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Accelerating global systemic risks impel as well as threaten low-carbon energy transitions. Polycrises can undermine low-carbon transitions, and the breakdown of low-carbon energy transitions has the potential to intensify polycrises. Identifying the systemic risks facing low-carbon transitions is critical, as is studying what systemic risks could be exacerbated by energy transitions. Given the urgency and scale of the required technological and institutional changes, integrated and interdisciplinary approaches are essential to determine how low-carbon transitions can mitigate, rather than amplify polycrisis. If done deliberately and through deliberation, low-carbon transitions could spearhead the integrative tools, methods, and strategies required to address the broader polycrisis.
Technical summary
The urgent need to address accelerating global systemic risks impels low-carbon energy transitions, but these same risks also pose a threat. This briefing discusses factors influencing the stability and resilience of low-carbon energy transitions over extended time-frames, necessitating a multidisciplinary approach. The collapse of these transitions could exacerbate the polycrisis, making it crucial to identify and understand the systemic risks low-carbon transitions face. Key questions addressed include: What are the systemic risks confronting low-carbon transitions? Given the unprecedented urgency and scale of required technological and institutional changes, how can low-carbon transitions mitigate, rather than amplify, global systemic risks? The article describes the role of well-designed climate policies in fostering positive outcomes, achieving political consensus, integrating fiscal and social policies, and managing new risks such as those posed by climate engineering. It emphasizes the importance of long-term strategic planning, interdisciplinary research, and inclusive decision-making. Ultimately, successful low-carbon transitions can provide tools and methods to address broader global challenges, ensuring a sustainable and equitable future amidst a backdrop of complex global interdependencies.
Social media summary
Low-carbon energy transitions must be approached so as to lower the risks of global polycrisis across systems.
Climate change is significantly altering our planet, with greenhouse gas emissions and environmental changes bringing us closer to critical tipping points. These changes are impacting species and ecosystems worldwide, leading to the urgent need for understanding and mitigating climate change risks. In this study, we examined global research on assessing climate change risks to species and ecosystems. We found that interest in this field has grown rapidly, with researchers identifying key factors such as species' vulnerability, adaptability, and exposure to environmental changes. Our work highlights the importance of developing better tools to predict risks and create effective protect strategies.
Technical summary
The rising concentration of greenhouse gases, coupled with environmental changes such as albedo shifts, is accelerating the approach to critical climate tipping points. These changes have triggered significant biological responses on a global scale, underscoring the urgent need for robust climate change risk assessments for species and ecosystems. We conducted a systematic literature review using the Web of Science database. Our bibliometric analysis shows an exponential growth in publications since 2000, with over 200 papers published annually since 2019. Our bibliometric analysis reveals that the number of studies has exponentially increased since 2000, with over 200 papers published annually since 2019. High-frequency keywords such as ‘impact’, ‘risk’, ‘vulnerability’, ‘response’, ‘adaptation’, and ‘prediction’ were prevalent, highlighting the growing importance of assessing climate change risks. We then identified five universally accepted concepts for assessing the climate change risk on species and ecosystems: exposure, sensitivity, adaptivity, vulnerability, and response. We provided an overview of the principles, applications, advantages, and limitations of climate change risk modeling approaches such as correlative approaches, mechanistic approaches, and hybrid approaches. Finally, we emphasize that the emerging trends of risk assessment of climate change, encompass leveraging the concept of telecoupling, harnessing the potential of geography, and developing early warning mechanisms.
Social media summary
Climate change risks to biodiversity and ecosystem: key insights, modeling approaches, and emerging strategies.
At the heart of the polycrisis debate is the struggle to grapple with both the scientific and political uncertainties of the Anthropocene. The struggles over what to do about the polycrisis are thus found at the intersection of science and politics. We must approach the polycrisis as simultaneously a scientific and political challenge. To do so we propose that the polycrisis project adopts the methods of decision-making under deep uncertainty as a way to integrate and encourage collaborations between the scientific and policy worlds.
Technical summary
The polycrisis concept points to the interaction of multiple global crises and, arguably, to the difficulties in grasping the current moment with conceptual clarity. While Lawrence et al. emphasize the causal relations between crises in multiple global systems to define and operationalize the concept, we argue that they underestimate the politics of knowledge claims about the polycrisis, from the concept's performative function, from the normative claims it enacts or enables, and from the program of action that it carries or implies. We argue instead that at the heart of the polycrisis debate is the struggle to grapple with the (deep) uncertainties – both scientific and political – of the Anthropocene. Polycrisis is found operating at the intersection of science and politics where claims to scientific knowledge and political value, and scientific and political judgements, collide. Dealing with the uncertainties of the polycrisis is thus a matter of scientific methodological conundrum and a matter of political judgement and decision. We then propose that the polycrisis research program adopts decision-making under deep uncertainty methods to reach its objectives of improving policy outcomes, but also to better navigate what we call the uncertainty possibility space of the polycrisis.
Social media summary
The polycrisis is a struggle to grapple with the uncertainties of the Anthropocene which demands a new policy approach.
Nancyrossite, ideally FeGeO6H5, is a new hydroxyperovskite from Tsumeb. It probably formed by the oxidation and partial dehydrogenation of stottite, FeGe(OH)6, with which it is associated intimately. The structure of nancyrossite has been determined in tetragonal space group P42/n: a = 7.37382(12) Å, c = 7.29704(19) Å, V = 396.764(16) Å3, Z = 4, R1(all) = 0.034, wR2(all) = 0.051 and GoF = 1.057. Empirical formulae of two crystals have almost end-member compositions, Fe3+1.01Zn0.03Ge0.98O6H5 and Fe3+1.01Zn0.04Ge0.98O6H5. Structure determination indicates that 88% of the Fe is ferric. The chemical formula proposed here for nancyrossite recognises that although H atoms form OH groups, writing the formula as FeGeO(OH)5 implies that one of the six oxygen atoms is very underbonded, with a bond-valence sum of only ∼1.2 valence units. As such, H in nancyrossite may have novel crystal chemistry. For example, the five H atoms may be distributed dynamically over the six O atoms, a phenomenon that would be averaged by X-ray diffraction, and so go undetected. Nancyrossite is the Ge-analogue of jeanbandyite. By analogy with nancyrossite, we propose revision of the ideal formula of jeanbandyite from FeSnO(OH)5 (Welch and Kampf, 2017) to FeSnO6H5.
Advocates of the concept of polycrisis show that our world faces many interconnected risks that can compound and reinforce each other. Marxist critics, on the contrary, argue that polycrisis advocates have not yet given sufficient attention to the role of capitalism as a root cause of these intersecting crises. This paper agrees with these critics. But I also argue that it is possible to develop an alternative approach to polycrisis analysis rooted in the traditions of Marxism and neo-Gramscian theory. The paper applies this approach to analyze the European Union's ongoing polycrisis and sketch out its possible futures.
Technical summary
Advocates of the term polycrisis often claim that contemporary crises cannot be reduced to a single driver or dominant contradiction, forming instead a complex multiplicity of inter-systemic shocks. Marxist critics, on the contrary, claim that this approach, by framing contemporary crises as disparate and merely contingently connected, obscures the capitalist roots of contemporary crises. I agree with these critics to a point, though I argue that polycrisis thinking is needed to deepen Marxist analyses of the inter-systemic dynamics of contemporary crises and their possible futures. Polycrisis thinking needs Marxism to deepen its analysis of the political economy of polycrisis, whereas Marxism needs polycrisis thinking to enrich its understanding of the political opportunities and constraints that these intersecting crises may create for counter-hegemonic movements. To synthesize the insights of Marxism and polycrisis analysis, I develop an approach rooted in complexity theory and neo-Gramscian political economy. Using the European Union's (EU) ongoing polycrisis as an illustrative example, I show how neo-Gramscian polycrisis analysis can highlight the constraints that neoliberal hegemony places on the EU's efforts to manage its intersecting crises, while also informing counter-hegemonic struggles aiming to navigate toward more desirable futures in Europe's political possibility space.
Social media summary
This paper combines polycrisis thinking and Marxism to analyze the current polycrisis and possible futures of the European Union.
Shifting to cycling in urban areas reduces greenhouse gas emissions and improves public health. Access to street-level data on bicycle traffic would assist cities in planning targeted infrastructure improvements to encourage cycling and provide civil society with evidence to advocate for cyclists’ needs. Yet, the data currently available to cities and citizens often only comes from sparsely located counting stations. This paper extrapolates bicycle volume beyond these few locations to estimate street-level bicycle counts for the entire city of Berlin. We predict daily and average annual daily street-level bicycle volumes using machine-learning techniques and various data sources. These include app-based crowdsourced data, infrastructure, bike-sharing, motorized traffic, socioeconomic indicators, weather, holiday data, and centrality measures. Our analysis reveals that crowdsourced cycling flow data from Strava in the area around the point of interest are most important for the prediction. To provide guidance for future data collection, we analyze how including short-term counts at predicted locations enhances model performance. By incorporating just 10 days of sample counts for each predicted location, we are able to almost halve the error and greatly reduce the variability in performance among predicted locations.
‘Print stone’ is an iron-banded siltstone from the Pilbara Province of Western Australia that bears partial resemblance to iconic East Kimberley ‘zebra rock’ in both pattern morphology and mineralogical composition. Using a combination of mineralogy and elemental geochemistry, this investigation examines the mechanisms underlying the formation of periodic iron-oxide banding in print stone. We demonstrate that print stone patterns probably arose from the periodic deposition of hydrothermal pyrite during the early Palaeoproterozoic, as evidenced by the distinctive cuboid morphology of the hematite pigment, the deposition of iron oxides along fluid-transport pathways, the presence of extensive hydrothermal pyrite elsewhere in the formation, and the presence of a positive europium anomaly. Through spatial analysis of the iron-oxide banding, we further show that print stone adheres to the Liesegang spacing law with a spacing coefficient of 0.018. This suggests that the periodic deposition of pyrite in print stone arose due to the Liesegang phenomenon, which was probably triggered by the infiltration of near-neutral, sulfidic hydrothermal fluids into a ferruginous, feldspathic shale. Altogether, the present findings demonstrate the opportunity for iron-oxide Liesegang bands to develop in hydrothermal systems, providing additional insight into the mechanisms underlying the formation of the East Kimberley zebra rock and other banded geological material.
Cities have suffered from three years of the COVID-19 pandemic and are increasingly experiencing exacerbated heatwaves, floods, and droughts due to climate change. Going forward, cities need to address both climate and public health crises effectively while reducing poverty and inequity, often in the context of economic pressure and declining levels of trust in government. The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed gaps in city readiness for simultaneous responses to pandemics and climate change, particularly in the Global South. However, these concurrent challenges to cities present an opportunity to reformulate current urbanization patterns and the economies and dynamics they enable. This Element focuses on understanding COVID-19's impact on city systems related to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and vice versa, in terms of warnings, lessons learned, and calls to action. This title is also available as open access on Cambridge Core.
The instantaneous structure of a turbulent boundary layer (TBL) subjected to freestream turbulence (FST) is investigated at several streamwise locations downstream of an active turbulence-generating grid. Using planar particle image velocimetry, three grid sequences are tested at four streamwise locations with FST intensities up to 10.9 %. A low-turbulence reference case is included for comparison. A novel method is proposed to separate the instantaneous TBL and FST flows by identifying a distinct interface for each realisation using probability density functions of the vorticity field. Two alternative approaches are used to define the interfaces, based on either constant velocity contour lines or constant vorticity magnitude contour lines. The former is found to highlight the momentum events in the velocity fields, whereas the latter outlines the vortical features of the flow. Regardless of the interface choice, when faced with FST, the interface moves closer to the wall on average, and its location fluctuates more. When FST is present, the shear and mean spanwise vorticity magnitudes increase on the TBL side of the interface. Uniform momentum zones (UMZs) beneath the velocity interfaces are identified. In the presence of FST, UMZs located closer to the wall appear to be compressed, resulting in fewer identified UMZs. Moving downstream, the FST intensity decays while the TBL develops. As a result, many characteristics of the TBL recover to an undisturbed state, with the interface moving away from the wall, vorticity and turbulent fluctuations returning to their natural state undisturbed by FST and the number of detected UMZs increasing.
This paper reports one mytiloid species, Amygdalum anoxicolum P. G. Oliver, 2001 from the summit of a seamount located in the eastern Arabian Sea. This species was encountered from the core of the Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone at a depth of 340 m and possessed several adaptations to low-oxygen concentration. This paper presents the first-ever DNA barcodes for this species.
The magnificent shrimp, Ancylomenes magnificus (Bruce, 1979), is a sea anemone associated marine ornamental organism exploited from Indo-Pacific waters, for the marine aquarium trade, as it has attractive coloration. However, there are no reports available yet on its population and reproductive characteristics (population structure, length–weight relationship, fecundity, sexual dimorphism, sex ratio and maturity stages). The present investigation provides information for the first time on the population and reproductive parameters of A. magnificus. In this study, a total of 158 individuals were collected from the intertidal regions of the Gulf of Mannar, Tamil Nadu, India from August 2021 to April 2022, out of which 61.4% (97 individuals) were females and 38.6% (61 individuals) were males. The estimated mean size (CL ± SD) of females was 4.93 ± 0.78 mm, while that of males was 3.22 ± 0.56 mm. The estimated mean body weight was 0.091 and 0.219 g in males and females, respectively. The study indicated strong sexual dimorphism in this species and considerable variation appeared in the carpus and chela of the second major pereopod, carapace and total length. The carapace length and weight showed a negative allometric relationship with a significant coefficient. Fecundity was relatively lower and embryo volume increased with size groups. Interestingly, the study revealed year-round breeding activity with a peak in the post-monsoon (January to March) and monsoonal period (October to December) for this species. The present investigation provides the first baseline information on the population and reproductive parameters of A. magnificus.
We demonstrate the first successful non-invasive stabilisation of nonlinear travelling waves in a straight cylindrical pipe using time-delayed feedback control working in various symmetric subspaces. By using an approximate linear stability analysis and by analysing the frequency-domain effect of the control using transfer functions, we find that solutions with well-separated unstable eigenfrequencies can have narrow windows of stabilising time delays. To mitigate this issue we employ a ‘multiple time-delayed feedback’ approach, where several control terms are included to attenuate a broad range of unstable eigenfrequencies. We implement a gradient descent method to dynamically adjust the gain functions in order to reduce the need for tuning a high-dimensional parameter space. This results in a novel control method where the properties of the target state are not needed in advance, and speculative guesses can result in robust stabilisation. This enables travelling waves to be stabilised from generic turbulent states and unknown travelling waves to be obtained in highly symmetric subspaces.
At a time of increasing environmental changes and geopolitical tensions, the need for collaboration in the Arctic is greater than ever. Top-down initiatives such as the Arctic Council have contributed to important increased collaboration and science diplomacy. Similarly, bottom-up initiatives have also played a major role in establishing diplomacy among researchers with spin-offs at government levels. We track the rise of science diplomacy achieved by INTERACT. In 2021, this was a network of 90 research stations in 18 countries (including all Arctic nations). It aims to improve the wellness of Indigenous Peoples, other Arctic residents and the global community by facilitating environmental monitoring and research. It supports scientists from around the world and facilitates environmental monitoring for more than 150 international/global networks. INTERACT contributed to science diplomacy until spring 2022 when the invasion of Ukraine by Russia completely changed its pan-Arctic networking over a couple of months. This decrease in INTERACT science diplomacy was due entirely to external constraints related to the current geopolitical circumstances and poses a new reality for INTERACT and its important contributions to environmental monitoring and research in a region where changes have global implications.
In the present study we update the distributional, bathymetric ranges and taxonomic characters of the carnivorous sponge Asbestopluma (Asbestopluma) magnifica Lopez, Bravo & Hajdu, 2011 providing new records for Argentinian jurisdictional waters in the SW Atlantic Ocean, including the Marine Protected Area Namuncurá/Burdwood Bank. The shallowest bathymetric range is now changed to the upper bathyal (289 m depth). We also amend the original description after re-examination of type materials, when markedly different micrometric values were observed for their subtylostyles and acanthotylostrongyles. We noticed a remarkable similarity between Asbestopluma (Asbestopluma) sarsensis Goodwin, Berman, Downey & Hendry, 2017 and A. (A.) magnifica and we suspect they may be synonymous, but we refrain from taking a formal decision pending revision of all materials reported for the younger taxon or a genetic analysis.
Over the last decade, several studies have shown the importance of trait diversity in natural populations. Theoretical ecological studies are beginning to incorporate trait variations in models but they continue to be largely ignored in the context of ecosystems that exhibit alternative stable states. Here, we begin with a mean-field model of bistable savanna-woodland system and then introduce trait variation in functional and demographic traits of savanna trees and saplings in the model. Our study reveals that higher trait variation reduces the extent of bistability in the system, such that the woodland state is favoured; that is, woodland occurs over a wider range of driver values compared to the grassland state. We find that the shift from one state to another can become less or more drastic, depending on the trait which exhibits variation. Interestingly, we find that even if the overall tree and grass cover remain insensitive to different initial conditions, the steady-state population trait distribution exhibits sensitivity to initial conditions. Our model findings suggest that in dryland ecosystems, and potentially in a broader class of bistable ecosystems, historical contingency has a stronger impact at the population level rather than at the ecosystem level when trait diversity is considered.
It is widely believed that statistical closure theories for dynamical systems provide statistics equivalent to those of the governing dynamical equations from which the former are derived. Here, we demonstrate counterexamples in the context of the widely used mean-field quasi-linear approximation applied to both deterministic and stochastic two-dimensional fluid dynamical systems. We compare statistics of numerical simulations of a quasi-linear model (QL) with statistics obtained by direct statistical simulation via a cumulant expansion closed at second order (CE2). We observe that although CE2 is an exact statistical closure for QL dynamics, its predictions can disagree with the statistics of the QL solution for identical parameter values. These disagreements are attributed to instabilities, which we term rank instabilities, of the second cumulant dynamics within CE2 that are unavailable in the QL equations.
We study the transition from the momentum- to buoyancy-dominated regime in temporal jets forced by gravity. From the conservation of the thermal content and of the volume flux, we develop a simple model which is able to describe accurately the transition between the two regimes in terms of a single parameter representing the entrainment coefficient. Our analytical results are validated against a set of numerical simulations of temporal planar forced plumes at different initial values of Reynolds and Froude numbers. We find that, although the the pure jet-scaling law is not clearly observed in simulations at finite Froude number, the model correctly describes the transition to the buoyancy-dominated regime which emerges at long times.
Ecoviolence, defined broadly as the intersection between human-human exploitation and the destruction of nature, is one of the defining features of our time. This book collects ten case studies examining the intersection between the exploitation of human beings and environmental harm. Topics discussed include the wildlife trade, ecoviolence at sea, natural resource exploitation in Latin America and Africa, human trafficking induced by extreme weather events, climate change-related language death, and the confluence of drug cartels and environmental destruction. The book argues that Ecoviolence Studies has emerged as an expanded, multidisciplinary field in its own right, and that policy responses and the search for environmental and social justice should reflect accumulated knowledge in this area. It is an insightful volume for researchers and graduate students working in green criminology, Earth system governance, environmental politics, human rights, environmental and international law, and related areas.
This chapter explores gender dimensions of biodiversity and nature conservation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It sheds light on the nature, scope, meaning, and barriers to gender-responsive implementation of biodiversity treaties in the region, and strategies to overcome these barriers and promote inclusive and equitable conservation efforts. Furthermore, the chapter will address the barriers to implementing gender-responsive biodiversity policies, such as societal norms, limited awareness, and institutional challenges. It will examine the importance of capacity building, stakeholder engagement, and knowledge-sharing platforms in overcoming these barriers and fostering an enabling environment for gender-responsive conservation practices. By emphasizing the value of gender equality and inclusivity in biodiversity governance, this chapter seeks to contribute to the ongoing discourse on integrating gender perspectives into environmental law and policymaking. The findings and recommendations presented aim to inform policymakers, practitioners, and researchers, providing actionable insights for promoting gender-responsive implementation of biodiversity and nature conservation treaties in the MENA region and beyond.