Trade concerns at World Trade Organization (WTO) Committees and Councils show the WTO’s involvement in addressing digital trade beyond treaty-making and dispute settlement cases. Observations from a database analysing relevant concerns foremost raised at the Committee on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) show an increasingly significant occurrence of trade concerns not corresponding to the idea of them being a vehicle for tension-defusing dialogue. Two relevant observations are the prominence among involved WTO members of China, the European Union, and the United States of America, and the contentiousness of raised issues, such as cybersecurity or artificial intelligence. Those observations highlight that concerns voiced about digital trade in technical WTO bodies, such as the TBT Committee, also are vehicles of members’ political commitment and confrontation. The article concludes by putting these findings in the perspective of the contribution that WTO bodies, like the TBT Committee, can make to address digital trade.

Credibility theory provides a fundamental framework in actuarial science for estimating policyholder premiums by blending individual claims experience with overall portfolio data. Bühlmann and Bühlmann–Straub credibility models are widely used because, in the Bayesian hierarchical setting, they are the best linear Bayes estimators, minimizing the Bayes risk (expected squared error loss) within the class of linear estimators given the experience data for a particular risk class. To improve estimation accuracy, quadratic credibility models incorporate higher-order terms, capturing more information about the underlying risk structure. This study develops a robust quadratic credibility (RQC) framework that integrates second-order polynomial adjustments of robustly transformed ground-up loss data, such as winsorized moments, to improve stability in the presence of extreme claims or heavy-tailed distributions. Extending semi-linear credibility, RQC maintains interpretability while enhancing statistical efficiency. We establish its asymptotic properties, derive closed-form expressions for the RQC premium, and demonstrate its superior performance in reducing mean square error (MSE). We additionally derive semi-linear credibility structural parameters using winsorized data, further strengthening the robustness of credibility estimation. Analytical comparisons and empirical applications highlight RQC’s ability to capture claim heterogeneity, offering a more reliable and equitable approach to premium estimation. This research advances credibility theory by introducing a refined methodology that balances efficiency, robustness, and practical applicability across diverse insurance settings.

We study the pricing of foreign silver coins circulating in China during the period from 1866 to 1924. Spanish and Mexican silver dollar coins often traded at prices substantially larger than their bullion value. These premiums are associated with global economic and political conditions, proxies for Chinese political and banking uncertainty, and seasonal production cycles and market conditions for China’s export commodities. Diagnostic tests using the value of copper money and imports often confirm our interpretation. Our evidence suggests how rational currency traders, bankers, merchants, farmers and consumers sustained an informal monetary system during this era.

This article provides a general asymptotic theory for mildly explosive autoregression. We confirm that Cauchy limit theory remains invariant across a broad range of error processes, including general linear processes with martingale difference innovations, stationary causal processes, and nonlinear autoregressive time series, such as threshold autoregressive and bilinear models. Our results unify the Cauchy limit theory for long memory, short memory, and anti-persistent innovations within a single framework. Notably, we demonstrate that in the presence of anti-persistent innovations, the Cauchy limit theory may be violated when the regression coefficient approaches the local-to-unity range. Additionally, we explore extensions to models with varying drift, which is of significant interest in its own right.

In this paper, we develop a model economy to study how financial innovations affect financial access and inequality. Financial innovations alter distribution of costs. In this way, the measure of buyers is endogenous regarding the payment method. In studying financial innovations in an economy with limited commitment, it is possible to bridge two existing literatures. When comparing stationary equilibria, we find that the results depend on the scarcity of collateral. Moreover, the expected welfare and inequality are affected by consumers access to the form of payment systems.

In Indigenous Lenca communities of western Honduras, craft production is a central livelihood that has economically supported artisan households for generations. In some communities, crafts like pottery are regarded as cultural patrimony, with socioeconomic and spiritual value that reflects Lenca identity. However, perceptions of which crafts are “Lenca tradition” and what it means to be a Lenca person in Honduras today vary greatly among the general public. Narratives of indigeneity are heavily shaped by the state and national tourism industry. Promotion of Lenca crafts, considered most commercially appealing, dominates national tourism marketing but often misaligns with how Lenca artisans define themselves and their craft practices. Constructions of “national identity” distance artisans from directly interacting with tourists and disconnect them from controlling the promotion of their respective identities and livelihoods. Through a comparative analysis of craft practices in five Lenca communities that are variably defined as “traditional” either in the tourism industry or by artisans themselves, this work asks: How have state-constructed definitions of “tradition” shaped public understanding of Indigenous Lenca identity in Honduras, from the colonial period to the present? How do these misconceptions impact Lenca artisans participating in the national tourism industry? How do Lenca artisans themselves define their contemporary craft practices and react against inaccurate identity narratives affecting their livelihoods? Drawing on neoliberal multiculturalism, this project explores complex and changing definitions of “tradition” and reactive strategies artisans use to maintain craft livelihoods and reclaim ownership of what it means to be an Indigenous Lenca artisan in Honduras today.

In many contexts, an individual’s beliefs and behavior are affected by the choices of their social or geographic neighbors. This influence results in local correlation in people’s actions, which in turn affects how information and behaviors spread. Previously developed frameworks capture local social influence using network games, but discard local correlation in players’ strategies. This paper develops a network games framework that allows for local correlation in players’ strategies by incorporating a richer partial information structure than previous models. Using this framework we also examine the dependence of equilibrium outcomes on network clustering—the probability that two individuals with a mutual neighbor are connected to each other. We find that clustering reduces the number of players needed to provide a public good and allows for market sharing in technology standards competitions.

When overdispersion and correlation co-occur in longitudinal count data, as is often the case, an analysis method that can handle both phenomena simultaneously is needed. The correlated Poisson distribution (CPD) proposed by Drezner and Farnum (Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods, 22(11), 3051–3063, 1994) is a generalization of the classical Poisson distribution with the incorporation of an additional parameter that allows dependence between successive observations of the phenomenon under study. This parameter both measures the correlation and reflects the degree of dispersion. The classical Poisson distribution is obtained as a special case when the correlation is zero. We present an in-depth review of this CPD and discuss some methods to estimate the distribution parameters. The inclusion of regression components in this distribution is enabled by allowing one of the parameters to include available information concerning, in this case, automobile insurance policyholders. The proposed distribution can be viewed as an alternative to the Poisson, negative binomial, and Poisson-inverse Gaussian approaches. We then describe applications of the distribution, suggest it is appropriate for modeling the number of claims in an automobile insurance portfolio, and establish some new distribution properties.

The practice of actuarial science has always been rooted in computation. From the early days of hand-constructed tables and commutation functions to today’s large-scale stochastic simulations and machine learning models, actuaries have continuously adapted their analytical tools to the technology of their time. The rapid growth of high-performance computing, open-source software, and data-driven methodologies now offers new possibilities for actuarial modeling – transforming not only how we calculate, but also how we think about risk, uncertainty, and decision-making. This editorial introduces a thematic collection on Actuarial Software, which showcases recent advances at the intersection of actuarial modeling and computational science.

This article argues that the global Business and Human Rights movement demonstrates a push towards a human-rights type of sustainable corporation, reconciling economic development and human rights. It explains the necessity for and significance of a definition of a sustainable corporation at the intersection of traditional international human rights and sustainable development instruments. It argues, inter alia, that an internationally recognised definition of a sustainable corporation can settle fundamental questions and create a minimal framework for meaningful discourse on corporate accountability for human rights, climate change and the environment. It identifies difficulties of defining a sustainable corporation such as the integration problem. It suggests ‘direct human rights obligation’ as a minimally sufficient normative criterion for the definitional correctness of a sustainable corporation. The suggested definition of sustainable corporation requires taking a normative position which makes the term ‘essentially contested’ resulting in discursive and behavioural norm contestation in the search for definitional determinacy and consensus within the divide between international and domestic law.

Fine-grained mortality forecasting has gained momentum in actuarial research due to its ability to capture localized, short-term fluctuations in death rates. This paper introduces MortFCNet, a deep-learning method that predicts weekly death rates using region-specific weather inputs. Unlike traditional Serfling-based methods and gradient-boosting models that rely on predefined fixed Fourier terms and manual feature engineering, MortFCNet automatically learns patterns from raw time-series data without needing explicitly defined Fourier terms or manual feature engineering. Extensive experiments across over 200 NUTS-3 regions in France, Italy, and Switzerland demonstrate that MortFCNet consistently outperforms both a standard Serfling-type baseline and XGBoost in terms of predictive accuracy. Our ablation studies further confirm its ability to uncover complex relationships in the data without feature engineering. Moreover, this work underscores a new perspective on exploring deep learning for advancing fine-grained mortality forecasting.

El Consejo Comunitario Eladio Ariza, en los Montes de María, concibe su territorio como un espacio de vida que preserva sus costumbres afrodescendientes y prácticas colectivas. Como autoridad étnica, organiza y regula el uso del territorio, priorizando lo comunitario. Sin embargo, su territorialidad ha sido impactada por políticas estatales de ordenamiento que, lejos de conciliar con las visiones locales, han generado tensiones entre las lógicas comunitarias y estatales. A ello se suman las consecuencias del conflicto armado interno y las presiones territoriales derivadas de planes de desarrollo que no corresponden a su visión propia. El Programa de Desarrollo con Enfoque Territorial (PDET), surgido del Acuerdo de Paz, representó una esperanza de transformación, pero no se ha implementado en su totalidad. Así, el territorio de Eladio Ariza se ha visto reconfigurado por estas dinámicas externas, consolidando “territorios de diferencia” donde confluyen intereses y visiones contrastantes.

This collection of articles focuses on some instruments that served to finance the expansion of private European trade and enabled the European intermediation of global commerce in the early modern period. Because they were distinct from those featured by the financial modernization of northern European economies -i.e. banks, bills and bonds, they have been conventionally assumed as archaic and lacking the efficiency and productivity gains of the modern vehicles and institutions. However, they coexisted, completed the financial architecture of Europe, and allowed a substantial extra-European commerce whose expansion was at the core of the Smithian growth of the period. Their persistence, scope and geographical reach were central for the expansion and integration of markets in the early modern globalization. Yet, their understanding is confined to micro-case studies of trades that reliant in cash payments and remittances were lagging in the innovations that revolutionized financial markets and long-distance commerce. This view also ignores their relevance even for the very European economy. Whilst the origins preceded the commercial expansion of Europe, research of the European trade finance has mostly focused on institutions of corporate models of trade finance and their institutional spillovers to bonds markets and banking infrastructure that developed exceptionally in some European economies. The alternative instrument common to these contribution was probably more ubiquitous than others more “modern” and persisted despite the flaws associated with its relative “archaism”.

En el marco de la Comisión para el Acceso a la Verdad, el Esclarecimiento Histórico y el Impulso a la Justicia de las Violaciones Graves a los Derechos Humanos Cometidas de 1965 a 1990, creada en 2021 en México por decreto presidencial, entre los años 2022 y 2024 se organizaron foros regionales donde se presentaron diversos testimonios sobre la violencia política infringida durante dicho período histórico. Desde un enfoque que comprende a los mismos como prácticas narrativas de memoria y resistencia que son significadas desde el presente, este artículo aborda los testimonios narrados durante el Diálogo por la Verdad en el Estado de Chiapas. El análisis muestra formas de visibilización de la agencia política indígena en contexto contrainsurgente.

We study the mortgage rate channel of monetary policy transmission under two different mortgage regimes by analyzing the United States with primarily long-term fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) and Spain with mainly annually resetting adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). We find a robust transmission of mortgage rate changes to spending in both regimes, with marginal propensities to consume ranging between 0.58–0.67 in Spain and 0.27–0.52 in the United States. Under ARMs, transmission is stronger when rate changes are expected to persist, whereas under FRMs, the effect is larger when rate changes are expected to revert. We further document the important role of mortgage type in shaping the variation in transmission across mortgagors—while the mortgage rate effect is fairly homogeneous across diverse household characteristics under ARMs, it is more heterogeneous under FRMs and largest among potential refinancers.