To do statistics you must first be able to “speak probability.” In this chapter we are going to concentrate on the basic ideas of probability. In probability, the mechanism that generates outcomes is assumed known and the problems focus on calculating the chance of observing particular types or sets of outcomes. Classical problems include flipping “fair” coins (where fair means that on one flip of the coin the chance it comes up heads is equal to the chance it comes up tails) and “fair” dice (where fair now means the chance of landing on any side of the die is equal to that of landing on any other side).
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