The extremes of a univariate Markov chain with regularly varying stationary marginal distribution and asymptotically linear behavior are known to exhibit a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. In this paper we extend this fact to Markov chains with multivariate regularly varying marginal distributions in R d . We analyze both the forward and the backward tail process and show that they mutually determine each other through a kind of adjoint relation. In a broader setting, we will show that even for non-Markovian underlying processes a Markovian forward tail chain always implies that the backward tail chain is also Markovian. We analyze the resulting class of limiting processes in detail. Applications of the theory yield the asymptotic distribution of both the past and the future of univariate and multivariate stochastic difference equations conditioned on an extreme event.

We study a type of nonnormal small jump approximation of infinitely divisible distributions. By incorporating compound Poisson, gamma, and normal distributions, the approximation has a higher order of cumulant matching than its normal counterpart, and, hence, in many cases a higher rate of approximation error decay as the cutoff for the jump size tends to 0. The parameters of the approximation are easy to fix, and its random sampling has the same order of computational complexity as the normal approximation. An error bound of the approximation in terms of the total variation distance is derived. Simulations empirically show that the nonnormal approximation can have a significantly smaller error than its normal counterpart.

Financial data are as a rule asymmetric, although most econometric models are symmetric. This applies also to continuous-time models for high-frequency and irregularly spaced data. We discuss some asymmetric versions of the continuous-time GARCH model, concentrating then on the GJR-COGARCH model. We calculate higher-order moments and extend the first-jump approximation. These results are prerequisites for moment estimation and pseudo maximum likelihood estimation of the GJR-COGARCH model parameters, respectively, which we derive in detail.

We consider a continuum percolation model consisting of two types of nodes, namely legitimate and eavesdropper nodes, distributed according to independent Poisson point processes in R 2 of intensities λ and λE , respectively. A directed edge from one legitimate node A to another legitimate node B exists provided that the strength of the signal transmitted from node A that is received at node B is higher than that received at any eavesdropper node. The strength of the signal received at a node from a legitimate node depends not only on the distance between these nodes, but also on the location of the other legitimate nodes and an interference suppression parameter γ. The graph is said to percolate when there exists an infinitely connected component. We show that for any finite intensity λE of eavesdropper nodes, there exists a critical intensity λc < ∞ such that for all λ > λc the graph percolates for sufficiently small values of the interference parameter. Furthermore, for the subcritical regime, we show that there exists a λ0 such that for all λ < λ0 ≤ λc a suitable graph defined over eavesdropper node connections percolates that precludes percolation in the graphs formed by the legitimate nodes.

In this paper we solve the hedge fund manager's optimization problem in a model that allows for investors to enter and leave the fund over time depending on its performance. The manager's payoff at the end of the year will then depend not just on the terminal value of the fund level, but also on the lowest and the highest value reached over that time. We establish equivalence to an optimal stopping problem for Brownian motion; by approximating this problem with the corresponding optimal stopping problem for a random walk we are led to a simple and efficient numerical scheme to find the solution, which we then illustrate with some examples.

The purpose of the paper is to introduce a novel “splitting” procedure which can be helpful in the derivation of explicit formulas for various Bellman functions. As an illustration, we study the action of the dyadic maximal operator on $L^{p}$. The associated Bellman function $\mathfrak{B}_{p}$, introduced by Nazarov and Treil, was found explicitly by Melas with the use of combinatorial properties of the maximal operator, and was later rediscovered by Slavin, Stokolos and Vasyunin with the use of the corresponding Monge–Ampère partial differential equation. Our new argument enables an alternative simple derivation of $\mathfrak{B}_{p}$.

We provide asymptotics for the range $R_{n}$ of a random walk on the $d$-dimensional lattice indexed by a random tree with $n$ vertices. Using Kingman’s subadditive ergodic theorem, we prove under general assumptions that $n^{-1}R_{n}$ converges to a constant, and we give conditions ensuring that the limiting constant is strictly positive. On the other hand, in dimension $4$, and in the case of a symmetric random walk with exponential moments, we prove that $R_{n}$ grows like $n/\!\log n$. We apply our results to asymptotics for the range of a branching random walk when the initial size of the population tends to infinity.

In this article we show the asymptotics of distribution and moments of the size X n of the minimal clade of a randomly chosen individual in a Bolthausen-Sznitman n-coalescent for n → ∞. The Bolthausen-Sznitman n-coalescent is a Markov process taking states in the set of partitions of {1, …, n}, where 1, …, n are referred to as individuals. The minimal clade of an individual is the equivalence class the individual is in at the time of the first coalescence event this individual participates in. We also provide exact formulae for the distribution of X n . The main tool used is the connection of the Bolthausen-Sznitman n-coalescent with random recursive trees introduced by Goldschmidt and Martin (2005). With it, we show that X n - 1 is distributed as the size of a uniformly chosen table in a standard Chinese restaurant process with n - 1 customers.

In this paper we consider some nonstandard renewal risk models with some dependent claim sizes and stochastic return, where an insurance company is allowed to invest her/his wealth in financial assets, and the price process of the investment portfolio is described as a geometric Lévy process. When the claim size distribution belongs to some classes of heavy-tailed distributions and a constraint is imposed on the Lévy process in terms of its Laplace exponent, we obtain some asymptotic formulae for the tail probability of discounted aggregate claims and ruin probabilities holding uniformly for some finite or infinite time horizons.

In this note we present a bound of the optimal maximum probability for the multiplicative odds theorem of optimal stopping theory. We deal with an optimal stopping problem that maximizes the probability of stopping on any of the last m successes of a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials of length N, where m and N are predetermined integers satisfying 1 ≤ m < N. This problem is an extension of Bruss' (2000) odds problem. In a previous work, Tamaki (2010) derived an optimal stopping rule. We present a lower bound of the optimal probability. Interestingly, our lower bound is attained using a variation of the well-known secretary problem, which is a special case of the odds problem.

In this paper we propose a new modelling framework for electricity futures markets based on so-called ambit fields. The new model can capture many of the stylised facts observed in electricity futures and is highly analytically tractable. We discuss martingale conditions, option pricing, and change of measure within the new model class. Also, we study the corresponding model for the spot price, which is implied by the new futures model, and show that, under certain regularity conditions, the implied spot price can be represented in law as a volatility modulated Volterra process.

In this paper we propose a stochastic process, which is a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process with Hawkes jumps. It can be seen as a generalization of the classical Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process and the classical Hawkes process with exponential exciting function. Our model is a special case of the affine point processes. We obtain Laplace transforms and limit theorems, including the law of large numbers, central limit theorems, and large deviations.

Define a γ-reflected process W γ(t) = Y H (t) - γinfs∈[0,t] Y H (s), t ≥ 0, with input process {Y H (t), t ≥ 0}, which is a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index H ∈ (0, 1) and a negative linear trend. In risk theory R γ(u) = u - W γ(t), t ≥ 0, is referred to as the risk process with tax payments of a loss-carry-forward type. For various risk processes, numerous results are known for the approximation of the first and last passage times to 0 (ruin times) when the initial reserve u goes to ∞. In this paper we show that, for the γ-reflected process, the conditional (standardized) first and last passage times are jointly asymptotically Gaussian and completely dependent. An important contribution of this paper is that it links ruin problems with extremes of nonhomogeneous Gaussian random fields defined by Y H , which we also investigate.

In ruin theory, the conjecture given in De Vylder and Goovaerts (2000) is an open problem about the comparison of the finite time ruin probability in a homogeneous risk model and the corresponding ruin probability evaluated in the associated model with equalized claim amounts. In this paper we consider a weaker version of the conjecture and show that the integrals of the ruin probabilities with respect to the initial risk reserve are uniformly comparable.

We consider a class of optimal stopping problems involving both the running maximum as well as the prevailing state of a linear diffusion. Instead of tackling the problem directly via the standard free boundary approach, we take an alternative route and present a parameterized family of standard stopping problems of the underlying diffusion. We apply this family to delineate circumstances under which the original problem admits a unique, well-defined solution. We then develop a discretized approach resulting in a numerical algorithm for solving the considered class of stopping problems. We illustrate the use of the algorithm in both a geometric Brownian motion and a mean reverting diffusion setting.

We study a renewal risk model in which the surplus process of the insurance company is modelled by a compound fractional Poisson process. We establish the long-range dependence property of this nonstationary process. Some results for ruin probabilities are presented under various assumptions on the distribution of the claim sizes.

We consider a model for a one-sided limit order book proposed by Lakner, Reed and Stoikov (2013). We show that it can be coupled with a branching random walk and use this coupling to answer a nontrivial question about the long-term behavior of the price. The coupling relies on a classical idea of enriching the state space by artificially creating a filiation, in this context between orders of the book, which we believe has the potential of being useful for a broader class of models.

We obtain the long-time behaviour to the variance of the distribution process associated with the solution of the telegraph equation. To this end, we use a version of the Karamata-Feller Tauberian theorem.

Suppose that red and blue points occur in R d according to two simple point processes with finite intensities λR and λB , respectively. Furthermore, let ν and μ be two probability distributions on the strictly positive integers with means ν̅ and μ̅, respectively. Assign independently a random number of stubs (half-edges) to each red (blue) point with law ν (μ). We are interested in translation-invariant schemes for matching stubs between points of different colors in order to obtain random bipartite graphs in which each point has a prescribed degree distribution with law ν or μ depending on its color. For a large class of point processes, we show that such translation-invariant schemes matching almost surely all stubs are possible if and only if λR ν̅ = λB μ̅, including the case when ν̅ = μ̅ = ∞ so that both sides are infinite. Furthermore, we study a particular scheme based on the Gale-Shapley stable marriage problem. For this scheme, we give sufficient conditions on ν and μ for the presence and absence of infinite components. These results are two-color versions of those obtained by Deijfen, Holroyd and Häggström.

Stochastic geometry models for wireless communication networks have recently attracted much attention. This is because the performance of such networks critically depends on the spatial configuration of wireless nodes and the irregularity of the node configuration in a real network can be captured by a spatial point process. However, most analysis of such stochastic geometry models for wireless networks assumes, owing to its tractability, that the wireless nodes are deployed according to homogeneous Poisson point processes. This means that the wireless nodes are located independently of each other and their spatial correlation is ignored. In this work we propose a stochastic geometry model of cellular networks such that the wireless base stations are deployed according to the Ginibre point process. The Ginibre point process is one of the determinantal point processes and accounts for the repulsion between the base stations. For the proposed model, we derive a computable representation for the coverage probability—the probability that the signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINR) for a mobile user achieves a target threshold. To capture its qualitative property, we further investigate the asymptotics of the coverage probability as the SINR threshold becomes large in a special case. We also present the results of some numerical experiments.