Let x denote a vector of length q consisting of 0s and 1s. It can be interpreted as an ‘opinion’ comprised of a particular set of responses to a questionnaire consisting of q questions, each having {0, 1}-valued answers. Suppose that the questionnaire is answered by n individuals, thus providing n ‘opinions’. Probabilities of the answer 1 to each question can be, basically, arbitrary and different for different questions. Out of the 2q different opinions, what number, μn , would one expect to see in the sample? How many of these opinions, μn (k), will occur exactly k times? In this paper we give an asymptotic expression for μn / 2q and the limit for the ratios μn (k)/μn , when the number of questions q increases along with the sample size n so that n = λ2q , where λ is a constant. Let p(x ) denote the probability of opinion x . The key step in proving the asymptotic results as indicated is the asymptotic analysis of the joint behaviour of the intensities np(x ). For example, one of our results states that, under certain natural conditions, for any z > 0, ∑1 {np( x) > z} = d n z −u ,d n = o(2q ).

In this paper we study a general class of population genetic models where the total population is divided into a number of subpopulations or types. Migration between subpopulations is fast. Extending the results of Nordborg and Krone (2002) and Sagitov and Jagers (2005), we prove, as the total population size N tends to ∞, weak convergence of the joint ancestry of a given sample of haploid individuals in the Skorokhod topology towards Kingman's coalescent with a constant change of time scale c. Our framework includes age-structured models, geographically structured models, and combinations thereof. We also allow each individual to have offspring in several subpopulations, with general dependency structures between the number of offspring of various types. As a byproduct, explicit expressions for the coalescent effective population size N/c are obtained.

We establish heavy-traffic limits for nearly deterministic queues, such as the G/D/n many-server queue. Since waiting times before starting service in the G/D/n queue are equivalent to waiting times in an associated Gn /D/1 model, where the Gn interarrival times are the sum of n consecutive interarrival times in the original model, we focus on the Gn /D/1 model and the generalization to Gn /Gn /1, where ‘cyclic thinning’ is applied to both the arrival and service processes. We establish different limits in two cases: (i) when (1 − ρn )√n → β as n → ∞ and (ii) when (1 − ρn )n → β as n → ∞, where ρn is the traffic intensity in model n. The nearly deterministic feature leads to interesting nonstandard scaling.

It is shown that the sample paths of Poisson shot noise with heavy-tailed semiexponential distributions satisfy a large deviation principle with a rate function that is insensitive to the shot shape. This demonstrates that, on the scale of large deviations, paths to rare events do not depend on the shot shape.

In this paper we consider the scaled limit of a continuous-time random walk (CTRW) based on a Markov chain {X n , n ≥ 0} and two observables, τ(∙) and V(∙), corresponding to the renewal times and jump sizes. Assuming that these observables belong to the domains of attraction of some stable laws, we give sufficient conditions on the chain that guarantee the existence of the scaled limits for CTRWs. An application of the results to a process that arises in quantum transport theory is provided. The results obtained in this paper generalize earlier results contained in Becker-Kern, Meerschaert and Scheffler (2004) and Meerschaert and Scheffler (2008), and the recent results of Henry and Straka (2011) and Jurlewicz, Kern, Meerschaert and Scheffler (2010), where {X n , n ≥ 0} is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables.

We consider an insurance model, where the underlying point process is a Cox process. Using a martingale approach applied to diffusion processes, finite-time Lundberg inequalities are obtained. By change-of-measure techniques, Cramér–Lundberg approximations are derived.

This paper provides a simple proof for the fact that the hitting time to an infrequently visited subset for a one-dependent regenerative process converges weakly to an exponential distribution. Special cases are positive recurrent Harris chains and Harris processes. The paper further extends this class of limit theorems to ‘rewards’ that are cumulated to the hitting time of such a rare set.

We prove large deviation results for Minkowski sums S n of independent and identically distributed random compact sets where we assume that the summands have a regularly varying distribution and finite expectation. The main focus is on random convex compact sets. The results confirm the heavy-tailed large deviation heuristics: ‘large’ values of the sum are essentially due to the ‘largest’ summand. These results extend those in Mikosch, Pawlas and Samorodnitsky (2011) for generally nonconvex sets, where we assumed that the normalization of S n grows faster than n.

We consider the problem of estimating the probability that the maximum of a Gaussian process with negative mean and indexed by positive integers reaches a high level, say b. In great generality such a probability converges to 0 exponentially fast in a power of b. Under mild assumptions on the marginal distributions of the process and no assumption on the correlation structure, we develop an importance sampling procedure, called the target bridge sampler (TBS), which takes a polynomial (in b) number of function evaluations to achieve a small relative error. The procedure also yields samples of the underlying process conditioned on hitting b in finite time. In addition, we apply our method to the problem of estimating the tail of the maximum of a superposition of a large number, n, of independent Gaussian sources. In this situation TBS achieves a prescribed relative error with a bounded number of function evaluations as n ↗ ∞. A remarkable feature of TBS is that it is not based on exponential changes of measure. Our numerical experiments validate the performance indicated by our theoretical findings.

Radix Sort is a sorting algorithm based on analyzing digital data. We study the number of swaps made by Radix Select (a one-sided version of Radix Sort) to find an element with a randomly selected rank. This kind of grand average provides a smoothing over all individual distributions for specific fixed-order statistics. We give an exact analysis for the grand mean and an asymptotic analysis for the grand variance, obtained by poissonization, the Mellin transform, and depoissonization. The digital data model considered is the Bernoulli(p). The distributions involved in the swaps experience a phase change between the biased cases (p ≠ ½) and the unbiased case (p = ½). In the biased cases, the grand distribution for the number of swaps (when suitably scaled) converges to that of a perpetuity built from a two-point distribution. The tool for this proof is contraction in the Wasserstein metric space, and identifying the limit as the fixed-point solution of a distributional equation. In the unbiased case the same scaling for the number of swaps gives a limiting constant in probability.

Let X n be a sequence of integrable real random variables, adapted to a filtration (G n ). Define C n = √{(1 / n)∑k=1 n X k − E(X n+1 | G n )} and D n = √n{E(X n+1 | G n ) − Z}, where Z is the almost-sure limit of E(X n+1 | G n ) (assumed to exist). Conditions for (C n , D n ) → N(0, U) x N(0, V) stably are given, where U and V are certain random variables. In particular, under such conditions, we obtain √n{(1 / n)∑k=1 n X_k - Z} = C n + D n → N(0, U + V) stably. This central limit theorem has natural applications to Bayesian statistics and urn problems. The latter are investigated, by paying special attention to multicolor randomly reinforced urns.

Exact lower bounds on the exponential moments of min(y, X) and X 1{X < y} are provided given the first two moments of a random variable X. These bounds are useful in work on large deviation probabilities and nonuniform Berry-Esseen bounds, when the Cramér tilt transform may be employed. Asymptotic properties of these lower bounds are presented. Comparative advantages of the so-called Winsorization min(y, X) over the truncation X 1{X < y} are demonstrated. An application to option pricing is given.

We investigate the maximal number M k of offspring amongst all individuals in a critical Galton-Watson process started with k ancestors. We show that when the reproduction law has a regularly varying tail with index -α for 1 < α < 2, then k -1 M k converges in distribution to a Frechet law with shape parameter 1 and scale parameter depending only on α.

We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the asymptotic normality of N n , the number of records among the first n observations from a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, with general distribution F. In the case of normality we identify the centering and scaling sequences. Also, we characterize distributions for which the limit is not normal in terms of their discrete and continuous components.

We consider the level hitting times τy = inf{t ≥ 0 | X t = y} and the running maximum process M t = sup{X s | 0 ≤ s ≤ t} of a growth-collapse process (X t )t≥0, defined as a [0, ∞)-valued Markov process that grows linearly between random ‘collapse’ times at which downward jumps with state-dependent distributions occur. We show how the moments and the Laplace transform of τy can be determined in terms of the extended generator of X t and give a power series expansion of the reciprocal of Ee−sτ y . We prove asymptotic results for τy and M t : for example, if m(y) = Eτy is of rapid variation then M t / m -1(t) →w 1 as t → ∞, where m -1 is the inverse function of m, while if m(y) is of regular variation with index a ∈ (0, ∞) and X t is ergodic, then M t / m -1(t) converges weakly to a Fréchet distribution with exponent a. In several special cases we provide explicit formulae.

This paper is motivated by relations between association and independence of random variables. It is well known that, for real random variables, independence implies association in the sense of Esary, Proschan and Walkup (1967), while, for random vectors, this simple relationship breaks. We modify the notion of association in such a way that any vector-valued process with independent increments also has associated increments in the new sense - association between blocks. The new notion is quite natural and admits nice characterization for some classes of processes. In particular, using the covariance interpolation formula due to Houdré, Pérez-Abreu and Surgailis (1998), we show that within the class of multidimensional Gaussian processes, block association of increments is equivalent to supermodularity (in time) of the covariance functions. We also define corresponding versions of weak association, positive association, and negative association. It turns out that the central limit theorem for weakly associated random vectors due to Burton, Dabrowski and Dehling (1986) remains valid, if the weak association is relaxed to the weak association between blocks.

We consider a feed-forward network with a single-server station serving jobs with multiple levels of priority. The service discipline is preemptive in that the server always serves a job with the current highest level of priority. For this system with discontinuous dynamics, we establish the sample path large deviation principle using a weak convergence argument. In the special case where jobs have two different levels of priority, we also explicitly identify the exponential decay rate of the total population overflow probabilities by examining the geometry of the zero-level sets of the system Hamiltonians.

We consider a serialized coin-tossing leader election algorithm that proceeds in rounds until a winner is chosen, or all contestants are eliminated. The analysis allows for either biased or fair coins. We find the exact distribution for the duration of any fixed contestant; asymptotically, it turns out to be a geometric distribution. Rice's method (an analytic technique) shows that the moments of the duration contain oscillations, which we give explicitly for the mean and variance. We also use convergence in the Wasserstein metric space to show that the distribution of the total number of coin flips (among all participants), suitably normalized, approaches a normal limiting random variable.

In this paper we study the number of random records in an arbitrary split tree (or, equivalently, the number of random cuttings required to eliminate the tree). We show that a classical limit theorem for the convergence of sums of triangular arrays to infinitely divisible distributions can be used to determine the distribution of this number. After normalization the distributions are shown to be asymptotically weakly 1-stable. This work is a generalization of our earlier results for the random binary search tree in Holmgren (2010), which is one specific case of split trees. Other important examples of split trees include m-ary search trees, quad trees, medians of (2k + 1)-trees, simplex trees, tries, and digital search trees.

We analyze the mean cost of the partial match queries in random two-dimensional quadtrees. The method is based on fragmentation theory. The convergence is guaranteed by a coupling argument of Markov chains, whereas the value of the limit is computed as the fixed point of an integral equation.