Here, we present a first assessment of the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) “Grass-Cast Southwest,” which is a forecasting tool for rangeland aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) for the southwest region of the United States. Our results show that ANPP forecasts in early April were relatively close to the observation-based ANPP estimates in late May for all years evaluated (R = 0.6–0.9). The relatively high predictability of spring rangeland productivity in this region is likely because it is strongly driven by antecedent winter/early spring precipitation. Conversely, the first summer forecasts produced in June did not consistently predict the final observation-based ANPP estimates in late August (R = −0.5–0.7), likely because summer rangeland productivity in this region is highly dependent on variable, less predictable precipitation from the North American Monsoon (NAM). Antecedent El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices could be used to improve Grass-Cast Southwest performance in both the spring and summer. The ENSOJFM (January–March) index was significantly positively correlated with rangeland productivity during the spring season, whereas ENSOMAM (March–May) was significantly negatively correlated with rangeland productivity during the summer season.

Humanity is facing a confluence of existential environmental and material crises threatening socio-economic sustainability and the web of life that predicates human existence. At the same time, the erosion of spiritual, social, political and economic assemblages is undermining social cohesion, the fabric of democratic societies and humanity’s ability to change course. The dynamics in which humanity now finds itself has been termed the metacrisis, an embodiment of a mythical, all-consuming Moloch, emerging from collective akratic actions. Here, the consequences of the metacrisis for education are discussed from Rupert Read’s (2017) thrutopian perspective, which sidesteps the paralysis arising from dystopian laments and major-utopian fantasies. This paper argues for a thrutopian curriculum that enacts Read’s call for attention to the present and a focus on adaptation through resilience building, environmental care, positive relations and enjoyment of the possible. Such a curriculum confronts dystopian visions as no longer avoidable challenges while pulling utopian concepts from the permanent deferral inherent in major utopias down to minor-utopian realisations in the daily here-and-now of adaptive survival. The paper contends that thrutopian thinking can empower curriculum writing, teaching and environmental education and defuse the rise of debilitating crisis anxiety across the age spectrum.

The 1984 Helsinki Festival introduced Finnish and international audiences to contemporary Soviet composers via what was perhaps the largest repertory of contemporary Soviet music in the West up to that point. The week of concerts did not include any premieres, but several works by Schnittke, Gubaidulina, and Denisov that were performed during the festival were recent compositions that had received only a few performances at that point. And yet, the week was also a compromise, prominently featuring Khrennikov and other conservative composers. This article discusses the context and processes that led to the festival’s realisation and its relation to changes in the Soviet musical world at the time. In the past, Soviet authorities often torpedoed attempts to perform nonconformist works in the West and almost never allowed composers to travel. In Helsinki, Schnittke, Gubaidulina, and several other composers were allowed to attend.

In machine learning-based mortality models, interpretation methods are well established, and they can reveal structures resembling the age or time effects in traditional mortality models. However, in the reverse direction, using such traditional components to guide the initialization of a neural network remains highly challenging due to information loss during model interpretation. This study addresses this gap by exploring how components from pre-fitted traditional mortality models can be used to initialize neural networks, enabling structural information to be incorporated into a deep learning framework. We introduce Kolmogorov–Arnold Networks (KAN) and first construct two shallow models, KAN[2,1] and ARIMAKAN, to examine their applicability to mortality modeling. We then extend the Combined Actuarial Neural Network (CANN) into a KAN-based Actuarial Neural Network (KANN), in which classical model components calibrated via generalized nonlinear models or generalized additive models are naturally used for initialization. Three KANN variants, namely KANN[2,1], KANNLC, and KANNAPC, are proposed. In these models, neural networks assist in improving the accuracy of traditional models and help refine the original parameter estimates. All KANN-based models can also produce smooth mortality curves as well as smooth age, period, and cohort effects through simple regularization. Experiments on 34 populations demonstrate that KAN-based approaches achieve stable performance while balancing interpretability, smoothness, and predictive accuracy.

We determine the conditions for the reducibility of some parametrised families of quadratic and cubic polynomials over finite fields, and count the number of irreducible trinomials. The existence of a factorisation of these polynomials plays an important role in studying the finite groups of exceptional Lie types.

In this article, we consider the categorical symmetric Howe duality introduced by Khovanov, Lauda, Sussan, and Yonezawa. While originally defined from a purely diagrammatic perspective, this construction also has geometric and representation-theoretic interpretations, corresponding to certain perverse sheaves on spaces of quiver representations and the category of Gelfand–Tsetlin modules over $\mathfrak {gl}_n$. In particular, we show that the “deformed Webster algebras” discussed in [KLSY18] manifest a Koszul duality between blocks of the category of Gelfand–Tsetlin modules over $\mathfrak {gl}_n$, and the constructible sheaves on representations of a linear quiver invariant under a certain parabolic in the group that acts by changing bases. Furthermore, we show that this duality intertwines translation functors with a diagrammatic categorical action (generalizing that of [KLSY18]).

The integration of extra-robotic limbs or fingers to enhance and extend motor capabilities, particularly for grasping and manipulation, remains a major challenge. In contrast to the natural human hand, which achieves highly dexterous and adaptive grasping, the performance of current extra-robotic limbs or fingers is still markedly limited. Human hands can detect the onset of slip through tactile feedback originating from tactile receptors during the grasping process, enabling precise and automatic regulation of grip force. This grip force is scaled by the coefficient of friction between the contacting surface and the fingers. The frictional information is perceived by humans depending upon the slip happening between the finger and the object. This ability to perceive friction allows humans to apply just the right amount of force needed to maintain a secure grip, adjusting based on the weight of the object and the friction of the contact surface. Enhancing this capability in extra-robotic limbs or fingers used by humans is challenging. To address this challenge, this paper introduces a novel approach to communicate frictional information to users through encoded vibrotactile cues. These cues are conveyed on the onset of incipient slip, thus allowing the users to perceive the friction and ultimately use this information to increase the force to avoid dropping the object. In a 2-alternative forced-choice protocol, participants gripped and lifted a glass under three different frictional conditions, applying a normal force of 3.5 N. After reaching this force, the glass was gradually released to induce slip. During this slipping phase, vibrations scaled according to the static coefficient of friction were presented to users, reflecting the frictional conditions. The results suggested an accuracy of $94.53\pm 3.05$ ($\text{mean}\pm \text{SD}$) in perceiving frictional information upon lifting objects with varying friction. The results indicate the effectiveness of using vibrotactile feedback for sensory feedback, allowing users of extra-robotic limbs or fingers to perceive frictional information. This enables them to assess surface properties and adjust grip force according to the frictional conditions, enhancing their ability to grasp and manipulate objects more effectively.

This paper explores the lesser-known World War I memorials across the United States, hidden in cemeteries and behind closed doors, which were built by and for immigrant communities during the interwar years. These memorials tell a story of the cataclysmic loss World War I brought to a generation of new Americans. Proclaiming some aspects of their history and concealing other aspects, immigrant communities brought a nuanced response to World War I, a war that destroyed four empires, empires from which many of them had only recently come. They strove to honor both their homelands and their new lives in the United States. But by being concealed far from the larger American public, these memorials also revealed a distrust in popular interpretations of the war and what it had meant, interpretations which excluded immigrants from the national narrative and revealed a shaky grasp on international affairs when they did attempt to include foreign nationals. These memorials represent a cautious but determined effort by immigrant communities to claim a place in the United States.

This article investigates the ways children begin spelling from the start of grade 1 to the end of grade 2 in France. It presents the results of a longitudinal study with 676 children faced to the complexity of French orthography and asked to write words and sentences. The corpus was analysed with regard to phonogrammic and morphogrammic principles at work in the French orthography.

Based on the literature and the specific features of the French writing system, we hypothesized that both skill types would develop as early as Grade 1 of elementary school, with lexical spelling skills developing more rapidly. The findings suggest that the development of the phonogrammic, lexical morphogrammic, and grammatical skills of pupils may take into account different variables: consistency, frequency, syntactic context within which words are used, words that can feature different morphograms or not.

This article is focused on uncovering how authoritarian legal scholars in interwar Poland dealt with the issue of the ‘sovereign’. In most democratic constitutions, the ‘people’ are said to be sovereign. In a monarchy, the monarch is the sovereign. However, in an authoritarian system, the source of power can be much more vague. In the late 1920s and early 1930s, Polish legal scholars and politicians began designing a constitution that would solidify power gained after a 1926 coup d’etat. The ultimate result was a constitution ratified in April 1935 using strong-arm tactics. I argue that the 1935 constitution’s main authors used a unique combination of neo-monarchism and ‘social solidarism’ to justify a legal revolution. The first replaced democratic sovereignty with monarchism, embodied in a president who metaphysically represented the Polish nation. The other justified a socio-political system based on the principle that unity of the whole was more important than individual freedom. Thus they arrived at an authoritarianism that was both legal and ‘legitimate’. At the end of the article, I show the legacies of this thinking in the post-World War II communist era. Stalinist legal scholars in Poland used precisely the same language from the 1930s to justify the introduction of a new constitution in 1952.

Additive manufacturing (AM) enables the production of innovative, lightweight component designs in the aerospace industry. However, AM processes introduce new production feasibility considerations that must be addressed during product development. Therefore, engineers require effective design support and a new design approach to fully exploit AM’s capabilities while balancing its constraints. Through an interview study involving 20 AM aerospace industry professionals from nine countries and 10 organisations, this research identifies AM design opportunities and challenges and explores the design supports used to achieve and overcome them. The findings indicate that Laser Powder Bed Fusion is a predominant AM process in aeronautical and space applications. Further, the study identifies practical and computational design supports, describes how AM design is approached during product development and provides a model outlining a general AM design approach. Key AM design challenges identified include insufficient knowledge of material properties, limited sharing of design knowledge and a lack of understanding of the relationship between AM design and post-processing requirements. Consequently, skills gaps and educational needs for Design for AM in aerospace engineering are highlighted. Additionally, the study suggests that further AM aerospace standards, enhanced computer-aided engineering software for AM and artificial intelligence integration could improve design support.

Due to the widespread availability of effective antiretroviral therapy regimens, average lifespans of persons with HIV (PWH) in the United States have increased significantly in recent decades. In turn, the demographic profile of PWH has shifted. Older persons comprise an ever-increasing percentage of PWH, with this percentage expected to further increase in the coming years. This has profound implications for HIV treatment and care, as significant resources are required not only to manage HIV itself, but also associated age-related comorbidities and health conditions that occur in ageing PWH. Effective management of these challenges in the coming years requires accurate modelling of the PWH age structure. In the present work, we introduce several novel mathematical approaches related to this problem. We present a workflow combining a PDE model for the PWH population age structure, where publicly available HIV surveillance data are assimilated using the Ensemble Kalman Inversion algorithm. This procedure allows us to rigorously reconstruct the age-dependent mortality trends for PWH over the last several decades. To project future trends, we introduce and analyse a novel variant of the dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), nonnegative DMD. We show that nonnegative DMD provides physically consistent projections of mortality and HIV diagnosis while remaining purely data-driven, and not requiring additional assumptions. We then combine these elements to provide forecasts for future trends in PWDH mortality and demographic evolution in the coming years.

As the planet confronts an interconnected meta-crisis linked to natural, political, social, and psychological challenges, there are some pedagogical tendencies that should be challenged within university education. Drawing on the philosophical literature of the Ecological University, this article uses an eco-philosophical framework for considering mainstream university pedagogy. We emphasise that the increasing mental health challenges of so many young people at university is both a symptom and a feature of the meta-crisis and a key consideration for how we might respond as university educators. We argue that many of the existing neoliberal and liberal tendencies in university can be interpreted as “Miserable Pedagogies” — which typically fail to engage with the meta-crisis as a threat to the planet’s psychological, social, political, or natural ecosystems. We suggest that our “pedagogies of misery” need to be disrupted and radically contested with an ecological world-view we describe as “Anthropocene Intelligence.” After setting out the key features of Anthropocene Intelligence, we consider how an alternative teaching approach, used by one of the authors, reflects such an ecological worldview and potentially provides a basis for more meaningful and active ways of being and learning on this finite planet.

For decades, the Democratic Party has commanded the overwhelming support of racial and ethnic minority voters in the United States. While a majority of Black, Latino, and Asian American voters continue to vote for the Democrats, recent elections and polls have suggested that Republicans are making inroads. The 2024 Democratic electorate was whiter than it had been in 2012, even though the US has become more racially diverse in that same period. There has been much speculation in the media over Donald Trump’s apparent appeal to some racial and ethnic minority voters, but not enough attention has been given to differences between and within racial and ethnic minority groups. This article emphasizes key differences. African Americans have remained more loyal to the Democratic Party than Latino and Asian American electorates. The article then examines class and ideological differences within racial and ethnic groups. It finds that while working-class and conservative Latinos and Asian Americans have joined the Republican fold, the same cannot be said to the same extent for working-class or conservative African Americans. Intergenerational partisan socialization is identified as a key difference.

Patients find the term ‘borderline personality disorder’ offensive and, from a list of alternative labels, prefer ‘emotional intensity disorder’. It is suggested that any term will take on a pejorative connotation if professional attitudes do not change as well; and that this requires an alteration in the environment in which professionals operate. This should not look so strongly to compulsion to prevent suicide, but should allow therapeutic relationships to flourish. Blaming clinicians for incidents when they have few choices is counterproductive. The problem reflects a systemic impatience with patients who get better slowly or not at all.

Easy Language (EL) presents information in a simplified way and benefits people who have difficulty understanding standard language. The present study evaluates the effects of visual support inclusion, as it is a recurring recommendation in EL guidelines. We examined 52 adults (23 men and 29 women; mean age of 39.9; 26 with intellectual disabilities [ID], 26 neurotypical) in a mixed design study. They read EL texts that presented either no visual support, photographs or illustrations. Their eye movements were recorded, and they answered comprehension, text difficulty and style preference questions. The inclusion of visual support had no effect on comprehension, nor did the type of visual support (photographs/illustrations). The group (ID/neurotypical) and the type of visual support also showed no effects on the perceived difficulty of the text. Neurotypical participants showed a preference for illustrations. Photographs may be more difficult to interpret than illustrations due to longer fixations and shorter saccades in both groups. The group with an ID showed more and longer fixations, especially on text and whitespace, while the neurotypical group tended to explore the image more. Results prompt a discussion on the potential improvements of EL guidelines and highlight the need for similar empirical studies in the area.

Google Trends is used in research and surveillance as a proxy for community infection incidence. Signals are difficult to validate, as most surveillance biases towards severe outcomes and certain demographics.

Using Winter COVID-19 Infection Study (WCIS) data in England, symptom prevalence is estimated via generalized additive model with multilevel-regression and poststratification. Symptom duration was estimated using interval censored time delay modelling, converting prevalence to incidence. Google Trends and WCIS incidence and growth rates were compared using cross-correlation.

Google Trends and WCIS agreement varied by symptom and age group. The national maximum growth rate cross-correlation for sore throat was 0.81, with 90% prediction intervals of [0.69, 0.90]. Google Trends growth rates generally lagged the WCIS growth rates across symptoms (cough: −5.0 days [−8.0, 0.0], fever: −3.0 days [−6.0, 1.0], loss of smell: −9.0 days [−13, −3.0], shortness of breath: −12 days [−16, −5.0], and sore throat: −4.0 days [−5.0, −2.0]).

This work shows Google Trends and community symptom incidence can align, although substantial variation between symptoms and age groups exists, underscoring utility in predicting other surveillance indicators.