Numerous studies show an association between military pressures and fiscal development, often based on cross-national correlations between wars and fiscal outcomes (e.g., tax ratios). However, investments in fiscal capacity may take time to yield higher tax revenues, obscuring the importance of factors that contributed to those investments. This article shifts attention from fiscal outcomes to the policymaking process. Using text-as-data techniques to analyse British parliamentary debates from 1803 to 1913, it offers new micro-level evidence of the relationship between military pressures and fiscal policymaking in the United Kingdom during the long 19th century. Our analyses show that military issues were associated with higher fiscal salience and lower contestation in tax debates. Qualitative analyses indicate that military issues were recurrently invoked to support the renewal of the personal income tax despite attempts to repeal it, confirming the close link between military and fiscal issues in shaping the modern British fiscal state.

This study analyses the dynamics of the global rare earth element market, with a focus on China’s dominant role as the primary supplier, which is crucial for the energy transition and digitalization. Using a game-theoretic approach, the research examines a potential duopoly market structure that may emerge over time, as well as potential shifts in supply from China to other countries in this scenario. It considers China’s low marginal costs and factors such as resource extraction and discoveries. Additionally, the study examines the strategic market interactions, the role of technological advancements, and policy support in shaping market outcomes. The methodology assumes that agents have limited foresight and use a learned value function to strategically assess outcomes based on their own and others’ actions, while accounting for environmental constraints.

This study explores the gender wage gap in Türkiye between 2013 and 2022 using a novel 10-year panel dataset constructed with administrative data compiled for the first time in Türkiye, which includes approximately 14 million full-year workers in 360 subgroups by demographic, sectoral, and occupational factors. The analysis examines the long-term effects of demographic factors, such as age, education, and marital status, as well as the work-related factors, including occupation and employment sector, on the gender wage gap. The findings reveal that men working full-time in formal employment earn 10.1% more than women in Türkiye, and the study shows evidence of how the gender wage gap varies across different demographic groups. The results obtained emphasise the significant roles of marital status, occupation, age, and sector in explaining the wage differential, while education is shown not have a meaningful long-term impact on the wage gap. Moreover, contrary to expectations, the study confirms that occupational experience, the aging labour force, and increased female labour force participation contribute to the widening of the gender wage gap. These findings underline the need for targeted economic and social policies to address gender-based wage differences in a country where the labour force participation of women has traditionally been outstandingly low. This study aims to contribute to the literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of a large-scale dataset that offers new insights into gender wage differences.

Buchak’s risk-weighted expected utility considers not just the probability of an outcome, but also the probability of getting a strictly better outcome, when weighting the contribution that outcome gives to the evaluation of a gamble. It uses a risk-weighting function $R$ sending probabilities in $\left[ {0,1} \right]$ to decision weights $\left[ {0,1} \right]$. I adapt this to allow weights in any real interval. Finite intervals yield nothing new, but if the interval is infinite, then the resulting rule can incorporate maximin or maximax preferences (or both!) while still satisfying stochastic dominance. There are advantages to working with marginal risk-weighting, $R$’s derivative, $r$.

We augment an overlapping generations endogenous credit cycle model with environmental externalities and two regulatory authorities to study how fiscal and financial environmental regulation together shape environmental quality, macroeconomic stability, and income distribution. Environmental quality depends on pollution from the brown sector, regulated either through environmental haircuts on collateral or via tax-financed abatement and environmental improvements. We find that haircuts and taxes affect emissions, income distribution, and system stability in distinct ways, with interaction effects that create trade-offs between environmental outcomes and macroeconomic stability. Compared to scenarios with only financial regulation, introducing an environmental tax maintains similar environmental quality but achieves higher aggregate income and capital per worker. However, we uncover intergenerational trade-offs as environmental regulation improves environmental quality and raises incomes for younger agents and investors but lowers and destabilizes the returns of older generations reliant on capital income.

Do large language models (LLMs) – such as ChatGPT-3.5 Turbo, ChatGPT-4.0, and Gemini 1.0 Pro, and DeepSeek-R1 – simulate human behavior in the context of the Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD) game with varying stake sizes? Through a replication of Yamagishi et al. (2016) ‘Study 2,’ we investigate this question, examining LLM responses to different payoff stakes and the influence of stake order on cooperation rates. We find that LLMs do not mirror the inverse relationship between stake size and cooperation found in the study. Rather, some models (DeepSeek-R1 and ChatGPT-4.0) almost wholly defect, while others (ChatGPT-3.5 Turbo and Gemini 1.0 Pro) mirror human behavior only under very specific circumstances. LLMs demonstrate sensitivity to framing and order effects, implying the need for cautious application of LLMs in behavioral research.

We develop a capital structure model in which firms differ in their ability to adjust output prices. Firms with inflexible prices are more exposed to nominal and real shocks, leading to lower leverage, shorter debt maturity, higher cost of debt, tighter covenants, and greater precautionary cash holdings. Shocks to cash flow volatility raise the cost of debt more for firms with less pricing flexibility. We empirically confirm these predictions: Firms with inflexible prices experience significantly larger increases in credit spreads following monetary policy shocks and the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, especially when they face high preshock rollover risk.

We show that the decision to go public is influenced by spatial variation in the supply of equity financing. We measure the amount of capital of equity investors in each U.S. region and document that the incidence of initial public offerings (IPOs) by intangible-intensive resident firms increases significantly when regional equity capital is abundant. Using a novel empirical strategy and hand-collected data on out-of-state pension flows, we confirm that our findings are not due to underlying regional factors.

The Reconstruction Finance Corporation and Public Works Administration loaned 50 U.S. railroads over $1.1 billion between 1932 and 1939. The government’s goal was to increase employment and decrease the likelihood of bond defaults. Bailouts appear to have had little effect on employment, but we estimate that they did increase the average wage of railroad employees. Bailouts are estimated to have reduced firm debt, but did not significantly impact bond default. We find some evidence that manufacturing firms located close to railroads benefited from bailout spillovers.

How the role of health technology assessment (HTA) agencies in relation to medical technologies (MedTech) is framed in the literature reflects and influences governance, shaping perceptions and guiding decisions. We identify different academic discourses to advance MedTech policy debates, in light of several factors potentially influencing this role. This is the first time that discourse on the role of HTA agencies in relation to MedTech has been reviewed. We conducted a comprehensive search, screened for eligibility, and synthesised findings using discourse analysis. 119 articles were included, from which 5 discourses were constructed. The first discourse describes the HTA agency as an independent evaluator of appropriate evidence for all health technologies. The second discourse explicitly categorises MedTech as separate from pharmaceuticals and expands the role of evaluator to include encouraging evidence generation for MedTech. The third discourse moves away from the role of independent evaluator and describes the HTA agency as a convenor of all stakeholder perspectives, using an experimental approach. The fourth and fifth discourses critically reflect on the role of HTA agencies, the fourth on their level of normative reflection and the fifth on their level of nuanced, clinical expertise. We conclude with recommendations for policy and research.

The role of healthcare provider ownership in shaping health system performance remains contested. An umbrella review was conducted to synthesise evidence on the relationship between healthcare provider ownership and performance in high-income countries. Systematic reviews were included that examined performance of healthcare providers based on ownership status. Searches yielded 1,862 results, with 31 systematic reviews meeting the inclusion criteria, and one further systematic review identified through grey literature searches. Following the exclusion of 10 reviews classified as low-quality and two previous umbrella reviews both published in 2014, 20 reviews were eligible for data extraction and synthesis. Inconsistent evidence was found across reviews between healthcare provider ownership and several performance indicators including health outcomes, technical efficiency, and patient satisfaction. Private hospitals tend to serve wealthier patients, select less complex or costly patients, and charge higher payments for care than public comparators. Private for-profit (FP) providers of hospital and long-term care generally had poorer workforce outcomes than private not-for-profit or public providers, including reduced staffing levels, higher workloads, and lower job satisfaction. Private PF hospitals and nursing homes had improved financial performance based on revenues or profit margins. Our findings underscore the need for nuanced regulatory responses to the expansion of private FP provision within publicly funded systems.

What are the benefits of access to the bond market for unlisted firms, and how does it affect their bank lending conditions? Using a regulatory reform that allowed unlisted firms to issue minibonds, we address these questions comparing new bank loans to issuers with concurrent loans to matched non-issuers. After the first minibond issuance, issuers obtain lower interest rates on bank loans of similar maturity, largely reflecting a shift in the seniority structure of corporate debt, and reduce the use of bank loans while increasing their total financial debt. They also increase turnover, total and fixed assets, particularly intangible assets.

This paper uses a novel georeferenced cross-sectional dataset to explore which factors influenced the funding of hospitals and dispensaries in colonial India, emphasizing land tenure systems as a cause of regional variation. Where land was owned by cultivators, healthcare facilities received more resources from local public bodies and were better funded compared to regions where land was owned by landlords. In contrast, in landlord regions they received more private donations and subscriptions from Indians.

Using the Irish experience of public investment and fiscal policy management over the last 25 years, we identify five core lessons. These concern (1) the need for sustained investment effort even when facing tough choices regarding public expenditure, (2) the importance of assessing the adequacy of public capital, (3) counter-cyclicality as an important principle of public investment, (4) crowding-in private investment and (5) the challenge for public investment caused by longer-term challenges such as the necessary climate transition. We also propose two overarching design suggestions for fiscal policy and investment management frameworks.

In this article, I place the blockchain within competing interpretations of the present as either an emerging technofeudal mode of production, or as a relatively unchanged capitalism. Drawing on a wide literature on zones – spaces in nation-states where the usual rules do not apply – I highlight three reconfigurations of territory, authority, and rights (TAR) associated with the blockchain today. These are: (1) the transnational expansion of crypto-related practices; (2) the national regulation and legitimation of cryptoassets; and (3) the reemergence of a liberal discourse linking human rights to the global exchange of private property. Through these examples, I demonstrate how the blockchain is part of a broader reshaping of accumulation and legal legitimation, mirroring the emergence of capitalism and the nation-state, but on a global scale. I conclude by arguing against the position that the reemergence of fascism is a red herring distracting us from the coming technofeudalism; instead, I claim that technofeudalism obscures the links between today’s techno-authoritarian shift and the enforcement of global corporate private property relations.