In this paper we present simple extensions of earlier works on the optimal time to exchange one basket of log Brownian assets for another. A superset and subset of the optimal stopping region in the case where both baskets consist of multiple assets are obtained. It is also shown that a conjecture of Hu and Øksendal (1998) is false except in the trivial case where all the assets in a basket are the same processes.

In this paper we study the fighter problem with discrete ammunition. An aircraft (fighter) equipped with n anti-aircraft missiles is intercepted by enemy airplanes, the appearance of which follows a homogeneous Poisson process with known intensity. If j of the n missiles are spent at an encounter, they destroy an enemy plane with probability a(j), where a(0) = 0 and {a(j)} is a known, strictly increasing concave sequence, e.g. a(j) = 1 - q j , 0 < q < 1. If the enemy is not destroyed, the enemy shoots the fighter down with known probability 1 - u, where 0 ≤ u ≤ 1. The goal of the fighter is to shoot down as many enemy airplanes as possible during a given time period [0, T]. Let K(n, t) be the smallest optimal number of missiles to be used at a present encounter, when the fighter has flying time t remaining and n missiles remaining. Three seemingly obvious properties of K(n, t) have been conjectured: (A) the closer to the destination, the more of the n missiles one should use; (B) the more missiles one has; the more one should use; and (C) the more missiles one has, the more one should save for possible future encounters. We show that (C) holds for all 0 ≤ u ≤ 1, that (A) and (B) hold for the ‘invincible fighter’ (u = 1), and that (A) holds but (B) fails for the ‘frail fighter’ (u = 0); the latter is shown through a surprising counterexample, which is also valid for small u > 0 values.

Let (B t )0≤t≤T be either a Bernoulli random walk or a Brownian motion with drift, and let M t := max{B s: 0 ≤ s ≤ t}, 0 ≤ t ≤ T. In this paper we solve the general optimal prediction problem sup0≤τ≤T E[f(M T − B τ], where the supremum is over all stopping times τ adapted to the natural filtration of (B t ) and f is a nonincreasing convex function. The optimal stopping time τ* is shown to be of ‘bang-bang’ type: τ* ≡ 0 if the drift of the underlying process (B t ) is negative and τ* ≡ T if the drift is positive. This result generalizes recent findings of Toit and Peskir (2009) and Yam, Yung and Zhou (2009), and provides additional mathematical justification for the dictum in finance that one should sell bad stocks immediately, but keep good stocks as long as possible.

We propose a model for the presence/absence of a population in a collection of habitat patches. This model assumes that colonisation and extinction of the patches occur as distinct phases. Importantly, the local extinction probabilities are allowed to vary between patches. This permits an investigation of the effect of habitat degradation on the persistence of the population. The limiting behaviour of the model is examined as the number of habitat patches increases to ∞. This is done in the case where the number of patches and the initial number of occupied patches increase at the same rate, and for the case where the initial number of occupied patches remains fixed.

The point process of vertices of an iteration infinitely divisible or, more specifically, of an iteration stable random tessellation in the Euclidean plane is considered. We explicitly determine its covariance measure and its pair-correlation function, as well as the cross-covariance measure and the cross-correlation function of the vertex point process and the random length measure in the general nonstationary regime. We also give special formulae in the stationary and isotropic setting. Exact formulae are given for vertex count variances in compact and convex sampling windows, and asymptotic relations are derived. Our results are then compared with those for a Poisson line tessellation having the same length density parameter. Moreover, a functional central limit theorem for the joint process of suitably rescaled total edge counts and edge lengths is established with the process (ξ, tξ), t > 0, arising in the limit, where ξ is a centered Gaussian variable with explicitly known variance.

Melamed's theorem states that, for a Jackson queueing network, the equilibrium flow along a link follows a Poisson distribution if and only if no customers can travel along the link more than once. Barbour and Brown (1996) considered the Poisson approximate version of Melamed's theorem by allowing the customers a small probability p of travelling along the link more than once. In this note, we prove that the customer flow process is a Poisson cluster process and then establish a general approximate version of Melamed's theorem that accommodates all possible cases of 0 ≤ p < 1.

We study the multi-selection version of the so-called odds theorem by Bruss (2000). We observe a finite number of independent 0/1 (failure/success) random variables sequentially and want to select the last success. We derive the optimal selection rule when m (≥ 1) selection chances are given and find that the optimal rule has the form of a combination of multiple odds-sums. We provide a formula for computing the maximum probability of selecting the last success when we have m selection chances and also provide closed-form formulae for m = 2 and 3. For m = 2, we further give the bounds for the maximum probability of selecting the last success and derive its limit as the number of observations goes to ∞. An interesting implication of our result is that the limit of the maximum probability of selecting the last success for m = 2 is consistent with the corresponding limit for the classical secretary problem with two selection chances.

The aim of this paper is to analyze a class of random processes which models the motion of a particle on the real line with random velocity and subject to the action of friction. The speed randomly changes when a Poissonian event occurs. We study the characteristic and moment generating functions of the position reached by the particle at time t > 0. We are able to derive the explicit probability distributions in a few cases. The moments are also widely analyzed. For the random motions having an explicit density law, further interesting probabilistic interpretations emerge if we consider randomly varying time. Essentially, we consider two different types of random time, namely Bessel and gamma times, which contain, as particular cases, some important probability distributions (e.g. Gaussian, exponential). For the random processes built by means of these compositions, we derive the probability distributions for a fixed number of Poisson events. Some remarks on possible extensions to random motions in higher spaces are proposed. We focus our attention on the persistent planar random motion.

We consider spatial stochastic models, which can be applied to, e.g. telecommunication networks with two hierarchy levels. In particular, we consider Cox processes X L and X H concentrated on the edge set T (1) of a random tessellation T, where the points X L,n and X H,n of X L and X H can describe the locations of low-level and high-level network components, respectively, and T (1) the underlying infrastructure of the network, such as road systems, railways, etc. Furthermore, each point X L,n of X L is marked with the shortest path along the edges of T to the nearest (in the Euclidean sense) point of X H . We investigate the typical shortest path length C * of the resulting marked point process, which is an important characteristic in, e.g. performance analysis and planning of telecommunication networks. In particular, we show that the distribution of C * converges to simple parametric limit distributions if a scaling factor κ converges to 0 or ∞. This can be used to approximate the density of C * by analytical formulae for a wide range of κ.

In this paper we study the Wiener-Hopf factorization for a class of Lévy processes with double-sided jumps, characterized by the fact that the density of the Lévy measure is given by an infinite series of exponential functions with positive coefficients. We express the Wiener-Hopf factors as infinite products over roots of a certain transcendental equation, and provide a series representation for the distribution of the supremum/infimum process evaluated at an independent exponential time. We also introduce five eight-parameter families of Lévy processes, defined by the fact that the density of the Lévy measure is a (fractional) derivative of the theta function, and we show that these processes can have a wide range of behavior of small jumps. These families of processes are of particular interest for applications, since the characteristic exponent has a simple expression, which allows efficient numerical computation of the Wiener-Hopf factors and distributions of various functionals of the process.

In this paper we consider a generalized coupon collection problem in which a customer repeatedly buys a random number of distinct coupons in order to gather a large number n of available coupons. We address the following question: How many different coupons are collected after k = k n draws, as n → ∞? We identify three phases of k n : the sublinear, the linear, and the superlinear. In the growing sublinear phase we see o(n) different coupons, and, with true randomness in the number of purchases, under the appropriate centering and scaling, a Gaussian distribution is obtained across the entire phase. However, if the number of purchases is fixed, a degeneracy arises and normality holds only at the higher end of this phase. If the number of purchases have a fixed range, the small number of different coupons collected in the sublinear phase is upgraded to a number in need of centering and scaling to become normally distributed in the linear phase with a different normal distribution of the type that appears in the usual central limit theorems. The Gaussian results are obtained via martingale theory. We say a few words in passing about the high probability of collecting nearly all the coupons in the superlinear phase. It is our aim to present the results in a way that explores the critical transition at the ‘seam line’ between different Gaussian phases, and between these phases and other nonnormal phases.

This short note offers a new proof of the following fact: in a discrete-time arbitrage-free market model, a contingent claim is attainable if and only if its expected value is the same under all equivalent martingale measures. The proof is based on Rogers' (1994) proof of the Dalang-Morton-Willinger (1990) theorem.

Let n points be placed independently in d-dimensional space according to the density f(x) = A d e−λ||x||α , λ, α > 0, x ∈ ℝd , d ≥ 2. Let d n be the longest edge length of the nearest-neighbor graph on these points. We show that (λ−1 log n)1−1/α dn - b n converges weakly to the Gumbel distribution, where b n ∼ ((d − 1)/λα) log log n. We also prove the following strong law for the normalized nearest-neighbor distance d̃ n = (λ−1 log n)1−1/α dn / log log n: (d − 1)/αλ ≤ lim infn→∞ d̃ n ≤ lim supn→∞ d̃ n ≤ d/αλ almost surely. Thus, the exponential rate of decay α = 1 is critical, in the sense that, for α > 1, d n → 0, whereas, for α ≤ 1, d n → ∞ almost surely as n → ∞.

In this paper we present a method to recover a time-homogeneous piecewise constant volatility from a finite set of perpetual put option prices. The whole calculation process of the volatility is decomposed into easy computations in many fixed disjoint intervals. In each interval, the volatility is obtained by solving a system of nonlinear equations.

The Ehrenfest urn is a model for the diffusion of gases between two chambers. Classic research deals with this system as a Markovian model with a fixed number of balls, and derives the steady-state behavior as a binomial distribution (which can be approximated by a normal distribution). We study the gradual change for an urn containing n (a very large number) balls from the initial condition to the steady state. We look at the status of the urn after k n draws. We identify three phases of k n : the growing sublinear, the linear, and the superlinear. In the growing sublinear phase the amount of gas in each chamber is normally distributed, with parameters that are influenced by the initial conditions. In the linear phase a different normal distribution applies, in which the influence of the initial conditions is attenuated. The steady state is not a good approximation until a certain superlinear amount of time has elapsed. At the superlinear stage the mix is nearly perfect, with a nearly perfect symmetrical normal distribution in which the effect of the initial conditions is completely washed away. We give interpretations for how the results in different phases conjoin at the ‘seam lines’. In fact, these Gaussian phases are all manifestations of one master theorem. The results are obtained via martingale theory.

The topic of the present paper is a generalized St Petersburg game in which the distribution of the payoff X is given by P(X =sr (k-1)/α) = pq k-1,k = 1, 2,…, where p + q = 1, s = 1 / p,r = 1 / q, and 0 < α ≤ 1. For the case in which α = 1, we extend Feller's classical weak law and Martin-Löf's theorem on convergence in distribution along the 2n -subsequence. The analog for 0 < α < 1 turns out to converge in distribution to an asymmetric stable law with index α. Finally, some limit theorems for polynomial and geometric size total gains, as well as for extremes, are given.

We introduce a formal limit, which we refer to as a fluid limit, of scaled stochastic models for a cache managed with the least-recently-used algorithm when requests are issued according to general stochastic point processes. We define our fluid limit as a superposition of dependent replications of the original system with smaller item sizes when the number of replications approaches ∞. We derive the average probability that a requested item is not in a cache (average miss probability) in the fluid limit. We show that, when requests follow inhomogeneous Poisson processes, the average miss probability in the fluid limit closely approximates that in the original system. Also, we compare the asymptotic characteristics, as the cache size approaches ∞, of the average miss probability in the fluid limit to those in the original system.

In this paper we consider the problem of identifiability for the two-state Markovian arrival process (MAP2). In particular, we show that the MAP2 is not identifiable, providing the conditions under which two different sets of parameters induce identical stationary laws for the observable process.

We develop classification results for max-stable processes, based on their spectral representations. The structure of max-linear isometries and minimal spectral representations play important roles. We propose a general classification strategy for measurable max-stable processes based on the notion of co-spectral functions. In particular, we discuss the spectrally continuous-discrete, the conservative-dissipative, and the positive-null decompositions. For stationary max-stable processes, the latter two decompositions arise from connections to nonsingular flows and are closely related to the classification of stationary sum-stable processes. The interplay between the introduced decompositions of max-stable processes is further explored. As an example, the Brown-Resnick stationary processes, driven by fractional Brownian motions, are shown to be dissipative.

Suppose that I 1, I 2,… is a sequence of independent Bernoulli random variables with E(I n ) = λ/(λ + n − 1), n = 1, 2,…. If λ is a positive integer k, {I n }n≥1 can be interpreted as a k-record process of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables with a common continuous distribution. When I n−1 I n = 1, we say that a consecutive k-record occurs at time n. It is known that the total number of consecutive k-records is Poisson distributed with mean k. In fact, for general is Poisson distributed with mean λ. In this paper, we want to find an optimal stopping time τλ which maximizes the probability of stopping at the last n such that I n−1 I n = 1. We prove that τλ is of threshold type, i.e. there exists a t λ ∈ ℕ such that τλ = min{n | n ≥ t λ, I n−1 I n = 1}. We show that t λ is increasing in λ and derive an explicit expression for t λ. We also compute the maximum probability Q λ of stopping at the last consecutive record and study the asymptotic behavior of Q λ as λ → ∞.