We study the (two-sided) exit time and position of a random walk outside boundaries which are regularly varying functions of smaller order at infinity than the square root. A natural domain of interest is those random walks which are attracted without centring to a normal law, or are relatively stable. These are shown to have ‘stable’ exit positions, in that the overshoot of the curved boundary is of smaller order of magnitude (in probability) than the boundary, as the boundary expands. Surprisingly, this remains true regardless of the shape of the boundary. Furthermore, within the same natural domain of interest, norming of the exit position by, for example, the square root of the exit time (in the finite-variance case), produces limiting distributions which are computable from corresponding functionals of Brownian motion. We give a functional limit theorem for attraction of normed sums to general infinitely divisible random variables, as a means of making this, and more general, computations. These kinds of theorems have applications in sequential analysis, for example.

The maximality principle [6] is shown to be valid in some examples of discounted optimal stopping problems for the maximum process. In each of these examples explicit formulas for the value functions are derived and the optimal stopping times are displayed. In particular, in the framework of the Black-Scholes model, the fair prices of two lookback options with infinite horizon are calculated. The main aim of the paper is to show that in each considered example the optimal stopping boundary satisfies the maximality principle and that the value function can be determined explicitly.

We show that the stationary distribution of a two-dimensional stochastic fluid network with (possibly dependent) Lévy inputs does not have product form other than in truly obvious cases. This is in contrast to queueing networks, where product form exists for non-obvious situations in which the inputs are independent, and for Brownian networks, where it typically exists for cases where the driving processes are actually dependent.

We discuss necessary and sufficient conditions for power-law and polynomial models to be correlation functions on bounded domains. These results date back to unpublished work by Matheron (1974) and generalize the findings of Gneiting (1999).

This paper introduces a fractional heat equation, where the diffusion operator is the composition of the Bessel and Riesz potentials. Sharp bounds are obtained for the variance of the spatial and temporal increments of the solution. These bounds establish the degree of singularity of the sample paths of the solution. In the case of unbounded spatial domain, a solution is formulated in terms of the Fourier transform of its spatially and temporally homogeneous Green function. The spectral density of the resulting solution is then obtained explicitly. The result implies that the solution of the fractional heat equation may possess spatial long-range dependence asymptotically.

Previous work on the joint asymptotic distribution of the sum and maxima of Gaussian processes is extended here. In particular, it is shown that for a stationary sequence of standard normal random variables with correlation function r, the condition r(n)ln n = o(1) as n → ∞ suffices to establish the asymptotic independence of the sum and maximum.

This paper considers the estimation and filtering of fractional random fields, of which fractional Brownian motion and fractional Riesz-Bessel motion are important special cases. A least-squares solution to the problem is derived by using the duality theory and covariance factorisation of fractional generalised random fields. The minimum fractional duality order of the information random field leads to the most general class of solutions corresponding to the largest function space where the output random field can be approximated. The second-order properties that define the class of random fields for which the least-squares linear estimation problem is solved in a weak-sense are also investigated in terms of the covariance spectrum of the information random field.

We consider a birth and growth model where points (‘seeds’) arrive on a line randomly in time and space and proceed to ‘cover’ the line by growing at a uniform rate in both directions until an opposing branch is met; points which arrive on covered parts of the line do not contribute to the process. Existing results concerning the number of seeds assume that points arrive according to a Poisson process, homogeneous on the line, but possibly inhomogeneous in time. We derive results under less stringent assumptions, namely that the arrival process be a stationary simple point process.

Martin and Walker ((1997) J. Appl. Prob.34, 657–670) proposed the power-law ρ(v) = c|v|-β, |v| ≥ 1, as a correlation model for stationary time series with long-memory dependence. A straightforward proof of their conjecture on the permissible range of c is given, and various other models for long-range dependence are discussed. In particular, the Cauchy family ρ(v) = (1 + |v/c|α)-β/α allows for the simultaneous fitting of both the long-term and short-term correlation structure within a simple analytical model. The note closes with hints at the fast and exact simulation of fractional Gaussian noise and related processes.

For a stationary long-range dependent point process N(.) with Palm distribution P0, the Hurst index H ≡ sup{h : lim sup t→∞t -2h var N(0,t] = ∞} is related to the moment index κ ≡ sup{k : E0(T k ) < ∞} of a generic stationary interval T between points (E0 denotes expectation with respect to P0) by 2H + κ ≥ 3, it being known that equality holds for a stationary renewal process. Thus, a stationary point process for which κ < 2 is necessarily long-range dependent with Hurst index greater than ½. An extended example of a Wold process shows that a stationary point process can be both long-range count dependent and long-range interval dependent and have finite mean square interval length, i.e., E0(T 2) < ∞.

In this paper, we first give a sufficient condition on the coefficients of a class of infinite time interval backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) under which the infinite time interval BSDEs have a unique solution for any given square integrable terminal value, and then, using the infinite time interval BSDEs, we study the convergence of g-martingales introduced by Peng via a kind of BSDEs. Finally, we study the applications of g-expectations and g-martingales in both finance and economics.

In this paper we investigate the application of perfect simulation, in particular Coupling from the Past (CFTP), to the simulation of random point processes. We give a general formulation of the method of dominated CFTP and apply it to the problem of perfect simulation of general locally stable point processes as equilibrium distributions of spatial birth-and-death processes. We then investigate discrete-time Metropolis-Hastings samplers for point processes, and show how a variant which samples systematically from cells can be converted into a perfect version. An application is given to the Strauss point process.

This paper investigates the dynamics of a synchronization node in isolation, and of networks of service and synchronization nodes. A synchronization node consists of M infinite capacity buffers, where tokens arriving on M distinct random input flows are stored (there is one buffer for each flow). Tokens are held in the buffers until one is available from each flow. When this occurs, a token is drawn from each buffer to form a group-token, which is instantaneously released as a synchronized departure. Under independent Poisson inputs, the output of a synchronization node is shown to converge weakly (and in certain cases strongly) to a Poisson process with rate equal to the minimum rate of the input flows. Hence synchronization preserves the Poisson property, as do superposition, Bernoulli sampling and M/M/1 queueing operations. We then consider networks of synchronization and exponential server nodes with Bernoulli routeing and exogenous Poisson arrivals, extending the standard Jackson network model to include synchronization nodes. It is shown that if the synchronization skeleton of the network is acyclic (i.e. no token visits any synchronization node twice although it may visit a service node repeatedly), then the distribution of the joint queue-length process of only the service nodes is product form (under standard stability conditions) and easily computable. Moreover, the network output flows converge weakly to Poisson processes. Finally, certain results for networks with finite capacity buffers are presented, and the limiting behavior of such networks as the buffer capacities become large is studied.

A generalization of Markov point processes is introduced in which interactions occur between connected components of the point pattern. A version of the Hammersley-Clifford characterization theorem is proved which states that a point process is a Markov interacting component process if and only if its density function is a product of interaction terms associated with cliques of connected components. Integrability and superpositional properties of the processes are shown and a pairwise interaction example is used for detailed exploration.

We analyze the smoothing effect of superposing homogeneous sources in a network. We consider a tandem queueing network representing the nodes that customers generated by these sources pass through. The servers in the tandem queues have different time varying service rates. In between the tandem queues there are propagation delays. We show that for arbitrary arrival and service processes which are mutually independent, the sum of unfinished works in the tandem queues is monotone in the number of homogeneous sources in the increasing convex order sense, provided the total intensity of the foreground traffic is constant. The results hold for both fluid and discrete traffic models.

Classic works of Karlin and McGregor and Jones and Magnus have established a general correspondence between continuous-time birth-and-death processes and continued fractions of the Stieltjes-Jacobi type together with their associated orthogonal polynomials. This fundamental correspondence is revisited here in the light of the basic relation between weighted lattice paths and continued fractions otherwise known from combinatorial theory. Given that sample paths of the embedded Markov chain of a birth-and-death process are lattice paths, Laplace transforms of a number of transient characteristics can be obtained systematically in terms of a fundamental continued fraction and its family of convergent polynomials. Applications include the analysis of evolutions in a strip, upcrossing and downcrossing times under flooring and ceiling conditions, as well as time, area, or number of transitions while a geometric condition is satisfied.

A curious connection exists between the theory of optimal stopping for independent random variables, and branching processes. In particular, for the branching process Z n with offspring distribution Y, there exists a random variable X such that the probability P(Z n = 0) of extinction of the nth generation in the branching process equals the value obtained by optimally stopping the sequence X 1,…, X n , where these variables are i.i.d. distributed as X. Generalizations to the inhomogeneous and infinite horizon cases are also considered. This correspondence furnishes a simple ‘stopping rule’ method for computing various characteristics of branching processes, including rates of convergence of the nth generation's extinction probability to the eventual extinction probability, for the supercritical, critical and subcritical Galton-Watson process. Examples, bounds, further generalizations and a connection to classical prophet inequalities are presented. Throughout, the aim is to show how this unexpected connection can be used to translate methods from one area of applied probability to another, rather than to provide the most general results.

This paper studies the connection between the dynamical and equilibrium behaviour of large uncontrolled loss networks. We consider the behaviour of the number of calls of each type in the network, and show that, under the limiting regime of Kelly (1986), all trajectories of the limiting dynamics converge to a single fixed point, which is necessarily that on which the limiting stationary distribution is concentrated. The approach uses Lyapunov techniques and involves the evolution of the transition rates of a stationary Markov process in such a way that it tends to reversibility.

Consider a situation where a known number, n, of objects appear sequentiallyin a random order. At each stage, the present object is presented to d ≥ 2 different selectors, who must jointly decide whether to select or reject it, irrevocably. Exactly one object must be chosen. The observation at stage j is a d-dimensional vector R (j) = (R 1(j),…, R d (j)), where R i (j) is the relative rank of the jth object, by the criterion of the ith selector. The decision whether to stop or not at time j is based on the d-dimensional random vectors R (1),…, R (j). The criteria according to which each selector ranks the objects can either be dependent or independent. Although the goal of each selector is to maximize the probability of choosing the best object from his/her point of view, all d selectors must cooperate and chose the same object. The objective studied here is the maximization of the minimum over the d individual probabilities of choosing the best object. We exhibit the structure of the optimal rule. For independent criteria we give a full description of the rule and show that the optimal value tends to d -d/(d-1), as n → ∞. Furthermore, we show that as n → ∞, the liminf of the values under negatively associated criteria is bounded below by d -d/(d-1).

Consider the following birth-growth model in ℝ. Seeds are born randomly according to an inhomogeneous space-time Poisson process. A newly formed point immediately initiates a bi-directional coverage by sending out a growing branch. Each frontier of a branch moves at a constant speed until it meets an opposing one. New seeds continue to form on the uncovered parts on the line. We are interested in the time until a bounded interval is completely covered. The exact and limiting distributions as the length of interval tends to infinity are obtained for this completion time by considering a related Markov process. Moreover, some strong limit results are also established.