Let X i ≥ 0 be independent, i = 1,…, n, with known distributions and let X n *= max(X 1,…,X n ). The classical ‘ratio prophet inequality’ compares the return to a prophet, which is EX n *, to that of a mortal, who observes the X i s sequentially, and must resort to a stopping rule t. The mortal's return is V(X 1,…,X n ) = max EX t , where the maximum is over all stopping rules. The classical inequality states that EX n * < 2V(X 1,…,X n ). In the present paper the mortal is given k ≥ 1 chances to choose. If he uses stopping rules t 1,…,t k his return is E(max(X t1,…,X tk )). Let t(b) be the ‘simple threshold stopping rule’ defined to be the smallest i for which X i ≥ b, or n if there is no such i. We show that there always exists a proper choice of k thresholds, such that EX n * ≤ ((k+1)/k)Emax(X t1,…,X tk )), where t i is of the form t(b i ) with some added randomization. Actually the thresholds can be taken to be thej/(k+1) percentile points of the distribution of X n *, j = 1,…,k, and hence only knowledge of the distribution of X n * is needed.

It is common practice to approximate the cell loss probability (CLP) of cells entering a finite buffer by the overflow probability (OVFL) of a corresponding infinite buffer queue, since the CLP is typically harder to estimate. We obtain exact asymptotic results for CLP and OVFL for time-slotted queues where block arrivals in different time slots are i.i.d. and one cell is served per time slot. In this case the ratio of CLP to OVFL is asymptotically (1-ρ)/ρ, where ρ is the use or, equivalently, the mean arrival rate per time slot. Analogous asymptotic results are obtained for continuous time M/G/1 queues. In this case the ratio of CLP to OVFL is asymptotically 1-ρ.

Fast stable methods for inverting multidimensional Laplace transforms have been developed in recent years by Abate, Whitt and others. We use these methods here to compute numerically the first-passage-time distribution for a spectrally one-sided Lévy process; the basic algorithm is not easy to apply, and we have to develop a variant of it. The numerical performance is as good as the original algorithm.

We study the transformation of a non-stationary point process ξ on ℝn into a weakly stationary point process ͂ξ, with ͂ξ(B) = ξ(Φ-1(B)), where B is a Borel set, via a deformation Φ of the space ℝn . When the second-order measure is regular, Φ is uniquely determined by the homogenization equations of the second-order measure. In contrast, the first-order homogenization transformation is not unique. Several examples of point processes and transformations are investigated with a particular interest to Poisson processes.

We use embedding techniques to analyse the error of approximation of an optimal stopping problem along Brownian paths when Brownian motion is approximated by a random walk.

We study the (two-sided) exit time and position of a random walk outside boundaries which are regularly varying functions of smaller order at infinity than the square root. A natural domain of interest is those random walks which are attracted without centring to a normal law, or are relatively stable. These are shown to have ‘stable’ exit positions, in that the overshoot of the curved boundary is of smaller order of magnitude (in probability) than the boundary, as the boundary expands. Surprisingly, this remains true regardless of the shape of the boundary. Furthermore, within the same natural domain of interest, norming of the exit position by, for example, the square root of the exit time (in the finite-variance case), produces limiting distributions which are computable from corresponding functionals of Brownian motion. We give a functional limit theorem for attraction of normed sums to general infinitely divisible random variables, as a means of making this, and more general, computations. These kinds of theorems have applications in sequential analysis, for example.

The maximality principle [6] is shown to be valid in some examples of discounted optimal stopping problems for the maximum process. In each of these examples explicit formulas for the value functions are derived and the optimal stopping times are displayed. In particular, in the framework of the Black-Scholes model, the fair prices of two lookback options with infinite horizon are calculated. The main aim of the paper is to show that in each considered example the optimal stopping boundary satisfies the maximality principle and that the value function can be determined explicitly.

We show that the stationary distribution of a two-dimensional stochastic fluid network with (possibly dependent) Lévy inputs does not have product form other than in truly obvious cases. This is in contrast to queueing networks, where product form exists for non-obvious situations in which the inputs are independent, and for Brownian networks, where it typically exists for cases where the driving processes are actually dependent.

We discuss necessary and sufficient conditions for power-law and polynomial models to be correlation functions on bounded domains. These results date back to unpublished work by Matheron (1974) and generalize the findings of Gneiting (1999).

This paper introduces a fractional heat equation, where the diffusion operator is the composition of the Bessel and Riesz potentials. Sharp bounds are obtained for the variance of the spatial and temporal increments of the solution. These bounds establish the degree of singularity of the sample paths of the solution. In the case of unbounded spatial domain, a solution is formulated in terms of the Fourier transform of its spatially and temporally homogeneous Green function. The spectral density of the resulting solution is then obtained explicitly. The result implies that the solution of the fractional heat equation may possess spatial long-range dependence asymptotically.

Previous work on the joint asymptotic distribution of the sum and maxima of Gaussian processes is extended here. In particular, it is shown that for a stationary sequence of standard normal random variables with correlation function r, the condition r(n)ln n = o(1) as n → ∞ suffices to establish the asymptotic independence of the sum and maximum.

This paper considers the estimation and filtering of fractional random fields, of which fractional Brownian motion and fractional Riesz-Bessel motion are important special cases. A least-squares solution to the problem is derived by using the duality theory and covariance factorisation of fractional generalised random fields. The minimum fractional duality order of the information random field leads to the most general class of solutions corresponding to the largest function space where the output random field can be approximated. The second-order properties that define the class of random fields for which the least-squares linear estimation problem is solved in a weak-sense are also investigated in terms of the covariance spectrum of the information random field.

We consider a birth and growth model where points (‘seeds’) arrive on a line randomly in time and space and proceed to ‘cover’ the line by growing at a uniform rate in both directions until an opposing branch is met; points which arrive on covered parts of the line do not contribute to the process. Existing results concerning the number of seeds assume that points arrive according to a Poisson process, homogeneous on the line, but possibly inhomogeneous in time. We derive results under less stringent assumptions, namely that the arrival process be a stationary simple point process.

Martin and Walker ((1997) J. Appl. Prob.34, 657–670) proposed the power-law ρ(v) = c|v|-β, |v| ≥ 1, as a correlation model for stationary time series with long-memory dependence. A straightforward proof of their conjecture on the permissible range of c is given, and various other models for long-range dependence are discussed. In particular, the Cauchy family ρ(v) = (1 + |v/c|α)-β/α allows for the simultaneous fitting of both the long-term and short-term correlation structure within a simple analytical model. The note closes with hints at the fast and exact simulation of fractional Gaussian noise and related processes.

For a stationary long-range dependent point process N(.) with Palm distribution P0, the Hurst index H ≡ sup{h : lim sup t→∞t -2h var N(0,t] = ∞} is related to the moment index κ ≡ sup{k : E0(T k ) < ∞} of a generic stationary interval T between points (E0 denotes expectation with respect to P0) by 2H + κ ≥ 3, it being known that equality holds for a stationary renewal process. Thus, a stationary point process for which κ < 2 is necessarily long-range dependent with Hurst index greater than ½. An extended example of a Wold process shows that a stationary point process can be both long-range count dependent and long-range interval dependent and have finite mean square interval length, i.e., E0(T 2) < ∞.

In this paper, we first give a sufficient condition on the coefficients of a class of infinite time interval backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) under which the infinite time interval BSDEs have a unique solution for any given square integrable terminal value, and then, using the infinite time interval BSDEs, we study the convergence of g-martingales introduced by Peng via a kind of BSDEs. Finally, we study the applications of g-expectations and g-martingales in both finance and economics.

In this paper we investigate the application of perfect simulation, in particular Coupling from the Past (CFTP), to the simulation of random point processes. We give a general formulation of the method of dominated CFTP and apply it to the problem of perfect simulation of general locally stable point processes as equilibrium distributions of spatial birth-and-death processes. We then investigate discrete-time Metropolis-Hastings samplers for point processes, and show how a variant which samples systematically from cells can be converted into a perfect version. An application is given to the Strauss point process.

This paper investigates the dynamics of a synchronization node in isolation, and of networks of service and synchronization nodes. A synchronization node consists of M infinite capacity buffers, where tokens arriving on M distinct random input flows are stored (there is one buffer for each flow). Tokens are held in the buffers until one is available from each flow. When this occurs, a token is drawn from each buffer to form a group-token, which is instantaneously released as a synchronized departure. Under independent Poisson inputs, the output of a synchronization node is shown to converge weakly (and in certain cases strongly) to a Poisson process with rate equal to the minimum rate of the input flows. Hence synchronization preserves the Poisson property, as do superposition, Bernoulli sampling and M/M/1 queueing operations. We then consider networks of synchronization and exponential server nodes with Bernoulli routeing and exogenous Poisson arrivals, extending the standard Jackson network model to include synchronization nodes. It is shown that if the synchronization skeleton of the network is acyclic (i.e. no token visits any synchronization node twice although it may visit a service node repeatedly), then the distribution of the joint queue-length process of only the service nodes is product form (under standard stability conditions) and easily computable. Moreover, the network output flows converge weakly to Poisson processes. Finally, certain results for networks with finite capacity buffers are presented, and the limiting behavior of such networks as the buffer capacities become large is studied.

A generalization of Markov point processes is introduced in which interactions occur between connected components of the point pattern. A version of the Hammersley-Clifford characterization theorem is proved which states that a point process is a Markov interacting component process if and only if its density function is a product of interaction terms associated with cliques of connected components. Integrability and superpositional properties of the processes are shown and a pairwise interaction example is used for detailed exploration.

We analyze the smoothing effect of superposing homogeneous sources in a network. We consider a tandem queueing network representing the nodes that customers generated by these sources pass through. The servers in the tandem queues have different time varying service rates. In between the tandem queues there are propagation delays. We show that for arbitrary arrival and service processes which are mutually independent, the sum of unfinished works in the tandem queues is monotone in the number of homogeneous sources in the increasing convex order sense, provided the total intensity of the foreground traffic is constant. The results hold for both fluid and discrete traffic models.