Many regenerative arguments in stochastic processes use random times which are akin to stopping times, but which are determined by the future as well as the past behaviour of the process of interest. Such arguments based on ‘conditioning on the future’ are usually developed in an ad-hoc way in the context of the application under consideration, thereby obscuring the underlying structure. In this paper we give a simple, unified, and more general treatment of such conditioning theory. We further give a number of novel applications to various particle system models, in particular to various flavours of contact processes and to infinite-bin models. We give a number of new results for existing and new models. We further make connections with the theory of Harris ergodicity.

The goal of this paper is to prove a result conjectured in Föllmer and Schachermayer (2007) in a slightly more general form. Suppose that S is a continuous semimartingale and satisfies a large deviations estimate; this is a particular growth condition on the mean-variance tradeoff process of S. We show that S then allows asymptotic exponential arbitrage with exponentially decaying failure probability, which is a strong and quantitative form of long-term arbitrage. In contrast to Föllmer and Schachermayer (2007), our result does not assume that S is a diffusion, nor does it need any ergodicity assumption.

For a family of linear preferential attachment graphs, we provide rates of convergence for the total variation distance between the degree of a randomly chosen vertex and an appropriate power law distribution as the number of vertices tends to ∞. Our proof uses a new formulation of Stein's method for the negative binomial distribution, which stems from a distributional transformation that has the negative binomial distributions as the only fixed points.

We consider the problem of efficient simulation estimation of the density function at the tails, and the probability of large deviations for a sum of independent, identically distributed (i.i.d.), light-tailed, and nonlattice random vectors. The latter problem besides being of independent interest, also forms a building block for more complex rare event problems that arise, for instance, in queueing and financial credit risk modeling. It has been extensively studied in the literature where state-independent, exponential-twisting-based importance sampling has been shown to be asymptotically efficient and a more nuanced state-dependent exponential twisting has been shown to have a stronger bounded relative error property. We exploit the saddle-point-based representations that exist for these rare quantities, which rely on inverting the characteristic functions of the underlying random vectors. These representations reduce the rare event estimation problem to evaluating certain integrals, which may via importance sampling be represented as expectations. Furthermore, it is easy to identify and approximate the zero-variance importance sampling distribution to estimate these integrals. We identify such importance sampling measures and show that they possess the asymptotically vanishing relative error property that is stronger than the bounded relative error property. To illustrate the broader applicability of the proposed methodology, we extend it to develop an asymptotically vanishing relative error estimator for the practically important expected overshoot of sums of i.i.d. random variables.

We discuss tail behaviors, subexponentiality, and the extreme value distribution of logarithmic skew-normal random variables. With optimal normalized constants, the asymptotic expansion of the distribution of the normalized maximum of logarithmic skew-normal random variables is derived. We show that the convergence rate of the distribution of the normalized maximum to the Gumbel extreme value distribution is proportional to 1/(log n)1/2.

In this paper we introduce a simple risk model with delayed claims, an extension of the classical Poisson model. The claims are assumed to arrive according to a Poisson process and claims follow a light-tailed distribution, and each loss payment of the claims will be settled with a random period of delay. We obtain asymptotic expressions for the ruin probability by exploiting a connection to Poisson models that are not time homogeneous. A finer asymptotic formula is obtained for the special case of exponentially delayed claims and an exact formula is obtained when the claims are also exponentially distributed.

Consider a circle with perimeter N > 1 on which k < N segments of length 1 are sampled in an independent and identically distributed manner. In this paper we study the probability π (k,N) that these k segments do not overlap; the density φ(·) of the position of the disks on the circle is arbitrary (that is, it is not necessarily assumed uniform). Two scaling regimes are considered. In the first we set k≡ a√N, and it turns out that the probability of interest converges (N→ ∞) to an explicitly given positive constant that reflects the impact of the density φ(·). In the other regime k scales as aN, and the nonoverlap probability decays essentially exponentially; we give the associated decay rate as the solution to a variational problem. Several additional ramifications are presented.

The Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process with clustering effect whose intensity depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in neuroscience, finance, and many other fields. In this paper we obtain a functional central limit theorem for the nonlinear Hawkes process. Under the same assumptions, we also obtain a Strassen's invariance principle, i.e. a functional law of the iterated logarithm.

The asymptotic variance of the sample mean of a homogeneous Poisson marked point process has been studied in the literature, but confusion has arisen as to the correct expression due to some technical intricacies. This note sets the record straight with regards to the variance of the sample mean. In addition, a central limit theorem in the general d-dimensional case is also established.

In this paper we derive limit theorems for the conditional distribution of X 1 given S n =s n as n→ ∞, where the X i are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables, S n =X 1+··· +X n , and s n /n converges or s n ≡ s is constant. We obtain convergence in total variation of PX1∣ S n/n=s to a distribution associated to that of X 1 and of PnX1∣ S n=s to a gamma distribution. The case of stable distributions (to which the method of associated distributions cannot be applied) is studied in detail.

Continuing the work in Bertoin (2011) we study the distribution of the maximal number X * k of offspring amongst all individuals in a critical Galton‒Watson process started with k ancestors, treating the case when the reproduction law has a regularly varying tail F̅ with index −α for α > 2 (and, hence, finite variance). We show that X * k suitably normalized converges in distribution to a Fréchet law with shape parameter α/2; this contrasts sharply with the case 1< α<2 when the variance is infinite. More generally, we obtain a weak limit theorem for the offspring sequence ranked in decreasing order, in terms of atoms of a certain doubly stochastic Poisson measure.

We study a multiclass Markovian queueing network with switchover across a set of many-server stations. New arrivals to each station follow a nonstationary Poisson process. Each job waiting in queue may, after some exponentially distributed patience time, switch over to another station or leave the network following a probabilistic and state-dependent mechanism. We analyze the performance of such networks under the many-server heavy-traffic limiting regimes, including the critically loaded quality-and-efficiency-driven (QED) regime, and the overloaded efficiency-driven (ED) regime. We also study the limits corresponding to mixing the underloaded quality-driven (QD) regime with the QED and ED regimes. We establish fluid and diffusion limits of the queue-length processes in all regimes. The fluid limits are characterized by ordinary differential equations. The diffusion limits are characterized by stochastic differential equations, with a piecewise-linear drift term and a constant (QED) or time-varying (ED) covariance matrix. We investigate the load balancing effect of switchover in the mixed regimes, demonstrating the migration of workload from overloaded stations to underloaded stations and quantifying the load balancing impact of switchover probabilities.

When the search algorithm QuickSelect compares keys during its execution in order to find a key of target rank, it must operate on the keys' representations or internal structures, which were ignored by the previous studies that quantified the execution cost for the algorithm in terms of the number of required key comparisons. In this paper we analyze running costs for the algorithm that take into account not only the number of key comparisons, but also the cost of each key comparison. We suppose that keys are represented as sequences of symbols generated by various probabilistic sources and that QuickSelect operates on individual symbols in order to find the target key. We identify limiting distributions for the costs, and derive integral and series expressions for the expectations of the limiting distributions. These expressions are used to recapture previously obtained results on the number of key comparisons required by the algorithm.

In the paper we consider the density functions of random variables that can be written as integrals of exponential functions of Gaussian random fields. In particular, we provide closed-form asymptotic bounds for the density functions and, under smoothness conditions, we derive exact tail approximations of the density functions.

Let X i ,i ∈ ℕ, be independent and identically distributed random variables with values in ℕ0. We transform (‘prune’) the sequence {X 1,…,X n },n∈ ℕ, of discrete random samples into a sequence {0,1,2,…,Y n }, n∈ ℕ, of contiguous random sets by replacing X n+1 with Y n +1 if X n+1 >Y n . We consider the asymptotic behaviour of Y n as n→∞. Applications include path growth in digital search trees and the number of tables in Pitman's Chinese restaurant process if the latter is conditioned on its limit value.

We consider the tree-reduced path of a symmetric random walk on ℤd . It is interesting to ask about the number of turns T n in the reduced path after n steps. This question arises from inverting the signatures of lattice paths: T n gives an upper bound of the number of terms in the signature needed to reconstruct a ‘random’ lattice path with n steps. We show that, when n is large, the mean and variance of T n in the asymptotic expansion have the same order as n, while the lower-order terms are O(1). We also obtain limit theorems for T n, including the large deviations principle, central limit theorem, and invariance principle. Similar techniques apply to other finite patterns in a lattice path.

A stationary Poisson cylinder process in the d-dimensional Euclidean space is composed of a stationary Poisson process of k-flats (0 ≤ k ≤ d−1) which are dilated by independent and identically distributed random compact cylinder bases taken from the corresponding (d−k)-dimensional orthogonal complement. If the second moment of the (d−k)-volume of the typical cylinder base exists, we prove asymptotic normality of the d-volume of the union set of Poisson cylinders that covers an expanding star-shaped domain ϱ W as ϱ grows unboundedly. Due to the long-range dependencies within the union set of cylinders, the variance of its d-volume in ϱ W increases asymptotically proportional to the (d+k) th power of ϱ. To obtain the exact asymptotic behaviour of this variance, we need a distinction between discrete and continuous directional distributions of the typical k-flat. A corresponding central limit theorem for the surface content is stated at the end.

We consider a class of multifractional processes related to Hermite polynomials. We show that these processes satisfy an invariance principle. To prove the main result of this paper, we use properties of the Hermite polynomials and the multiple Wiener integrals. Because of the multifractionality, we also need to deal with variations of the Hurst index by means of some uniform estimates.

The asymptotic behavior is studied for an interacting particle system that involves independent motion and random sampling. For a fixed sampling rate, the empirical process of the particle system converges to the Fleming-Viot process when the number of particles approaches ∞. If the sampling rate approaches 0 as the number of particles becomes large, the corresponding empirical process will converge to the deterministic flow of the motion. In the main results of this paper, we study the corresponding central limit theorems and large deviations. Both the Gaussian limits and the large deviations depend on the sampling scales explicitly.

In this paper we develop an asymptotic theory of aggregated linear processes, and determine in particular the limit distribution of a large class of linear and nonlinear functionals of such processes. Given a sample {Y 1 (N),…,Y n (N)} of the normalized N-fold aggregated process, we describe the limiting behavior of statistics T N,n = T N,n (Y 1 (N),…, Y n (N)) in both of the cases n/N(n) → 0 and N(n)/n → 0, assuming either a ‘limiting long- or short-memory’ condition on the underlying linear process.