We study ergodic properties of a class of Markov-modulated general birth–death processes under fast regime switching. The first set of results concerns the ergodic properties of the properly scaled joint Markov process with a parameter that is taken to be large. Under very weak hypotheses, we show that if the averaged process is exponentially ergodic for large values of the parameter, then the same applies to the original joint Markov process. The second set of results concerns steady-state diffusion approximations, under the assumption that the ‘averaged’ fluid limit exists. Here, we establish convergence rates for the moments of the approximating diffusion process to those of the Markov-modulated birth–death process. This is accomplished by comparing the generator of the approximating diffusion and that of the joint Markov process. We also provide several examples which demonstrate how the theory can be applied.

In this paper, we introduce a family of processes with values on the nonnegative integers that describes the dynamics of populations where individuals are allowed to have different types of interactions. The types of interactions that we consider include pairwise interactions, such as competition, annihilation, and cooperation; and interactions among several individuals that can be viewed as catastrophes. We call such families of processes branching processes with interactions. Our aim is to study their long-term behaviour under a specific regime of the pairwise interaction parameters that we introduce as the subcritical cooperative regime. Under such a regime, we prove that a process in this class comes down from infinity and has a moment dual which turns out to be a jump-diffusion that can be thought as the evolution of the frequency of a trait or phenotype, and whose parameters have a classical interpretation in terms of population genetics. The moment dual is an important tool for characterizing the stationary distribution of branching processes with interactions whenever such a distribution exists; it is also an interesting object in its own right.

The peeling process, which describes a step-by-step exploration of a planar map, has been instrumental in addressing percolation problems on random infinite planar maps. Bond and face percolations on maps with faces of arbitrary degree are conveniently studied via so-called lazy-peeling explorations. During such explorations, distinct vertices on the exploration contour may, at latter stage, be identified, making the process less suited to the study of site percolation. To tackle this situation and to explicitly identify site-percolation thresholds, we come back to the alternative “simple” peeling exploration of Angel and uncover deep relations with the lazy-peeling process. Along the way, we define and study the random Boltzmann map of the half-plane with a simple boundary for an arbitrary critical weight sequence. Its construction is nontrivial especially in the “dense regime,” where the half-planar random Boltzmann map does not possess an infinite simple core.

Extended gamma processes have been seen as a flexible extension of standard gamma processes in the recent reliability literature, for the purpose of cumulative deterioration modeling. The probabilistic properties of the standard gamma process have been well explored since the 1970s, whereas those of its extension remain largely unexplored. In particular, stochastic comparisons between degradation levels modeled by standard gamma processes and ageing properties for the corresponding level-crossing times are now well understood. The aim of this paper is to explore similar properties for extended gamma processes and see which ones can be broadened to this new context. As a by-product, new stochastic comparisons for convolutions of gamma random variables are also obtained.

Let $\boldsymbol{f}$ be a square-integrable, zero-mean, random vector with observable realizations in a Hilbert space H, and let $\boldsymbol{g}$ be an associated square-integrable, zero-mean, random vector with realizations which are not observable in a Hilbert space K. We seek an optimal filter in the form of a closed linear operator X acting on the observable realizations of a proximate vector $\boldsymbol{f}_{\epsilon } \approx \boldsymbol{f}$ that provides the best estimate $\widehat{\boldsymbol{g}}_{\epsilon} = X \boldsymbol{f}_{\epsilon}$ of the vector $\boldsymbol{g}$. We assume the required covariance operators are known. The results are illustrated with a typical example.

We consider the system of one-sided reflected Brownian motions that is in variational duality with Brownian last passage percolation. We show that it has integrable transition probabilities, expressed in terms of Hermite polynomials and hitting times of exponential random walks, and that it converges in the 1:2:3 scaling limit to the KPZ fixed point, the scaling-invariant Markov process defined in [MQR17] and believed to govern the long-time, large-scale fluctuations for all models in the KPZ universality class. Brownian last-passage percolation was shown recently in [DOV18] to converge to the Airy sheet (or directed landscape), defined there as a strong limit of a functional of the Airy line ensemble. This establishes the variational formula for the KPZ fixed point in terms of the Airy sheet.

We would like to correct the statement of Lemma 4.1 in [BDK+18].

This paper considers ergodic, continuous-time Markov chains $\{X(t)\}_{t \in (\!-\infty,\infty)}$ on $\mathbb{Z}^+=\{0,1,\ldots\}$. For an arbitrarily fixed $N \in \mathbb{Z}^+$, we study the conditional stationary distribution $\boldsymbol{\pi}(N)$ given the Markov chain being in $\{0,1,\ldots,N\}$. We first characterize $\boldsymbol{\pi}(N)$ via systems of linear inequalities and identify simplices that contain $\boldsymbol{\pi}(N)$, by examining the $(N+1) \times (N+1)$ northwest corner block of the infinitesimal generator $\textbf{\textit{Q}}$ and the subset of the first $N+1$ states whose members are directly reachable from at least one state in $\{N+1,N+2,\ldots\}$. These results are closely related to the augmented truncation approximation (ATA), and we provide some practical implications for the ATA. Next we consider an extension of the above results, using the $(K+1) \times (K+1)$ ($K > N$) northwest corner block of $\textbf{\textit{Q}}$ and the subset of the first $K+1$ states whose members are directly reachable from at least one state in $\{K+1,K+2,\ldots\}$. Furthermore, we introduce new state transition structures called (K, N)-skip-free sets, using which we obtain the minimum convex polytope that contains $\boldsymbol{\pi}(N)$.

We consider the problem of numerical integration when the sampling nodes form a stationary point process on the real line. In previous papers it was argued that a naïve Riemann sum approach can cause a severe variance inflation when the sampling points are not equidistant. We show that this inflation can be avoided using a higher-order Newton–Cotes quadrature rule which exploits smoothness properties of the integrand. Under mild assumptions, the resulting estimator is unbiased and its variance asymptotically obeys a power law as a function of the mean point distance. If the Newton–Cotes rule is of sufficiently high order, the exponent of this law turns out to only depend on the point process through its mean point distance. We illustrate our findings with the stereological estimation of the volume of a compact object, suggesting alternatives to the well-established Cavalieri estimator.

Fractal percolation exhibits a dramatic topological phase transition, changing abruptly from a dust-like set to a system-spanning cluster. The transition points are unknown and difficult to estimate. In many classical percolation models the percolation thresholds have been approximated well using additive geometric functionals, known as intrinsic volumes. Motivated by the question of whether a similar approach is possible for fractal models, we introduce corresponding geometric functionals for the fractal percolation process F. They arise as limits of expected functionals of finite approximations of F. We establish the existence of these limit functionals and obtain explicit formulas for them as well as for their finite approximations.

We introduce a multivariate class of distributions with support I, a k-orthotope in $[0,\infty)^{k}$, which is dense in the set of all k-dimensional distributions with support I. We call this new class ‘multivariate finite-support phase-type distributions’ (MFSPH). Though we generally define MFSPH distributions on any finite k-orthotope in $[0,\infty)^{k}$, here we mainly deal with MFSPH distributions with support $[0,1)^{k}$. The distribution function of an MFSPH variate is computed by using that of a variate in the MPH$^{*} $ class, the multivariate class of distributions introduced by Kulkarni (1989). The marginal distributions of MFSPH variates are found as FSPH distributions, the class studied by Ramaswami and Viswanath (2014). Some properties, including the mixture property, of MFSPH distributions are established. Estimates of the parameters of a particular class of bivariate finite-support phase-type distributions are found by using the expectation-maximization algorithm. Simulated samples are used to demonstrate how this class could be used as approximations for bivariate finite-support distributions.

We consider a multivariate Lévy process where the first coordinate is a Lévy process with no negative jumps which is not a subordinator and the others are non-decreasing. We determine the Laplace–Stieltjes transform of the steady-state buffer content vector of an associated system of parallel queues. The special structure of this transform allows us to rewrite it as a product of joint Laplace–Stieltjes transforms. We are thus able to interpret the buffer content vector as a sum of independent random vectors.

In this paper, to model cascading failures, a new stochastic failure model is proposed. In a system subject to cascading failures, after each failure of the component, the remaining component suffers from increased load or stress. This results in shortened residual lifetimes of the remaining components. In this paper, to model this effect, the concept of the usual stochastic order is employed along with the accelerated life test model, and a new general class of stochastic failure models is generated.

We construct a multitype constant-size population model allowing for general selective interactions as well as extreme reproductive events. Our multidimensional model aims for the generality of adaptive dynamics and the tractability of population genetics. It generalises the idea of Krone and Neuhauser [39] and González Casanova and Spanò [29], who represented the selection by allowing individuals to sample several potential parents in the previous generation before choosing the ‘strongest’ one, by allowing individuals to use any rule to choose their parent. The type of the newborn can even not be one of the types of the potential parents, which allows modelling mutations. Via a large population limit, we obtain a generalisation of $\Lambda$-Fleming–Viot processes, with a diffusion term and a general frequency-dependent selection, which allows for non-transitive interactions between the different types present in the population. We provide some properties of these processes related to extinction and fixation events, and give conditions for them to be realised as unique strong solutions of multidimensional stochastic differential equations with jumps. Finally, we illustrate the generality of our model with applications to some classical biological interactions. This framework provides a natural bridge between two of the most prominent modelling frameworks of biological evolution: population genetics and eco-evolutionary models.

This paper gives a self-contained proof of the non-existence of nontrivial bi-infinite geodesics in directed planar last-passage percolation with exponential weights. The techniques used are couplings, coarse graining, and control of geodesics through planarity and estimates derived from increment-stationary versions of the last-passage percolation process.

We provide a new proof of the existence of Gibbs point processes with infinite range interactions, based on the compactness of entropy levels. Our main existence theorem holds under two assumptions. The first one is the standard stability assumption, which means that the energy of any finite configuration is superlinear with respect to the number of points. The second assumption is the so-called intensity regularity, which controls the long range of the interaction via the intensity of the process. This assumption is new and introduced here since it is well adapted to the entropy approach. As a corollary of our main result we improve the existence results by Ruelle (1970) for pairwise interactions by relaxing the superstabilty assumption. Note that our setting is not reduced to pairwise interaction and can contain infinite-range multi-body counterparts.

For independent exponentially distributed random variables $X_i$, $i\in {\mathcal{N}}$, with distinct rates ${\lambda}_i$ we consider sums $\sum_{i\in\mathcal{A}} X_i$ for $\mathcal{A}\subseteq {\mathcal{N}}$ which follow generalized exponential mixture distributions. We provide novel explicit results on the conditional distribution of the total sum $\sum_{i\in {\mathcal{N}}}X_i$ given that a subset sum $\sum_{j\in \mathcal{A}}X_j$ exceeds a certain threshold value $t>0$, and vice versa. Moreover, we investigate the characteristic tail behavior of these conditional distributions for $t\to\infty$. Finally, we illustrate how our probabilistic results can be applied in practice by providing examples from both reliability theory and risk management.

We investigate the Hawkes processes on the positive real line exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. Each point of such a point process impacts its future intensity by the addition of a signed reproduction function. The case of a nonnegative reproduction function corresponds to self-excitation, and has been widely investigated in the literature. In particular, there exists a cluster representation of the Hawkes process which allows one to apply known results for Galton–Watson trees. We use renewal techniques to establish limit theorems for Hawkes processes that have reproduction functions which are signed and have bounded support. Notably, we prove exponential concentration inequalities, extending results of Reynaud-Bouret and Roy (2006) previously proven for nonnegative reproduction functions using a cluster representation no longer valid in our case. Importantly, we establish the existence of exponential moments for renewal times of M/G/$\infty$ queues which appear naturally in our problem. These results possess interest independent of the original problem.

We consider the threshold-one contact process, the threshold-one voter model and the threshold-one voter model with positive spontaneous death on homogeneous trees $\mathbb{T}_d$, $d\ge 2$. Mainly inspired by the corresponding arguments for the contact process, we prove that the complete convergence theorem holds for these three systems under strong survival. When the system survives weakly, complete convergence may also hold under certain transition and/or initial conditions.

This paper studies the scaling of the expected total queue size in an $n\times n$ input-queued switch, as a function of both the load $\rho$ and the system scale n. We provide a new class of scheduling policies under which the expected total queue size scales as $O\big( n(1-\rho)^{-4/3} \log \big(\!\max\big\{\frac{1}{1-\rho}, n\big\}\big)\big)$, over all n and $\rho<1$, when the arrival rates are uniform. This improves on the best previously known scalings in two regimes: $O\big(n^{1.5}(1-\rho)^{-1} \log \frac{1}{1-\rho}\big)$ when $\Omega\big(n^{-1.5}\big) \le 1-\rho \le O\big(n^{-1}\big)$ and $O\big(\frac{n\log n}{(1-\rho)^2}\big)$ when $1-\rho \geq \Omega(n^{-1})$. A key ingredient in our method is a tight characterization of the largest k-factor of a random bipartite multigraph, which may be of independent interest.