People with opioid use disorder (OUD) have substantially higher standardised mortality rates compared with the general population. However, lack of individualised prognostic information presents challenges in personalisation of addiction treatment delivery.

To develop and validate the first prognostic models to estimate 6-month all-cause and drug-related mortality risk for people diagnosed with OUD using indicators recorded at baseline assessment in addiction services in England.

Thirteen candidate prognostic variables, including sociodemographic, injecting status and health and mental health factors, were identified from nationally linked addiction treatment, hospital admission and death records from 1 April 2013 to 1 April 2022. Multivariable Cox regression models were developed with a fractional polynomial approach for continuous variables, and missing data were addressed using multiple imputation by chained equations. Validation was undertaken using bootstrapping methods. Discrimination was assessed using Harrel’s C and D statistics alongside examination of observed-to-predicted event rates and calibration curve slopes.

Data were available for 236 064 people with OUD, with 2427 deaths due to any cause, including 1289 due to drug-related causes. Both final models demonstrated good optimism-adjusted discrimination and calibration, with all-cause and drug-related models, respectively, demonstrating Harrell’s C statistics of 0.73 (95% CI 0.71–0.75) and 0.74 (95% CI 0.72–0.76), D-statistics of 1.01 (95% CI 0.95–1.08) and 1.07 (95% CI 0.98–1.16) and calibration slopes of 1.01 (95% CI 0.95–1.08) and 1.01 (95% CI 0.94–1.10).

We developed and internally validated Roberts’ OUD mortality risk, with the first models to accurately quantify individualised absolute 6-month mortality risks in people with OUD presenting to addiction services. Independent validation is warranted to ensure these models have the optimal utility to assist wider future policy, commissioning and clinical decision-making.

Although dementia is a terminal condition, palliation can be a challenge for clinical services. As dementia progresses, people frequently develop behavioural and psychological symptoms, sometimes so severe they require care in specialist dementia mental health wards. Although these are often a marker of late disease, there has been little research on the mortality of people admitted to these wards.

We sought to describe the mortality of this group, both on-ward and after discharge, and to investigate clinical features predicting 1-year mortality.

First, we conducted a retrospective analysis of 576 people with dementia admitted to the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust dementia wards over an 8-year period. We attempted to identify predictors of mortality and build predictive machine learning models. To investigate deaths occurring during admission, we conducted a second analysis as a retrospective service evaluation involving mental health wards for people with dementia at four NHS trusts, including 1976 admissions over 7 years.

Survival following admission showed high variability, with a median of 1201 days (3.3 years). We were not able to accurately predict those at high risk of death from clinical data. We found that on-ward mortality remains rare but had increased from 3 deaths per year in 2013 to 13 in 2019.

We suggest that arrangements to ensure effective palliation are available on all such wards. It is not clear where discussions around end-of-life care are best placed in the dementia pathway, but we suggest it should be considered at admission.

To evaluate the outcomes of patients with single ventricle physiology supported with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as a bridge to first-stage palliation.

This was a retrospective registry-based study. Data from the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization registry were used to identify single ventricle physiology patients supported with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation prior to palliation from 2016 to 2021. Descriptive statistics and multivariate analyses for associations with mortality were conducted.

Primary outcome was death before hospital discharge. Patient characteristics including demographics and associated complications were evaluated as secondary outcomes. Sixty-five patients met inclusion criteria. Survival to discharge was 42%. Twenty-four (37%) patients died while on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. There was no significant difference in demographics between survivors and non-survivors. Non-survivors had a significantly longer median duration on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation compared to survivors, 99-hrs [IQR (Interquartile Range), 160, 300] vs. 59-hrs [43, 124] (p<0.001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated extracorporeal membrane oxygenation duration (adjusted-OR [Odds Ratio] 1.01, 95% CI [Confidence Interval] 0.98, 0.99; p = 0.03) and requiring renal replacement therapy (42% vs. 19%; p = 0.04) were associated with mortality prior to discharge.

Clinicians managing decompensated patients with single ventricle physiology may consider extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as a bridge to palliation. Survival to discharge was 42%. Evidence of renal injury and longer extracorporeal membrane oxygenation durations were associated with mortality. These data may be used to guide providers and to counsel families. However, more data are needed to refine indications and assess associations related to outcomes and decision-making.

To examine the potential indirect effect of meal frequency on mortality via obesity indices.

Prospective cohort study

Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study.

This cohort study involved 148 438 South Korean adults aged 40 years and older.

Meal frequency at the baseline survey was assessed using a validated FFQ. Outcomes included all-cause mortality, cancer mortality and CVD mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression models were employed to examine the relationship between meal frequency and the risk of mortality. Mediation analyses were performed with changes in obesity indices (BMI and weight circumference (WC)) as mediators. In comparison to the three-time group, the once-per-day and four-times-per-day groups had a higher risk for all-cause mortality. The irregular frequency group had a higher risk for CVD mortality. Both once-per-day and four-times-per-day groups exhibited higher risks for cancer mortality. The effect of meal frequency on all-cause mortality was partially mediated by WC. For specific-cause mortality, similar mediation effects were found.

The data suggests that three meals per day have a lower mortality and longer life expectancy compared with other meal frequencies. Increased waist circumference partially mediates this effect. These findings support the implementation of a strategy that addresses meal frequency and weight reduction together.

Due to the high postoperative mortality, tools for an adaequate risk stratification are important to identify high-risk patients undergoing the Norwood procedure. As a marker of ventricular wall stress, NT-proBNP might be of particular interest in these children.

This study evaluated whether NT-proBNP’s age-adjusted z-score (“zlog-NT-proBNP”) predicts outcomes after stage I Norwood procedure.

Patients who underwent the Norwood procedure between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2022, with perioperative NT-proBNP measurements available were enrolled. Since reference intervals of NT-proBNP are highly age-dependent, age-adjusted zlog-NT-proBNP was used. Serial zlog-NT-proBNP values were analysed to predict the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events after the Norwood procedure. Major adverse cardiovascular events was defined as death, resuscitation, or mechanical circulatory support. Secondary endpoints were re-operation and re-intervention for shunt.

A total of 139 patients underwent the Norwood procedure and had at least one NT-proBNP measurement available. Preoperative zlog-NT-proBNP measurements (median 3.7, interquartile range 3.1–4.19) showed no association with the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events or mortality. Zlog-NT-proBNP early after ICU admission (3.2, interquartile range 2.4–3.8) was predictive of mortality but showed no association with the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events. Zlog-NT-proBNP before ICU discharge (3.2, interquartile range 2.8–3.8) was significantly associated with the occurrence of both major adverse cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.83, 95% confidence interval 1.25–2.67, P = 0.002) and death (hazard ratio 2.1, 95% CI 1.4–3.2, P < 0.001).

High zlog-NT-proBNP levels after the Norwood surgery were strongly associated with the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events and death. Therefore, zlog-NT-proBNP has the potential to identify high-risk patients before life-threatening complications occur.

The sutureless repair technique has been favoured due to its purported reduction in post-operative pulmonary venous obstruction rates. This study aims to compare the outcomes of conventional versus sutureless repair techniques in Total Anomalous Pulmonary Venous Drainage.

In this retrospective single-centre analysis (2012–2022), we evaluated children who underwent conventional or sutureless repair for isolated total anomalous pulmonary venous drainage, excluding complex cardiac anomalies and incomplete data. Patients were categorised into conventional (Group C, n = 58) and sutureless (Group S, n = 41) groups. Primary outcomes included mortality, morbidity, and post-operative complications. Statistical analysis included Mann–Whitney U, chi-square, and Fisher’s exact tests where appropriate.

Supracardiac type predominated in both groups (53.4% in Group C and 70.7% in Group S), with higher cardiac type frequency in Group C (24.1% versus 2.4%, p = 0.016). Early complications occurred in 58.5% versus 53.4% of cases in Groups S and C, respectively (p = 0.767). The mortality rate (17.2% versus 14.6%, p = 0.944) and post-operative pulmonary venous obstruction (21.2% versus 19.0%, p = 0.809) were higher in Group C, though not significantly. Mean cardiopulmonary bypass times were comparable between groups (105 versus 89 minutes, p = 0.424).

In this comprehensive analysis of paediatric Total Anomalous Pulmonary Venous Drainage repair, both conventional and sutureless techniques demonstrated comparable safety profiles and clinical outcomes. These findings suggest that surgical approach selection should be individualised based on patient characteristics and surgeon expertise. Further prospective studies with larger cohorts are needed to validate these observations.