We analyze asymptotically a differential-difference equation that arises in a Markov-modulated fluid model. We use singular perturbation methods to analyze the problem with appropriate scalings of the two state variables. In particular, the ray method and asymptotic matching are used.

A controlled heterogeneous collection of identical items is presented. According to their level of wear and tear, they are divided into a finite number of classes and the partition of the collection is allowed to change over time. A suitable exchangeability assumption is made to preserve the property that the items be identical. The role of the occupation numbers is investigated and a filtering problem is set up, where the observation is the cardinality of a particular class. A control on the dynamics of the items is introduced, and the existence of an optimal control is proved. A discrete-time approximation for the separated problem, which is a finite-dimensional one, is performed. As a consequence, an approximation for the value function is given.

We study the survival properties of inhomogeneous Galton-Watson processes. We determine the so-called branching number (which is the reciprocal of the critical value for percolation) for these random trees (conditioned on being infinite), which turns out to be an almost sure constant. We also shed some light on the way in which the survival probability varies between the generations. When we perform independent percolation on the family tree of an inhomogeneous Galton-Watson process, the result is essentially a family of inhomogeneous Galton-Watson processes, parameterized by the retention probability p. We provide growth rates, uniformly in p, of the percolation clusters, and also show uniform convergence of the survival probability from the nth level along subsequences. These results also establish, as a corollary, the supercritical continuity of the percolation function. Some of our results are generalizations of results in Lyons (1992).

We compute the posterior distributions of the initial population and parameter of binary branching processes in the limit of a large number of generations. We compare this Bayesian procedure with a more naïve one, based on hitting times of some random walks. In both cases, central limit theorems are available, with explicit variances.

We introduce a class of stochastic processes in discrete time with finite state space by means of a simple matrix product. We show that this class coincides with that of the hidden Markov chains and provides a compact framework for it. We study a measure obtained by a projection on the real line of the uniform measure on the Sierpinski gasket, finding that the dimension of this measure fits with the Shannon entropy of an associated hidden Markov chain.

The present paper generalises some results for spectrally negative Lévy processes to the setting of Markov additive processes (MAPs). A prominent role is assumed by the first passage times, which will be determined in terms of their Laplace transforms. These have the form of a phase-type distribution, with a rate matrix that can be regarded as an inverse function of the cumulant matrix. A numerically stable iteration to compute this matrix is given. The theory is first developed for MAPs without positive jumps and then extended to include positive jumps having phase-type distributions. Numerical and analytical examples show agreement with existing results in special cases.

Let X and Y be two simple symmetric continuous-time random walks on the vertices of the n-dimensional hypercube, Z 2 n . We consider the class of co-adapted couplings of these processes, and describe an intuitive coupling which is shown to be the fastest in this class.

We study a particular example of a recursive distributional equation (RDE) on the unit interval. We identify all invariant distributions, the corresponding ‘basins of attraction’, and address the issue of endogeny for the associated tree-indexed problem, making use of an extension of a recent result of Warren.

We study the susceptible-infected-susceptible model of the spread of an endemic infection. We calculate an exact expression for the mean number of transmissions for all values of the population size (N) and the infectivity. We derive the large-N asymptotic behavior for the infectivitiy below, above, and in the critical region. We obtain an analytical expression for the probability distribution of the number of transmissions, n, in the critical region. We show that this distribution has an n -3/2 singularity for small n and decays exponentially for large n. The exponent decreases with the distance from the threshold, diverging to ∞ far below and approaching 0 far above.

We establish a functional large deviation principle and a functional moderate deviation principle for Markov-modulated risk models with reinsurance by constructing an exponential martingale approach. Lundberg's estimate of the ruin time is also presented.

We consider the M/M/∞ queue with m primary servers and infinitely many secondary servers. All the servers are numbered and ordered. An arriving customer takes the lowest available server. We define the wasted spaces as the difference between the highest numbered occupied server and the total number of occupied servers. Letting ρ = λ0/μ be the ratio of arrival to service rates, we study the probability distribution of the wasted spaces asymptotically for ρ → ∞. We also give some numerical results and the tail behavior for ρ = O(1).

We describe the genealogy of individuals with infinite descent in a supercritical continuous-state branching process.

The aim of this paper is to provide the conditions necessary to reduce the complexity of state filtering for finite stochastic systems (FSSs). A concept of lumpability for FSSs is introduced. In this paper we assert that the unnormalised filter for a lumped FSS has linear dynamics. Two sufficient conditions for such a lumpability property to hold are discussed. We show that the first condition is also necessary for the lumped FSS to have linear dynamics. Next, we prove that the second condition allows the filter of the original FSS to be obtained directly from the filter for the lumped FSS. Finally, we generalise an earlier published result for the approximation of a general FSS by a lumpable FSS.

A Riesz space-fractional reaction–dispersion equation (RSFRDE) is obtained from the classical reaction–dispersion equation (RDE) by replacing the second-order space derivative with a Riesz derivative of order β∈(1,2]. In this paper, using Laplace and Fourier transforms, we obtain the fundamental solution for a RSFRDE. We propose an explicit finite-difference approximation for a RSFRDE in a bounded spatial domain, and analyse its stability and convergence. Some numerical examples are presented.

While the convergence properties of many sampling selection methods can be proven, there is one particular sampling selection method introduced in Baker (1987), closely related to ‘systematic sampling’ in statistics, that has been exclusively treated on an empirical basis. The main motivation of the paper is to start to study formally its convergence properties, since in practice it is by far the fastest selection method available. We will show that convergence results for the systematic sampling selection method are related to properties of peculiar Markov chains.

Using fluctuation theory, we solve the two-sided exit problem and identify the ruin probability for a general spectrally negative Lévy risk process with tax payments of a loss-carry-forward type. We study arbitrary moments of the discounted total amount of tax payments and determine the surplus level to start taxation which maximises the expected discounted aggregate income for the tax authority in this model. The results considerably generalise those for the Cramér-Lundberg risk model with tax.

In this paper we analyze players' long-run behavior in evolutionary coordination games with imperfect monitoring in a large population. Players can observe signals corresponding to other players' unseen actions and use the proposed simple or maximum likelihood estimation algorithm to extract information from the signals. In the simple learning process we find conditions for the risk-dominant and the non-risk-dominant equilibria to emerge alone in the long run. Furthermore, we find that the two equilibria can coexist in the long run. In contrast, the coexistence of the two equilibria is the only limit distribution under the maximum likelihood estimation learning algorithm. We also analyze the long-run equilibria of other 2x2 symmetric games under imperfect monitoring.

In this paper we consider reflected diffusions with positive and negative jumps, constrained to lie in the nonnegative orthant of ℝn . We allow for the drift and diffusion coefficients, as well as for the directions of reflection, to be random fields over time and space. We provide a boundary behavior characterization, generalizing known results in the nonrandom coefficients and constant directions of the reflection case. In particular, the regulator processes are related to semimartingale local times at the boundaries, and they are shown not to charge the times the process expends at the intersection of boundary faces. Using the boundary results, we extend the conditions for product-form distributions in the stationary regime to the case when the drift and diffusion coefficients, as well as the directions of reflection, are random fields over space.

We give a new method for simulating the time average steady-state distribution of a continuous-time queueing system, by extending a ‘read-once’ or ‘forward’ version of the coupling from the past (CFTP) algorithm developed for discrete-time Markov chains. We then use this to give a new proof of the ‘Poisson arrivals see time averages’ (PASTA) property, and a new proof for why renewal arrivals see either stochastically smaller or larger congestion than the time average if interarrival times are respectively new better than used in expectation (NBUE) or new worse than used in expectation (NWUE).

The mean time to extinction of a critical Galton-Watson process with initial population size k is shown to be asymptotically equivalent to two integral transforms: one involving the kth iterate of the probability generating function and one involving the generating function itself. Relating the growth of these transforms to the regular variation of their arguments, immediately connects statements involving the regular variation of the probability generating function, its iterates at 0, the quasistationary measures, their partial sums, and the limiting distribution of the time to extinction. In the critical case of finite variance we also give the growth of the mean time to extinction, conditioned on extinction occurring by time n.