Let $\def \xmlpi #1{}\def \mathsfbi #1{\boldsymbol {\mathsf {#1}}}\let \le =\leqslant \let \leq =\leqslant \let \ge =\geqslant \let \geq =\geqslant \def \Pr {\mathit {Pr}}\def \Fr {\mathit {Fr}}\def \Rey {\mathit {Re}}\nu \in M^1([0,\infty [)$ be a fixed probability measure. For each dimension $p\in \mathbb{N}$, let $(X_n^{p})_{n\geq 1}$ be independent and identically distributed $\mathbb{R}^p$-valued random variables with radially symmetric distributions and radial distribution $\nu $. We investigate the distribution of the Euclidean length of $S_n^{p}:=X_1^{p}+\cdots + X_n^{p}$ for large parameters $n$ and $p$. Depending on the growth of the dimension $p=p_n$ we derive by the method of moments two complementary central limit theorems (CLTs)for the functional $\| S_n^{p}\| _2$ with normal limits, namely for $n/p_n \to \infty $ and $n/p_n \to 0$. Moreover, we present a CLT for the case $n/p_n \to c\in \, (0,\infty )$. Thereby we derive explicit formulas and asymptotic results for moments of radial distributed random variables on $\mathbb{R}^p$. All limit theorems are also considered for orthogonal invariant random walks on the space $\mathbb{M}_{p,q}(\mathbb{R})$ of $p\times q$ matrices instead of $\mathbb{R}^p$ for $p\to \infty $ and some fixed dimension $q$.

In this paper we use a simple transient Markov process with an absorbing point to investigate the qualitative behavior of a large-scale storage network of nonreliable file servers across which files can be duplicated. When the size of the system goes to ∞, we show that there is a critical value for the maximum number of files per server such that, below this quantity, most files have a maximum number of copies. Above this value, the network loses a significant number of files until some equilibrium is reached. When the network is stable, we show that, with convenient time scales, the evolution of the network towards the absorbing state can be described via a stochastic averaging principle.

We propose a two-urn model of Pólya type as follows. There are two urns, urn A and urn B. At the beginning, urn A contains r A red and w A white balls and urn B contains r B red and w B white balls. We first draw m balls from urn A and note their colors, say i red and m - iwhite balls. The balls are returned to urn A and bi red and b(m - i) white balls are added to urn B. Next, we draw ℓ balls from urn B and note their colors, say j red and ℓ - j white balls. The balls are returned to urn B and aj red and a(ℓ - j) white balls are added to urn A. Repeat the above action n times and let X n be the fraction of red balls in urn A and Y n the fraction of red balls in urn B. We first show that the expectations of X n and Y n have the same limit, and then use martingale theory to show that X n and Y n converge almost surely to the same limit.

This paper deals with Poisson processes on an arbitrary measurable space. Using a direct approach, we derive formulae for moments and cumulants of a vector of multiple Wiener-Itô integrals with respect to the compensated Poisson process. Also, we present a multivariate central limit theorem for a vector whose components admit a finite chaos expansion of the type of a Poisson U-statistic. The approach is based on recent results of Peccati et al. (2010), combining Malliavin calculus and Stein's method; it also yields Berry-Esseen-type bounds. As applications, we discuss moment formulae and central limit theorems for general geometric functionals of intersection processes associated with a stationary Poisson process of k-dimensional flats in .

We study the one-dimensional random motion X = X(t), t ≥ 0, which takes two different velocities with two different alternating intensities. The closed-form formulae for the density functions of X and for the moments of any order, as well as the distributions of the first passage times, are obtained. The limit behaviour of the moments is analysed under nonstandard Kac's scaling.

We analyze the optimal policy for the sequential selection of an alternating subsequence from a sequence of n independent observations from a continuous distribution F, and we prove a central limit theorem for the number of selections made by that policy. The proof exploits the backward recursion of dynamic programming and assembles a detailed understanding of the associated value functions and selection rules.

We study the properties of the multivariate skew normal distribution as an approximation to the distribution of the sum of n independent, identically distributed random vectors. More precisely, we establish conditions ensuring that the uniform distance between the two distribution functions converges to 0 at a rate of n -2/3. The advantage over the corresponding normal approximation is particularly relevant when the summands are skewed and n is small, as illustrated for the special case of exponentially distributed random variables. Applications to some well-known multivariate distributions are also discussed.

We show that the total number of collisions in the exchangeable coalescent process driven by the beta (1, b) measure converges in distribution to a 1-stable law, as the initial number of particles goes to ∞. The stable limit law is also shown for the total branch length of the coalescent tree. These results were known previously for the instance b = 1, which corresponds to the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent. The approach we take is based on estimating the quality of a renewal approximation to the coalescent in terms of a suitable Wasserstein distance. Application of the method to beta (a, b)-coalescents with 0 < a < 1 leads to a simplified derivation of the known (2 - a)-stable limit. We furthermore derive asymptotic expansions for the moments of the number of collisions and of the total branch length for the beta (1, b)-coalescent by exploiting the method of sequential approximations.

We consider a two-dimensional reflecting random walk on the nonnegative integer quadrant. This random walk is assumed to be skip free in the direction to the boundary of the quadrant, but may have unbounded jumps in the opposite direction, which are referred to as upward jumps. We are interested in the tail asymptotic behavior of its stationary distribution, provided it exists. Assuming that the upward jump size distributions have light tails, we find the rough tail asymptotics of the marginal stationary distributions in all directions. This generalizes the corresponding results for the skip-free reflecting random walk in Miyazawa (2009). We exemplify these results for a two-node queueing network with exogenous batch arrivals.

Hanski's incidence function model is one of the most widely used metapopulation models in ecology. It models the presence/absence of a species at spatially distinct habitat patches as a discrete-time Markov chain whose transition probabilities are determined by the physical landscape. In this analysis, the limiting behaviour of the model is studied as the number of patches increases and the size of the patches decreases. Two different limiting cases are identified depending on whether or not the metapopulation is initially near extinction. Basic properties of the limiting models are derived.

We characterise the class of distributions of random stochastic matrices X with the property that the products X(n)X(n − 1) · · · X(1) of independent and identically distributed copies X(k) of X converge almost surely as n → ∞ and the limit is Dirichlet distributed. This extends a result by Chamayou and Letac (1994) and is illustrated by several examples that are of interest in applications.

The generalized Pólya urn has been extensively studied and is widely applied in many disciplines. An important application of urn models is in the development of randomized treatment allocation schemes in clinical studies. The randomly reinforced urn was recently proposed, but, although the model has some intuitively desirable properties, it lacks theoretical justification. In this paper we obtain important asymptotic properties for multicolor reinforced urn models. We derive results for the rate of convergence of the number of patients assigned to each treatment under a set of minimum required conditions and provide the distributions of the limits. Furthermore, we study the asymptotic behavior for the nonhomogeneous case.

As the name suggests, the family of general error distributions has been used to model nonnormal errors in a variety of situations. In this article we show that the asymptotic distribution of linearly normalized partial maxima of random observations from the general error distributions is Gumbel when the parameter of these distributions lies in the interval (0, 1). Our result fills a gap in the literature. We also establish the corresponding density convergence, obtain an asymptotic distribution of the partial maxima under power normalization, and state and prove a strong law. We also study the asymptotic behaviour of observations near the partial maxima and the sum of such observations.

Let {Z n }n≥0 be a random walk with a negative drift and independent and identically distributed increments with heavy-tailed distribution, and let M = supn≥0 Z n be its supremum. Asmussen and Klüppelberg (1996) considered the behavior of the random walk given that M > x for large x, and obtained a limit theorem, as x → ∞, for the distribution of the quadruple that includes the time τ = τ(x) to exceed level x, position Z τ at this time, position Z τ-1 at the prior time, and the trajectory up to it (similar results were obtained for the Cramér-Lundberg insurance risk process). We obtain here several extensions of this result to various regenerative-type models and, in particular, to the case of a random walk with dependent increments. Particular attention is given to describing the limiting conditional behavior of τ. The class of models includes Markov-modulated models as particular cases. We also study fluid models, the Björk-Grandell risk process, give examples where the order of τ is genuinely different from the random walk case, and discuss which growth rates are possible. Our proofs are purely probabilistic and are based on results and ideas from Asmussen, Schmidli and Schmidt (1999), Foss and Zachary (2002), and Foss, Konstantopoulos and Zachary (2007).

We consider a broad class of fair leader election algorithms, and study the duration of contestants (the number of rounds a randomly selected contestant stays in the competition) and the overall cost of the algorithm. We give sufficient conditions for the duration to have a geometric limit distribution (a perpetuity built from Bernoulli random variables), and for the limiting distribution of the total cost (after suitable normalization) to be a perpetuity. For the duration, the proof is established via convergence (to 0) of the first-order Wasserstein distance from the geometric limit. For the normalized overall cost, the method of proof is also convergence of the first-order Wasserstein distance, augmented with an argument based on a contraction mapping in the first-order Wasserstein metric space to show that the limit approaches a unique fixed-point solution of a perpetuity distributional equation. The use of these two steps is commonly referred to as the contraction method.

In the present paper, we study the evolution of an overloaded cyclic polling model that starts empty. Exploiting a connection with multitype branching processes, we derive fluid asymptotics for the joint queue length process. Under passage to the fluid dynamics, the server switches between the queues infinitely many times in any finite time interval causing frequent oscillatory behavior of the fluid limit in the neighborhood of zero. Moreover, the fluid limit is random. In addition, we suggest a method that establishes finiteness of moments of the busy period in an M/G/1 queue.

We study an urn model introduced in the paper of Chen and Wei (2005), where at each discrete time step m balls are drawn at random from the urn containing colors white and black. Balls are added to the urn according to the inspected colors, generalizing the well known Pólya-Eggenberger urn model, case m = 1. We provide exact expressions for the expectation and the variance of the number of white balls after n draws, and determine the structure of higher moments. Moreover, we discuss extensions to more than two colors. Furthermore, we introduce and discuss a new urn model where the sampling of the m balls is carried out in a step-by-step fashion, and also introduce a generalized Friedman's urn model.

Using a characterizing equation for the beta distribution, Stein's method is applied to obtain bounds of the optimal order for the Wasserstein distance between the distribution of the scaled number of white balls drawn from a Pólya-Eggenberger urn and its limiting beta distribution. The bound is computed by making a direct comparison between characterizing operators of the target and the beta distribution, the former derived by extending Stein's density approach to discrete distributions. In addition, refinements are given to Döbler's (2012) result for the arcsine approximation for the fraction of time a simple random walk of even length spends positive, and so also to the distributions of its last return time to 0 and its first visit to its terminal point, by supplying explicit constants to the present Wasserstein bound and also demonstrating that its rate is of the optimal order.

We consider possibly nonlinear distributional fixed-point equations on weighted branching trees, which include the well-known linear branching recursion. In Jelenković and Olvera-Cravioto (2012), an implicit renewal theorem was developed that enables the characterization of the power-tail asymptotics of the solutions to many equations that fall into this category. In this paper we complement the analysis in our 2012 paper to provide the corresponding rate of convergence.

Self-exciting point processes (SEPPs), or Hawkes processes, have found applications in a wide range of fields, such as epidemiology, seismology, neuroscience, engineering, and more recently financial econometrics and social interactions. In the traditional SEPP models, the baseline intensity is assumed to be a constant. This has restricted the application of SEPPs to situations where there is clearly a self-exciting phenomenon, but a constant baseline intensity is inappropriate. In this paper, to model point processes with varying baseline intensity, we introduce SEPP models with time-varying background intensities (SEPPVB, for short). We show that SEPPVB models are competitive with autoregressive conditional SEPP models (Engle and Russell 1998) for modeling ultra-high frequency data. We also develop asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimation based inference of parametric SEPP models, including SEPPVB. We illustrate applications to ultra-high frequency financial data analysis, and we compare performance with the autoregressive conditional duration models.