In this paper we study a stochastic differential game between two insurers whose surplus processes are modelled by quadratic-linear diffusion processes. We consider an exit probability game. One insurer controls its risk process to minimize the probability that the surplus difference reaches a low level (indicating a disadvantaged surplus position of the insurer) before reaching a high level, while the other insurer aims to maximize the probability. We solve the game by finding the value function and the Nash equilibrium strategy in explicit forms.

Branching processes in random environments have been widely studied and applied to population growth systems to model the spread of epidemics, infectious diseases, cancerous tumor growth, and social network traffic. However, Ebola virus, tuberculosis infections, and avian flu grow or change at rates that vary with time—at peak rates during pandemic time periods, while at low rates when near extinction. The branching processes in generalized autoregressive conditional environments we propose provide a novel approach to branching processes that allows for such time-varying random environments and instances of peak growth and near extinction-type rates. Offspring distributions we consider to illustrate the model include the generalized Poisson, binomial, and negative binomial integer-valued GARCH models. We establish conditions on the environmental process that guarantee stationarity and ergodicity of the mean offspring number and environmental processes and provide equations from which their variances, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation functions can be deduced. Furthermore, we present results on fundamental questions of importance to these processes—the survival-extinction dichotomy, growth behavior, necessary and sufficient conditions for noncertain extinction, characterization of the phase transition between the subcritical and supercritical regimes, and survival behavior in each phase and at criticality.

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the maximum interpoint distance of random points in a d-dimensional ellipsoid with a unique major axis. Instead of investigating only a fixed number of n points as n tends to ∞, we consider the much more general setting in which the random points are the supports of appropriately defined Poisson processes. Our main result covers the case of uniformly distributed points.

We discuss the short-range dependence (SRD) property of the increments of the fractional Poisson process, called the fractional Poissonian noise. We also establish that the fractional negative binomial process (FNBP) has the long-range dependence (LRD) property, while the increments of the FNBP have the SRD property. Our definitions of the SRD/LRD properties are similar to those for a stationary process and different from those recently used in Biard and Saussereau (2014).

In his well-known textbook Probability with Martingales, David Williams (1991) introduces the Mabinogion sheep problem in which there is a magical flock of sheep, some black, some white. At each stage n=1,2,..., a sheep (chosen randomly from the entire flock, independently of previous events) bleats; if this bleating sheep is white, one black sheep (if any remain) instantly becomes white; if the bleating sheep is black, one white sheep (if any remain) instantly becomes black. No births or deaths occur. Suppose that one may remove any number of white sheep from the flock at (the end of) each stage n=0,1,.... The object is to maximize the expected final number of black sheep. By applying the martingale optimality principle, Williams showed that the problem is solvable and admits a simple nice solution. In this paper we consider a generalization of the Mabinogion sheep problem with two parameters 0≤p, q≤1, denoted M(p,q), in which at each stage, when the bleating sheep is white (black, respectively), a black (white, respectively) sheep (if any remain) instantly becomes white (black, respectively), with probability p (q, respectively) and nothing changes with probability 1-p (1-q, respectively). Note that the original problem corresponds to (p,q)=(1,1). Following Williams' approach, we solve the two cases (p,q)=(1,1/2) and (1/2,1) which admit simple solutions.

The sequential stochastic assignment problem (SSAP) allocates distinct workers with deterministic values to sequentially arriving tasks with stochastic parameters to maximize the expected total reward. In this paper we study an extension of the SSAP, in which the worker values are considered to be random variables, taking on new values upon each task arrival. Several SSAP models with different assumptions on the distribution of the worker values and closed-form expressions for optimal assignment policies are presented.

An urn contains black and red balls. Let Z n be the proportion of black balls at time n and 0≤L<U≤1 random barriers. At each time n, a ball b n is drawn. If b n is black and Z n-1<U, then b n is replaced together with a random number B n of black balls. If b n is red and Z n-1>L, then b n is replaced together with a random number R n of red balls. Otherwise, no additional balls are added, and b n alone is replaced. In this paper we assume that R n =B n . Then, under mild conditions, it is shown that Z n →a.s. Z for some random variable Z, and D n ≔√n(Z n -Z)→𝒩(0,σ2) conditionally almost surely (a.s.), where σ2 is a certain random variance. Almost sure conditional convergence means that ℙ(D n ∈⋅|𝒢n )→w 𝒩(0,σ2) a.s., where ℙ(D n ∈⋅|𝒢n ) is a regular version of the conditional distribution of D n given the past 𝒢n . Thus, in particular, one obtains D n →𝒩(0,σ2) stably. It is also shown that L<Z<U a.s. and Z has nonatomic distribution.

The main purpose of this paper is to define and characterize random fields of bounded variation, that is, random fields with sample paths in the space of functions of bounded variation, and to study their mean total variation. Simple formulas are obtained for the mean total directional variation of random fields, based on known formulas for the directional variation of deterministic functions. It is also shown that the mean variation of random fields with stationary increments is proportional to the Lebesgue measure, and an expression of the constant of proportionality, called the variation intensity, is established. This expression shows, in particular, that the variation intensity depends only on the family of two-dimensional distributions of the stationary increment random field. When restricting to random sets, the obtained results give generalizations of well-known formulas from stochastic geometry and mathematical morphology. The interest of these general results is illustrated by computing the variation intensities of several classical stationary random field and random set models, namely Gaussian random fields and excursion sets, Poisson shot noises, Boolean models, dead leaves models, and random tessellations.

We define and analyze a coalescent process as a recursive box-filling process whose genealogy is given by an ancestral time-reversed, time-inhomogeneous Bienyamé‒Galton‒Watson process. Special interest is on the expected size of a typical box and its probability of being empty. Special cases leading to exact asymptotic computations are investigated when the coalescing mechanisms are either linear fractional or quadratic.

Let (W n (θ))n∈ℕ0 be the Biggins martingale associated with a supercritical branching random walk, and denote by W_∞(θ) its limit. Assuming essentially that the martingale (W n (2θ))n∈ℕ0 is uniformly integrable and that var W 1(θ) is finite, we prove a functional central limit theorem for the tail process (W ∞(θ)-W n+r (θ))r∈ℕ0 and a law of the iterated logarithm for W ∞(θ)-W n (θ) as n→∞.

In this paper we consider a variation of the full-information secretary problem where the random variables to be observed are independent but not necessary identically distributed. The main result is a sharp lower bound for the optimal win probability. Precisely, if X 1,...,X n are independent random variables with known continuous distributions and V n (X 1,...,Xn ):=supτℙ(X τ=M n ), where M n ≔max{X 1,...,X n } and the supremum is over all stopping times adapted to X 1,...,X n then V n (X 1,...,X n )≥(1-1/n)n-1, and this bound is attained. The method of proof consists in reducing the problem to that of a sequence of random variables taking at most two possible values, and then applying Bruss' sum-the-odds theorem, Bruss (2000). In order to obtain a sharp bound for each n, we improve Bruss' lower bound, Bruss (2003), for the sum-the-odds problem.

This paper uses recent results on continuous-time finite-horizon optimal switching problems with negative switching costs to prove the existence of a saddle point in an optimal stopping (Dynkin) game. Sufficient conditions for the game's value to be continuous with respect to the time horizon are obtained using recent results on norm estimates for doubly reflected backward stochastic differential equations. This theory is then demonstrated numerically for the special cases of cancellable call and put options in a Black‒Scholes market.

In the spirit of the axiomatic approach by Rogers (1998) we show the equivalence between a set of assumptions on the behaviour of prices and the existence of a representation of these prices as conditional expectations. We rely on only weak assumptions and avoid any a priori modelling of negligible events or of any market filtration. Rather, both endogenously emerge along with the representation as conditional expectations.

Consider a family of Boolean models, indexed by integers n≥1. The nth model features a Poisson point process in ℝn of intensity e{nρn}, and balls of independent and identically distributed radii distributed like X̅n√n. Assume that ρn→ρ as n→∞, and that X̅n satisfies a large deviations principle. We show that there then exist the three deterministic thresholds τd, the degree threshold, τp, the percolation probability threshold, and τv, the volume fraction threshold, such that, asymptotically as n tends to ∞, we have the following features. (i) For ρ<τd, almost every point is isolated, namely its ball intersects no other ball; (ii) for τd<ρ<τp, the mean number of balls intersected by a typical ball converges to ∞ and nevertheless there is no percolation; (iii) for τp<ρ<τv, the volume fraction is 0 and nevertheless percolation occurs; (iv) for τd<ρ<τv, the mean number of balls intersected by a typical ball converges to ∞ and nevertheless the volume fraction is 0; (v) for ρ>τv, the whole space is covered. The analysis of this asymptotic regime is motivated by problems in information theory, but it could be of independent interest in stochastic geometry. The relations between these three thresholds and the Shannon‒Poltyrev threshold are discussed.

We prove that proper coloring distinguishes between block factors and finitely dependent stationary processes. A stochastic process is finitely dependent if variables at sufficiently well-separated locations are independent; it is a block factor if it can be expressed as an equivariant finite-range function of independent variables. The problem of finding non-block-factor finitely dependent processes dates back to 1965. The first published example appeared in 1993, and we provide arguably the first natural examples. Schramm proved in 2008 that no stationary 1-dependent 3-coloring of the integers exists, and asked whether a $k$ -dependent $q$ -coloring exists for any $k$ and $q$ . We give a complete answer by constructing a 1-dependent 4-coloring and a 2-dependent 3-coloring. Our construction is canonical and natural, yet very different from all previous schemes. In its pure form it yields precisely the two finitely dependent colorings mentioned above, and no others. The processes provide unexpected connections between extremal cases of the Lovász local lemma and descent and peak sets of random permutations. Neither coloring can be expressed as a block factor, nor as a function of a finite-state Markov chain; indeed, no stationary finitely dependent coloring can be so expressed. We deduce extensions involving $d$ dimensions and shifts of finite type; in fact, any nondegenerate shift of finite type also distinguishes between block factors and finitely dependent processes.

The aim of this paper is to find a formula for the double Laplace transform of the truncated variation of a Brownian motion with drift. In order to find the double Laplace transform, we also prove some identities for the Brownian motion with drift, which may be of independent interest.

The problem of inferring the distribution of a random vector given that its norm is large requires modeling a homogeneous limiting density. We suggest an approach based on graphical models which is suitable for high-dimensional vectors. We introduce the notion of one-component regular variation to describe a function that is regularly varying in its first component. We extend the representation and Karamata's theorem to one-component regularly varying functions, probability distributions and densities, and explain why these results are fundamental in multivariate extreme-value theory. We then generalize the Hammersley–Clifford theorem to relate asymptotic conditional independence to a factorization of the limiting density, and use it to model multivariate tails.

We study a Pólya-type urn model defined as follows. Start at time 0 with a single ball of some colour. Then, at each time n≥1, choose a ball from the urn uniformly at random. With probability ½<p<1, return the ball to the urn along with another ball of the same colour. With probability 1−p, recolour the ball to a new colour and then return it to the urn. This is equivalent to the supercritical case of a random graph model studied by Backhausz and Móri (2015), (2016) and Thörnblad (2015). We prove that, with probability 1, there is a dominating colour, in the sense that, after some random but finite time, there is a colour that always has the most number of balls. A crucial part of the proof is the analysis of an urn model with two colours, in which the observed ball is returned to the urn along with another ball of the same colour with probability p, and removed with probability 1−p. Our results here generalise a classical result about the Pólya urn model (which corresponds to p=1).

The best-choice problem and the duration problem, known as versions of the secretary problem, are concerned with choosing an object from those that appear sequentially. Let (B,p) denote the best-choice problem and (D,p) the duration problem when the total number N of objects is a bounded random variable with prior p=(p1, p2,...,pn) for a known upper bound n. Gnedin (2005) discovered the correspondence relation between these two quite different optimal stopping problems. That is, for any given prior p, there exists another prior q such that (D,p) is equivalent to (B,q). In this paper, motivated by his discovery, we attempt to find the alternate correspondence {p(m),m≥0}, i.e. an infinite sequence of priors such that (D,p(m-1)) is equivalent to (B,p(m)) for all m≥1, starting with p(0)=(0,...,0,1). To be more precise, the duration problem is distinguished into (D1,p) or (D2,p), referred to as model 1 or model 2, depending on whether the planning horizon is N or n. The aforementioned problem is model 1. For model 2 as well, we can find the similar alternate correspondence {p[m],m≥ 0}. We treat both the no-information model and the full-information model and examine the limiting behaviors of their optimal rules and optimal values related to the alternate correspondences as n→∞. A generalization of the no-information model is given. It is worth mentioning that the alternate correspondences for model 1 and model 2 are respectively related to the urn sampling models without replacement and with replacement.

We consider a greedy walk on a Poisson process on the real line. It is known that the walk does not visit all points of the process. In this paper we first obtain some useful independence properties associated with this process which enable us to compute the distribution of the sequence of indices of visited points. Given that the walk tends to +∞, we find the distribution of the number of visited points in the negative half-line, as well as the distribution of the time at which the walk achieves its minimum.