Human wellbeing is the guiding goal of many public policies, yet its complexity often prevents present measurement and future projections of it. Here, using a global model and a wellbeing measure called Years of Good Life (YoGL), we show how climate change, economy, and social conditions together shape people's long-term wellbeing. We also introduce the ‘wellbeing cost of carbon' metric, which is similar to the social cost of carbon but measures the wellbeing loss due to carbon emissions instead of only economic loss. The results highlight that younger generations pay the highest price unless strong climate action is taken.

Human wellbeing is the ultimate end of sustainable development alongside planetary wellbeing. It relies on complex interactions between natural and social systems, including those between climate change, economic growth, and human mortality. Despite extensive analyses of individual climate impacts, their combined effects on long-term wellbeing are sparsely examined. Using a dynamic systems model of global climate, economy, environment, and society relationships and employing YoGL as an empirical wellbeing indicator, we present wellbeing projections in diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios, and calculate the loss of human wellbeing due to carbon emissions. In a climate-optimistic scenario, 20-year-old females and males gain 10.4 and 7.5 YoGL, respectively, on average by 2100, while a pessimistic scenario reduces it by 8.5 and 11.3 years. Physical health remains the most restraining driver of long-term human wellbeing, while indirect climate impacts on education and poverty also reduce it by a similar extent in a climate-pessimistic scenario. The younger generations bear a much higher wellbeing cost of carbon unless strong climate action is taken. This study offers a new quantitative, empirically grounded and integrated perspective on climate impacts on human wellbeing, expanding beyond economic damages and the social cost of carbon.

Climate choices today shape our future wellbeing: Strong action boosts ‘good life’ years, inaction takes it away.

Human actions are causing climate change, pollution, and the loss of biodiversity, making our planet less safe. To address these problems, solutions must be developed from current and future research, involving different scientific fields and respecting diverse knowledge systems. It is essential to engage with society, as the relationship between science and society drives progress. Studying coasts as complex systems requires input from the natural sciences, social sciences, and humanities.

In the coastal zone, the triple planetary crisis manifests as accelerating losses and changes and increasing challenges and risks for people and livelihoods. Acceptance of a future existential crisis compels the urgency of corrective action to cause an inverse positive societal response to bend the negative trajectories of loss and damage. The rate and extent of corrective societal action (policies, laws, practices, knowledge, etc.) should at least keep pace with the projected rate of loss and environmental degradation. This urgency and acceleration of action are major societal challenges, especially considering the overwhelming evidence of impacts. In this paper, we offer three propositions for accelerating urgent actions and fostering innovation in coastal research and management, focusing on emerging trends and foundational changes. Scientists need to (1) reflect on the performativity of their research and perceptions of neutrality in anticipating the future of coasts; (2) think and act equitably in local and global partnerships; and (3) improve their engagement and willingness to innovate with society. This is not a call for linear or incremental change, but a call for the radical. The relationship between society and science drives progress and shapes our collective future.

Human actions drive climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss, threatening our planet. To address these crises, we need solutions that blend current and future research, span multiple scientific fields, and respect diverse knowledge systems. Engaging with society is key. The bond between human society and science shapes our future. Coastal studies must integrate natural sciences, social sciences, and humanities.

Continued global environmental degradation generates risks to human health, for example, through air pollution, disease, and food insecurity. This study focuses on these three types of health impact and explores what drives these risks. The risks can arise from diverse causes including political, economic, social, technological, legal/regulatory, and environmental factors. We assembled diverse experts to work together to produce ‘system maps’ for how risks arise, identifying monitoring ‘watchpoints’ to help track risks and interventions that can help prevent them materialising. We critically appraise this pilot methodology, in order to improve our capacity to understand and act to protect human health.

Systemic risks arise through a process of contagion across political, economic, social, technological, legal/regulatory, and environmental systems. The highly complex nature of these risks prevents probabilistic assessment as is carried out for more conventional risks. This study critically explores a new approach based on participatory systems mapping with experts from diverse backgrounds helping to appraise these risks and identify data and monitoring ‘watchpoints’ to track their progress. We focus on three case studies: air quality, biosecurity, and food security. We assembled 36 experts selected in a stratified way to maximise cognitive diversity, plus 14 members of the interdisciplinary project team. Across 7 workshops, we identified 39 ‘risk cascades’, defined as pathways by which systemic risk can have negative impacts on human health, and we identified 681 watchpoints and interventions. We identify a broad range of interventions to reduce risk, exploring systems approaches to help prioritise these interventions; for example, understanding co-benefits in terms of reducing multiple different types of risk, as well as trade-offs. In this paper, we take a reflective approach, critically discussing constraints and refinements to our pilot methodology, in order to enhance capacity to appraise and act on systemic risks.

How can we act on the risks from air pollution, disease, and food insecurity? Insights from a new systemic risk assessment methodology.

This review highlights 10 recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, spanning diverse topics: (1) the global temperature jump of 2023–2024; (2) sea surface warming and marine heatwaves; (3) land carbon sinks; (4) interactions between climate change and biodiversity loss; (5) accelerated groundwater decline; (6) global dengue incidence; (7) income and labour productivity loss; (8) strategic considerations for scaling carbon dioxide removal (CDR); (9) integrity of carbon credit markets; and (10) policy mixes for climate change mitigation.

Interdisciplinary understanding is vital for delivering sound climate policy advice. However, navigating the ever-growing and increasingly diverse scholarly literature on climate change is challenging for any individual researcher. This annual synthesis highlights and explains recent advances across a variety of fields of climate change research. This year, the 10 insights focus on: (1) the record-warmth of 2023/2024 and the elevated Earth energy imbalance; (2) acceleration of ocean warming and intensifying marine heatwaves; (3) northern land carbon sinks under strain; (4) reinforcing feedback between biodiversity loss and climate change; (5) accelerated depletion of groundwater; (6) global dengue incidence; (7) global income losses and labour productivity declines; (8) strategic scaling of CDR; (9) integrity challenges in carbon credit markets and emerging responses; and (10) effective policy mixes for emissions reductions. The insights have been written to be accessible to researchers from different fields, serving as entry-points to specific topics, as well as providing an overview of the evolving landscape of climate change research. In the final section, the insights are used to develop overarching policy-relevant messages. This paper provides the basis for a science-policy report that was shared with all Party delegations ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil.

Highlights of climate change research in 2024–2025: 10insightsclimate.science

This study looks at future water deficit in glacier-fed river basins in Asia and the Andes under three possible global development pathways. The results show that a world with high population growth and low technological progress faces the greatest water stress. Scenarios with better technology or lower climate impacts reduce water deficits. Glacier meltwater increases temporarily under stronger warming but declines later in the century. Overall, the study highlights the need for climate mitigation and better water management to reduce future water scarcity.

This study assesses water scarcity in selected glacierized basins across Asia and the Andes under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Using a novel integration of the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), the Xanthos hydrological framework, and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), we estimate water availability and demand while accounting for glacier runoff and its temporal dynamics. Results reveal SSP3-7.0 as the most water-scarce scenario due to high water demand, higher population and low technological development. Instead, SSP5-8.5 results in slightly lower water scarcity risks than SSP3-7.0 due to its higher technological efficiency and lower population. Finally, SSP1-2.6 results in lower cumulative surface water deficits due to lower climate change impacts, better water and energy technology, and lower population. Glacier runoff has a peak in its contribution under severe climate scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and experiences a decline in the second half of the 21st century. The findings underscore the importance of effective mitigation to avoid peak-water occurrence under high emissions scenarios and adaptation measures, such as improving irrigation efficiency and reducing withdrawals, to address anthropogenic-induced water scarcity.

Increase water scarcity and glacier runoff decline under severe climate change scenarios in Asian and Andean basins.

Energy communities allow people to produce, share, and manage renewable energy together, helping reduce carbon emissions and decentralize the energy system. Their success, however, depends on whether citizens are willing to participate. This study explores what drives people to engage in these communities, especially the influence of positive emotions and the feeling of empowerment. By surveying Portuguese citizens, the research shows that joy and empowerment significantly increase interest and participation in energy communities. These insights can help policymakers and practitioners create more engaging and citizen-centred sustainable initiatives.

Energy communities play a key role in advancing decentralized and low-carbon energy systems by placing citizens at the centre of energy production and management. Yet, their effective implementation depends on citizens’ willingness to engage. This study examines the determinants of citizens’ behavioural intention to participate in energy communities, with particular emphasis on hedonic motivations and empowerment. To do so, a conceptual model integrating the Hedonic-Motivation System Adoption Model (HMSAM) and empowerment theory was developed. Data were collected through an online survey administered to Portuguese citizens, yielding 307 valid responses. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to test the proposed relationships. The results show that empowerment significantly moderates the effect of joy on behavioural intention, strengthening both the intention to participate and overall engagement in energy communities. These findings highlight the importance of positive emotional experiences and perceived control in motivating sustainable behaviours. The study provides practical guidance for policymakers and practitioners seeking to enhance citizen engagement, suggesting that fostering empowering and emotionally rewarding experiences can support the development and successful uptake of energy communities.

Empowerment and joy boost citizen engagement in renewable energy communities.

Societies are failing to meet basic human needs while simultaneously respecting ecological limits. This article examines the political feasibility of three of the most commonly discussed eco-social policies which aim to align social objectives with planetary boundaries. We use large-scale representative survey data from six countries. Support for all policies is higher in three middle-income countries with a higher number of unmet social needs compared to three high-income countries that mostly fail to respect planetary limits. Both across and within countries, beliefs about the environment and the economy are considerably more important for explaining support than demographic factors such as gender, age, education, or income.

Eco-social policies aim to establish a social floor while respecting planetary boundaries and to improve the social outcomes of ecological policies. Research on public attitudes towards eco-social policies remains limited, focusing exclusively on people in high-income countries in Europe. Using representative samples in three diverse middle-income countries (Brazil, South Africa, China) and three diverse high-income countries (US, UK, Germany) – which, together, are responsible for 49% of total global CO2 emissions – we examine differences in public support for three eco-social policies: universal basic services, a cap on income and wealth, and a redistributive carbon tax (N = 11,964). Utilizing ordinal logistic regression models, we find that participants in poorer countries with more social shortfalls show stronger support for policies that are focused on strengthening basic human needs compared to participants from high-income countries. However, within countries, values related to nature and beliefs in the ‘free market’ are considerably more important in explaining support than socio-demographic characteristics such as income or education, whose association with eco-social policy support is inconsistent. Moreover, the strength of the relationship between policy support and these explanatory variables varies considerably across countries, underlining the importance of context specific explanations for eco-social policy support.

People in middle-income countries show consistently higher support for policies that combine ecological and social goals than those in high-income countries.

Agriculture is the single largest cause for transgressing planetary boundaries. A global transformation to sustainable intensification is required in order to hold the windows open for meeting the Paris climate accord of limiting global warming to 1.5°C and the global biodiversity framework of halting loss of biodiversity, while securing food for a growing world population. Conservation Agriculture (CA) offers the only universally applicable agricultural practices that can be adopted at scale and speed, i.e., across all agro-ecological zones within the coming 1–2 decades. We review the rationale, evolution, and prospects of CA across the world.

We estimate that CA has almost doubled from approximately 100 to 200 M ha between 2008/09 and 2018/19, covering approximately 15% of global cropland. Our projections until 2024, estimates another 30% increase (to 250–270 M ha), with a potential of expanding to 50% of global cropland area by 2050 (≈700 M ha).

CA includes three fundamental principles; zero-tillage, cover crops, and diverse crop rotations. Converting from conventional tillage-based ploughing to CA sequesters ∼0.1–2 t C ha−1 yr−1. Considering an average sequestration potential with CA of 0.5–0.9 t carbon ha−1 y−1, converting the total 1.5 billion ha of global cropland to CA could sequester 0.41–0.82 billion t of carbon ha−1 y−1. Additionally, CA reduces pressure on biodiversity, increases soil moisture holding capacity, builds resilience of plant production to extremes, and reduces fuel use for tillage by 50–70 %.

CA has proven to maintain, stabilize, and increase high yield levels in intensive agricultural systems, which currently are stagnating or even decreasing in tillage-based agricultural systems, while significantly increasing yield levels on relatively poor or degraded agricultural soils. While CA is not a panacea for all food production challenges, it is difficult to find a more ready-to-scale farm practice.

Conservation Agriculture offers a universally applicable agricultural practices that can be adopted at scale and speed.

Sustainability transformations necessitate systemic changes that simultaneously respect planetary boundaries and promote social equity. This article presents a conceptual framework that links sociometabolic stress with the principles of strong sustainability. The framework enables the assessment of long-term social and environmental impacts of sustainability-oriented activities, considering both planetary thresholds and societal needs. The applicability of developed framework is illustrated through an exemplar analysis of the impacts and benefits associated with increased adoption of electric vehicles. Beyond offering a novel analytical lens, the proposed approach also invites reflection on the societal necessity and diversity of such activities.

This article introduces a conceptual framework linking sociometabolic stress to strong sustainability, providing a novel approach for assessing the transformative potential of sustainability-oriented activities. Sociometabolic stress is defined as the socio-ecological cost of provisioning societal services, such as transport and energy, relative to their societal benefits. The framework distinguishes between strong and weak sustainability by evaluating activities based on their capacity to reduce sociometabolic stress and ensure social equity. Strong sustainability is characterized by long-term conservation of critical natural capital and promotion of human well-being. Weak sustainability, in turn, assumes that human-made capital can substitute natural capital – a premise that risks long-term integrity of Earth's life-support systems. The framework integrates insights from social metabolism theory and the scaling of planetary boundaries to assess activities across two dimensions: societal need and socio-ecological cost. An example assessment from the transport sector demonstrates the framework's utility in evaluating whether increased electric vehicle adoption constitutes a strongly sustainable transformation. This article argues that reduced sociometabolic stress is a key indicator of strong sustainability and calls for its integration into sustainability assessments. This approach enables researchers and practitioners to better estimate the transformative potential of different activities, which thus supports societal planning.

A new societal transformation framework allows consideration between strong and weak sustainability activities.

Addressing environmental problems like climate change urgently requires the acceleration of sustainability transitions. This Intelligence Briefing explains why this is starting to happen for technical innovations like renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles. Drawing on socio-technical transitions theory, it discusses five acceleration mechanisms that reduce cost, improve performance, change actor orientations, mobilise finance, and increase socio-political support. While not denying their potential relevance, the Briefing also shows that these acceleration mechanisms are not (yet) being activated for social innovations and deep lifestyle change. The Briefing, therefore, also criticises wishful thinking tendencies in some sustainability transformation research strands.

Sustainability transitions should accelerate to address environmental problems like climate change and biodiversity loss. This Intelligence Briefing aims to explain the empirical phenomenon that rapid transitions are starting to happen with regard to several low-carbon technologies (like solar-PV, wind, and electric vehicles), but not with regard to transformative social innovations or lifestyle changes. It identifies and discusses five reasons that help explain this difference: increasing-returns-to-adoption mechanisms; socio-technical feedbacks between technology, actors, and institutions; financial reorientation; issue linkage to wider political goals; and societal acceptance. It further suggests that technical innovations can act as a flywheel or catalyst for subsequent social innovations. And it makes critical comparisons between the socio-technical transitions literature and some approaches in the transformations literature, finding the former more theoretically developed, empirically validated, and policy relevant than the latter for the topic of acceleration.

Low-carbon technologies are starting to accelerate sustainability transitions, while purely social innovations linger.

Climate clubs are small coalitions of countries that focus on a broad range of priorities related to mitigation. In theory, these smaller initiatives can overcome the intractable challenges of global environmental governance. However, there is little discussion about the influence of geopolitics in the development of climate clubs, as the field is dominated by economic studies. This article provides an overview of the impact of geopolitics on the formation of climate clubs. It undertakes a case study on the Mineral Security Partnership to highlight the key implications of climate clubs for environmental governance.

Climate clubs are set to become important mechanisms for environmental governance. Scholarship on climate clubs proposes that small coalitions of countries can overcome some of the key challenges of global climate agreements. While these studies provide important insights, they are largely removed from discourses on geopolitics. This research gap is alarming as the mutual constitution between geopolitics and climate clubs is likely to have important implications for global environmental governance, particularly in the context of escalating competition over critical minerals.

This article aims to provide a geopolitical context to climate clubs. Firstly, literature on the International Relations of the Anthropocene is used to conceptualise climate clubs as an outcome and driver of geopolitics. Secondly, a case study on the Mineral Security Partnership is undertaken to illustrate the theoretical propositions. In the third step, the results of the case study are used to discuss the key implications of climate clubs for environmental governance.

The findings of this research suggest that the current international system has facilitated the development of climate clubs that are explicitly driven by geopolitical imperatives. The article contributes to environmental policy by proposing that the exclusionary and elitist characteristics of climate clubs can undermine global environmental governance.

Climate clubs are driven by geopolitical competition as much as they are by environmental cooperation.