Measurement is the weak link between theory and empirical test. Complex concepts such as ideology, identity, and legitimacy are difficult to measure; yet, without measurement that matches theoretical constructs, careful empirical studies may not be testing that which they had intended. Item response theory (IRT) models offer promise by producing transparent and improvable measures of latent factors thought to underlie behavior. Unfortunately, those factors have no intrinsic substantive interpretations. Prior solutions to the substantive interpretation problem require exogenous information about the units, such as legislators or survey respondents, which make up the data; limit analysis to one latent factor; and/or are difficult to generalize. We propose and validate a solution, IRT-M, that produces multiple, potentially correlated, generalizable, latent dimensions, each with substantive meaning that the analyst specifies before analysis to match theoretical concepts. We offer an R package and step-by-step instructions in its use, via an application to survey data.

In this paper, we explore the applications of Tail Variance (TV) as a measure of tail riskiness and the confidence level of using Tail Conditional Expectation (TCE)-based risk capital. While TCE measures the expected loss of a risk that exceeds a certain threshold, TV measures the variability of risk along its tails. We first derive analytical formulas of TV and TCE for a large variety of probability distributions. These formulas are useful instruments for relevant research works on tail risk measures. We then propose a distribution-free approach utilizing TV to estimate the lower bounds of the confidence level of using TCE-based risk capital. In doing so, we introduce sharpened conditional probability inequalities, which halve the bounds of conventional Markov and Cantelli inequalities. Such an approach is easy to implement. We further investigate the characterization of tail risks by TV through an exploration of TV’s asymptotics. A distribution-free limit formula is derived for the asymptotics of TV. To further investigate the asymptotic properties, we consider two broad distribution families defined on tails, namely, the polynomial-tailed distributions and the exponential-tailed distributions. The two distribution families are found to exhibit an asymptotic equivalence between TV and the reciprocal square of the hazard rate. We also establish asymptotic relationships between TCE and VaR for the two families. Our asymptotic analysis contributes to the existing research by unifying the asymptotic expressions and the convergence rate of TV for Student-t distributions, exponential distributions, and normal distributions, which complements the discussion on the convergence rate of univariate cases in [28]. To show the usefulness of our results, we present two case studies based on real data from the industry. We first show how to use conditional inequalities to assess the confidence of using TCE-based risk capital for different types of insurance businesses. Then, for financial data, we provide alternative evidence for the relationship between the data frequency and the tail categorization by the asymptotics of TV.

In this manuscript, we address open questions raised by Dieker and Yakir (2014), who proposed a novel method of estimating (discrete) Pickands constants $\mathcal{H}^\delta_\alpha$ using a family of estimators $\xi^\delta_\alpha(T)$, $T>0$, where $\alpha\in(0,2]$ is the Hurst parameter, and $\delta\geq0$ is the step size of the regular discretization grid. We derive an upper bound for the discretization error $\mathcal{H}_\alpha^0 - \mathcal{H}_\alpha^\delta$, whose rate of convergence agrees with Conjecture 1 of Dieker and Yakir (2014) in the case $\alpha\in(0,1]$ and agrees up to logarithmic terms for $\alpha\in(1,2)$. Moreover, we show that all moments of $\xi_\alpha^\delta(T)$ are uniformly bounded and the bias of the estimator decays no slower than $\exp\{-\mathcal CT^{\alpha}\}$, as T becomes large.

The large volume of seemingly conflicting guidance on the management of borderline personality disorder (BPD), combined with the ongoing shortage of specialised resources, can make the task feel like an exclusive undertaking that the general psychiatrist is underprepared for. In this article, we distil current evidence to submit that sound psychiatric management principles used to treat all serious and enduring mental disorders (diagnostics, comorbidity management, rational pharmacotherapy and dynamic risk management) are readily applicable and particularly therapeutic for BPD. We offer actionable practice guidance that we hope will render the clinical management experience a more lucid and rewarding one for both practitioner and patient.

This study investigates the nexus between the rise of female leaders and the appointment of women to cabinets and how family ties, crucial for women’s political ascendance, impact these appointments. Using a unique dataset across 160 countries from 1966 to 2021, we find that female leaders generally appoint more women to their cabinets and key cabinet roles. However, this effect is significantly moderated by the “Goldilocks” principle, defined by the nature of a leader’s family ties. Specifically, female leaders with moderate family ties are most likely to appoint women. In contrast, their counterparts from political dynasties and those without familial political ties are less inclined to do so. The exploratory analysis suggests potential mechanisms driving this dynamic: female leaders with a “just-right” degree of political lineage are more likely to have advanced degrees and Western education, potentially aligning them more closely with liberal and feminist values.

Diabetes and depression have a bidirectional relationship, but some antidepressants (such as the tricyclics) may have detrimental effects in diabetes that are exacerbated by behavioural changes associated with depression. This month's Cochrane Review evaluated the efficacy of psychological and pharmacological treatments of comorbid depression in diabetes and found that such interventions have a moderate and clinically significant effect on depression outcomes in people with diabetes. However, conclusions were limited by significant heterogeneity within examined populations and interventions, and significant risk of bias within trials. This commentary critically appraises the review and aims to contextualise its findings.

Persistent gender inequalities in internal political efficacy have traditionally been attributed to gender differences in resources. This article complements the resource model by focusing on how gendered political socialization occurs during citizenship education and how citizenship education might mitigate, reproduce, or intensify inequalities. Based on multilevel models on a 2016 survey dataset (3898 students across 150 schools) of Belgian senior high school students, we show that citizenship education increases internal political efficacy for both male and female students. However, we also find that citizenship education intensifies inequalities since male students gain more from it than female students, especially in schools with a conservative gender role culture. Our results indicate that the influence of citizenship education depends on the gendered school context in which it is offered. In this respect, citizenship education risks intensifying rather than mitigating gender inequalities.

We investigated how environmental conditions translate into reproductive success or failure in Aurelia aurita from the medusa to the polyp life stage. This study examined how: (i) settlement success and development of planula larvae and polyps vary across the year, (ii) the role of temperature in determining the successful settlement of larvae and growth of polyps, and (iii) the influence of maternal provisioning in the successful settlement of larvae and growth of polyps. Medusae were collected monthly from February to December 2019 from Horsea Lake, UK. Planula larvae were settled in conditions mimicking the in situ temperature and salinity of collection. For the individual treatments, planula collected in August settled most rapidly. Early development rates (<8 tentacles) were significantly higher than later growth rates (>8 tentacles) and were positively correlated with temperature, unlike later growth rates. Planula length, used as an indicator of maternal provisioning, varied significantly across the year. In July 2019, a high temperature anomaly coincided with an increased time spent by planula larvae in the water column. Increasing temperatures past thermal limits through the increasing occurrence of temperature anomalies is likely to be detrimental to larval settlement and indirectly to the replenishment of temperate polyp populations.

Researchers are increasingly reliant on online, opt-in surveys. But prior benchmarking exercises employ national samples, making it unclear whether such surveys can effectively represent Black respondents and other minorities nationwide. This paper presents the results of uncompensated online and in-person surveys administered chiefly in one racially diverse American city—Philadelphia—during its 2023 mayoral primary. The participation rate for online surveys promoted via Facebook and Instagram was .4%, with White residents and those with college degrees more likely to respond. Such biases help explain why neither our surveys nor public polls correctly identified the Democratic primary’s winner, an establishment-backed Black Democrat. Even weighted, geographically stratified online surveys typically underestimate the winner’s support, although an in-person exit poll does not. We identify some similar patterns in Chicago. These results indicate important gaps in the populations represented in contemporary opt-in surveys and suggest that alternative survey modes help reduce them.

Egg masses from an unknown mollusc have been found in South-West Iceland since 2020, but it was not until September 2023 that the adult organism was collected. Morphological analysis of both adults and egg masses pointed towards the identification of the species as Melanochlamys diomedea. This was further confirmed through DNA analyses using COI, H3, and 16S rRNA markers, which established the presence of a new non-indigenous species in the North Atlantic. Members of the genus Melanochlamys have predominantly been found in the Indo-Pacific basin and the Pacific Ocean, with only one species known to exist across the Madeira Islands, Canary Islands, and Cape Verde in the Atlantic. The known distribution range of M. diomedea extends from Alaska to California on the Pacific side of North America, where it typically inhabits sandy-muddy areas of the littoral in the tidal zone and below. It is not known how the species arrived in Iceland. However, maritime transport through either ballast water or biofouling is being considered as the most likely mode of dispersal.

There is a lack of data on mental health service utilisation and outcomes for people with experience of forced migration living in the UK. Details about migration experiences documented in free-text fields in electronic health records might be harnessed using novel data science methods; however, there are potential limitations and ethical concerns.

Polynesia is a hotspot for marine biodiversity in the South Pacific Ocean, yet the distribution of many invertebrate taxa in this region is still often poorly assessed. Information on the diversity and phylogeography of sponges in particular remains limited in spite of their importance for coral reef ecosystems. Recent expeditions to the island group of Wallis and Futuna enabled the first larger-scale assessment of the Wallis Island sponge fauna, resulting in the molecular identification of 82 unique Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units (MOTUs) from 339 sponge samples based on 28S C-region rDNA and CO1 mtDNA data. Faunal comparisons with both adjacent archipelagos and more distant Indo-Pacific regions were predominantly based on the MOTUs obtained from Wallis Island ecoregions, and suggest high levels of endemism of sponges in Wallis and Futuna, corroborating previous data on the biodiversity of sponges and other marine phyla in the South Pacific. The results of this molecular taxonomic survey of the Wallis and Futuna sponge fauna aim to lay solid foundations for a sustainable ‘Blue Economy’ in Wallis and Futuna for the conservation of their local coral reefs.