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Concentration in animal-based protein industries in the United States continues to garner the interest of policymakers, researchers, and consumers alike. We assess the impacts of industry concentration on animal productivity and downstream prices in the US broiler chicken industry between 1991 and 2019. We compile a dataset that matches annual, plant-level information on ownership and sales for all poultry processing facilities in the United States with market-level wholesale composite prices and bird yields. Consolidation over the last three decades has greatly contributed to industry concentration, leading to higher wholesale composite broiler prices (16.3%) and gains in animal productivity (2.4%).
What factors contribute to closing the turnout gender gap after female enfranchisement? In the wake of franchise expansion, we test whether being a poll officer—and hence being exposed to election management—boosted the politicisation and mobilisation of women. In the context of the Spanish Second Republic (1931–1939), we exploit a lottery that assigned recently enfranchised women to be poll officers in the first election women were allowed to vote (1933). We use an original individual-level panel database and show that women randomly selected as polling officers were as likely to participate in subsequent elections than men, while the gender turnout gap persisted among the rest. Further analyses suggest that being poll officers made women more receptive to political organisations mobilisation strategies, and their presence had positive externalities by encouraging other women to participate. Our findings highlight the potential benefits of exposure to election engineering among groups previously excluded or less engaged with democracy.
The concept of ritual has been all too loosely applied to violence and atrocity with assumptions of repetitiveness, mythic symbolism, and religious overtones. This paper examines a selection of modern cases of atrocity for specific ritual elements: attention to body and spaces as frames for meaning; a prescripted mode of action; and performative enaction of a new millennial or transgressive order. Focal cases include American lynching (nineteenth–twentieth centuries) and militia atrocities in Sierra Leone and Liberia (1990s), while examples of gendered atrocity in ritualized forms (perpetrated by Bosnian Serbs and the Islamic State) are broached in the conclusion. Ritualization is not typical to modern atrocities but allows perpetrating groups to experience meaningfulness in the violent acts they assemble, often in situations of crisis.
A growing number of studies focus on how governments can manage audience costs when they want to back down from international crises. In line with previous studies, especially Kohama et al. (2024), this paper argues that the Japanese government can use a variety of reasons to justify its decisions to de-escalate while minimizing domestic audience costs. I found that governments can reduce audience costs using several rhetorical devices, reinforcing the current understanding of audience costs. However, my design, which presented a fait accompli scenario by China against Japan, yielded significantly different results regarding audience costs compared to previous studies on the subject. Specifically, the results of this study indicate that the public might not value economic development following a fait accompli as highly as in less severe scenarios. The results also suggest that leaders might have a harder time backing down after a loss of territory compared to other forms of provocation.
This study aimed to highlight the roles of different minerals, serum metabolites, and hormones related to reproductive health of cattle as these have a significant role in cattle production and reproduction. Minerals are known for their contribution to several physiological processes such as cell formation and are paramount for physiological functions of vitamins, enzymes, and hormones. Evaluations of serum metabolites are good indicators of disease diagnosis and nutritional status in animals. Hormonal imbalance before and during pregnancy can negatively impact an overall bovine reproductive health. Minerals are important for reproduction, serum metabolites are a reliable indicator as their changes have been related to many disorders in reproduction, and hormones are significant indicators in cows presenting different reproductive conditions.
Forty years into Botswana’s AIDS epidemic, amidst persistently low rates of marriage across southern Africa, an unexpected uptick in weddings appears to be afoot. Young people orphaned in the worst years of the epidemic are crafting creative paths to marriage where—and perhaps because—their parents could not. Taking the lead of a pastor’s assertion that the wife is mother of her husband, I suggest these conjugal creativities turn on an understanding of marriage as an intergenerational relationship. Casting marriage in intergenerational terms is an act of ethical (re)imagination that creates experimental possibilities for reworking personhood, pasts, and futures in ways that respond closely to the specific crises and loss the AIDS epidemic brought to Botswana. This experimentation is highly unpredictable and may reproduce the crisis and loss to which it responds; the multivalences of marriage-as-motherhood can be sources of failure and violence, as well as innovation and life. But it also recuperates and reorients intergenerational relationships, retrospectively and prospectively, regenerating persons and relations, in time. While different crises might invite different sorts of ethical re-imagination, marriage gives us a novel perspective on how people live with, and through, times of crisis. And marriage emerges as a crucial if often overlooked practice by which social change is not only managed but sought and produced.
To evaluate the prognostic utility of Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) scores in predicting the death of adults with advanced cancer.
Methods
A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted. Six databases were searched for articles published from inception till 16 February 2024. Observational studies reporting time-to-event outcomes of PPI scores used in any setting, timing and score cutoffs were eligible. Participants were adults with advanced cancer residing in any setting. Random effects meta-analysis was used to pool hazard, risk, or odds ratios. Findings were narratively synthesized when meta-analysis was not possible.
Results
Twenty-three studies (n = 11,235 patients) were included. All meta-analyses found that higher PPI scores or risk categories were significantly associated with death and, similarly, in most narratively synthesized studies. PPI > 6 vs PPI ≤ 4 (pooled adjusted HR = 5.42, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 2.01–14.59, p = 0.0009; pooled unadjusted HR = 5.05, 95% CI 4.10–6.17, p < 0.00001), 4 < PPI ≤ 6 vs PPI ≤ 4 (pooled adjusted HR = 2.04, 95% CI 1.30–3.21, p = 0.002), PPI ≥ 6 vs PPI < 6 (pooled adjusted HR = 2.52, 95% CI 1.39–4.58, p = 0.005), PPI ≤ 4 vs PPI > 6 for predicting inpatient death (unadjusted RR = 3.48, 95% CI 2.46–4.91, p < 0.00001), and PPI as a continuous variable (pooled unadjusted HR = 1.30, 95% CI 1.22–1.38, p < 0.00001) were significant predictors for mortality. Changes in PPI scores may also be useful as a prognostic factor.
Significance of results
A higher PPI score is likely an independent prognostic factor for an increased risk of death, but more research is needed to validate the risk groups as defined by the original development study. Meta-analysis results need to be interpreted cautiously, as only 2–4 studies were included in each analysis. Clinicians and researchers may find this useful for guiding decision-making regarding the suitability of curative and/or palliative treatments and clinical trial design.
The magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibrium and stability properties of the Infinity Two fusion pilot plant baseline plasma physics design are presented. The configuration is a four-field period, aspect ratio $A = 10$ quasi-isodynamic stellarator optimised for excellent confinement at elevated density and high magnetic field $B = 9\,T$. Magnetic surfaces exist in the plasma core in vacuum and retain good equilibrium surface integrity from vacuum to an operational $\beta = 1.6 \,\%$, the ratio of the volume average of the plasma and magnetic pressures, corresponding to $800\ \textrm{MW}$ deuterium–tritium fusion operation. Neoclassical calculations show that a self-consistent bootstrap current of the order of ${\sim} 1\ \textrm{kA}$ slightly increases the rotational transform profile by less than 0.001. The configuration has a magnetic well across its entire radius. From vacuum to the operating point, the configuration exhibits good ballooning stability characteristics, exhibits good Mercier stability across most of its minor radius and it is stable against global low-n MHD instabilities up to $\beta = 3.2\,\%$.
By the reason that mathematical analysis is not feasible for practical control of buildings, decentralized control (DC) and fuzzy control (FC) technologies were introduced to optimize the control problem of high-rise building (HRB) structures. For the control problem of HRB structures, magnetorheological fluid dampers (MRFDs) were introduced to optimize the lateral stress problem of each floor, and the influence of different output variables on FC was compared. In the analysis of fuzzy DC experiments, there were significant differences in the impact of different structural controls (SCs) on building acceleration. In the comparison of the interstory displacement (ISD) time history of the lower concrete structure, the maximum ISD value without control was -12 cm in the nineth second, −7 cm in the nineth second of LQR (linear quadratic regularization) control, and -6 cm in the FC. The proposed biomedical evolutionary technology had better SC effects in practical scenarios, with better safety and stability. The research was mainly based on FC controller technology, and in the future, updated IT2FL (interval type2 fuzzy logic) control technology can be adopted. At the same time, machine learning models are used to optimize parameter problems and improve the control effect of concrete structures. Therefore, fluid dampers help reduce vibrations caused by external earthquakes and other dynamic loads. By dampening devices, fluid dampers enhance the overall stability of the building by improving comfort levels. By allowing for lighter structural designs, fluid dampers can reduce the amount of material needed for construction, leading to cost savings. With reduced vibrations and stresses, there may be fewer maintenance issues over time. Fluid dampers can be designed for various types of structures and can be used in conjunction with other damping systems, making them flexible solutions for different engineering challenges. The future study can be effectively combined with base isolation systems to further improve a building’s resilience against seismic forces.
This article investigates geosocial patterns of marriage strategies among the leadership of Hasidism, arguably the most prominent socio-religious movement of modern Jewry, known for its unique network of charismatic leaders organized in hereditary dynasties. The article’s core premise is that grasping the network structure of the Hasidic movement’s dynasties, which has been under-researched, is crucial to understanding the movement’s social and cultural dynamics. The study employs social network analysis (SNA) and spatial analysis to examine marital unions among these leaders (2,375 cases), from the early stages of the movement in the eighteenth century until the early twenty-first century. The article explains, for the first time, how Hasidic dynasties expanded, eroded, and negotiated their status within the network of other dynasties. More specifically, we analyze the position of the dynasties within a wider context of social and spatial interconnection patterns, the significance of endogamy, the impact of territorial factors on marriage preferences, and the creation of dynastic clusters. A significant conclusion of this article is that, rather than a set of unrelated dynasties, Hasidic leadership gradually became a web of interconnected families with explicable patterns of organization. These findings can help explain historical processes in Hasidism, such as its persistence through historical crises. It can also illuminate leadership processes in other religions in which, as in Hasidism, the social structure of charismatic leadership is based on clans.
Bargaining scholars predict rapid power shifts cause preventive war. But cases with rapidly shifting power often remain peaceful. To explain the dogs that don’t bark, we introduce instant, repeated, costly militarization into Powell’s (1999) conventional-weapons power transition model. First, we rationalize preventive war during long, slow, complete-information power shifts. Second, we find that where past research into conventional shifts predicts war, a grand bargain backed by the decliner’s threat of war emerges as a second equilibrium. Because war and a grand bargain both prevent power from shifting, declining powers deploy them under the same conditions. Our grand bargain survives war-causing hazards, and some latent shifts. It occurs after incremental militarization causes repeated appeasement-like concessions, and when power shifts are instant, slow or fast, and perfectly observed; suggesting conventional shifts induce grand bargains under surprising conditions. The Great Game’s end fits our grand bargain, but that British elites seriously considered war.
Relationships between broiler cut prices are evolving as production and consumer preferences change. Stronger price relationships are observed within white and dark meats categories than between them. This can be attributed to the unique substitutability of cuts within categories, while weaker relationships between categories arising from their roles, white meats are predominantly consumed domestically, while dark meats are more oriented towards export. The analysis also shows that own price is the main driver of price variation, suggesting that treating chicken as a single category may be misleading. Considering different cuts may offer valuable insights into economic/market analysis for other meats.
Atypical porcine pestivirus (APPeV) is a pestivirus affecting pigs, notably causing high mortality in piglets due to neurological issues that impair suckling. This study reviews global literature from 2015 to March 2024, assessing APPeV prevalence. Analysing 40 relevant articles, it finds APPeV widely distributed across Europe, South America, North America, and Asia, with minimal presence in Africa and Australia. The scarcity in these regions might be due to geographical isolation, environmental factors, limited surveillance, diagnostics, or under-reporting. China leads in APPeV prevalence reports, followed by the USA, Germany, Sweden, and other countries. The main diagnostic methods are quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) and RT-PCR, using tissue and serum samples. APPeV detection in the serum of boars and wild boars suggests possible persistent infections, indicating their role in APPeV epidemiology. Given the global outbreaks, particularly of congenital tremor (CT), the study calls for expanded research, especially in under-studied regions like Africa and Australia, focusing on healthy pigs, CT-affected piglets, and boars to better understand APPeV transmission dynamics.
In recent years, the number of migrant deaths and disappearances in the Mediterranean and on the Atlantic coasts has risen steadily. The arrival of small boats with migrants on board on the Spanish and Italian coasts has received a lot of media attention, and European Governments are investing more than in the past to stop unauthorized arrivals on their shores. Certain narratives from governments and officials of international organizations attribute these deaths to “smugglers” and the dangerous routes they take. However, this article provides evidence that the higher mortality rates are the result of changes in border controls following bilateral agreements between the European Union and Morocco after 2018. By analyzing data from official statistics, microdata, and data provided by NGOs up to 2024, it shows how the increase in the mortality rate of migrants in the Western Mediterranean is the result of changes in the management of sea rescues, the militarization and externalization of the border, and the way in which migrants attempting to cross the sea are taking more dangerous routes than in the past.
Why do some autocrats establish a ruling party, whereas others do not? The existing literature argues that weak leaders facing a commitment problem have an incentive to create highly institutionalised parties in order to stabilise their ruling coalition. However, empirical research points out that stronger leaders also create ruling parties, which tend to lack institutional strength and be short-lived.
Through a simple formal model and a case study, this paper explains strong leaders’ motivation to create less-institutionalised, short-lived parties. My model introduces two variables to classical leader-elite bargaining model. (1) indivisible benefit from incumbency, which the leaders can exclusively consume and cannot share with ruling elites. This makes the bargaining more difficult while it also increases the leaders’ merit to maintain his post. Thus, the leaders found ruling parties to temporarily deter the elites’ defection, even if the leaders are sure that their ruling coalition will inevitably collapse in the near future. (2) loser’s share, which the elites consume even after the failed rebellion. Many existing models assume that losers in rebellions lose everything, but some leaders lack the willingness or capability to punish defectors. The low loser’s share decreases the elites’ future share, which encourages weak elites to rebel before their bargaining power furthermore goes down. Thus, even strong leaders can face the commitment problem. Through the case study of Georgia, this paper also shows that even less-institutionalised ruling parties can prevent elites from rebelling by empowering potential defectors.
Active fluids encompass a wide range of non-equilibrium fluids, in which the self-propulsion or rotation of their units can give rise to large-scale spontaneous flows. Despite the diversity of active fluids, they are commonly viscoelastic. Therefore, we develop a hydrodynamic model of isotropic active liquids by accounting for their viscoelasticity. Specifically, we incorporate an active stress term into a general viscoelastic liquid model to study the spontaneous flow states and their transitions in two-dimensional channel, annulus and disk geometries. We have discovered rich spontaneous flow states in a channel as a function of activity and Weissenberg number, including unidirectional flow, travelling-wave and vortex-roll states. The Weissenberg number acts against activity by suppressing the spontaneous flow. In an annulus confinement, we find that a net flow can be generated only if the aspect ratio of the annulus is not too large nor too small, akin to some three-dimensional active-flow phenomena. In a disk geometry, we observe a periodic chirality switching of a single vortex flow, resembling the bacteria-based active fluid experiments. The two phenomena reproduced in our model differ in Weissenberg number and frictional coefficient. As such, our active viscoelastic model offers a unified framework to elucidate diverse active liquids, uncover their connections and highlight the universality of dynamic active-flow patterns.
This paper is concerned with the growth rate of susceptible–infectious–recovered epidemics with general infectious period distribution on random intersection graphs. This type of graph is characterised by the presence of cliques (fully connected subgraphs). We study epidemics on random intersection graphs with a mixed Poisson degree distribution and show that in the limit of large population sizes the number of infected individuals grows exponentially during the early phase of the epidemic, as is generally the case for epidemics on asymptotically unclustered networks. The Malthusian parameter is shown to satisfy a variant of the classical Euler–Lotka equation. To obtain these results we construct a coupling of the epidemic process and a continuous-time multitype branching process, where the type of an individual is (essentially) given by the length of its infectious period. Asymptotic results are then obtained via an embedded single-type Crump–Mode–Jagers branching process.
The 2018/2019 trade conflict between the United States and China impacted a broad array of agricultural products, including soybeans. Previous trade studies using gravity models fail to account for trends and complex seasonal patterns observed in the data. This study uses a machine learning (ML) approach to estimate losses in soybean export value and volume from the trade war. We find that models using ML techniques outperform traditional models and estimate losses in the value of soybean exports of $10.16 billion/year. The ML models fit the complex export trade data series well, highlighting the importance of utilizing improved modeling approaches.