The bacterium Neisseria meningitidis causes life-threatening disease worldwide, typically with a clinical presentation of sepsis or meningitis, but can be carried asymptomatically as part of the normal human oropharyngeal microbiota. The aim of this study was to examine N. meningitidis carriage with regard to prevalence, risk factors for carriage, distribution of meningococcal lineages and persistence of meningococcal carriage. Throat samples and data from a self-reported questionnaire were obtained from 2744 university students (median age: 23 years) at a university in Sweden on four occasions during a 12-month period. Meningococcal isolates were characterised using whole-genome sequencing. The carriage rate among the students was 9.1% (319/3488; 95% CI 8.2–10.1). Factors associated with higher carriage rate were age ≤22 years, previous tonsillectomy, cigarette smoking, drinking alcohol and attending parties, pubs and clubs. Female gender and sharing a household with children aged 0–9 years were associated with lower carriage. The most frequent genogroups were capsule null locus (cnl), group B and group Y and the most commonly identified clonal complexes (cc) were cc198 and cc23. Persistent carriage with the same meningococcal strain for 12 months was observed in two students. Follow-up times exceeding 12 months are recommended for future studies investigating long-term carriage of N. meningitidis.

In this paper, we answer the multiple calls for systematic analysis of paradigms and subdisciplines in political science—the search for coherence within a fragmented field. We collected a large dataset of over seven hundred thousand writings in political science from Web of Science since 1946. We found at least two waves of political science development, from behaviorism to new institutionalism. Political science appeared to be more fragmented than literature suggests—instead of ten subdisciplines, we found 66 islands. However, despite fragmentation, there is also a tendency for integration in contemporary political science, as revealed by co-existence of several paradigms and coherent and interconnected topics of the “canon of political science,” as revealed by the core-periphery structure of topic networks. This was the first large-scale investigation of the entire political science field, possibly due to newly developed methods of bibliometric network analysis: temporal bibliometric analysis and island methods of clustering. Methodological contribution of this work to network science is evaluation of islands method of network clustering against a hierarchical cluster analysis for its ability to remove misleading information, allowing for a more meaningful clustering of large weighted networks.

We introduce a broad class of multi-hooking networks, wherein multiple copies of a seed are hooked at each step at random locations, and the number of copies follows a predetermined building sequence of numbers. We analyze the degree profile in random multi-hooking networks by tracking two kinds of node degrees—the local average degree of a specific node over time and the global overall average degree in the graph. The former experiences phases and the latter is invariant with respect to the type of building sequence and is somewhat similar to the average degree in the initial seed. We also discuss the expected number of nodes of the smallest degree. Additionally, we study distances in the network through the lens of the average total path length, the average depth of a node, the eccentricity of a node, and the diameter of the graph.

While the incidence of infections with the human immunodeficiency virus largely remained unchanged in Germany, an increase of other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) was observed. The aim was to analyse the effectiveness of our sexual education lecture for students in improving the awareness, knowledge and prevention of STIs. We conducted a cross-sectional survey after students had attended our extra-curricular lecture at the Department of Dermatology of the Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Germany (LMU). We compared the data with a previously performed study in which the same survey was carried out before the lecture had started. A total of 5866 questionnaires were included in the analysis. After attending the lecture significantly more students were aware of STIs (syphilis: 36.8% (before) vs. 63.5% (after); chlamydia: 30.5% vs. 49.3%; gonorrhoea: 22.4% vs. 38.2%; human papillomaviruses (HPV): 17.7% vs. 30.2%), the transmission pathways of STIs (oral: 36.6% vs. 82.6%; vaginal: 81.8% vs. 97.3%; anal: 42.8% vs. 94.0%; penile: 68.7% vs. 92.1%), knew that the HPV vaccination is directed against a virus (36.8% vs. 56.9%) and were interested in receiving a vaccination (57.7% vs. 78.8%). This study demonstrates the positive educative effects of our lecture for awareness and improved knowledge of STIs. To satisfy the need for a comprehensive sexual education, a combination of school and health facility-based programmes should be implemented as one single lecture cannot convey the entire information about STIs.

The temperature of maximum pyrolysis yield (known as Tmax) can be used to determine the level of thermal alteration in sedimentary organic matter; higher Tmax values represent higher thermal alteration. Tmax is commonly measured on petroleum source rocks or similar sediments with high organic carbon contents. It would be desirable to measure the Tmax of volcanic sediments because they can have complex patterns of thermal alteration. However, volcanic sediments often have low total organic carbon contents and consequently are susceptible to analytical interferences. Despite this, it can be shown that meaningful Tmax measurements can still be made in sediment with organic carbon contents as low as 0.2% and that interference caused by bitumen or ionizable salts can be mitigated by solvent extraction and rinsing with water. Thus, it is reasonable to use temperature programmed pyrolysis to assess levels of thermal alteration in even low total organic carbon volcanoclastic sediments.

Barriers to suicide cluster detection and monitoring include requiring advanced software and statistical knowledge. We tested face validity of a simple method using readily accessible household software, Excel 3D Maps, to identify suicide clusters in this county, years 2014–2019. For spatial and temporal clusters, respectively, we defined meaningful thresholds of suicide density as 1.39/km2 and 33.9/yearly quarter, defined as the 95th percentile of normal logarithmic and normal scale distributions of suicide density per area in each ZIP Code Tabulated Area and 24 yearly quarters from all years. We generated heat maps showing suicide densities per 2.5 km viewing diameter. We generated a one-dimensional temporal map of 3-month meaningful cluster(s). We identified 21 total population spatial clusters and one temporal cluster. For greater accessibility, we propose an alternative method to traditional scan statistics using Excel 3D Maps potentially broadly advantageous in detecting, monitoring, and intervening at suicide clusters.

This paper addresses the asymptotic analysis of sojourn functionals of spatiotemporal Gaussian random fields with long-range dependence (LRD) in time, also known as long memory. Specifically, reduction theorems are derived for local functionals of nonlinear transformation of such fields, with Hermite rank $m\geq 1,$ under general covariance structures. These results are proven to hold, in particular, for a family of nonseparable covariance structures belonging to the Gneiting class. For $m=2,$ under separability of the spatiotemporal covariance function in space and time, the properly normalized Minkowski functional, involving the modulus of a Gaussian random field, converges in distribution to the Rosenblatt-type limiting distribution for a suitable range of values of the long-memory parameter.

Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) infection is a lifelong infection that is acquired primarily orally and during childhood. We aimed to characterise HSV-1 epidemiology in Australia and New Zealand. HSV-1-related data as recent as 6 December 2021 were systematically reviewed, synthesised and reported, following PRISMA guidelines. Pooled mean seroprevalence and proportions of HSV-1 detection in genital ulcer disease (GUD) and in genital herpes were calculated using random-effects meta-analyses. Meta-regressions were also conducted. HSV-1 measures were retrieved from 21 eligible publications. Extracted HSV-1 measures included 13 overall seroprevalence measures (27 stratified) in Australia, four overall proportions of HSV-1 detection in clinically diagnosed GUD (four stratified) in Australia, and ten overall proportions of HSV-1 detection in laboratory-confirmed genital herpes (26 stratified) in Australia and New Zealand. Pooled mean seroprevalence among healthy adults in Australia was 84.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 74.3–93.1%). Pooled mean seroprevalence was 70.2% (95% CI 47.4–88.7%) among individuals <35 years of age and 86.9% (95% CI 79.3–93.0%) among individuals ≥35 years. Seroprevalence increased by 1.05-fold (95% CI 1.01–1.10) per year. Pooled mean proportion of HSV-1 detection in GUD was 8.2% (95% CI 0.4–22.9%). Pooled mean proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital herpes was 30.5% (95% CI 23.3–38.3%), and was highest in young individuals. Proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital herpes increased by 1.04-fold (95% CI 1.00–1.08) per year. Included studies showed heterogeneity, but 30% of the heterogeneity in seroprevalence and 42% of the heterogeneity in proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital herpes were explained in terms of epidemiological factors. HSV-1 seroprevalence is higher in Australia than in other Western countries. HSV-1 epidemiology in Australia and New Zealand appears to be transitioning towards less oral acquisition in childhood, but more genital acquisition among youth.

National disease surveillance systems are essential to a healthy pig industry but can be costly and logistically complex. In 2019, Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) piloted an abattoir disease surveillance system to assess for the presence of high impact pig diseases (HIPDs) using serological methods. The Lao Department of Livestock and Fisheries (DLF) identified Classical Swine Fever (CSF), Porcine Respiratory and Reproductive Syndrome (PRRS) and Brucella suis as HIPDs of interest for sero-surveillance purposes. Porcine serum samples (n = 597) were collected from six Lao abattoirs in March to December of 2019. Serological enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) methods were chosen for their high-throughput and relatively low-costs. The true seroprevalence for CSF and PRRS seropositivity were 68.7%, 95% CI (64.8–72.3) and 39.5%, 95% CI (35.7–43.5), respectively. The results demonstrated no evidence of Brucella spp. seroconversion. Lao breed pigs were less likely to be CSF seropositive (P < 0.05), whilst pigs slaughtered at <1 year of age were less likely to be PRRS seropositive (P < 0.01). The testing methods could not differentiate between seropositivity gained from vaccine or natural infection, and investigators were unable to obtain the vaccine status of the slaughtered pigs from the abattoirs. These results demonstrate that adequate sample sizes are possible from abattoir sero-surveillance and lifetime health traceability is necessary to understand HIPDs in Lao PDR.

We consider a dual risk model with constant expense rate and i.i.d. exponentially distributed gains $C_i$ ($i=1,2,\dots$) that arrive according to a renewal process with general interarrival times. We add to this classical dual risk model the proportional gain feature; that is, if the surplus process just before the ith arrival is at level u, then for $a>0$ the capital jumps up to the level $(1+a)u+C_i$. The ruin probability and the distribution of the time to ruin are determined. We furthermore identify the value of discounted cumulative dividend payments, for the case of a Poisson arrival process of proportional gains. In the dividend calculations, we also consider a random perturbation of our basic risk process modeled by an independent Brownian motion with drift.

Infection dynamics in vertebrates are driven by biological and ecological processes. For bats, population structure and reproductive cycles have major effects on RNA virus transmission. On Reunion Island, previous studies have shown that parturition of pregnant females and aggregation of juvenile Reunion free-tailed bats (Mormopterus francoismoutoui) are associated with major increase in the prevalence of bats shedding RNA viruses. The synchronicity of such shedding pulses, however, is yet to be assessed between viruses but also maternity colonies. Based on 3422 fresh faeces collected every 2–5 weeks during four consecutive birthing seasons, we report the prevalence of bats shedding astroviruses (AstVs), coronaviruses (CoVs) and paramyxoviruses (PMVs) in two maternity colonies on Reunion Island. We found that the proportion of bats shedding viruses is highly influenced by sampling collection periods, and therefore by the evolution of the population age structure. We highlight that virus shedding patterns are consistent among years and colonies for CoVs and to a lesser extent for PMVs, but not for AstVs. We also report that 1% of bats harbour co-infections, with two but not three of the viruses, and most co-infections were due to CoVs and PMVs.

Negative dependence of sequences of random variables is often an interesting characteristic of their distribution, as well as a useful tool for studying various asymptotic results, including central limit theorems, Poisson approximations, the rate of increase of the maximum, and more. In the study of probability models of tournaments, negative dependence of participants’ outcomes arises naturally, with application to various asymptotic results. In particular, the property of negative orthant dependence was proved in several articles for different tournament models, with a special proof for each model. In this note we unify these results by proving a stronger property, negative association, a generalization leading to a very simple proof. We also present a natural example of a knockout tournament where the scores are negatively orthant dependent but not negatively associated. The proof requires a new result on a preservation property of negative orthant dependence that is of independent interest.

Consider the coupon collector problem where each box of a brand of cereal contains a coupon and there are n different types of coupons. Suppose that the probability of a box containing a coupon of a specific type is $1/n$, and that we keep buying boxes until we collect at least m coupons of each type. For $k\geq m$ call a certain coupon a k-ton if we see it k times by the time we have seen m copies of all of the coupons. Here we determine the asymptotic distribution of the number of k-tons after we have collected m copies of each coupon for any k in a restricted range, given any fixed m. We also determine the asymptotic joint probability distribution over such values of k, and the total number of coupons collected.

In many complex practical optimization cases, the dominant characteristics of the problem are often not known prior. Therefore, there is a need to develop general solvers as it is not always possible to tailor a specialized approach to each application. The previously developed multilevel selection genetic algorithm (MLSGA) already shows good performance on a range of problems due to its diversity-first approach, which is rare among evolutionary algorithms. To increase the generality of its performance, this paper proposes utilization of multiple distinct evolutionary strategies simultaneously, similarly to algorithm selection, but with coevolutionary mechanisms between the subpopulations. This distinctive approach to coevolution provides less regular communication between subpopulations with competition between collectives rather than individuals. This encourages the collectives to act more independently creating a unique subregional search, leading to the development of coevolutionary MLSGA (cMLSGA). To test this methodology, nine genetic algorithms are selected to generate several variants of cMLSGA, which incorporates these approaches at the individual level. The mechanisms are tested on 100 different functions and benchmarked against the 9 state-of-the-art competitors to evaluate the generality of each approach. The results show that the diversity divergence in the principles of working of the selected coevolutionary approaches is more important than their individual performances. The proposed methodology has the most uniform performance on the divergent problem types, from across the tested state of the art, leading to an algorithm more likely to solve complex problems with limited knowledge about the search space, but is outperformed by more specialized solvers on simpler benchmarking studies.