimensions d ≥ 3 for super-Brownian motion with random immigration, where the immigration rate is governed by the trajectory of another super-Brownian motion. It fills in the gap between the central limit theorem and large deviation principles for this model which were obtained by Hong and Li (1999) and Hong (2001).

The spherical functions of triangle buildings can be described in terms of certain two-dimensional orthogonal polynomials on Steiner's hypocycloid which are closely related to Hall-Littlewood polynomials. They lead to a one-parameter family of two-dimensional polynimial hypergroups. In this paper we investigate isotropic random walks on the vertex sets of triangle buildings in terms of their projections to these hypergroups. We present strong laws of large numbers, a central limit theorem, and a local limit theorem; all these results are well-known for homogeneous trees. Proofs are based on moment functions on hypergroups and on explicit expansions of the hypergroup characters in terms of certain two-dimensional Tchebychev polynimials.

The goal of this paper is to investigate properties of statistical procedures based on numbers of different patterns by using generating functions for the probabilities of a prescribed number of occurrences of given patterns in a random text. The asymptotic formulae are derived for the expected value of the number of words occurring a given number of times and for the covariance matrix. The form of the optimal linear test based on these statistics is established. These problems appear in testing for the randomness of a string of binary bits, DNA sequencing, source coding, synchronization, quality control protocols, etc. Indeed, the probabilities of repeated (overlapping) patterns are important in information theory (the second-order properties of relative frequencies) and molecular biology problems (finding patterns with unexpectedly low or high frequencies).

The random variables X1, X2, …, Xn are said to be totally negatively dependent (TND) if and only if the random variables Xi and ∑j≠iXj are negatively quadrant dependent for all i. Our main result provides, for TND 0-1 indicators X1, x2, …, Xn with P[Xi = 1] = pi = 1 - P[Xi = 0], an upper bound for the total variation distance between ∑ni=1Xi and a Poisson random variable with mean λ ≥ ∑ni=1pi. An application to a generalized birthday problem is considered and, moreover, some related results concerning the existence of monotone couplings are discussed.

Let X, X1, X2, … be a sequence of i.i.d. random closed subsets of a certain locally compact, Hausdorff and separable base space E. For a fixed normalised Borel measure μ on E, we investigate the behaviour of random variables μ(E \ (X1 ∪ ∙ ∙ ∙ ∪ Xn)) for large n. The results obtained include a description of variance asymptotics, strong law of large numbers and a central limit theorem. As an example we give an application of the developed methods for asymptotic analysis of the mean width of convex hulls generated by uniform samples from a multidimensional ball. Another example deals with unions of random balls in ℝd with centres distributed according to a spherically-symmetric heavy-tailed law.

We generalize Banach's matchbox problem: demands of random size are made on one of two containers, both initially with content t, where the container is selected at random in the successive steps. Let Zt be the content of the other container at the moment when the selected container is found to be insufficient. We obtain the asymptotic distribution of Zt as t → ∞ under quite general conditions. The case of exponentially distributed demands is considered in more detail.

A large deviation expansion is used to evaluate the impact of errors in a geographical database on the computation of travel times. We work in the framework of discrete random variables and improve a theorem by Book to solve this problem. Simulations are provided to illustrate the methodology.

Simple approximation techniques are developed exploiting relationships between generalized convex orders and appropriate probability metrics. In particular, the distance between s-convex ordered random variables is investigated. Results connecting positive or negative dependence concepts and convex ordering are also presented. These results lead to approximations and bounds for the distributions of sums of positively or negatively dependent random variables. Applications and extensions of the main results pertaining to compound Poisson, normal and exponential approximation are provided as well.

Asymptotic behaviour of the distribution of the absolute maximum of a process with independent increments is studied depending on the properties of the Lévy measure of the process. Some applications to the risk process are also considered.

For a real-valued ergodic process X with strictly stationary increments satisfying some measurability and continuity assumptions it is proved that the long-run ‘average behaviour’ of all its increments over finite intervals replicates the distribution of the corresponding increments of X in a strong sense. Moreover, every Lévy process has a version that possesses this ergodic path property.

Empirical point processes of exceedances play an important role in extreme value theory, and their limiting behaviour has been extensively studied. Here, we provide explicit bounds on the accuracy of approximating an exceedance process by a compound Poisson or Poisson cluster process, in terms of a Wasserstein metric that is generally more suitable for the purpose than the total variation metric. The bounds only involve properties of the finite, empirical sequence that is under consideration, and not of any limiting process. The argument uses Bernstein blocks and Lindeberg's method of compositions.

We consider the estimation of Markov transition matrices by Bayes’ methods. We obtain large and moderate deviation principles for the sequence of Bayesian posterior distributions.

Let U1,U2,… be a sequence of i.i.d. random vectors distributed uniformly in a compact plane region A of unit area. Sufficient conditions on the geometry of A are provided under which the Euclidean diameter Dn of the first n of the points converges weakly upon suitable rescaling.

Empirical studies of data traffic in high-speed networks suggest that network traffic exhibits self-similarity and long-range dependence. Cumulative network traffic has been modeled using the so-called ON/OFF model. It was shown that cumulative network traffic can be approximated by either fractional Brownian motion or stable Lévy motion, depending on how many sources are active in the model. In this paper we consider exceedances of a high threshold by the sequence of lengths of ON-periods. If the cumulative network traffic converges to stable Lévy motion, the number of exceedances converges to a Poisson limit. The same holds in the fractional Brownian motion case, provided a very high threshold is used. Finally, we show that the number of exceedances obeys the central limit theorem.

We consider spectrally positive Lévy processes with regularly varying Lévy measure and study conditional limit theorems that describe the way that various rare events occur. Specifically, we are interested in the asymptotic behaviour of the distribution of the path of the Lévy process (appropriately scaled) up to some fixed time, conditionally on the event that the process exceeds a (large) positive value at that time. Another rare event we study is the occurrence of a large maximum value up to a fixed time, and the corresponding asymptotic behaviour of the (scaled) Lévy process path. We study these distributional limit theorems both for a centred Lévy process and for one with negative drift. In the latter case, we also look at the reflected process, which is of importance in applications. Our techniques are based on the explicit representation of the Lévy process in terms of a two-dimensional Poisson random measure and merely use the Poissonian properties and regular variation estimates. We also provide a proof for the asymptotic behaviour of the tail of the stationary distribution for the reflected process. The work is motivated by earlier results for discrete-time random walks (e.g. Durrett (1980) and Asmussen (1996)) and also by their applications in risk and queueing theory.

In first-passage percolation (FPP) models, the passage time Tℓ from the origin to the point ℓeℓ satisfies f(ℓ) := ETℓ = μℓ + o(ℓ½+ε), where μ ∊ (0,∞) denotes the time constant. Yet, for lattice FPP, it is not known rigorously that f(ℓ) is eventually monotonically increasing. Here, for the Poisson-based Euclidean FPP of Howard and Newman (Prob. Theory Relat. Fields108 (1997), 153–170), we prove an explicit formula for f′(ℓ). In all dimensions, for certain values of the model's only parameter we have f′(ℓ) ≥ C > 0 for large ℓ.

The paper studies the impact of a broadly understood trend, which includes a change point in mean and monotonic trends studied by Bhattacharya et al. (1983), on the asymptotic behaviour of a class of tests designed to detect long memory in a stationary sequence. Our results pertain to a family of tests which are similar to Lo's (1991) modified R/S test. We show that both long memory and nonstationarity (presence of trend or change points) can lead to rejection of the null hypothesis of short memory, so that further testing is needed to discriminate between long memory and some forms of nonstationarity. We provide quantitative description of trends which do or do not fool the R/S-type long memory tests. We show, in particular, that a shift in mean of a magnitude larger than N-½, where N is the sample size, affects the asymptotic size of the tests, whereas smaller shifts do not do so.

Seeds are randomly scattered in ℝd according to an m-dependent point process. Each seed has its own potential germination time. From each seed that succeeds in germinating, a spherical inhibited region grows to prohibit germination of any seed with later potential germination time. We show that under certain conditions on the distribution of the potential germination time, the number of germinated seeds in a large region has an asymptotic normal distribution.

Let n points be placed uniformly at random in a subset A of the plane. A point is said to be maximal in the configuration if no other point is larger in both coordinates. We show that, for large n and for many sets A, the number of maximal points is approximately normally distributed. The argument uses Stein's method, and is also applicable in higher dimensions.