Does the public accurately perceive how views change in society? Prevailing narratives suggest not, but we argue this conclusion stems from searching for the wrong kind of accuracy—demanding pollster-like precision instead of acknowledging the public’s robust perception of the ‘gist’ of change. Re-analyzing three large studies (total N = 2,236), we show that collective perceptions of change are incredibly consistent across different measurement methods (r > 0.90) and, critically, are highly aligned with actual historical data (r > 0.70). This collective wisdom is underpinned by a robust, individual-level ability to perceive the direction and relative force of these shifts. Moreover, there is a clear pattern to the minority of attitudes for which perceptions of change were inaccurate. We conclude that the public possesses a robust gist-based judgment that accurately tracks how various political attitudes have changed.

In his new book Beyond the Law’s Reach? Shmuel Nili shows how affluent democracies have become entangled with violent autocratic regimes and brutal international cartels, and have thereby become complicit in serious global injustices. This essay asks who bears responsibility for this complicity. It argues that citizens of affluent democratic societies often share responsibility for their own government’s unjust entanglements and explores the conditions under which this holds true. It focuses in particular on the challenge posed by relatively “obscure” injustices, which even well-informed citizens cannot be expected to know about. In addressing these cases, this essay outlines a theory of civic obligation that can help explain when citizens have a duty to take action against government injustice and clarify how much they can be expected to know about their representatives’ wrongdoing.

The production, trade, and consumption of meat products and their movement around the planet were essential to the development of global markets during the first wave of globalization. This article analyzes the main changes in the ownership structure and profile of the beef industry in South America from the late nineteenth century until 1930 and how this process was reflected in certain macroeconomic variables. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the drivers of success of the meat-producing regions of Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, Paraguay, and Patagonia (both the Argentine and Chilean sides), and also examined the failure cases of Venezuela and the Colombian Caribbean.

We study a queueing system with a fixed number of parallel service stations of infinite servers, each having a dedicated arrival process, and one flexible arrival stream that is routed to one of the service stations according to a ‘weighted’ shortest queue policy. We consider the model with general arrival processes and general service time distributions. Assuming that the dedicated arrival rates are of order n and the flexible arrival rate is of order $\sqrt{n}$, we show that the diffusion-scaled queueing processes converge to a stochastic Volterra integral equation with ‘ranks’ driven by a continuous Gaussian process. It reduces to the limiting diffusion with a discontinuous drift in the Markovian setting.

There is limited post-pandemic youth mental health data in low- and middle-income countries. This study describes the prevalence of suicidal ideation, suicidal attempt, and self-harm since the COVID-19 pandemic among young Filipino adolescents. Adolescents aged 13-16 years old from public and private high schools in Cavite, Philippines were recruited for a cross-sectional school survey conducted from May 2023 to February 2024. Suicidal behaviours and self-harm since the pandemic were determined using a self-administered questionnaire alongside sociodemographics and internalising and externalising symptoms. Of the 1,229 13-16-year-olds who completed the survey, 54.0% experienced suicidal ideation, 24.2% attempted suicide, and 34.2 % reported self-harm between 30 January 2020 and the date when they completed the survey. The prevalence of suicide attempts was higher among females (29.6%) than males (13.1%). Parental absence was associated with suicidal attempts (ARRR=2.93) and self-harm and/or suicidal ideation (ARRR=2.00) while living with either the biological mother or father was moderated by gender. Internalising and externalising symptom scores increased the risk for both outcomes by ≥15%. This study revealed a high prevalence of suicidal and self-harming behaviours among young adolescents in the Philippines. This calls for action to implement population-based strategies in suicide prevention, early screening, and cross-sectoral intervention.

Astronomical objects that change rapidly give us insight into extreme environments, allowing us to identify new phenomena, test fundamental physics, and probe the Universe on all scales. Transient and variable radio sources range from the cosmological, such as gamma-ray bursts, to much more local events, such as massive flares from stars in our Galactic neighbourhood. The capability to observe the sky repeatedly, over many frequencies and timescales, has allowed us to explore and understand dynamic phenomena in a way that has not been previously possible. In the past decade, there have been great strides forward as we prepared for the revolution in time domain radio astronomy that is being enabled by the SKA Observatory telescopes, the SKAO pathfinders and precursors, and other ‘next generation’ radio telescopes. Hence, it is timely to review the current status of the field and summarise the developments that have happened to get to our current point. This review focuses on image domain (or ‘slow’) transients, on timescales of seconds to years. We discuss the physical mechanisms that cause radio variability and the classes of radio transients that result. We then outline what an ideal image domain radio transients survey would look like and summarise the history of the field, from targeted observations to surveys with existing radio telescopes. We discuss methods and approaches for transient discovery and classification and identify some of the challenges in scaling up current methods for future telescopes. Finally, we present our current understanding of the dynamic radio sky, in terms of source populations and transient rates, and look at what we can expect from surveys on future radio telescopes.

New discoveries prompt reinterpretations of one of the most enigmatic echinoderm classes, the Cyclocystoidea. Exceptionally well-preserved cyclocystoids have been discovered in the Upper Ordovician (Katian) Kirkfield and Verulam formations in the Lake Simcoe region of southern Ontario, Canada. Four different cyclocystoid taxa are present, including Cyclocystoides cf. C. scammaphoris, Nicholsodiscus cf. N. anticostiensis, Zygocycloides marstoni, and Brechincycloides stanhynei new genus new species. These specimens reveal that the central disk of cyclocystoids consists largely of perforate extraxial plates and that the ever-present sutural pores are epispires surrounded by annular plates that may or may not be in lateral contact with each other. The specimens of B. stanhynei n. gen. n. sp. are significant because they are the first cyclocystoid fossils to reveal that the hydropore/gonopore and periproct are positioned on the aboral side of the central disk. The suggestively complex marginal ring, previously of undetermined origin, represents articulated floor plates in a circular arrangement supporting a circumferential water vascular system. Furthermore, the marginal ring reveals growth zones that correspond to axes of pentaradial symmetry. In the new interpretation, cupules are tube foot basins, and channels through the marginal ossicles can be explained best in the context of the axial origin as floor plates accompanied by a cover plate system. Application of the Extraxial–Axial Theory (EAT) compels a revised understanding of key anatomies comparable with other early radial echinoderms. We document evidence for cyclocystoid orientation in life with epispires facing upward and the tube foot basins in the floor plates directed towards the substrate. The new family Brechincycloididae is proposed for all cyclocystoids whose apomorphy consists of a flat, attenuated shelf tapering away from the proximal side of each floor plate.

UUID: http://zoobank.org/605fdf27-b38b-4d41-824b-d10b139f90f5

There is existing evidence that many individuals have preferences regarding selection of numbers in lottery games. Lottery data indicate that the percentage of players who choose their numbers, instead of having numbers randomly assigned, varies widely by lottery game. Differences in number selection mechanisms between games and an expected return maximization motive only present for parimutuel games are both reasons that can explain the variation. Differences in the payoff distributions between lottery games could also be contributing to the observed variation, a novel proposition. An experiment is designed to control for differences in number selection mechanisms and remove the expected return maximization motive, to test for the presence of distribution-dependent number preferences. Results indicate that 40% to 50% of subjects may display such preferences. It is therefore possible that distribution-dependent number preferences contribute to the empirical variation in number selection percentages in lottery games.

This study introduces the novel concept of the justice/participation paradox to post-conflict peace and justice literature. The 2016 peace agreement between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) formalised a solution to the peace-versus-justice dilemma: allocating congressional seats to FARC while ensuring legal accountability through the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP). In the JEP, perpetrators receive alternative sanctions instead of prison, provided they fully disclose the truth about their crimes, without inhibiting political participation. This has given rise to a new paradox: the ‘justice/participation paradox’ of promoting a political project in one arena while confessing crimes in another. The article analyses the performativity of confession vis-à-vis political participation, based on 38 interviews, participant observation, and 35 hours of video recording. It finds that former FARC members use the JEP to confess and show remorse while asserting political authority. Their dual role complicates continued political engagement, especially as guaranteed congressional seats expire and JEP sanctions must be fulfilled. Based on these findings, the article underscores the importance of recognising time and grass-roots political participation in future peace processes.