Let (X n ) be a sequence of independent, identically distributed random variables, with common distribution function F, possibly discontinuous. We use martingale arguments to connect the number of upper records from (X n ) with sums of minima of related random variables. From this relationship we derive a general strong law for the number of records for a wide class of distributions F, including geometric and Poisson.

Siegmund and Worsley (1995) considered the problem of testing for signals with unknown location and scale in a Gaussian random field defined on ℝN . The test statistic was the maximum of a Gaussian random field in an N+1 dimensional ‘scale space’, N dimensions for location and 1 dimension for the scale of a smoothing filter. Scale space is identical to a continuous wavelet transform with a kernel smoother as the wavelet, though the emphasis here is on signal detection rather than image compression or enhancement. Two methods were used to derive an approximate null distribution for N=2 and N=3: one based on the method of volumes of tubes, the other based on the expected Euler characteristic of the excursion set. The purpose of this paper is two-fold: to show how the latter method can be extended to higher dimensions, and to apply this more general result to χ2 fields. The result of Siegmund and Worsley (1995) then follows as a special case. In this paper the results are applied to the problem of searching for activation in brain images obtained by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI).

In this paper we study the asymptotic relationship between the loss ratio in a finite buffer system and the overflow probability (the tail of the queue length distribution) in the corresponding infinite buffer system. We model the system by a fluid queue which consists of a server with constant rate c and a fluid input. We provide asymptotic upper and lower bounds on the difference between log P{Q > x} and logP L (x) under different conditions. The conditions for the upper bound are simple and are satisfied by a very large class of input processes. The conditions on the lower bound are more complex but we show that various classes of processes such as Markov modulated and ARMA type Gaussian input processes satisfy them.

We consider a parametrization of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) family of term structure of interest rate models that allows a finite-dimensional Markovian representation of the stochastic dynamics. This parametrization results from letting the volatility function depend on time to maturity and on two factors: the instantaneous spot rate and one fixed-maturity forward rate. Our main purpose is an estimation methodology for which we have to model the observations under the historical probability measure. This leads us to consider as an additional third factor the market price of interest rate risk, that connects the historical and the HJM martingale measures. Assuming that the information comes from noisy observations of the fixed-maturity forward rate, the purpose is to estimate recursively, on the basis of this information, the three Markovian factors as well as the parameters in the model, in particular those in the volatility function. This leads to a nonlinear filtering problem, for the solution of which we describe an approximation methodology, based on time discretization and quantization. We prove the convergence of the approximate filters for each of the observed trajectories.

Consider a Navier-Stokes incompressible turbulent fluid in R 2. Let x(t) denote the position coordinate of a moving vortex with initial circulation Γ0 > 0 in the fluid, subject to a force F. Define x(t) as a stochastic process with continuous sample paths described by a stochastic differential equation. Assuming a suitable notion of weak rotationality, it is shown that the stochastic equation is equivalent to a linear partial differential equation for the complex function ψ, i∂ψ/∂t = [-Γ0Δ + F] ψ, where |ψ|2 = ρ(x,t), ρ being the probability density function of finding the vortex centre in position x at time t.

In this paper, the instantaneous availability of a system maintained under periodic inspection is investigated using random walk models. Two cases are considered. In the first model, the system is repaired or modified and it is assumed to be as good as new upon periodic inspection and maintenance. In the second model, the system is not modified after the inspection if the system is still working, and the condition of the system is assumed to be the same as that before the inspection. For both models the failures only can be found through the inspection. Perfect repair or replacement of a failed system is assumed to be carried out, but the time it takes can be constant or of a random length. The relationship between this problem and the random walk model in a two-dimensional plane is described. Several new results are also shown.

Seeds are randomly scattered in ℝd according to an m-dependent point process. Each seed has its own potential germination time. From each seed that succeeds in germinating, a spherical inhibited region grows to prohibit germination of any seed with later potential germination time. We show that under certain conditions on the distribution of the potential germination time, the number of germinated seeds in a large region has an asymptotic normal distribution.

Let n points be placed uniformly at random in a subset A of the plane. A point is said to be maximal in the configuration if no other point is larger in both coordinates. We show that, for large n and for many sets A, the number of maximal points is approximately normally distributed. The argument uses Stein's method, and is also applicable in higher dimensions.

In this paper, a single channel FIFO fluid queue with an infinite buffer space and a long-range dependent input is studied. The input traffic is modeled by an average input rate plus a standard fractional Brownian motion as the fluctuation. Lower and upper bounds are derived for the tail distribution of the transient queue length at time T, which result in a logarithmic characterization of the asymptotic behavior of the tail distribution. Furthermore, the exact asymptotic is also obtained. It is observed that the transient queue length under fractional Brownian input does not suffer from the heavy-tail property as does the steady-state queue length. The results are used to compute the equivalent bandwidth requirement for ATM broadband connections with fractional Brownian traffic feed and finite connection holding time.

Let X t be an n-dimensional diffusion process and S(t) be a set-valued function. Suppose X t is invisible when it is hidden by S(t), but we can see the process exactly otherwise. In this paper, we derive the optimal estimator E[f(X 1) | X s 1 X s∉S(s), 0 ≤ s ≤ 1] for a bounded Borel function f. We illustrate some computations for Gauss-Markov processes.

This article deals with the distribution of the view of a random environment as seen by an observer whose location at each moment is determined by the environment. The main application is in statistical fluid mechanics, where the environment consists of a random velocity field and the observer is a particle moving in the velocity field, possibly subject to molecular diffusion. Several results on such Lagrangian observations of the environment have appeared in the literature, beginning with the 1957 dissertation of J. L. Lumley. This article unites these results into a simple unified framework and rounds out the theory with new results in several directions. When the environment is homogeneous, the problem can be re-cast in terms of certain random mappings on the physical space that are based on the random location of the observer. If these mappings preserve the invariant measure on the physical space, then the view from the random location has the same distribution as the view from the origin. If these mappings satisfy the flow property and the environment is stationary, then the succession of Lagrangian observations over time forms a strictly stationary process. In particular, for motion in a homogeneous, stationary, and nondivergent velocity field, the Lagrangian velocity (the velocity of the particle) is strictly stationary, which was first observed by Lumley. In the compressible case, the distribution of a Lagrangian observation has a density with respect to the distribution of the view from the origin, and in some cases convergence in distribution of the Lagrangian observations as time tends to infinity can be shown.

We define the extension of the so-called ‘martingales in the branching random walk’ in R or C to some Banach algebras B of infinite dimension and give conditions for their convergence, almost surely and in the L p norm. This abstract approach gives conditions for the simultaneous convergence of uncountable families of such martingales constructed simultaneously in C, the idea being to consider such a family as a function-valued martingale in a Banach algebra of functions. The approach is an alternative to those of Biggins (1989), (1992) and Barral (2000), and it applies to a class of families to which the previous approach did not. We also give a result on the continuity of these multiplicative processes. Our results extend to a varying environment version of the usual construction: instead of attaching i.i.d. copies of a given random vector to the nodes of the tree ∪n≥0 N + n , the distribution of the vector depends on the node in the multiplicative cascade. In this context, when B=R and in the nonnegative case, we generalize the measure on the boundary of the tree usually related to the construction; then we evaluate the dimension of this nonstatistically self-similar measure. In the self-similar case, our convergence results make it possible to simultaneously define uncountable families of such measures, and then to estimate their dimension simultaneously.

An urn contains m minus balls and p plus balls, and we draw balls from this urn one at a time randomly without replacement until we wish to stop. Let P n and M n denote the respective numbers of plus balls and minus balls drawn by time n and define Z 0 = 0, Z n = P n - M n , 1 ≤ n ≤ m + p. The main problem of this paper is to stop with maximum probability on the maximum of the trajectory formed by . This problem is closely related to the celebrated ballot problem, so that we obtain some identities concerning the ballot problem and then derive the optimal stopping rule explicitly. Some related modifications are also studied.

We give a general construction of sequential games among multiple players, as well as a construction of the composition of sequential games. We obtain new properties of the optimal class of win-by-k games, including closure under composition and independence between the winner of the game and the number of points played. We obtain new results on the asymptotic efficiency of the n-point, win-by-k games.

We study a simple first-order nonnegative bilinear time-series model and give conditions under which the model is stationary. The probability density function of the stationary distribution (when it exists) is found. We also discuss the tail behaviour of the stationary distribution and calculate the probability density function by a numerical method. Simulation is used to check the calculation.

For a compound Poisson dam with exponential jumps and linear release rate (shot-noise process), we compute the Laplace-Stieltjes transform (LST) and the mean of the hitting time of some positive level given that the process starts from some given positive level. The solution for the LST is in terms of confluent hypergeometric functions of the first and second kinds (Kummer functions).

The paper describes a new numerical method for the calculation of noncrossing probabilities for arbitrary boundaries by a Poisson process. We find the method to be simple in implementation, quick and efficient - it works reliably for Poisson processes of very high intensity n, up to several thousand. Hence, it can be used to detect unusual features in the finite-sample behaviour of empirical process and trace it down to very high sample sizes. It also can be used as a good approximation for noncrossing probabilities for Brownian motion and Brownian bridge, in particular when the boundaries are not regular. As a numerical example we demonstrate the divergence of normalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics from their prescribed limiting distributions (Eicker (1979), Jaeshke (1979)) for quite large n in contrast to very regular behaviour of statistics of Mason (1983). For the Brownian motion case we considered square-root, Daniels' (1969) and Grooneboom's (1989) boundaries.

We consider the sum S d of record values in a sequence of independentrandom variables that are uniformly distributed on 1,…,d. This sum can be interpreted as the total amount of time spent in record lifetimes in the standard renewal theoretic setup. We investigate the distributional limit of S d and some related quantities as d→∞. Some explicit values are given for d=6, a case that can be interpreted as a simple game of chance.

Variograms and covariance functions are key tools in geostatistics. However, various properties, characterizations, and decomposition theorems have been established for covariance functions only. We present analogous results for variograms and explore the connections with covariance functions. Our findings include criteria for covariance functions on intervals, and we apply them to exponential models, fractional Brownian motion, and locally polynomial covariances. In particular, we characterize isotropic locally polynomial covariance functions of degree 3.

The paper yields retrieval formulae of the directional distribution of a stationary k-flat process in ℝd if its rose of intersections with all r-flats is known. Cases k = d −1, 1 ≤ r ≤ d - 1 for arbitrary d and d = 4, k = 2, r = 2 are considered. Some generalizations to manifold processes in ℝd are made. The proofs use the methods of harmonic analysis on higher Grassmannians (spherical harmonics, integral transforms).