Conditional risk measures and their associated risk contribution measures are commonly employed in finance and actuarial science for evaluating systemic risk and quantifying the effects of risk interactions. This paper introduces various types of contribution ratio measures based on the multivariate conditional value-at-risk (MCoVaR), multivariate conditional expected shortfall (MCoES), and multivariate marginal mean excess (MMME) studied in [34] (Ortega-Jiménez, P., Sordo, M., & Suárez-Llorens, A. (2021). Stochastic orders and multivariate measures of risk contagion. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, vol. 96, 199–207) and [11] (Das, B., & Fasen-Hartmann, V. (2018). Risk contagion under regular variation and asymptotic tail independence. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 165(1), 194–215) to assess the relative effects of a single risk when other risks in a group are in distress. The properties of these contribution risk measures are examined, and sufficient conditions for comparing these measures between two sets of random vectors are established using univariate and multivariate stochastic orders and statistically dependent notions. Numerical examples are presented to validate these conditions. Finally, a real dataset from the cryptocurrency market is used to analyze the spillover effects through our proposed contribution measures.

This paper defines and studies a broad class of shock models by assuming that a Markovian arrival process models the arrival pattern of shocks. Under the defined class, we show that the system’s lifetime follows the well-known phase-type distribution. Further, we examine the age replacement policy for systems with a continuous phase-type distribution, identifying sufficient conditions for determining the optimal replacement time. Since phase-type distributions are dense in the class of lifetime distributions, our findings for the age replacement policy are widely applicable. We include numerical examples and graphical illustrations to support our results.

We consider the hard-core model on a finite square grid graph with stochastic Glauber dynamics parametrized by the inverse temperature $\beta$. We investigate how the transition between its two maximum-occupancy configurations takes place in the low-temperature regime $\beta \to \infty$ in the case of periodic boundary conditions. The hard-core constraints and the grid symmetry make the structure of the critical configurations for this transition, also known as essential saddles, very rich and complex. We provide a comprehensive geometrical characterization of these configurations that together constitute a bottleneck for the Glauber dynamics in the low-temperature limit. In particular, we develop a novel isoperimetric inequality for hard-core configurations with a fixed number of particles and show how the essential saddles are characterized not only by the number of particles but also their geometry.

We consider interacting urns on a finite directed network, where both sampling and reinforcement processes depend on the nodes of the network. This extends previous research by incorporating node-dependent sampling and reinforcement. We classify the sampling and reinforcement schemes, as well as the networks on which the proportion of balls of either colour in each urn converges almost surely to a deterministic limit. We also investigate conditions for achieving synchronisation of the colour proportions across the urns and analyse fluctuations under specific conditions on the reinforcement scheme and network structure.

We introduce and study a game-theoretic model to understand the spread of an epidemic in a homogeneous population. A discrete-time stochastic process is considered where, in each epoch, first, a randomly chosen agent updates their action trying to maximize a proposed utility function, and then agents who have viral exposures beyond their immunity get infected. Our main results discuss asymptotic limiting distributions of both the cardinality of the subset of infected agents and the action profile, considered under various values of two parameters (initial action and immunity profile). We also show that the theoretical distributions are almost always achieved in the first few epochs.

The problem of reservation in a large distributed system is analyzed via a new mathematical model. The target application is car-sharing systems. This model is motivated by the large station-based car-sharing system in France called Autolib’. This system can be described as a closed stochastic network where the nodes are the stations and the customers are the cars. The user can reserve a car and a parking space. We study the evolution of the system when the reservation of parking spaces and cars is effective for all users. The asymptotic behavior of the underlying stochastic network is given when the number N of stations and the fleet size M increase at the same rate. The analysis involves a Markov process on a state space with dimension of order $N^2$. It is quite remarkable that the state process describing the evolution of the stations, whose dimension is of order N, converges in distribution, although not Markov, to a non-homogeneous Markov process. We prove this mean-field convergence. We also prove, using combinatorial arguments, that the mean-field limit has a unique equilibrium measure when the time between reserving and picking up the car is sufficiently small. This result extends the case where only the parking space can be reserved.

In this paper, we analyze a polling system on a circle. Random batches of customers arrive at a circle, where each customer, independently, obtains a location that is uniformly distributed on the circle. A single server cyclically traverses the circle to serve all customers. Using mean value analysis, we derive the expected number of waiting customers within a given distance of the server. We exploit this to obtain closed-form expressions for both the mean batch sojourn time and the mean time to delivery.

This paper obtains logarithmic asymptotics of moderate deviations of the stochastic process of the number of customers in a many-server queue with generally distributed inter-arrival and service times under a heavy-traffic scaling akin to the Halfin–Whitt regime. The deviation function is expressed in terms of the solution to a Fredholm equation of the second kind. A key element of the proof is the large-deviation principle in the scaling of moderate deviations for the sequential empirical process. The techniques of large-deviation convergence and idempotent processes are used extensively.

The box-ball systems are integrable cellular automata whose long-time behavior is characterized by soliton solutions, with rich connections to other integrable systems such as the Korteweg-de Vries equation. In this paper, we consider a multicolor box-ball system with two types of random initial configurations and obtain sharp scaling limits of the soliton lengths as the system size tends to infinity. We obtain a sharp scaling limit of soliton lengths that turns out to be more delicate than that in the single color case established in [LLP20]. A large part of our analysis is devoted to studying the associated carrier process, which is a multidimensional Markov chain on the orthant, whose excursions and running maxima are closely related to soliton lengths. We establish the sharp scaling of its ruin probabilities, Skorokhod decomposition, strong law of large numbers and weak diffusive scaling limit to a semimartingale reflecting Brownian motion with explicit parameters. We also establish and utilize complementary descriptions of the soliton lengths and numbers in terms of modified Greene-Kleitman invariants for the box-ball systems and associated circular exclusion processes.

The distribution theory for discrete-time renewal–reward processes with dependent rewards is developed through the derivation of double transforms. By dependent, we mean the more realistic setting in which the reward for an interarrival period is dependent on the duration of the associated interarrival time. The double transforms are the generating functions in time of the time-dependent reward probability-generating functions. Residue and saddlepoint approximations are used to invert such double transforms so that the reward distribution at arbitrary time n can be accurately approximated. In addition, double transforms are developed for the first-passage time distribution that the cumulative reward exceeds a fixed threshold amount. These distributions are accurately approximated by inverting the double transforms using residue and saddlepoint approximation methods. The residue methods also provide asymptotic expansions for moments and allow for the proof of central limit theorems related to these first passage times and reward amounts.

We consider the constrained-degree percolation model in a random environment (CDPRE) on the square lattice. In this model, each vertex v has an independent random constraint $\kappa_v$ which takes the value $j\in \{0,1,2,3\}$ with probability $\rho_j$. The dynamics is as follows: at time $t=0$ all edges are closed; each edge e attempts to open at a random time $U(e)\sim \mathrm{U}(0,1]$, independently of all the other edges. It succeeds if at time U(e) both its end vertices have degrees strictly smaller than their respective constraints. We obtain exponential decay of the radius of the open cluster of the origin at all times when its expected size is finite. Since CDPRE is dominated by Bernoulli percolation, this result is meaningful only if the supremum of all values of t for which the expected size of the open cluster of the origin is finite is larger than $\frac12$. We prove this last fact by showing a sharp phase transition for an intermediate model.

Consider a branching random walk on the real line with a random environment in time (BRWRE). A necessary and sufficient condition for the non-triviality of the limit of the derivative martingale is formulated. To this end, we investigate the random walk in a time-inhomogeneous random environment (RWRE), which is related to the BRWRE by the many-to-one formula. The key step is to figure out Tanaka’s decomposition for the RWRE conditioned to stay non-negative (or above a line), which is interesting in itself.

We analyze the process M(t) representing the maximum of the one-dimensional telegraph process X(t) with exponentially distributed upward random times and generally distributed downward random times. The evolution of M(t) is governed by an alternating renewal of two phases: a rising phase R and a constant phase C. During a rising phase, X(t) moves upward, whereas, during a constant phase, it moves upward and downward, continuing to move until it attains the maximal level previously reached. Under some choices of the distribution of the downward times, we are able to determine the distribution of C, which allows us to obtain some bounds for the survival function of M(t). In the particular case of exponential downward random times, we derive an explicit expression for the survival function of M(t). Finally, the moments of the first passage time $\Theta_w$ of the process X(t) through a fixed boundary $w>0$ are analyzed.

We investigate the tail behavior of the first-passage time for Sinai’s random walk in a random environment. Our method relies on the connection between Sinai’s walk and branching processes with immigration in a random environment, and the analysis on some important quantities of these branching processes such as extinction time, maximum population, and total population.

We answer the following question: if the occupied (or vacant) set of a planar Poisson Boolean percolation model contains a crossing of an $n\times n$ square, how wide is this crossing? The answer depends on whether we consider the critical, sub-, or super-critical regime, and is different for the occupied and vacant sets.

We introduce gradient flow aggregation, a random growth model. Given existing particles $\{x_1,\ldots,x_n\} \subset \mathbb{R}^2$, a new particle arrives from a random direction at $\infty$ and flows in direction of the vector field $\nabla E$ where $ E(x) = \sum_{i=1}^{n}{1}/{\|x-x_i\|^{\alpha}}$, $0 < \alpha < \infty$. The case $\alpha = 0$ refers to the logarithmic energy ${-}\sum\log\|x-x_i\|$. Particles stop once they are at distance 1 from one of the existing particles, at which point they are added to the set and remain fixed for all time. We prove, under a non-degeneracy assumption, a Beurling-type estimate which, via Kesten’s method, can be used to deduce sub-ballistic growth for $0 \leq \alpha < 1$, $\text{diam}(\{x_1,\ldots,x_n\}) \leq c_{\alpha} \cdot n^{({3 \alpha +1})/({2\alpha + 2})}$. This is optimal when $\alpha = 0$. The case $\alpha = 0$ leads to a ‘round’ full-dimensional tree. The larger the value of $\alpha$, the sparser the tree. Some instances of the higher-dimensional setting are also discussed.

In this paper, a new multivariate counting process model (called Multivariate Poisson Generalized Gamma Process) is developed and its main properties are studied. Some basic stochastic properties of the number of events in the new multivariate counting process are initially derived. It is shown that this new multivariate counting process model includes the multivariate generalized Pólya process as a special case. The dependence structure of the multivariate counting process model is discussed. Some results on multivariate stochastic comparisons are also obtained.

We derive an asymptotic expansion for the critical percolation density of the random connection model as the dimension of the encapsulating space tends to infinity. We calculate rigorously the first expansion terms for the Gilbert disk model, the hyper-cubic model, the Gaussian connection kernel, and a coordinate-wise Cauchy kernel.

We study the low-temperature $(2+1)$D solid-on-solid model on with zero boundary conditions and nonnegative heights (a floor at height $0$). Caputo et al. (2016) established that this random surface typically admits either $\mathfrak h $ or $\mathfrak h+1$ many nested macroscopic level line loops $\{\mathcal L_i\}_{i\geq 0}$ for an explicit $\mathfrak h\asymp \log L$, and its top loop $\mathcal L_0$ has cube-root fluctuations: For example, if $\rho (x)$ is the vertical displacement of $\mathcal L_0$ from the bottom boundary point $(x,0)$, then $\max \rho (x) = L^{1/3+o(1)}$ over . It is believed that rescaling $\rho $ by $L^{1/3}$ and $I_0$ by $L^{2/3}$ would yield a limit law of a diffusion on $[-1,1]$. However, no nontrivial lower bound was known on $\rho (x)$ for a fixed $x\in I_0$ (e.g., $x=\frac L2$), let alone on $\min \rho (x)$ in $I_0$, to complement the bound on $\max \rho (x)$. Here, we show a lower bound of the predicted order $L^{1/3}$: For every $\epsilon>0$, there exists $\delta>0$ such that $\min _{x\in I_0} \rho (x) \geq \delta L^{1/3}$ with probability at least $1-\epsilon $. The proof relies on the Ornstein–Zernike machinery due to Campanino–Ioffe–Velenik and a result of Ioffe, Shlosman and Toninelli (2015) that rules out pinning in Ising polymers with modified interactions along the boundary. En route, we refine the latter result into a Brownian excursion limit law, which may be of independent interest. We further show that in a $ K L^{2/3}\times K L^{2/3}$ box with boundary conditions $\mathfrak h-1,\mathfrak h,\mathfrak h,\mathfrak h$ (i.e., $\mathfrak h-1$ on the bottom side and $\mathfrak h$ elsewhere), the limit of $\rho (x)$ as $K,L\to \infty $ is a Ferrari–Spohn diffusion.

We revisit processes generated by iterated random functions driven by a stationary and ergodic sequence. Such a process is called strongly stable if a random initialization exists for which the process is stationary and ergodic, and for any other initialization the difference of the two processes converges to zero almost surely. Under some mild conditions on the corresponding recursive map, without any condition on the driving sequence we show the strong stability of iterations. Several applications are surveyed such as generalized autoregression and queuing. Furthermore, new results are deduced for Langevin-type iterations with dependent noise and for multitype branching processes.