We determine the order of magnitude of $\mathbb{E}|\sum _{n\leqslant x}f(n)|^{2q}$, where $f(n)$ is a Steinhaus or Rademacher random multiplicative function, and $0\leqslant q\leqslant 1$. In the Steinhaus case, this is equivalent to determining the order of $\lim _{T\rightarrow \infty }\frac{1}{T}\int _{0}^{T}|\sum _{n\leqslant x}n^{-it}|^{2q}\,dt$.

In particular, we find that $\mathbb{E}|\sum _{n\leqslant x}f(n)|\asymp \sqrt{x}/(\log \log x)^{1/4}$. This proves a conjecture of Helson that one should have better than squareroot cancellation in the first moment and disproves counter-conjectures of various other authors. We deduce some consequences for the distribution and large deviations of $\sum _{n\leqslant x}f(n)$.

The proofs develop a connection between $\mathbb{E}|\sum _{n\leqslant x}f(n)|^{2q}$ and the $q$th moment of a critical, approximately Gaussian, multiplicative chaos and then establish the required estimates for that. We include some general introductory discussion about critical multiplicative chaos to help readers unfamiliar with that area.

We develop the concept of character level for the complex irreducible characters of finite, general or special, linear and unitary groups. We give characterizations of the level of a character in terms of its Lusztig label and in terms of its degree. Then we prove explicit upper bounds for character values at elements with not-too-large centralizers and derive upper bounds on the covering number and mixing time of random walks corresponding to these conjugacy classes. We also characterize the level of the character in terms of certain dual pairs and prove explicit exponential character bounds for the character values, provided that the level is not too large. Several further applications are also provided. Related results for other finite classical groups are obtained in the sequel [Guralnick et al. ‘Character levels and character bounds for finite classical groups’, Preprint, 2019, arXiv:1904.08070] by different methods.

Let $K=\mathbb{Q}(\unicode[STIX]{x1D714})$ with $\unicode[STIX]{x1D714}$ the root of a degree $n$ monic irreducible polynomial $f\in \mathbb{Z}[X]$. We show that the degree $n$ polynomial $N(\sum _{i=1}^{n-k}x_{i}\unicode[STIX]{x1D714}^{i-1})$ in $n-k$ variables takes the expected asymptotic number of prime values if $n\geqslant 4k$. In the special case $K=\mathbb{Q}(\sqrt[n]{\unicode[STIX]{x1D703}})$, we show that $N(\sum _{i=1}^{n-k}x_{i}\sqrt[n]{\unicode[STIX]{x1D703}^{i-1}})$ takes infinitely many prime values, provided $n\geqslant 22k/7$.

Our proof relies on using suitable ‘Type I’ and ‘Type II’ estimates in Harman’s sieve, which are established in a similar overall manner to the previous work of Friedlander and Iwaniec on prime values of $X^{2}+Y^{4}$ and of Heath-Brown on $X^{3}+2Y^{3}$. Our proof ultimately relies on employing explicit elementary estimates from the geometry of numbers and algebraic geometry to control the number of highly skewed lattices appearing in our final estimates.

A meander is a topological configuration of a line and a simple closed curve in the plane (or a pair of simple closed curves on the 2-sphere) intersecting transversally. Meanders can be traced back to H. Poincaré and naturally appear in various areas of mathematics, theoretical physics and computational biology (in particular, they provide a model of polymer folding). Enumeration of meanders is an important open problem. The number of meanders with $2N$ crossings grows exponentially when $N$ grows, but the long-standing problem on the precise asymptotics is still out of reach.

We show that the situation becomes more tractable if one additionally fixes the topological type (or the total number of minimal arcs) of a meander. Then we are able to derive simple asymptotic formulas for the numbers of meanders as $N$ tends to infinity. We also compute the asymptotic probability of getting a simple closed curve on a sphere by identifying the endpoints of two arc systems (one on each of the two hemispheres) along the common equator.

The new tools we bring to bear are based on interpretation of meanders as square-tiled surfaces with one horizontal and one vertical cylinder. The proofs combine recent results on Masur–Veech volumes of moduli spaces of meromorphic quadratic differentials in genus zero with our new observation that horizontal and vertical separatrix diagrams of integer quadratic differentials are asymptotically uncorrelated. The additional combinatorial constraints we impose in this article yield explicit polynomial asymptotics.

We prove in generic situations that the lattice in a tame type induced by the completed cohomology of a $U(3)$-arithmetic manifold is purely local, that is, only depends on the Galois representation at places above $p$. This is a generalization to $\text{GL}_{3}$ of the lattice conjecture of Breuil. In the process, we also prove the geometric Breuil–Mézard conjecture for (tamely) potentially crystalline deformation rings with Hodge–Tate weights $(2,1,0)$ as well as the Serre weight conjectures of Herzig [‘The weight in a Serre-type conjecture for tame $n$-dimensional Galois representations’, Duke Math. J. 149(1) (2009), 37–116] over an unramified field extending the results of Le et al. [‘Potentially crystalline deformation 3985 rings and Serre weight conjectures: shapes and shadows’, Invent. Math. 212(1) (2018), 1–107]. We also prove results in modular representation theory about lattices in Deligne–Lusztig representations for the group $\text{GL}_{3}(\mathbb{F}_{q})$.

For each $t\in \mathbb{R}$, we define the entire function

$$\begin{eqnarray}H_{t}(z):=\int _{0}^{\infty }e^{tu^{2}}\unicode[STIX]{x1D6F7}(u)\cos (zu)\,du,\end{eqnarray}$$

$\unicode[STIX]{x1D6F7}$

$$\begin{eqnarray}\unicode[STIX]{x1D6F7}(u):=\mathop{\sum }_{n=1}^{\infty }(2\unicode[STIX]{x1D70B}^{2}n^{4}e^{9u}-3\unicode[STIX]{x1D70B}n^{2}e^{5u})\exp (-\unicode[STIX]{x1D70B}n^{2}e^{4u}).\end{eqnarray}$$

$\unicode[STIX]{x1D6EC}$

$H_{t}$

$t\geqslant \unicode[STIX]{x1D6EC}$

$\unicode[STIX]{x1D6EC}\leqslant 0$

$\unicode[STIX]{x1D6EC}\geqslant 0$

$\unicode[STIX]{x1D6EC}<0$

$H_{t}$

$H_{t}$

$\unicode[STIX]{x1D6EC}<t\leqslant 0$

$H_{0}$

We completely describe the algebraic part of the rational cohomology of the Torelli groups of the manifolds $\#^{g}S^{n}\times S^{n}$ relative to a disc in a stable range, for $2n\geqslant 6$. Our calculation is also valid for $2n=2$ assuming that the rational cohomology groups of these Torelli groups are finite-dimensional in a stable range.

What is the minimum number of triangles in a graph of given order and size? Motivated by earlier results of Mantel and Turán, Rademacher solved the first nontrivial case of this problem in 1941. The problem was revived by Erdős in 1955; it is now known as the Erdős–Rademacher problem. After attracting much attention, it was solved asymptotically in a major breakthrough by Razborov in 2008. In this paper, we provide an exact solution for all large graphs whose edge density is bounded away from $1$, which in this range confirms a conjecture of Lovász and Simonovits from 1975. Furthermore, we give a description of the extremal graphs.

This paper completes the construction of $p$-adic $L$-functions for unitary groups. More precisely, in Harris, Li and Skinner [‘$p$-adic $L$-functions for unitary Shimura varieties. I. Construction of the Eisenstein measure’, Doc. Math.Extra Vol. (2006), 393–464 (electronic)], three of the authors proposed an approach to constructing such $p$-adic $L$-functions (Part I). Building on more recent results, including the first named author’s construction of Eisenstein measures and $p$-adic differential operators [Eischen, ‘A $p$-adic Eisenstein measure for unitary groups’, J. Reine Angew. Math.699 (2015), 111–142; ‘$p$-adic differential operators on automorphic forms on unitary groups’, Ann. Inst. Fourier (Grenoble)62(1) (2012), 177–243], Part II of the present paper provides the calculations of local $\unicode[STIX]{x1D701}$-integrals occurring in the Euler product (including at $p$). Part III of the present paper develops the formalism needed to pair Eisenstein measures with Hida families in the setting of the doubling method.

In their book Subgroup Growth, Lubotzky and Segal asked: What are the possible types of subgroup growth of the pro-$p$ group? In this paper, we construct certain extensions of the Grigorchuk group and the Gupta–Sidki groups, which have all possible types of subgroup growth between $n^{(\log n)^{2}}$ and $e^{n}$. Thus, we give an almost complete answer to Lubotzky and Segal’s question. In addition, we show that a class of pro-$p$ branch groups, including the Grigorchuk group and the Gupta–Sidki groups, all have subgroup growth type $n^{\log n}$.

Macdonald processes are measures on sequences of integer partitions built using the Cauchy summation identity for Macdonald symmetric functions. These measures are a useful tool to uncover the integrability of many probabilistic systems, including the Kardar–Parisi–Zhang (KPZ) equation and a number of other models in its universality class. In this paper, we develop the structural theory behind half-space variants of these models and the corresponding half-space Macdonald processes. These processes are built using a Littlewood summation identity instead of the Cauchy identity, and their analysis is considerably harder than their full-space counterparts.

We compute moments and Laplace transforms of observables for general half-space Macdonald measures. Introducing new dynamics preserving this class of measures, we relate them to various stochastic processes, in particular the log-gamma polymer in a half-quadrant (they are also related to the stochastic six-vertex model in a half-quadrant and the half-space ASEP). For the polymer model, we provide explicit integral formulas for the Laplace transform of the partition function. Nonrigorous saddle-point asymptotics yield convergence of the directed polymer free energy to either the Tracy–Widom (associated to the Gaussian orthogonal or symplectic ensemble) or the Gaussian distribution depending on the average size of weights on the boundary.

For a reductive group $G$ over a finite field, we show that the neutral block of its mixed Hecke category with a fixed monodromy under the torus action is monoidally equivalent to the mixed Hecke category of the corresponding endoscopic group $H$ with trivial monodromy. We also extend this equivalence to all blocks. We give two applications. One is a relationship between character sheaves on $G$ with a fixed semisimple parameter and unipotent character sheaves on the endoscopic group $H$, after passing to asymptotic versions. The other is a similar relationship between representations of $G(\mathbb{F}_{q})$ with a fixed semisimple parameter and unipotent representations of $H(\mathbb{F}_{q})$.

We prove that any simple planar travelling wave solution to the membrane equation in spatial dimension $d\geqslant 3$ with bounded spatial extent is globally nonlinearly stable under sufficiently small compactly supported perturbations, where the smallness depends on the size of the support of the perturbation as well as on the initial travelling wave profile. The main novelty of the argument is the lack of higher order peeling in our vector-field-based method. In particular, the higher order energies (in fact, all energies at order $2$ or higher) are allowed to grow polynomially (but in a controlled way) in time. This is in contrast with classical global stability arguments, where only the ‘top’ order energies used in the bootstrap argument exhibit growth, and reflects the fact that the background travelling wave solution has ‘infinite energy’ and the coefficients of the perturbation equation are not asymptotically Lorentz invariant. Nonetheless, we can prove that the perturbation converges to zero in $C^{2}$ by carefully analysing the nonlinear interactions and exposing a certain ‘vestigial’ null structure in the equations.

We prove that the $\infty $-category of $\mathrm{MGL} $-modules over any scheme is equivalent to the $\infty $-category of motivic spectra with finite syntomic transfers. Using the recognition principle for infinite $\mathbf{P} ^1$-loop spaces, we deduce that very effective $\mathrm{MGL} $-modules over a perfect field are equivalent to grouplike motivic spaces with finite syntomic transfers.

Along the way, we describe any motivic Thom spectrum built from virtual vector bundles of nonnegative rank in terms of the moduli stack of finite quasi-smooth derived schemes with the corresponding tangential structure. In particular, over a regular equicharacteristic base, we show that $\Omega ^\infty _{\mathbf{P} ^1}\mathrm{MGL} $ is the $\mathbf{A} ^1$-homotopy type of the moduli stack of virtual finite flat local complete intersections, and that for $n>0$, $\Omega ^\infty _{\mathbf{P} ^1} \Sigma ^n_{\mathbf{P} ^1} \mathrm{MGL} $ is the $\mathbf{A} ^1$-homotopy type of the moduli stack of finite quasi-smooth derived schemes of virtual dimension $-n$.

We prove that if the set of unordered pairs of real numbers is coloured by finitely many colours, there is a set of reals homeomorphic to the rationals whose pairs have at most two colours. Our proof uses large cardinals and verifies a conjecture of Galvin from the 1970s. We extend this result to an essentially optimal class of topological spaces in place of the reals.

Let $P_1,\dots ,P_m\in \mathbb{Z} [y]$ be polynomials with distinct degrees, each having zero constant term. We show that any subset A of $\{1,\dots ,N\}$ with no nontrivial progressions of the form $x,x+P_1(y),\dots ,x+P_m(y)$ has size $|A|\ll N/(\log \log {N})^{c_{P_1,\dots ,P_m}}$. Along the way, we prove a general result controlling weighted counts of polynomial progressions by Gowers norms.