We study exponential families within the class of counting processes and show that a mixed Poisson process belongs to an exponential family if and only if it is either a Poisson process or has a gamma structure distribution. This property can be expressed via exponential martingales.

Random fields on , with long-range weak dependence for each coordinate individually, usually present clustering of high values. For each one of the eight directions in , we formulate restriction conditions on local occurrence of two or more crossings of high levels. These smooth oscillation conditions enable computation of the extremal index as a clustering measure from the limiting mean number of crossings. In fact, only four directions must be inspected since for opposite directions we find the same local path crossing behaviour and the same limiting mean number of crossings. The general theory is illustrated with several 1-dependent nonstationary random fields.

We provide bounds for perpetual American option prices in a jump diffusion model in terms of American option prices in the standard Black–Scholes model. We also investigate the dependence of the bounds on different parameters of the model.

We give three applications of the Pecherskii-Rogozin-Spitzer identity for Lévy processes. First, we find the joint distribution of the supremum and the epoch at which it is ‘attained’ if a Lévy process has phase-type upward jumps. We also find the characteristics of the ladder process. Second, we establish general properties of perturbed risk models, and obtain explicit fluctuation identities in the case that the Lévy process is spectrally positive. Third, we study the tail asymptotics for the supremum of a Lévy process under different assumptions on the tail of the Lévy measure.

In this paper we discuss the complementary theorem applied to the typical n-tuple of a Poisson point process. The theorem was first presented by Miles in 1970 and discussed by Santaló in 1976 and, within a Palm measure framework, by Møller and Zuyev in 1996. The theorems put forward by these authors are not correct for all the examples that they present, suggesting that further consideration of their work is needed if one wishes to bring all those examples within the ambit of the complementary theorem. We give alternative analyses of the errant examples and, with a modification of the technicalities in the work of the above authors, move toward a more comprehensive complementary theorem. Some open issues still remain.

In this paper, we adapt the very effective Berry-Esseen theorems of Chen and Shao (2004), which apply to sums of locally dependent random variables, for use with randomly indexed sums. Our particular interest is in random variables resulting from integrating a random field with respect to a point process. We illustrate the use of our theorems in three examples: in a rather general model of the insurance collective; in problems in geometrical probability involving stabilizing functionals; and in counting the maximal points in a two-dimensional region.

In this paper we present a general framework for the modelling of the process of corrective and condition-based preventive maintenance actions for complex repairable systems. A new class of models is proposed, the generalized virtual age models. On the one hand, these models generalize Kijima's virtual age models to the case where both preventive and corrective maintenances are present. On the other hand, they generalize the usual competing risks models to imperfect maintenance actions which do not renew the system. A generalized virtual age model is defined by both a sequence of effective ages which characterizes the effects of both types of maintenance according to a classical virtual age model, and a usual competing risks model which characterizes the dependency between the two types of maintenance. Several particular cases of the general model are derived.

A stationary partition based on a stationary point process N in ℝd is an ℝd -valued random field π={π(x): x∈ℝd } such that both π(y)∈N for each y∈ℝd and the random partition {{y∈ℝd : π(y)=x}: x∈N} is stationary jointly with N. Stationary partitions may be considered as general versions of the stationary random tessellations studied in stochastic geometry. As in the special case of the Voronoi tessellation, a stationary partition can be used to relate the underlying stationary probability measure to the associated Palm probability measure of N. In doing so, we will develop some basic theory for stationary partitions and extend properties of stationary tessellations to our more general case. One basic idea is that the stationary measure is (up to a shift) a weighted version of the Palm measure, where the weight is the volume of the typical cell. We will make systematic use of a known modified probability measure. Finally, we use our approach to extend some recent results on the shift coupling of the stationary distribution and the Palm distribution.

Let F be a probability distribution with support on the nonnegative integers. We describe two algorithms for generating a stationary random graph, with vertex set ℤ, in which the degrees of the vertices are independent, identically distributed random variables with distribution F. Focus is on an algorithm generating a graph in which, initially, a random number of ‘stubs’ with distribution F is attached to each vertex. Each stub is then randomly assigned a direction (left or right) and the edge configuration obtained by pairing stubs pointing to each other, first exhausting all possible connections between nearest neighbors, then linking second-nearest neighbors, and so on. Under the assumption that F has finite mean, it is shown that this algorithm leads to a well-defined configuration, but that the expected length of the shortest edge attached to a given vertex is infinite. It is also shown that any stationary algorithm for pairing stubs with random, independent directions causes the total length of the edges attached to a given vertex to have infinite mean. Connections to the problem of constructing finitary isomorphisms between Bernoulli shifts are discussed.

We discuss the limit behavior of the partial sums process of stationary solutions to the (autoregressive) AR(1) equation X t = a t X t−1 + εt with random (renewal-reward) coefficient, a t , taking independent, identically distributed values A j ∈ [0,1] on consecutive intervals of a stationary renewal process with heavy-tailed interrenewal distribution, and independent, identically distributed innovations, εt , belonging to the domain of attraction of an α-stable law (0 < α ≤ 2, α ≠ 1). Under suitable conditions on the tail parameter of the interrenewal distribution and the singularity parameter of the distribution of A j near the unit root a = 1, we show that the partial sums process of X t converges to a λ-stable Lévy process with index λ < α. The paper extends the result of Leipus and Surgailis (2003) from the case of finite-variance X t to that of infinite-variance X t .

Consider a sequence {X k , k ≥ 1} of random variables on (−∞, ∞). Results on the asymptotic tail probabilities of the quantities , and S (n) = max0 ≤ k ≤ n S k , with X 0 = 0 and n ≥ 1, are well known in the case where the random variables are independent with a heavy-tailed (subexponential) distribution. In this paper we investigate the validity of these results under more general assumptions. We consider extensions under the assumptions of having long-tailed distributions (the class L) and having the class D ∩ L, where D is the class of distribution functions with dominatedly varying tails. Some results are also given in the case where X k , k ≥ 1, are not necessarily identically distributed and/or independent.

Fractional Laplace motion is obtained by subordinating fractional Brownian motion to a gamma process. Used recently to model hydraulic conductivity fields in geophysics, it might also prove useful in modeling financial time series. Its one-dimensional distributions are scale mixtures of normal laws, where the stochastic variance has the generalized gamma distribution. These one-dimensional distributions are more peaked at the mode than is a Gaussian distribution, and their tails are heavier. In this paper we derive the basic properties of the process, including a new property called stochastic self-similarity. We also study the corresponding fractional Laplace noise, which may exhibit long-range dependence. Finally, we discuss practical methods for simulation.

We consider the stability of the longest-queue-first scheduling policy (LQF), a natural and low-complexity scheduling policy, for a generalized switch model. Unlike that of common scheduling policies, the stability of LQF depends on the variance of the arrival processes in addition to their average intensities. We identify new sufficient conditions for LQF to be throughput optimal for independent, identically distributed arrival processes. Deterministic fluid analogs, proved to be powerful in the analysis of stability in queueing networks, do not adequately characterize the stability of LQF. We combine properties of diffusion-scaled sample path functionals and local fluid limits into a sharper characterization of stability.

Gaussian wave models have been successfully used since the early 1950s to describe the development of random sea waves, particularly as input to dynamic simulation of the safety of ships and offshore structures. A drawback of the Gaussian model is that it produces stochastically symmetric waves, which is an unrealistic feature and can lead to unconservative safety estimates. The Gaussian model describes the height of the sea surface at each point as a function of time and space. The Lagrange wave model describes the horizontal and vertical movements of individual water particles as functions of time and original location. This model is physically based, and a stochastic version has recently been advocated as a realistic model for asymmetric water waves. Since the stochastic Lagrange model treats both the vertical and the horizontal movements as Gaussian processes, it can be analysed using methods from the Gaussian theory. In this paper we present an analysis of the stochastic properties of the first-order stochastic Lagrange waves model, both as functions of time and as functions of space. A Slepian model for the description of the random shape of individual waves is also presented and analysed.

In this paper we study players' long-run behaviors in evolutionary coordination games with imperfect monitoring. In each time period, signals corresponding to players' underlying actions, instead of the actions themselves, are observed. A boundedly rational quasi-Bayesian learning process is proposed to extract information from the realized signals. We find that players' long-run behaviors depend not only on the correlations between actions and signals, but on the initial probabilities of risk-dominant and non-risk-dominant equilibria being chosen. The conditions under which risk-dominant equilibrium, non-risk-dominant equilibrium, and the coexistence of both equilibria emerges in the long run are shown. In some situations, the number of limiting distributions grows unboundedly as the population size grows to infinity.

In this paper, we analyze a queueing system characterized by a space-time arrival process of customers served by a countable set of servers. Customers arrive at points in space and the server stations have space-dependent processing rates. The workload is seen as a Radon measure and the server stations can adapt their power allocation to the current workload. We derive the stability region of the queueing system in the usual stationary ergodic framework. The analysis of this stability region gives some counter-intuitive results. Some specific subclasses of policy are also studied. Wireless communications networks is a natural field of application for the model.

A continuous-time model with stationary increments for asset price {P t } is an extension of the symmetric subordinator model of Heyde (1999), and allows for skewness of returns. In the setting of independent variance-gamma-distributed returns the model resembles closely that of Madan, Carr, and Chang (1998). A simple choice of parameters renders {e−rt P t } a familiar martingale. We then specify the activity time process, {T t }, for which {T t − t} is asymptotically self-similar and {τt }, with τt = T t − T t−1, is gamma distributed. This results in a skew variance-gamma distribution for each log price increment (return) X t and a model for {X t } which incorporates long-range dependence in squared returns. Our approach mirrors that for the (symmetric) Student process model of Heyde and Leonenko (2005), to which the present work is intended as a complement and a sequel. One intention is to compare, partly on the basis of fitting to data, versions of the general model wherein the returns have either (symmetric) t-distributions or variance-gamma distributions.

In this paper, we extend the integer-valued model class to give a nonnegative integer-valued bilinear process, denoted by INBL(p,q,m,n), similar to the real-valued bilinear model. We demonstrate the existence of this strictly stationary process and give an existence condition for it. The estimation problem is discussed in the context of a particular simple case. The method of moments is applied and the asymptotic joint distribution of the estimators is given: it turns out to be a normal distribution. We present numerical examples and applications of the model to real time series data on meningitis and Escherichia coli infections.

We consider a buying-selling problem when two stops of a sequence of independent random variables are required. An optimal stopping rule and the value of a game are obtained.

We study identities for the distribution of the number of edges at time t back (i.e. measured backwards) in a coalescent tree whose subtrees have no mutations. This distribution is important in the infinitely-many-alleles model of mutation, where every mutation is unique. The model includes, as a special case, the number of edges in a coalescent tree at time t back when mutation is ignored. The identities take the form of expected values of functions of Z t =eiX t , where X t is distributed as standard Brownian motion. Associated identities are also found for the distributions of the time to the most recent common ancestor, the time until loss of ancestral lines by coalescence or mutation, and the age of a mutation. Hypergeometric functions play an important role in the identities. The identities are of mathematical interest, as well as potentially being formulae to use for numerical integration or simulation to compute distributions that are usually expressed as alternating-sign series expansions, which are difficult to compute.