The 2011 policy pivot of the German government, from extending nuclear power plants terms to securing their shutdown for 2022, cannot be explained without looking at how the German political discourse network shifted in the months following Fukushima. This paper seeks to model and identify mechanisms that help explain how the two-mode network of political actors’ support for claims developed. We identify possible mechanisms to explain discourse dynamics from literature on political discourse and discourse networks, and extend homophily mechanisms to two-mode networks as “tertius” effects. We then introduce and employ a multimodal extension of dynamic network actor models to answer two questions key to how the discourse has evolved: which actors support claims more frequently and which claims they support. Our results indicate that mechanisms vary according to the discursive phase, but that powerful actors participate in the discourse more often, and actors tend to support claims that have already found support by cross-party coalitions. These are the two most prominent mechanisms that help to explain the dramatic nuclear policy change in Germany after Fukushima.

We present a reflection principle for a wide class of symmetric random motions with finite velocities. We propose a deterministic argument which is then applied to trajectories of stochastic processes. In the case of symmetric correlated random walks and the symmetric telegraph process, we provide a probabilistic result recalling the classical reflection principle for Brownian motion, but where the initial velocity has a crucial role. In the case of the telegraph process we also present some consequences which lead to further reflection-type characteristics of the motion.

Tree trace reconstruction aims to learn the binary node labels of a tree, given independent samples of the tree passed through an appropriately defined deletion channel. In recent work, Davies, Rácz, and Rashtchian [10] used combinatorial methods to show that $\exp({\mathrm{O}} (k \log_{k} n))$ samples suffice to reconstruct a complete k-ary tree with n nodes with high probability. We provide an alternative proof of this result, which allows us to generalize it to a broader class of tree topologies and deletion models. In our proofs we introduce the notion of a subtrace, which enables us to connect with and generalize recent mean-based complex analytic algorithms for string trace reconstruction.

Let $G=(V,E)$ be a countable graph. The Bunkbed graph of $G$ is the product graph $G \times K_2$, which has vertex set $V\times \{0,1\}$ with “horizontal” edges inherited from $G$ and additional “vertical” edges connecting $(w,0)$ and $(w,1)$ for each $w \in V$. Kasteleyn’s Bunkbed conjecture states that for each $u,v \in V$ and $p\in [0,1]$, the vertex $(u,0)$ is at least as likely to be connected to $(v,0)$ as to $(v,1)$ under Bernoulli-$p$ bond percolation on the bunkbed graph. We prove that the conjecture holds in the $p \uparrow 1$ limit in the sense that for each finite graph $G$ there exists $\varepsilon (G)\gt 0$ such that the bunkbed conjecture holds for $p \geqslant 1-\varepsilon (G)$.

Streptococcus pneumoniae (S. pneumoniae) is one of the most common community-associated pathogens responsible for pneumonia in children. This retrospective study aimed to investigate the molecular characteristics of S. pneumoniae isolated from children with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) under 5 years in Chengdu, China. Molecular characteristics of S. pneumoniae included serotype and virulence factor performed by using PCR method and sequence types (STs) determined by sequencing seven housekeeping genes. In addition, the potential relationships between molecular characteristics were depicted by minimum spanning tree and correspondence analysis. The prevailing serotypes were 19F (18.52%), 6B (17.59%), 19A (13.89%), 6A (6.48%) and 23F (5.56%) among 108 isolates. The overall coverage rates of 7-valent, 10-valent, 13-valent, 15-valent and 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) were 47.32, 48.1, 75, 75 and 78.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, the coverage rates of PCV13 among the isolates from CAP patients aged <1 year were high up to 84.2%. MLST analysis results showed that there were 56 different STs identified, of which the dominant STs were ST271 (22.22%) and ST320 (12.04%). Five international clones among STs were observed, including Spain23F‐1, Spain6B‐2, Taiwan19F‐14, Netherlands3‐31 and Denmark14‐32. Additionally, most of the isolates carried ply, psaA, nanA, pavA, piaA and CC271 isolates expressed more of nanA than non-CC271 isolates. Moreover, there were strong relevant relationships among STs, serotypes and virulence factors. Considering serotypes and virulence factors together can be used as the foundation for the formulation of vaccine strategy.

In Sudan, data on varicella infections are lacking and the vaccine is currently not in use. The aim of this study was to investigate previous exposure to varicella zoster virus (VZV) among children and adults from the general population and among health-care workers (HCWs) in Khartoum. Dried blood spot samples collected between 2015 and 2016 from 294 children aged 1‒15 years, 153 adult volunteers and 241 HCWs were investigated for the presence of VZV IgG antibodies using ELISA. The overall seroprevalence of VZV IgG antibodies among the investigated cohorts was 50.4%, ranging between 14.3% in children and 79.3% in HCWs. Seropositivity increased with age among children and HCWs (P ⩽ 0.05). A relatively low seropositivity (64.7%) was observed among young adults and HCWs, suggesting that a high proportion of Sudanese adults remain susceptible. In hospital settings, this result implies a risk of nosocomial infection involving both HCWs and vulnerable patients. The results of this first VZV study in Sudan suggest active virus circulation in different age groups. Especially HCWs at the start of their career might benefit from vaccination, not only to save themselves from herpes zoster and its sequelae, but also to indirectly protect vulnerable patients.

We assessed patterns of enteric infections caused by 14 pathogens, in a longitudinal cohort study of sequelae in British Columbia (BC) Canada, 2005–2014. Our population cohort of 5.8 million individuals was followed for an average of 7.5 years/person; during this time, 40 523 individuals experienced 42 308 incident laboratory-confirmed, provincially reported enteric infections (96.4 incident infections per 100 000 person-years). Most individuals (38 882/40 523; 96%) had only one, but 4% had multiple concurrent infections or more than one infection across the study. Among individuals with more than one infection, the pathogens and combinations occurring most frequently per individual matched the pathogens occurring most frequently in the BC population. An additional 298 557 new fee-for-service physician visits and hospitalisations for enteric infections, that did not coincide with a reported enteric infection, also occurred, and some may be potentially unreported enteric infections. Our findings demonstrate that sequelae risk analyses should explore the possible impacts of multiple infections, and that estimating risk for individuals who may have had a potentially unreported enteric infection is warranted.

A cross-sectional and retrospective study of patients with Mycobacterium spp. in a Portuguese tertiary hospital, in 2009 and 2019, was performed to understand better the rise in isolations of nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM). The number of patients with positive samples for Mycobacterium spp. grew from 56 in 2009 to 83 in 2019. The proportion of NTM rose from 39.3% to 49.4% (P = 0.240), with Mycobacterium avium complex being more frequent in 2009 and Mycobacterium gordonae in 2019, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex decreased from 60.7% to 50.6%. Higher age was associated with NTM in both years, and pulmonary disease and immunosuppression were associated with NTM in 2019 (P < 0.05), with weak to moderate correlation (V = 0.231–0.343). The overall rise of NTM, allied to their known capacity to resist antimicrobial therapy, alerts clinicians to the importance of recognising potential risk factors for infection and improving future prevention strategies.

Avian influenza (AI) is an important disease that has significant implications for animal and human health. High pathogenicity AI (HPAI) has emerged in consecutive seasons within the UK to cause the largest outbreaks recorded. Statutory measures to control outbreaks of AI virus (AIV) at poultry farms involve disposal of all birds on infected premises. Understanding of the timing of incursions into the UK could facilitate decisions on improved responses. During the autumnal migration and wintering period (autumn 2019– spring 2020), three active sampling approaches were trialled for wild bird species considered likely to be involved in captive AI outbreaks with retrospective laboratory testing undertaken to define the presence of AIV.

Faecal sampling of birds (n = 594) caught during routine and responsive mist net sampling failed to detect AIV. Cloacal sampling of hunter-harvested waterfowl (n = 146) detected seven positive samples from three species with the earliest detection on the 17 October 2020. Statutory sampling first detected AIV in wild and captive birds on 3 November 2020. We conclude that hunter sourced sampling of waterfowl presents an opportunity to detect AI within the UK in advance of outbreaks on poultry farms and allow for early intervention measures to protect the national poultry flock.

Previous studies have suggested that a hospital patient's risk of developing healthcare facility-onset (HCFO) Clostridioides difficile infections (CDIs) increases with the number of concurrent spatially proximate patients with CDI, termed CDI pressure. However, these studies were performed either in a single institution or in a single state with a very coarse measure of concurrence. We conducted a retrospective case-control study involving over 17.5 million inpatient visits across 700 hospitals in eight US states. We built a weighted, directed network connecting overlapping inpatient visits to measure facility-level CDI pressure. We then matched HCFO-CDIs with non-CDI controls on facility, comorbidities and demographics and performed a conditional logistic regression to determine the odds of developing HCFO-CDI given the number of coincident patient visits with CDI. On average, cases' visits coincided with 9.2 CDI cases, which for an individual with an average length of stay corresponded to an estimated 17.7% (95% CI 12.9–22.7%) increase in the odds of acquiring HCFO-CDI compared to an inpatient visit without concurrent CDI cases or fully isolated from both direct and indirect risks from concurrent CDI cases. These results suggest that, either directly or indirectly, hospital patients with CDI lead to CDIs in non-infected patients with temporally overlapping visits.

In June 2019 the Health Protection Team in Yorkshire and Humber, England, was notified of cases of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection in staff at a secondary school. Investigation revealed that an earlier case worked as a food handler in the school kitchen. Indirect transmission through food from the canteen was considered the most likely route of transmission. Cases were described according to setting of exposure. Oral fluid was obtained from students for serological testing. Environmental investigations were undertaken at settings where food handling was considered a potential transmission risk. Thirty-three confirmed cases were linked to the outbreak. All of those tested (n = 31) shared the same sequence with a HAV IB genotype. The first three cases were a household cluster and included the index case for the school. A further 19 cases (16 students, 3 staff) were associated with the school and consistent with indirect exposure to the food handler. One late onset case could not be ruled out as a secondary case within the school and resulted in vaccination of the school population. Five cases were linked to a bakery where a case from the initial household cluster worked as a food server. No concerns about hygiene standards were noted at either the school or the bakery. Oral fluid samples taken at the time of vaccination from asymptomatic students (n = 219, 11–16 years-old) showed no evidence of recent or current infection. This outbreak included household and foodborne transmission but limited (and possibly zero) person-to-person transmission among secondary school students. Where adequate hygiene exists, secondary transmission within older students may not occur.

This article describes the limiting distribution of the extremes of observations that arrive in clusters. We start by studying the tail behaviour of an individual cluster, and then we apply the developed theory to determine the limiting distribution of $\max\{X_j\,:\, j=0,\ldots, K(t)\}$, where K(t) is the number of independent and identically distributed observations $(X_j)$ arriving up to the time t according to a general marked renewal cluster process. The results are illustrated in the context of some commonly used Poisson cluster models such as the marked Hawkes process.

An old conjecture of Erdős and McKay states that if all homogeneous sets in an $n$-vertex graph are of order $O(\!\log n)$ then the graph contains induced subgraphs of each size from $\{0,1,\ldots, \Omega \big(n^2\big)\}$. We prove a bipartite analogue of the conjecture: if all balanced homogeneous sets in an $n \times n$ bipartite graph are of order $O(\!\log n)$, then the graph contains induced subgraphs of each size from $\{0,1,\ldots, \Omega \big(n^2\big)\}$.

Gambling marketing is frequently visible in the United Kingdom, especially around the national sport, soccer. Previous research has documented the frequency with which gambling marketing logos can be seen in domestic club soccer, and also the frequency of television advertising around international tournaments. The present research investigates the frequency and content of television advertising during the men’s 2020 Euro soccer tournament, a high-profile tournament shown since the industry’s voluntary “whistle-to-whistle ban” on gambling advertising came into effect. Overall, 113 gambling adverts were recorded (4.5 adverts per relevant match). Financial inducements were the most frequently shown category (56.6%), followed by adverts raising awareness of a given operator’s brand (19.5%), adverts featuring the odds on specific complex bets (18.6%), and adverts promoting safer gambling (5.3%). Adverts featured a range of safer gambling messages, with the “when the fun stops, stop” message featuring in 56.6% of adverts. This research indicates that gambling advertising remains a frequent part of the experience of watching live televised soccer in the UK, and shows how the content of this advertising was comparable to what has been seen in the previous literature.