We report the age-specific incidence and prevalence of dementia and the cumulative lifetime risk of dementia in a prospective cohort study of men who qualified for air crew training in the Second World War. The time frame of the analyses was from 1948 to 2024. Of the 3983 participants, 3960 died, 7 were lost to follow-up and 570 were diagnosed with dementia. The incidence of dementia was low prior to the age of 80 but increased markedly with age thereafter. The prevalence of dementia was also very closely related to age. There was a high competing risk of death.

The Wright–Fisher model, originating in Wright (1931) is one of the canonical probabilistic models used in mathematical population genetics to study how genetic type frequencies evolve in time. In this paper we bound the rate of convergence of the stationary distribution for a finite population Wright–Fisher Markov chain with parent-independent mutation to the Dirichlet distribution. Our result improves the rate of convergence established in Gan et al. (2017) from $\mathrm{O}(1/\sqrt{N})$ to $\mathrm{O}(1/N)$. The results are derived using Stein’s method, in particular, the prelimit generator comparison method.

This paper investigates both conditional and unconditional convergence in labor productivity within the manufacturing industries of the Eurozone over the period 1963 – 2018. We employ two innovative models: constant and varying-coefficient hierarchical panel data convergence regression models, each equipped with two sets of latent factor structures—one comprising global factors and the other industry-specific factors. These models offer distinct advantages, allowing for both global and industry-specific cross-sectional dependencies and permitting parameter heterogeneity across individual industries. Our findings reveal both conditional and unconditional convergence across the manufacturing industry as a whole, as well as among the majority of the 23 sub-manufacturing industries at the ISIC two-digit level. Moreover, we observe significant variation in convergence dynamics among these sub-manufacturing industries. Robustness checks, performed across different subperiods, confirm the reliability of our results. Furthermore, a comparison of our model’s outcomes with those of two alternative models provides additional support for our conclusions.

This article examines an overlooked period of CIA history: the directorship of William Raborn. While previous scholarship points to Raborn being a lacklustre DCI, little substantial discussion has been held on the reasons why he struggled so much. This article proposes that Raborn's problems were due to his inability to assimilate to the agency's organizational culture, with his willingness to supply “intelligence to please” and his lack of worldliness being key. Subsequently, Raborn's tenure damaged both the reputation and the efficacy of the CIA during the mid-1960s, and led to increasing presidential neglect and enhanced scrutiny of their operations.

A conjecture in Birds 786–8.

This article examines a report in Dio of a vow made by Augustus in response to a prophecy. It establishes the setting as a festival for the Magna Mater rather than ludi magni, as has recently been suggested. Based on calendar entries and a passage from Ovid, the article then associates the content of the vow with altars of Ceres and Ops established in 7 c.e.

This paper investigates structural changes in the parameters of first-order autoregressive (AR) models by analyzing the edge eigenvalues of the precision matrices. Specifically, edge eigenvalues in the precision matrix are observed if and only if there is a structural change in the AR coefficients. We show that these edge eigenvalues correspond to the zeros of a determinantal equation. Additionally, we propose a consistent estimator for detecting outliers within the panel time series framework, supported by numerical experiments.

Climate change-related environmental harms have been observed to negatively affect mental health. While policymakers and courts around the world widely recognise the impacts of climate change on physical heath as potentially endangering human rights, the implications of climate change for mental health have received significantly less attention. This paper analyzed five cases that challenged national response to climate change and the resulting impacts on mental health before four different international human rights protection bodies. Four out of these five cases were dismissed either because the petitioners did not seek prior action before the national authorities, or because their claims were deemed unsubstantiated. Despite these outcomes, the protection bodies’ treatment of these petitions as well as various other ongoing developments show that the human rights approach to climate change and mental health is gradually emerging at the international and domestic levels, but it is still in its early days and there are various challenges to it.

This paper contributes to an emerging discussion in social policy scholarship concerning inequality and the potential of regulation targeting the richest in society. It focuses on public support for maximum income, a policy understood as ‘eco-social’ due to its potential to address the dual crises of increasing inequality and the climate emergency. Based on fifty qualitative interviews conducted in Belgium, the study aims to understand how people reason about the idea of capping the maximum level of income and whether there is potential to increase public support depending on how the policies are designed. The proposal of maximum income prompts rather polarised reactions among supporters and opponents. We identify four distinctive positions: the egalitarian, the supporter of redistribution, the meritocrat and the libertarian. While they are characterised by ideological divergence, both the proponents and opponents of maximum income share concerns about the implementation of such a policy. Using vignettes of differently designed proposals for maximum income, the study also identifies several trade-offs that should be considered when designing a maximum income policy that can secure broad public support.

Let X be a smooth threefold over an algebraically closed field of positive characteristic. We prove that an arbitrary flop of X is smooth. To this end, we study Gorenstein curves of genus one and two-dimensional elliptic singularities defined over imperfect fields.

In 1920, the League of Nations implemented the first modern international zones in Europe. While historians have largely presented international zones as unworkable peace-making solutions devoid of resident support, this article draws attention to those figures who saw in zones an opportunity to cash in on the end of empire. It follows the case of Ludwig Noé–a preeminent industrialist in the Free City of Danzig–who was employed to run the city’s imperial shipyard. Noé’s transformation of the Danzig shipyard into a successful international concern demonstrated the economic advantages that internationalisation could facilitate and chimed with calls to exploit the zone further by converting it into a manufacturing free port. The article contributes, therefore, to a growing literature concerned with how abstract international visions were realized locally and independently, and who, ultimately, made internationalism work in the 1920s.

Despite societal shifts in attitudes towards gender and sexuality, LGBTQ+ individuals continue to experience multiple forms of labour-market disadvantage – including greater unemployment, lower job satisfaction, and slower career progression. However, existing scholarship has paid little attention to the comparative employment conditions of LGBTQ+ and non-LGBTQ+ individuals. Leveraging unique data from a large, Australian, employer-employee dataset (2024 AWEI Employee Survey), we fill this knowledge gap by examining the relationships between LGBTQ+ status, non-standard employment (NSE), and workplace well-being. Consistent with our theoretical expectations, we provide novel empirical evidence of the ‘double whammy’ faced by LGBTQ+ employees in relation to NSE. On the one hand, LGBTQ+ employees are more likely to be in certain forms of NSE than non-LGBTQ+ employees; on the other, their workplace well-being is more negatively impacted by these employment arrangements. These findings bear important lessons for policy and practice, indicating that closing the gap between LGBTQ+ and non-LGBTQ+ workers requires careful consideration of their employment arrangements and the circumstances that surround them.

This study examined associations between paternal, maternal, and dual-parental attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms and child socioemotional functioning over the first two years of life, combined and separated by child sex. The sample included mothers (N = 3,207) and fathers (N = 3,211) from a prospective cohort in Canada. Parents completed the Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale within two weeks of childbirth. Children’s socioemotional functioning was assessed using the ASQ-SE at 6 months and the BITSEA at 12, 18, and 24 months. Paternal and maternal ADHD symptoms were associated with problems in child socioemotional development in the first two years of life, with significant differences based on parent and child sex. Paternal ADHD symptoms were associated with more socioemotional difficulties in boys (aOR 1.68, 95% CI 1.13–2.51) and fewer socioemotional difficulties in girls, while maternal ADHD symptoms were associated with more socioemotional problems in girls (aOR 2.09, 95% CI 1.24–3.52) and the entire sample, including both boys and girls, between 12 and 24 months. Dual-parental ADHD symptoms had the largest effect on socioemotional development (OR 4.43, 95% CI 1.14–17.16). Our findings provide evidence that exposure to paternal and maternal ADHD symptoms, especially when both parents exhibit symptoms, is associated with worse socioemotional outcomes during early childhood.

This study examines the factors that influence the use of declination powers by U.S. Attorney Offices (USAO) in Indian Country (IC) cases. The research aims to shed light on the tribal law enforcement factors that influence the actions of USAOs in IC cases. The study utilizes the “National Caseload Data” to identify crimes that occurred in IC and whether the USAO declined to prosecute a case. The findings suggest tribes with larger law enforcement forces and external funding to improve their criminal justice system have significantly lower rates of declination. The study also examines the effects of the Tribal Law and Order Act (TLOA) on the rates of declination of IC cases. The findings suggest there are clear differences in these effects as a function of the passage of TLOA. Overall, this study contributes to the ongoing discourse on the challenges and opportunities in the criminal justice system in IC.

Let $\pi$ be an irreducible cuspidal automorphic representation of ${\mathrm{GL}}_n(\mathbb{A}_{\mathbb{Q}})$ with associated L-function $L(s, \pi)$. We study the behaviour of the partial Euler product of $L(s, \pi)$ at the centre of the critical strip. Under the assumption of the Generalised Riemann Hypothesis for $L(s, \pi)$ in conjunction with the Ramanujan–Petersson conjecture as necessary, we establish an asymptotic, off a set of finite logarithmic measure, for the partial Euler product at the central point, which confirms a conjecture of Kurokawa (2012). As an application, we obtain results towards Chebyshev’s bias in the recently proposed framework of Aoki–Koyama (2023).

I study the effect of educational policy in the host economy on human capital accumulation and growth. The analysis is performed in a two-country growth model with endogenous fertility. I show that providing additional free educational services for immigrant children can increase the attractiveness of migration for less skilled individuals, which can outweigh the positive effect of this policy on the acquisition of human capital. In contrast, imposing taxes on immigrants in the host country reduces low-skilled immigration flows and has the potential to promote human capital accumulation if the resulting revenues are channeled into educational subsidies.